Bo Nix — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 17.93 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 110, usage worth 21.3.

26 years old · 2 seasons of experience · 2024 draft class

Draft-room facts

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 328 points, 19.5 per game — 4,179 passing yards, 27.9 passing TDs, 368 rushing yards. That is QB3, 97 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 15.6 points per game to a ceiling of 26.3, with the median at 19.5. Boom rate 35%, bust rate 20%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

He goes at 110 on consensus and our board has him 97. We rank him 13 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.

The offense he plays in, 2026

Denver Broncos returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, oc. Bo Nix at quarterback, Sean Payton as head coach, Davis Webb calling it. The offense projects to 35 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 26.4 rushes.

In: Jaylen Waddle (wr1), Lil'Jordan Humphrey (wr6), Dane Key (wr7), Jonah Coleman (rb3).

The projected target split across the offense:

Our written view on this offense in 2026

How the volume number was reached: Same QB Bo Nix returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (36 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 35 att/g; New OC Davis Webb — pass rate and tempo may shift.

How the quarterback projection was built

Base case 283.7 PPR points, with a bear case of 149.3 and a bull case of 422.8, and a comp mean of 287.8. The model puts 40% probability on him beating this and 60% on falling short. Drawn from 20 comparable quarterback seasons.

Cross-check against the dynasty market: his production ranks in the 76th percentile and his value in the 66th, which the engine reads as in line. Players with a similar production-against-value gap saw dynasty value move -13.4% over the following year, across 81 cases — a dynasty signal, not a 2026 scoring one.

Offensive environment: DEN rates 22.9 against a league average of 23, 0.1 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved -6.3% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.8 elite seasons and 3.1 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 2 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Availability and volatility

That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · DEN · 17 games

His best game was Week 7 against NYG — 39.96 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 33-32. His worst was Week 10 against LV at 5.8, on 0 targets, final score 10-7. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 13 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 17.7; in the 4 decided by more, 18.8. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 21.3 points per game. He scored 17.93, 14% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

Production

Role

Efficiency

Scoring position

Who else ate

The offense threw it 613 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 17 games were blowouts, 16.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 24.76 in those and 17.66 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2024 · DEN · 17 games

His best game was Week 18 against KC — 33.54 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 38-0. His worst was Week 4 against NYJ at 6.7, on 0 targets, final score 10-9. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 7 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 15.1; in the 10 decided by more, 21.1. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 18.8 points per game. He scored 18.66, 2% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

Production

Role

Efficiency

Scoring position

Who else ate

The offense threw it 569 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Blowouts against close games

6 of his 17 games were blowouts, 40% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 21.16 in those and 15.11 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.