QB · DET · GWTTKB

Jared Goff — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 17.47 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 123.5, usage worth 16.9.

31 years old · 10 seasons of experience · 2016 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.
ADP 123.5
Consensus across 4 books, standard deviation 11.8, 25.4 picks between cheapest and priciest. Cheapest on espn, priciest on underdog.
SLEEPER125.3
ESPN139.5
YAHOO115.1
UNDERDOG110
CBS114.1
FFA109

Draft-room facts

Goes aroundRound 11, pick 4 in a 12-team draft
Positional rankQB16
Bye week6
ADP standard deviation11.8 picks

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 318 points, 18.9 per game — 4,572 passing yards, 33.9 passing TDs, 51 rushing yards. That is QB3, 109 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 15.1 points per game to a ceiling of 25.5, with the median at 18.9. Boom rate 35%, bust rate 20%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

He goes at 123.5 on consensus and our board has him 109. We rank him 14.5 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.

Our written view

Not a target in 1QB, but great in superflex/2-QB builds and as a stream given the dome schedule. Mid-10th value.

like · low conviction · 2026-06-05

The offense he plays in, 2026

Detroit Lions returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing oc. Jared Goff at quarterback, Dan Campbell as head coach, Drew Petzing calling it. The offense projects to 33.9 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 26.2 rushes.

In: Kendrick Law (wr4), Greg Dortch (wr5), Jackson Meeks (wr7), Isiah Pacheco (rb2). Out: Khalif Raymond (wr3), David Montgomery (rb2), Craig Reynolds (rb3).

The projected target split across the offense:

Amon-Ra St Brown25.8%
Jameson Williams15.9%
Sam LaPorta15.2%
Jahmyr Gibbs13.2%
Kendrick Law7%
Greg Dortch5.7%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

Key additions: Lions have a new OC in Drew Petzing (coming over from Arizona after the entire coaching staff was let go). Petzing is an interesting hire & did not have success in Arizona. But no doubt this offense can succeed at a high rate under him. Drafted WR Kendrick Law in the 5th round. Signed RB Isiah Pacheco from Chiefs in free agency. Signed C Cade Mays from panthers to 3 year deal. Traded for additional O line man Juice Scruggs in David Montgomery trade. Added TE Tyler Conklin behind TE Sam LaPorta

Key departures: WR Kalif Raymond left to join Ben Johnson with the Bears. Lost T Taylor Decker & G Graham Glasgow. RB David Montgomery was also traded to the Texans.

Notes: Gibbs + Williams + ARSB all dynasty assets. David Montgomery was traded to the Houston Texans & opens the opportunity for Gibbs to be completely featured in this offense. If he can stay healthy, he may be the RB1 in fantasy for years to come. Lions brought in Isiah Pacheco as RB2 from the Chiefs on a 1 year deal. He is not expected to play very much, but could be relevant with Gibbs injury. Khalif Raymond heads to Chicago Bears & Kendrick Law COULD emerge as a solid WR4 or WR3 in the long run. Isaac TeSlaa holds significant value if St Brown or Williams were injured. Williams & St Brown are both excellent assets. Goff remains a interesting aging QB that is a low end QB1 in fantasy with a VERY high weekly ceiling but no mobility upside. A key potential bit to keep an eye on is the status of Sam LaPorta follwing his season ending back injury in 2025. He needs to get back to 100% and prove it before we completely trust him. Tough injury for a TE or any football player.

How the volume number was reached: Same QB Jared Goff returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (34.1 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.9 att/g; New OC Drew Petzing — pass rate and tempo may shift.

How the quarterback projection was built

Base case 283.8 PPR points, with a bear case of 203.2 and a bull case of 351.9, and a comp mean of 281. The model puts 50% probability on him beating this and 50% on falling short. Drawn from 20 comparable quarterback seasons.

Comparable seasonWhat he actually scoredDistance
Philip Rivers 2013265.60.2
Tony Romo 2011279.90.3
Kirk Cousins 2015300.30.3
Jared Goff 2024297.10.4
Philip Rivers 2014284.50.4

Cross-check against the dynasty market: his production ranks in the 79th percentile and his value in the 31th, which the engine reads as well below production. Players with a similar production-against-value gap saw dynasty value move 1.2% over the following year, across 15 cases — a dynasty signal, not a 2026 scoring one.

Offensive environment: DET rates 26.2 against a league average of 23, 3.2 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season-1.6 · harder
Weeks 1–6-5.6 · harder
Weeks 12–17+2.9 · easier
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)-2.7 · harder

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

Read the full Jared Goff study →

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved +0.9% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.8 elite seasons and 3.1 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Dak Prescott202414.657%+21.1%
Baker Mayfield202421.545%0%
Tua Tagovailoa202416.543%-27.8%
Derek Carr202415.140%-53.1%
Joe Burrow202421.940%-0.3%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 2 lost it and 2 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

02,0004,0006,000202120222023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2020-06 to 2026-07. Down 2% across the series, peaking at 5,321.

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Drafted2016, round 1, pick 1 by LAR
CollegeCalifornia
Age at draft21
Height6′4″
Weight215 lb
40-yard dash4.82s
Vertical27″
Broad jump110″
3-cone7.17s
Shuttle4.47s

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game16.6
Week-to-week variation0.5
Boom rate19%
Bust rate15.2%
Games missed per season0.5
Injury historyThumb, Oblique, Knee
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score0.22

That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · DET · 17 games

His best game was Week 2 against CHI — 33.96 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 52-21. His worst was Week 17 against MIN at 2.08, on 0 targets, final score 10-23. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 6 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 18.6; in the 9 decided by more, 16.4. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 16.9 points per game. He scored 17.47, 3.4% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1GB13-2710.901-110%100%
2CHI52-2133.9601650%95%
3BAL38-3012.6804610%100%
4CLE34-1012.7200020%93%
5CIN37-2420.1202-230%100%
6KC17-3016.8201720%100%
7TB24-910.3402710%100%
9MIN24-2719.3600020%100%
10WAS44-2224.800030%87%
11PHI9-1612.101-110%100%
12NYG34-2717.1600020%100%
13GB24-3120.64012420%100%
14DAL44-3016.1602-210%100%
15LA34-4125.5200030%100%
16PIT24-2926.4601-130%100%
17MIN10-232.0803210%100%
18CHI19-1615.2400010%100%

Production

Carries19
Rushing yards45
Touchdowns34
Points per game17.47
Yards per carry2.37

Role

Snap share98.53%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game-0.85

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share1.1%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0.14

Who else ate

The offense threw it 582 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Amon-Ra St. Brown31.27%
Jameson Williams18.55%
Jahmyr Gibbs17.09%
Sam LaPorta8.91%
Kalif Raymond5.45%
David Montgomery5.27%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 24.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 23.83 in those and 18.64 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2024 · DET · 17 games

His best game was Week 15 against BUF — 41.06 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 42-48. His worst was Week 10 against HOU at 7.8, on 0 targets, final score 26-23. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 7 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 18.6; in the 8 decided by more, 19.7. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 16 points per game. He scored 19.09, 16.1% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1LA26-2011.3801710%100%
2TB16-208.7802500%99%
3ARI20-1314.5603620%100%
4SEA42-2927.1872-235.3%100%
6DAL47-925.103530%84%
7MIN31-2918.802-420%100%
8TEN52-1415.501130%88%
9GB24-149.603-210%100%
10HOU26-237.801220%100%
11JAX52-634.58042140%80%
12IND24-610.7602000%100%
13CHI23-2016.9401120%100%
14GB34-3122.0204730%100%
15BUF42-4841.06021350%100%
16CHI34-1725.3401-130%100%
17SF40-3425.8203-330%100%
18MIN31-99.2400010%100%

Production

Receptions1
Targets1
Receiving yards7
Carries35
Rushing yards56
Touchdowns38
Points per game19.09
Yards per target7
Catch rate100%
Yards per carry1.6

Role

Snap share97.12%
Target share0.31%
Air-yards share0.37%
WOPR0.007
RACR0.082

Efficiency

Average depth of target5
Yards after catch per reception2
Yards before catch per reception5
Total YAC2
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted135.4
Receiving EPA per game0.1
Rushing EPA per game-0.18

Scoring position

Red-zone targets1
Red-zone target share1%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share5.6%
Goal-line carry share5%
Expected receiving TDs0.32
Actual receiving TDs1
Receiving TD luck0.68
Expected rushing TDs1.04

Who else ate

The offense threw it 550 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Amon-Ra St. Brown27.17%
Jameson Williams17.53%
Sam LaPorta15.99%
Jahmyr Gibbs12.14%
Tim Patrick8.48%
David Montgomery7.32%

Blowouts against close games

6 of his 17 games were blowouts, 37.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 20.09 in those and 18.57 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2023 · DET · 17 games

His best game was Week 15 against DEN — 31.12 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 42-17. His worst was Week 14 against CHI at 4.44, on 0 targets, final score 13-28. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 6 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 16.4; in the 9 decided by more, 17.5. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 16.8 points per game. He scored 17.01, 0.9% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1KC21-2014.0205-110%100%
2SEA31-3722.9200030%100%
3ATL20-618.0205320%100%
4GB34-2011.4021010%100%
5CAR42-2427.4402040%95%
6TB20-622.4202320%100%
7BAL6-389.3600000%100%
8LV26-1412.6802-210%100%
10LAC41-3821.1203-220%100%
11CHI31-2613.7402320%100%
12GB22-2918.1803920%100%
13NO33-2816.3202-220%100%
14CHI13-284.4401010%100%
15DEN42-1731.1200050%100%
16MIN30-2414.2803010%100%
17DAL19-2010.8400010%100%
18MIN30-2020.800020%100%

Production

Carries32
Rushing yards21
Touchdowns32
Points per game17.01
Yards per carry0.66

Role

Snap share99.71%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game-1.29

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share4%
Goal-line carry share4.4%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs1.14

Who else ate

The offense threw it 605 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Amon-Ra St. Brown28.72%
Sam LaPorta21.02%
Jahmyr Gibbs12.43%
Josh Reynolds11.21%
Kalif Raymond7.71%
Jameson Williams7.36%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 23.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 22.64 in those and 16.43 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2022 · DET · 17 games

His best game was Week 4 against SEA — 33.22 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 45-48. His worst was Week 7 against DAL at 1.52, on 0 targets, final score 6-24. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 6 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 16.5; in the 8 decided by more, 17. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 16.1 points per game. He scored 16.72, 3.7% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1PHI35-3815.502920%100%
2WAS36-2726.0402-240%100%
3MIN24-2813.8802810%100%
4SEA45-4833.2201140%100%
5NE0-295.8603700%100%
7DAL6-241.5201400%100%
8MIA27-3118.6451312.7%100%
9GB15-911.3801-120%100%
10CHI31-3014.84041410%100%
11NYG31-186.504-100%100%
12BUF25-2817.600020%100%
13JAX40-1421.600020%97%
14MIN34-2326.102930%100%
15NYJ20-1714.0800010%100%
16CAR23-3725.7031530%100%
17CHI41-1022.401230%90%
18GB20-169.4602500%100%

Production

Receptions1
Targets1
Receiving yards5
Carries29
Rushing yards73
Touchdowns29
Points per game16.72
Yards per target5
Catch rate100%
Yards per carry2.52

Role

Snap share99.24%
Target share0.16%
Air-yards share-0.09%
WOPR0.002

Efficiency

Average depth of target0
Yards after catch per reception5
Yards before catch per reception0
Total YAC5
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted87.5
Receiving EPA per game-0.01
Rushing EPA per game-0.94

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share2.1%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0.11

Who else ate

The offense threw it 587 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Amon-Ra St. Brown26.21%
D'Andre Swift12.57%
Kalif Raymond11.49%
Josh Reynolds10.59%
D.J. Chark9.34%
T.J. Hockenson7.72%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 18.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 12.85 in those and 16.51 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2021 · DET · 14 games

His best game was Week 1 against SF — 28.92 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 33-41. His worst was Week 10 against PIT at 4.56, on 0 targets, final score 16-16. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14.1; in the 7 decided by more, 13.6. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 16.6 points per game. He scored 13.89, 16.4% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1SF33-4128.92031430%100%
2GB17-3518.44044620%100%
3BAL17-199.0801400%100%
4CHI14-2416.7603820%100%
5MIN17-196.1200000%100%
6CIN11-348.1801100%100%
7LA19-2811.0201310%100%
8PHI6-448.8800000%94%
10PIT16-164.5600000%100%
12CHI14-1612.8400020%100%
13MIN29-2719.9402130%100%
14DEN10-3811.6021010%100%
15ARI30-1220.6400030%98%
18GB37-3017.5200020%98%

Production

Carries17
Rushing yards87
Touchdowns19
Points per game13.89
Yards per carry5.12

Role

Snap share99.29%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game-0.99

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share3.6%
Goal-line carry share7.1%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0.57

Who else ate

The offense threw it 590 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Amon-Ra St. Brown21.48%
T.J. Hockenson15.16%
D'Andre Swift14.08%
Kalif Raymond12.82%
Josh Reynolds6.5%
Jamaal Williams5.05%

Blowouts against close games

5 of his 14 games were blowouts, 34.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 13.55 in those and 14.14 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2020 · LA · 15 games

His best game was Week 3 against BUF — 27.24 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 32-35. His worst was Week 12 against SF at 3.02, on 0 targets, final score 20-23. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14.5; in the 7 decided by more, 17.7. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 19 points per game. He scored 16, 18.4% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1DAL20-1710.5041500%100%
2PHI37-1923.98071330%100%
3BUF32-3527.2402430%100%
4NYG17-911.703-310%100%
5WAS30-1024.3603030%100%
6SF16-2414.92011020%100%
7CHI24-1016.904120%100%
8MIA17-2810.200010%100%
10SEA23-1610.4805400%100%
11TB27-2423.0401030%100%
12SF20-233.02051100%100%
13ARI38-2824.1404120%100%
14NE24-314.58041120%100%
15NYJ20-2315.2601920%100%
16SEA9-209.66072300%100%

Production

Carries51
Rushing yards99
Touchdowns24
Points per game16
Yards per carry1.94

Role

Snap share100%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game-0.4

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share6.7%
Goal-line carry share12.8%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs2.36

Who else ate

The offense threw it 590 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Robert Woods22.95%
Cooper Kupp22.06%
Josh Reynolds14.41%
Gerald Everett11.03%
Tyler Higbee10.68%
Malcolm Brown5.87%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 15 games were blowouts, 26.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 20.97 in those and 14.52 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

Ask the Coach about Jared Goff →
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