Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 19.89 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 94, usage worth 19.2.
26 years old · 5 seasons of experience · 2021 draft class
| SLEEPER | 96.5 |
| ESPN | 95.8 |
| YAHOO | 85.6 |
| UNDERDOG | 85.7 |
| CBS | 98.1 |
| FFA | 77 |
| Goes around | Round 8, pick 10 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | QB11 |
| Bye week | 7 |
| ADP standard deviation | 5.7 picks |
Our board has him at 342 points, 20.4 per game — 4,211 passing yards, 29.9 passing TDs, 364 rushing yards. That is QB3, 77 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 16.3 points per game to a ceiling of 27.2, with the median at 20.4. Boom rate 34%, bust rate 20%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 94 on consensus and our board has him 77. We rank him 17 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
Good round-8 QB value with few worries; still in double-dip range. Fine if you missed the mid-round tier.
like · medium conviction · 2026-06-05Jacksonville Jaguars returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing rb1. Trevor Lawrence at quarterback, Liam Coen as head coach, Grant Udinski calling it. The offense projects to 33.2 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 28.1 rushes.
In: CJ Williams (wr5), Josh Cameron (wr6), Bhaysul Tuten (rb1), Chris Rodriguez Jr. (rb2), DeeJay dallas (rb4), Nate Boerkircher (te2). Out: Travis Etienne Jr (rb1), Bhayshul Tuten (rb2), Johnny Mundt (te2).
The projected target split across the offense:
| Jakobi Meyers | 19.9% |
| Brian Thomas Jr | 18.8% |
| Parker Washington | 14.5% |
| Brenton Strange | 11% |
| Nate Boerkircher | 8.8% |
| Josh Cameron | 6.8% |
Key additions: Chris Rodriguez Jr. signed 2 year deal (previously with commanders). Nate Boerkircher TE 2nd round. 2 6th round WR Josh Cameron & CJ Williams.
Key departures: Travis Etienne Jr. left Jacksonville for Saints in free agency.
Notes: Travis Etienne Jr. has left the Jaguars in free agency for the Saints. Opening door for Bhayshul Tuten to operate as team lead back. Jaguars sign Chris Rodriguez Jr. to 2 year deal from Commanders. Jaguars draft Nate Boerkircher (TE) in 2nd round and should cause competition for Brenton Strange. Also drafted Josh Cameron & CJ Williams both WR in the 6th round. Travis Hunter is expected to play more CB than WR in 2026, but we will need confirmation through camp (very bad for dynasty value if true). Brian Thomas Jr looks to return to his rookie form as a true WR1 but Jakobi Meyers may operate as the teams 1A. Parker Washington has potential to be massive contributor in 2026 if BTJ struggles continue.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Trevor Lawrence returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.1 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.2 att/g.
Base case 283.4 PPR points, with a bear case of 223.7 and a bull case of 378.3, and a comp mean of 295.8. The model puts 40% probability on him beating this and 60% on falling short. Drawn from 20 comparable quarterback seasons.
| Comparable season | What he actually scored | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson 2017 | 320.1 | 0.4 |
| Cam Newton 2013 | 279.9 | 0.5 |
| Mitchell Trubisky 2018 | 202.8 | 0.5 |
| Deshaun Watson 2018 | 383.6 | 0.5 |
| Cam Newton 2017 | 282.6 | 0.5 |
Cross-check against the dynasty market: his production ranks in the 72th percentile and his value in the 62th, which the engine reads as in line. Players with a similar production-against-value gap saw dynasty value move -13.4% over the following year, across 81 cases — a dynasty signal, not a 2026 scoring one.
Offensive environment: JAX rates 22.4 against a league average of 23, 0.6 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +3.5 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | -8.7 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | +11.3 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +8.4 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Trevor Lawrence study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +16.8% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.8 elite seasons and 3.1 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 2023 | 17.1 | 66% | +4.7% |
| Kyler Murray | 2023 | 18.3 | 60% | +4% |
| Joe Burrow | 2022 | 21.9 | 59% | +6.7% |
| Daniel Jones | 2024 | 13.5 | 56% | +104.1% |
| Kyler Murray | 2024 | 17.5 | 52% | -24.4% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 4 gained value, 1 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2021, round 1, pick 1 by JAX |
| College | Clemson |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Height | 6′5″ |
| Weight | 213 lb |
| Career PPR per game | 16.7 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.5 |
| Boom rate | 19.4% |
| Bust rate | 12.9% |
| Games missed per season | 0.4 |
| Injury history | right Shoulder, Left Shoulder |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.45 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 15 against NYJ — 44.3 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 48-20. His worst was Week 3 against HOU at 7.78, on 0 targets, final score 17-10. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 7 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 17.3; in the 8 decided by more, 22.8. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 19.2 points per game. He scored 19.89, 3.6% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | 26-10 | 10.32 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | CIN | 27-31 | 19.24 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | HOU | 17-10 | 7.78 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | SF | 26-21 | 11.66 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | KC | 31-28 | 26.24 | 0 | 10 | 54 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | SEA | 12-20 | 19.22 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | LA | 7-35 | 17.64 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | LV | 30-29 | 21.2 | 0 | 9 | 24 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | HOU | 29-36 | 9.82 | 0 | 5 | 35 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | LAC | 35-6 | 15.02 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 89% |
| 12 | ARI | 27-24 | 17.14 | 0 | 5 | 29 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | TEN | 25-3 | 21.66 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 2 | 0% | 95% |
| 14 | IND | 36-19 | 19.36 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 2 | 0% | 91% |
| 15 | NYJ | 48-20 | 44.3 | 0 | 5 | 51 | 6 | 0% | 87% |
| 16 | DEN | 34-20 | 31.16 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | IND | 23-17 | 23.12 | 0 | 8 | 26 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 18 | TEN | 41-7 | 23.3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 82% |
| Carries | 82 |
| Rushing yards | 359 |
| Touchdowns | 38 |
| Points per game | 19.89 |
| Yards per carry | 4.38 |
| Snap share | 96.71% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 1.52 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 22.5% |
| Goal-line carry share | 33.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 5.6 |
The offense threw it 563 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Parker Washington | 18.92% |
| Brian Thomas | 18.13% |
| Jakobi Meyers | 12.15% |
| Brenton Strange | 11.95% |
| Travis Etienne | 10.36% |
| Dyami Brown | 7.37% |
6 of his 17 games were blowouts, 41.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 23.55 in those and 17.27 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 8 against GB — 23.32 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 27-30. His worst was Week 13 against HOU at 0.24, on 0 targets, final score 20-23. Across 10 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14.8; in the 3 decided by more, 13.8. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 14.7 points per game. He scored 14.52, 1.2% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | 17-20 | 11.28 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | CLE | 13-18 | 13.3 | 0 | 2 | 45 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | BUF | 10-47 | 9.42 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 80% |
| 4 | HOU | 20-24 | 14.76 | -5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | IND | 37-34 | 21.24 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | CHI | 16-35 | 17.06 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 2 | 0% | 95% |
| 7 | NE | 32-16 | 15.02 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | GB | 27-30 | 23.32 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | PHI | 23-28 | 19.56 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | HOU | 20-23 | 0.24 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 27% |
| Receiving yards | -5 |
| Carries | 26 |
| Rushing yards | 119 |
| Touchdowns | 14 |
| Points per game | 14.52 |
| Yards per carry | 4.58 |
| Snap share | 90.2% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Average depth of target | 0 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 0 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 0 |
| Total YAC | -5 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Passer rating when targeted | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.84 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 5.7% |
| Goal-line carry share | 13.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.41 |
The offense threw it 546 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Brian Thomas | 25.48% |
| Evan Engram | 12.26% |
| Brenton Strange | 10.15% |
| Travis Etienne | 9.96% |
| Parker Washington | 9.77% |
| Christian Kirk | 9% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 9 | 0 | 16.11 | — | 0% |
| Mac Jones | 1 | 0 | 0.24 | — | 0% |
2 of his 10 games were blowouts, 18.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 13.24 in those and 14.81 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 11 against TEN — 32.18 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 34-14. His worst was Week 10 against SF at 2.1, on 0 targets, final score 3-34. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 18; in the 9 decided by more, 15.1. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 18.3 points per game. He scored 16.41, 10.1% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | 31-21 | 17.74 | 0 | 7 | 21 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | KC | 9-17 | 9.24 | 0 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | HOU | 17-37 | 14.36 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 0% | 93% |
| 4 | ATL | 23-7 | 16.48 | 0 | 8 | 42 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | BUF | 25-20 | 15.7 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | IND | 37-20 | 14.74 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 2 | 0% | 95% |
| 7 | NO | 31-24 | 18.06 | 0 | 8 | 59 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | PIT | 20-10 | 14.68 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | SF | 3-34 | 2.1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 95% |
| 11 | TEN | 34-14 | 32.18 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 89% |
| 12 | HOU | 24-21 | 24.56 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | CIN | 31-34 | 25.12 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 77% |
| 14 | CLE | 27-31 | 17.38 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | BAL | 7-23 | 14.66 | 0 | 4 | 41 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | TB | 12-30 | 9.34 | 0 | 4 | 29 | 1 | 0% | 68% |
| 18 | TEN | 20-28 | 16.2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| Carries | 70 |
| Rushing yards | 339 |
| Touchdowns | 25 |
| Points per game | 16.41 |
| Yards per carry | 4.84 |
| Snap share | 94.81% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.09 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 18.8% |
| Goal-line carry share | 26.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 2.87 |
The offense threw it 619 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Evan Engram | 23.56% |
| Calvin Ridley | 22.41% |
| Christian Kirk | 14% |
| Travis Etienne | 12.03% |
| Zay Jones | 10.54% |
| Jamal Agnew | 3.46% |
5 of his 16 games were blowouts, 27.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 14.54 in those and 18.04 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 14 against TEN — 33.42 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 36-22. His worst was Week 17 against HOU at 4.48, on 0 targets, final score 31-3. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 6 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 15.8; in the 7 decided by more, 19.6. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 17.7 points per game. He scored 17.39, 1.7% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS | 22-28 | 13.4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | IND | 24-0 | 18.5 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | LAC | 38-10 | 25.18 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 0% | 99% |
| 4 | PHI | 21-29 | 5.66 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | HOU | 6-13 | 10.34 | 0 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | IND | 27-34 | 24.9 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | NYG | 17-23 | 18.7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | DEN | 17-21 | 6.82 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | LV | 27-20 | 16.7 | 0 | 6 | 53 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | KC | 17-27 | 20.96 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | BAL | 28-27 | 24.94 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | DET | 14-40 | 16.36 | 0 | 4 | 32 | 1 | 0% | 93% |
| 14 | TEN | 36-22 | 33.42 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | DAL | 40-34 | 26.82 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | NYJ | 19-3 | 18.26 | 0 | 7 | 51 | 1 | 0% | 96% |
| 17 | HOU | 31-3 | 4.48 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 70% |
| 18 | TEN | 20-16 | 10.18 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| Carries | 62 |
| Rushing yards | 291 |
| Touchdowns | 30 |
| Points per game | 17.39 |
| Yards per carry | 4.69 |
| Snap share | 97.53% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.31 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 15.1% |
| Goal-line carry share | 19.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 3.22 |
The offense threw it 596 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Christian Kirk | 23.17% |
| Zay Jones | 21.08% |
| Evan Engram | 17.07% |
| Marvin Jones | 14.11% |
| Travis Etienne | 7.84% |
| Jamal Agnew | 5.23% |
4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 21.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 16.13 in those and 15.85 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 5 against TEN — 21.72 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 19-37. His worst was Week 14 against TEN at 1.04, on 0 targets, final score 0-20. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13.1; in the 11 decided by more, 11. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 19 points per game. He scored 11.71, 38.3% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | 21-37 | 19.08 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | DEN | 13-23 | 6.82 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | ARI | 19-31 | 7.46 | 0 | 6 | 27 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | CIN | 21-24 | 17.76 | 0 | 8 | 36 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | TEN | 19-37 | 21.72 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | MIA | 23-20 | 15.86 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | SEA | 7-31 | 12.62 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | BUF | 9-6 | 5.12 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 90% |
| 10 | IND | 17-23 | 9.78 | 0 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | SF | 10-30 | 8.62 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | ATL | 14-21 | 17.02 | 0 | 5 | 39 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | LA | 7-37 | 6.8 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 98% |
| 14 | TEN | 0-20 | 1.04 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | HOU | 16-30 | 10.5 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | NYJ | 21-26 | 12.9 | 0 | 6 | 37 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | NE | 10-50 | 7.32 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 18 | IND | 26-11 | 18.62 | 0 | 10 | 17 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| Carries | 73 |
| Rushing yards | 334 |
| Touchdowns | 14 |
| Points per game | 11.71 |
| Yards per carry | 4.58 |
| Snap share | 99.29% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.67 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 20% |
| Goal-line carry share | 28.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 2.99 |
The offense threw it 604 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Marvin Jones | 20.58% |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 17.15% |
| Laquon Treadwell | 8.75% |
| James Robinson | 7.89% |
| Dan Arnold | 7.03% |
| Jamal Agnew | 6.69% |
6 of his 17 games were blowouts, 29.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.69 in those and 13.07 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Trevor Lawrence →