QB · LV · GWTTKB

Kirk Cousins — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 10.35 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 169.9, usage worth 13.8.

37 years old · 14 seasons of experience · 2012 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.
ADP 169.9
Consensus across 1 books, 0 picks between cheapest and priciest. Cheapest on underdog, priciest on espn.
ESPN169.9
UNDERDOG215.1
FFA510

Draft-room facts

Goes aroundRound 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft
Positional rankQB34

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 77.6 points, 4.6 per game — 1,301 passing yards, 7.5 passing TDs, 7 rushing yards. That is QB5, 351 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 3.6 points per game to a ceiling of 6.6, with the median at 4.6. Boom rate 42%, bust rate 20%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

He goes at 169.9 on consensus and our board has him 351. We rank him 181.1 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.

The offense he plays in, 2026

Las Vegas Raiders returns 2 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, wr1, hc, oc. Kirk Cousins at quarterback, Klint Kubiak as head coach, Andrew Janocko calling it. The offense projects to 32.2 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 24.8 rushes.

In: Kirk Cousins (qb), Fernando Mendoza (qb2), Jalen Nailor (wr1), Malik Benson (wr5), Dareke Young (wr6), Philip Dorsett II (wr7), Mike Washington Jr (rb2), Chris Collier (rb4). Out: Geno Smith (qb), Jach Bech (wr2), Tyler Lockett (wr3), Raheem Mostert (rb2), Zamir White (rb3).

The projected target split across the offense:

Brock Bowers21%
Tre Tucker14%
Ashton Jeanty12.7%
Michael Mayer9.7%
Dont'e Thornton Jr.7.7%
Jack Bech7.4%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

What the offense looks like: If this offense can click, the top players in this offense will all have their values increase significantly. There is talent here: Bowers, Jeanty, Mendoza. But this WR corp is lacking, however Tucker, Nailor, Bech, and even Thornton Jr have a huge opportunity to step up.

Key additions: Drafted Fernando Mendoza 1 overall. Kirk Cousins signed in free agency on vet minimum deal. C Tyler Linderbaum landed HUGE deal coming over from Baltimore (top center in NFL). WR Jalen Nailor landed a 3 year deal & COULD be raiders WR1 IF no other veterans are brought in.

Key departures: QB Geno Smith was traded to the Jets.

Notes: Mendoza 1.01 franchise QB of the future. Raiders also signed Kirk Cousins & he is assumed week 1 starter. Mendoza may not play early half of season unless beats Cousins out in camp. Raiders spent big in free agency and O line should be better but still bad. Buy Bowers long-term. Monitor Mendoza development. Raiders will probably sign a veteran WR who could operate as WR1, either Jauan Jennings or Diggs or Tyreek Hill or Keenan Allen potentially. Tyreek Hill also an option. Mike Washington Jr will back up Ashton Jeanty. New HC Klint Kubiak former Seahawks OC should also boost offense creativity.

How the volume number was reached: New QB Kirk Cousins, avg 29.6 att/g over 2025,2024; Regressed 65% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.1 att/g; New OC Andrew Janocko — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Klint Kubiak.

How the quarterback projection was built

Base case 88 PPR points, with a bear case of 1.8 and a bull case of 202.8, and a comp mean of 99. The model puts 35% probability on him beating this and 65% on falling short. Drawn from 20 comparable quarterback seasons.

Comparable seasonWhat he actually scoredDistance
Mac Jones 2024130.90.3
Blaine Gabbert 201212.40.4
Josh McCown 2014132.20.4
Jake Locker 201299.70.4
Chad Henne 2012161.30.5

Cross-check against the dynasty market: his production ranks in the 0th percentile and his value in the 3th, which the engine reads as in line. Players with a similar production-against-value gap saw dynasty value move -13.4% over the following year, across 81 cases — a dynasty signal, not a 2026 scoring one.

Offensive environment: LV rates 19.6 against a league average of 23, 3.4 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season-5 · harder
Weeks 1–6-9.6 · harder
Weeks 12–17-3.6 · harder
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)+3.6 · easier

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved +10.9% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.8 elite seasons and 3.1 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Matthew Stafford202413.472%+40.2%
Derek Carr202415.168%-53.1%
Aaron Rodgers202415.166%+26.4%
Tua Tagovailoa202416.564%-27.8%
Derek Carr202314.263%+3.5%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 2 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

02,0004,000202120222023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2020-06 to 2026-07. Down 60% across the series, peaking at 4,726.

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Height6′3″
Weight214 lb
40-yard dash4.84s
Vertical28.5″
Broad jump109″
3-cone7.05s
Shuttle4.5s

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game16.7
Week-to-week variation0.5
Boom rate15.9%
Bust rate14.3%
Games missed per season0
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score0.53

The record, season by season

2025 · ATL · 10 games

His best game was Week 15 against TB — 26.92 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 29-28. His worst was Week 3 against CAR at 1.16, on 0 targets, final score 0-30. Across 10 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13.1; in the 4 decided by more, 6.3. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 13.8 points per game. He scored 10.35, 24.8% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
3CAR0-301.1600000%23%
8MIA10-347.1202200%100%
11CAR27-302.1201200%38%
12NO24-1014.4602520%100%
13NYJ24-2713.3600010%100%
14SEA9-372.4800000%100%
15TB29-2826.9200030%100%
16ARI26-1917.5805-330%100%
17LA27-249.1401110%100%
18NO19-179.203010%100%

Production

Carries14
Rushing yards7
Touchdowns11
Points per game10.35
Yards per carry0.5

Role

Snap share86.1%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game-0.25

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share1.4%
Goal-line carry share4.3%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0.39

Who else ate

The offense threw it 545 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Kyle Pitts22.78%
Drake London21.62%
Bijan Robinson19.88%
Darnell Mooney13.9%
David Sills6.95%
Tyler Allgeier3.09%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Kirk Cousins8012.530%
Michael Penix201.640%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 10 games were blowouts, 10.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.59 in those and 13.05 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2024 · ATL · 14 games

His best game was Week 5 against TB — 34.36 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 36-30. His worst was Week 13 against LAC at 2.1, on 0 targets, final score 13-17. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14.2; in the 4 decided by more, 8.6. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 15.8 points per game. He scored 12.59, 20.2% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1PIT10-186.201010%100%
2PHI22-2117.5404-120%100%
3KC17-2211.101-110%100%
4NO26-247.5200000%100%
5TB36-3034.3600040%100%
6CAR38-2012.504-510%100%
7SEA14-347.1801-110%90%
8TB31-2628.64031640%100%
9DAL27-2117.7804-1130%100%
10NO17-2010.2400000%100%
11DEN6-384.9201000%78%
13LAC13-172.101300%100%
14MIN21-429.7600000%100%
15LV15-96.4803010%100%

Production

Carries23
Rushing yards0
Touchdowns18
Points per game12.59
Yards per carry0

Role

Snap share97.71%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game-1.2

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0

Who else ate

The offense threw it 559 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Drake London29.31%
Darnell Mooney19.67%
Ray-Ray McCloud16.14%
Kyle Pitts13.73%
Bijan Robinson13.36%
Tyler Allgeier2.41%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 14 games were blowouts, 19.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.59 in those and 14.2 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2023 · MIN · 8 games

His best game was Week 2 against PHI — 28.56 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 28-34. His worst was Week 6 against CHI at 8.74, on 0 targets, final score 19-13. Across 8 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 0 times.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 17.9 points per game. He scored 18.72, 4.7% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1TB17-2016.4603720%100%
2PHI28-3428.5600040%100%
3LAC24-2825.68011030%100%
4CAR21-139.5601020%100%
5KC20-2719.8603520%100%
6CHI19-138.7402-510%100%
7SF22-1721.0202-120%100%
8GB24-1019.8602920%85%

Production

Carries14
Rushing yards25
Touchdowns18
Points per game18.72
Yards per carry1.79

Role

Snap share98.13%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game0.21

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share5.8%
Goal-line carry share6.7%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0.59

Who else ate

The offense threw it 631 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

T.J. Hockenson21.27%
Jordan Addison18.09%
Justin Jefferson16.75%
K.J. Osborn12.56%
Brandon Powell7.37%
Alexander Mattison7.37%

2022 · MIN · 17 games

His best game was Week 15 against IND — 32.4 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 39-36. His worst was Week 11 against DAL at 2.2, on 0 targets, final score 3-40. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 6 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 19.6; in the 6 decided by more, 12.7. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 17.6 points per game. He scored 17.15, 0% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1GB23-719.0800020%100%
2PHI7-248.84022010%100%
3DET28-2418.301-120%100%
4NO28-2512.9200010%100%
5CHI29-2222.2404420%100%
6MIA24-1616.502-520%100%
8ARI34-2623.48042230%100%
9WAS20-1716.402-220%98%
10BUF33-3015.48061210%100%
11DAL3-402.200000%79%
12NE33-2621.8601-130%100%
13NYJ27-2211.8203910%100%
14DET23-342500020%100%
15IND39-3632.402040%100%
16NYG27-2424.1601230%100%
17GB17-417.9033710%86%
18CHI29-131300010%54%

Production

Carries31
Rushing yards97
Touchdowns31
Points per game17.15
Yards per carry3.13

Role

Snap share95.12%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game0.07

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share11%
Goal-line carry share13.8%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs2

Who else ate

The offense threw it 670 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Justin Jefferson29.25%
Adam Thielen17.01%
K.J. Osborn14.31%
T.J. Hockenson13.67%
Dalvin Cook8.9%
Irv Smith5.72%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 6.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.31 in those and 19.6 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2021 · MIN · 16 games

His best game was Week 6 against CAR — 28.52 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 34-28. His worst was Week 4 against CLE at 10.12, on 0 targets, final score 7-14. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 8 times and came in under 8 points 0 times.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 17 points per game. He scored 18.77, 10.7% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1CIN24-2722.0400020%100%
2ARI33-3425.26023530%100%
3SEA30-1725.1201230%100%
4CLE7-1410.1202010%100%
5DET19-1713.401410%100%
6CAR34-2828.52021630%100%
8DAL16-2013.16031810%100%
9BAL31-3421.5801130%100%
10LAC27-2017.4604-320%100%
11GB34-3125.2402-430%100%
12SF26-3415.5200020%100%
13DET27-2920.202620%100%
14PIT36-2814.04021420%100%
15CHI17-910.48021020%100%
16LA23-3016.3041710%100%
18CHI31-1721.901-130%100%

Production

Carries29
Rushing yards115
Touchdowns34
Points per game18.77
Yards per carry3.97

Role

Snap share100%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game-0.28

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share3.5%
Goal-line carry share4.5%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0.62

Who else ate

The offense threw it 604 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Justin Jefferson29.87%
Adam Thielen16.99%
Tyler Conklin15.56%
K.J. Osborn14.67%
Dalvin Cook8.77%
Alexander Mattison6.98%

2020 · MIN · 16 games

His best game was Week 17 against DET — 34.3 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 37-35. His worst was Week 2 against IND at -1.48, on 0 targets, final score 11-28. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 8 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 20.1; in the 6 decided by more, 17.6. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 16.6 points per game. He scored 19.14, 15.1% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1GB34-4321.76043420%100%
2IND11-28-1.4800000%100%
3TEN30-3119.44021430%100%
4HOU31-2314.904510%100%
5SEA26-2714.1601220%100%
6ATL23-4023.7200030%100%
8GB28-2210.400010%100%
9DET34-2020.800030%100%
10CHI19-1317.5801-120%99%
11DAL28-3122.9601430%98%
12CAR28-2726.18031930%100%
13JAX27-2421.4031230%100%
14TB14-2617.1054110%100%
15CHI27-3319.34032520%100%
16NO33-5223.6400030%100%
17DET37-3534.305140%100%

Production

Carries32
Rushing yards156
Touchdowns36
Points per game19.14
Yards per carry4.88

Role

Snap share99.81%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game0.04

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share4.8%
Goal-line carry share2.7%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0.86

Who else ate

The offense threw it 516 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Justin Jefferson26.48%
Adam Thielen22.88%
Dalvin Cook11.44%
Irv Smith9.11%
Kyle Rudolph7.84%
Chad Beebe6.36%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 16 games were blowouts, 15% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 15.29 in those and 20.07 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

Ask the Coach about Kirk Cousins →
All player profiles · 2026 rankings · Research findings · Methodology
GWTTKB publishes research and education. Nothing here is betting advice.