Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 18.72 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 81.3, usage worth 19.8.
24 years old · 2 seasons of experience · 2024 draft class
| SLEEPER | 75.7 |
| ESPN | 92.5 |
| YAHOO | 69.9 |
| UNDERDOG | 73.1 |
| CBS | 87.1 |
| FFA | 68 |
| Goes around | Round 7, pick 9 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | QB8 |
| Bye week | 10 |
| ADP standard deviation | 10.3 picks |
Our board has him at 346.4 points, 20.6 per game — 4,366 passing yards, 30.9 passing TDs, 384 rushing yards. That is QB2, 68 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 16.5 points per game to a ceiling of 27.6, with the median at 20.6. Boom rate 34%, bust rate 20%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 81.3 on consensus and our board has him 68. We rank him 13.3 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
Fine in the 5-7 QB range; Ben Johnson neutralizes most of the schedule concern. Ranking within that tier is preference.
neutral · medium conviction · 2026-06-05Chicago Bears returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing oc. Caleb Williams at quarterback, Ben Johnson as head coach, Press Taylor calling it. The offense projects to 33.6 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 28.4 rushes.
In: Kalif Raymond (wr3), Zavion Thomas (wr5), JP Richardson (wr6), Alexander Maurice (wr7), Sam Roush (te2). Out: DJ Moore (wr2), Luther Burden (wr3), Olamide Zaccheaus (wr4), Travis Homer (rb3), Cole Kmet (te2).
The projected target split across the offense:
| Rome Odunze | 18.5% |
| Colston Loveland | 16.8% |
| Luther Burden III | 10.8% |
| D'Andre Swift | 9.4% |
| Zavion Thomas | 8.9% |
| Sam Roush | 7.9% |
What the offense looks like: Whoever emerges as Caleb Williams primary target will be an ELITE fantasy asset to own. We still do not know with 100% certainy who that will be. You may think it would be Rome Odunze, but Luther Burden III has shown a TON of promise. There is room for both of these young WR to eat, but Colston Loveland may be the real beneficiary of the additional targets. he looks like a true star. RB room is likely a 1A/1B for the foreseable future. Both Swift and Monangai see their value skyrocket if the other gets hurt.
Key additions: Bears added WR Kalif Raymond from Lions (expected to operate as WR3 because Ben Johnson loves him). Drafted Rookie WR Zavion Thomas 3rd round. Drafted TE Sam Roush RD 3.
Key departures: Biggest 2 losses C Drew Dalman retired unexpectedly & LT Ozzy Trapilo suffered serious knee injury sidelining him the entire 2026 season. WR DJ Moore traded to Bills for a 2nd round pick. WR Olamide Zaccheaus also left Chicago this offseason. Opening up a massive target opportunity for Bears pass catchers.
Notes: Strong disagreement who the WR1 will be in 2026. Odunze looked fantastic early in 2025, but Burden stole the show in the back half of the season. Loveland has emerged as Williams favorite target. Caleb Williams is set to have an excellent season again. RB room looks to remain the same with Swift 1A & Monangai 1B. Bears drafted TE Sam Roush in the 3rd round. Cole Kmet may be traded. Highly relevant fantasty offense.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Caleb Williams returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.7 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.6 att/g; New OC Press Taylor — pass rate and tempo may shift.
Base case 272.4 PPR points, with a bear case of 144.5 and a bull case of 434.1, and a comp mean of 275.3. The model puts 35% probability on him beating this and 65% on falling short. Drawn from 20 comparable quarterback seasons.
| Comparable season | What he actually scored | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck 2013 | 392.1 | 0.2 |
| Aaron Rodgers 2015 | 458.4 | 0.3 |
| Matt Ryan 2011 | 347.6 | 0.4 |
| Aaron Rodgers 2019 | 432.6 | 0.4 |
| Andy Dalton 2013 | 233.2 | 0.5 |
Cross-check against the dynasty market: his production ranks in the 59th percentile and his value in the 83th, which the engine reads as above production. Players with a similar production-against-value gap saw dynasty value move -19.6% over the following year, across 24 cases — a dynasty signal, not a 2026 scoring one.
Offensive environment: CHI rates 24.9 against a league average of 23, 1.9 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -3.3 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -8 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | +1.4 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -4.5 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Caleb Williams study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +21.6% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.8 elite seasons and 3.1 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 2024 | 18.7 | 55% | +9.5% |
| C.J. Stroud | 2024 | 13 | 55% | -11.4% |
| Zach Wilson | 2021 | 11.7 | 51% | -46.4% |
| Zach Wilson | 2022 | 11 | 50% | -21.1% |
| Sam Howell | 2023 | 15.1 | 49% | -21.9% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 4 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2024, round 1, pick 1 by CHI |
| College | USC |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′1″ |
| Weight | 214 lb |
| Career PPR per game | 16.8 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.5 |
| Boom rate | 17.9% |
| Bust rate | 14.3% |
| Games missed per season | 0 |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.68 |
His best game was Week 9 against CIN — 38.7 PPR on 2 targets and a 5.9% target share, in a game that finished 47-42. His worst was Week 7 against NO at 4.68, on 0 targets, final score 26-14. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 7 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 20.7; in the 6 decided by more, 15.2. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 19.8 points per game. He scored 18.72, 5% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 24-27 | 24.2 | 0 | 6 | 58 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | DET | 21-52 | 16.98 | 0 | 5 | 27 | 2 | 0% | 84% |
| 3 | DAL | 31-14 | 29.12 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | LV | 25-24 | 11.78 | 0 | 8 | 13 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | WAS | 25-24 | 19.88 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | NO | 26-14 | 4.68 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | BAL | 16-30 | 11.8 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | CIN | 47-42 | 38.7 | 22 | 5 | 53 | 4 | 5.9% | 100% |
| 10 | NYG | 24-20 | 25.1 | 0 | 8 | 63 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | MIN | 19-17 | 10.32 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | PIT | 31-28 | 21.66 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | PHI | 24-15 | 9.46 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 14 | GB | 21-28 | 14.94 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | CLE | 31-3 | 18.98 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | GB | 22-16 | 21 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | SF | 38-42 | 23 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 18 | DET | 16-19 | 16.58 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| Receptions | 2 |
| Targets | 2 |
| Receiving yards | 22 |
| Carries | 77 |
| Rushing yards | 383 |
| Touchdowns | 31 |
| Points per game | 18.72 |
| Yards per target | 11 |
| Catch rate | 100% |
| Yards per carry | 4.97 |
| Snap share | 99.06% |
| Target share | 0.35% |
| Air-yards share | -0.06% |
| WOPR | 0.005 |
| Average depth of target | -1.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 12.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -1.5 |
| Total YAC | 25 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 152.1 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.31 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.32 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 1.3% |
| End-zone target share | 2.9% |
| Red-zone carry share | 15.1% |
| Goal-line carry share | 6.9% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.51 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.49 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.78 |
The offense threw it 574 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Rome Odunze | 16.98% |
| D.J. Moore | 16.04% |
| Colston Loveland | 15.47% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 12.26% |
| Luther Burden III | 11.32% |
| D'Andre Swift | 9.06% |
3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 20.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 21.69 in those and 20.65 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 6 against JAX — 28.64 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 35-16. His worst was Week 10 against NE at 6.3, on 0 targets, final score 3-19. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14; in the 7 decided by more, 16.3. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 18.5 points per game. He scored 14.97, 19% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN | 24-17 | 7.22 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | HOU | 13-19 | 7.36 | 0 | 5 | 44 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | IND | 16-21 | 17.32 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | LA | 24-18 | 11.48 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | CAR | 36-10 | 23.56 | 0 | 5 | 34 | 2 | 0% | 96% |
| 6 | JAX | 35-16 | 28.64 | 0 | 4 | 56 | 4 | 0% | 95% |
| 8 | WAS | 15-18 | 9.94 | 0 | 9 | 47 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | ARI | 9-29 | 9.18 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | NE | 3-19 | 6.3 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | GB | 19-20 | 16.24 | 0 | 9 | 70 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | MIN | 27-30 | 26.9 | 0 | 6 | 33 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | DET | 20-23 | 26.14 | 0 | 4 | 39 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 14 | SF | 13-38 | 14.06 | 0 | 4 | 27 | 2 | 0% | 92% |
| 15 | MIN | 12-30 | 9.94 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 96% |
| 16 | DET | 17-34 | 22.76 | 0 | 6 | 34 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | SEA | 3-6 | 6.58 | 0 | 5 | 37 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 18 | GB | 24-22 | 10.92 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| Carries | 81 |
| Rushing yards | 489 |
| Touchdowns | 20 |
| Points per game | 14.97 |
| Yards per carry | 6.04 |
| Snap share | 98.76% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.68 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 14% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.31 |
The offense threw it 566 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| D.J. Moore | 26.62% |
| Keenan Allen | 23% |
| Rome Odunze | 19.2% |
| Cole Kmet | 10.46% |
| D'Andre Swift | 9.89% |
| Roschon Johnson | 3.8% |
6 of his 17 games were blowouts, 42.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 18.02 in those and 14.01 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Caleb Williams →