QB · IND · GWTTKB

Daniel Jones — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 17.42 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 161.9, usage worth 16.6.

29 years old · 7 seasons of experience · 2019 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.
ADP 161.9
Consensus across 4 books, standard deviation 33.6, 79.6 picks between cheapest and priciest. Cheapest on sleeper, priciest on yahoo.
SLEEPER208.3
ESPN160
YAHOO128.7
UNDERDOG147.3
CBS150.7
FFA170

Draft-room facts

Goes aroundRound 14, pick 6 in a 12-team draft
Positional rankQB25
Bye week13
ADP standard deviation33.6 picks

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 281.2 points, 16.7 per game — 3,951 passing yards, 21.9 passing TDs, 225 rushing yards. That is QB4, 166 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 13.3 points per game to a ceiling of 22.7, with the median at 16.7. Boom rate 36%, bust rate 20%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

He goes at 161.9 on consensus and our board has him 166. We rank him 4.1 picks worse than the room drafts him, so at ADP he is mildly overpriced. That is an objection to the price and not to the player — if he falls past his slot he can be exactly the right pick.

Our written view

last year's ranking was aided by some clearly lucky rushing-TD conversion (a high scoring rate on a modest raw attempt total) alongside genuinely elite passing — arguably his best statistical season — that may be hard to fully repeat, since it happened while the team was winning big and controlling games (clean, low-pressure passing opportunity) in a way that might not repeat if the win total regresses. Reportedly fully healthy and tracking ahead of schedule — read as the single most important swing variable for the ENTIRE supporting cast's outlook, not just his own.

hold · medium conviction · 2026-08

The offense he plays in, 2026

Indianapolis Colts returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1. Daniel Jones at quarterback, Shane Steichen as head coach, Jim Bob Cooter calling it. The offense projects to 32.5 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 26.1 rushes.

In: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (wr3), Deion Burks (wr5), Seth McGowan (rb3), Anderson Castle (rb4). Out: Michael Pittman Jr (wr1), Adonai Mitchell (wr4), Ameer Abdullah (rb3).

The projected target split across the offense:

Josh Downs20.1%
Tyler Warren19.1%
Alec Pierce17%
Jonathan Taylor10.1%
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine10%
Deion Burks4.8%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

What the offense looks like: The Colts seriously need Daniel Jones to BE THAT GUY. Taylor, Downs, and especially Alec Pierce rely on having a highly productive passing game that helps lift the entire offense as whole. Tyler Warren has shown flashes of being the next George Kittle, really awesome player.

Key additions: Colts brought in WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine in free agency. Westbrook-Ikhine was a highly dynamic WR while in Tennessee. Could be nohting, but could help.

Key departures: WR Michael Pittman Jr traded to Steelers. QB Anthony Richardson requested a trade & will not play again for the Colts.

Notes: Anthony Richardson will be traded or released. Daniel Jones on track for full recovery from torn achilles & landed extension. Very positive for offense. Jonathan Taylor aging but HIGHLY productive. Alec Pierce lands MASSVIVE 4 year contract & Colts invested in him as their WR1. Josh Downs is primed for an increase workload & could truly break out in 2026. Michael Pittman Jr. traded to Steelers. Tyler Warren is a top TE in dynasty & could have a MASSIVE season next year.

How the volume number was reached: Same QB Daniel Jones returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (32.1 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.5 att/g.

How the quarterback projection was built

Base case 260.3 PPR points, with a bear case of 138.6 and a bull case of 346, and a comp mean of 241.9. The model puts 50% probability on him beating this and 50% on falling short. Drawn from 20 comparable quarterback seasons.

Comparable seasonWhat he actually scoredDistance
Marcus Mariota 2015259.90.4
Mike Vick 2011151.70.4
Ben Roethlisberger 2010231.10.4
Brock Purdy 2024199.60.5
Matt Schaub 2011254.20.5

Cross-check against the dynasty market: his production ranks in the 48th percentile and his value in the 24th, which the engine reads as below production. Players with a similar production-against-value gap saw dynasty value move -3.6% over the following year, across 36 cases — a dynasty signal, not a 2026 scoring one.

Offensive environment: IND rates 23.3 against a league average of 23, 0.3 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season+1.1 · neutral
Weeks 1–6+4.7 · easier
Weeks 12–17-0.8 · neutral
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)+2.9 · easier

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

What happened when he missed time

From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.

SeasonGames missedMain beneficiaryTheir PPR gain
20232Tyrod Taylor+5.3
Read the full Daniel Jones study →

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved +47.5% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, QBs crash the following year 52% of the time (hold 48%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 52% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.8 elite seasons and 3.1 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Baker Mayfield202316.179%+58.5%
Sam Darnold202418.168%+33.2%
Baker Mayfield202421.562%0%
Geno Smith202415.661%-37.7%
Dak Prescott202320.259%+2%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 1 lost it and 2 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

02,0004,0006,000202120222023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2020-06 to 2026-07. Down 31% across the series, peaking at 5,966.

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Drafted2019, round 1, pick 6 by NYG
CollegeDuke
Age at draft22
Height6′5″
Weight221 lb
40-yard dash4.81s
Vertical33.5″
Broad jump120″
3-cone7s
Shuttle4.41s

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game14.7
Week-to-week variation0.5
Boom rate15.4%
Bust rate15.4%
Games missed per season1
Injury historyHamstring, Neck
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score-0.31

That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · IND · 13 games

His best game was Week 1 against MIA — 29.48 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 33-8. His worst was Week 14 against JAX at 0.8, on 0 targets, final score 19-36. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 16.9; in the 6 decided by more, 18. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 16.6 points per game. He scored 17.42, 5.2% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1MIA33-829.48072630%100%
2DEN29-2822.8406220%100%
3TEN41-2015.82042710%88%
4LA20-2710.3801-110%100%
5LV40-616.6801220%89%
6ARI31-2722.48052030%100%
7LAC38-2422.2205720%100%
8TEN38-1423.1801330%89%
9PIT20-2714.0803420%100%
10ATL31-2515.5075310%100%
12KC20-2316.84031620%100%
13HOU16-2016.1401120%100%
14JAX19-360.801400%23%

Production

Carries45
Rushing yards164
Touchdowns24
Points per game17.42
Yards per carry3.64

Role

Snap share91.46%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game1.24

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share15.8%
Goal-line carry share17.1%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs3.18

Who else ate

The offense threw it 546 times. 4 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Tyler Warren21.21%
Michael Pittman21.02%
Josh Downs16.67%
Alec Pierce15.91%
Jonathan Taylor10.42%
Mo Alie-Cox3.79%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Daniel Jones12018.80%
Riley Leonard100.80%

Blowouts against close games

5 of his 13 games were blowouts, 38% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 17.19 in those and 16.89 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2024 · NYG · 10 games

His best game was Week 9 against WAS — 24.36 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 22-27. His worst was Week 1 against MIN at 4.94, on 0 targets, final score 6-28. Across 10 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 15.1; in the 4 decided by more, 11.2. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 20.5 points per game. He scored 13.53, 33.8% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1MIN6-284.94061500%100%
2WAS18-2118.32053220%100%
3CLE21-1519.44082020%100%
4DAL15-209.5404300%100%
5SEA29-2022.080113820%100%
6CIN7-1711.80115600%100%
7PHI3-285.96052000%79%
8PIT18-266.6603100%100%
9WAS22-2724.36075430%100%
10CAR17-2012.2072610%100%

Production

Carries67
Rushing yards265
Touchdowns10
Points per game13.53
Yards per carry3.96

Role

Snap share97.9%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game0.8

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share19.6%
Goal-line carry share17.6%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs1.68

Who else ate

The offense threw it 591 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Malik Nabers30.69%
Wan'Dale Robinson25.27%
Darius Slayton12.82%
Tyrone Tracy9.57%
Theo Johnson7.76%
Devin Singletary4.33%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 10 games were blowouts, 8.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.45 in those and 15.09 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2023 · NYG · 6 games

His best game was Week 2 against ARI — 30.74 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 31-28. His worst was Week 9 against LV at 1.9, on 0 targets, final score 6-30. Across 6 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 4 times.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 16.3 points per game. He scored 9.49, 41.6% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1DAL0-404.460134300%96%
2ARI31-2830.74095930%100%
3SF12-303.9802500%94%
4SEA3-248.720106600%97%
5MIA16-317.16042400%68%
9LV6-301.902900%33%

Production

Carries40
Rushing yards206
Touchdowns3
Points per game9.49
Yards per carry5.15

Role

Snap share81.33%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game0.97

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share10.1%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0.48

Who else ate

The offense threw it 518 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Darius Slayton16.32%
Wan'Dale Robinson16.12%
Darren Waller15.29%
Saquon Barkley12.4%
Jalin Hyatt8.26%
Isaiah Hodgins6.82%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Daniel Jones5011.010%
Tommy DeVito101.90%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 6 games were blowouts, 33.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.76 in those and 30.74 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2022 · NYG · 16 games

His best game was Week 17 against IND — 36.18 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 38-10. His worst was Week 8 against SEA at 9.04, on 0 targets, final score 13-27. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 0 times. In the 12 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 16.6; in the 4 decided by more, 22.3. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 18.6 points per game. He scored 18.06, 3.7% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1TEN21-2016.02062520%100%
2CAR19-1613.140102110%100%
3DAL16-2313.74097900%100%
4CHI20-1221.64066820%82%
5GB27-2212.380103700%100%
6BAL24-2013.5206620%100%
7JAX23-1728.7801110720%100%
8SEA13-279.04062000%100%
10HOU24-1618.28052420%100%
11DET18-3124.64075020%100%
12DAL20-2814.52031410%100%
13WAS20-2017.10127110%100%
14PHI22-4819.36042620%81%
15WAS20-129.90103500%100%
16MIN24-2720.76043410%100%
17IND38-1036.180119140%87%

Production

Carries120
Rushing yards708
Touchdowns22
Points per game18.06
Yards per carry5.9

Role

Snap share96.88%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game2.46

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share29.8%
Goal-line carry share23.1%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs4.04

Who else ate

The offense threw it 520 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Saquon Barkley15.54%
Darius Slayton14.52%
Richie James14.31%
Isaiah Hodgins8.59%
Daniel Bellinger7.16%
Wan'Dale Robinson6.34%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 16 games were blowouts, 19.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 27.77 in those and 16.65 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2021 · NYG · 11 games

His best game was Week 2 against WAS — 29.46 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 29-30. His worst was Week 6 against LA at 4.08, on 0 targets, final score 11-38. Across 11 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 18.7; in the 5 decided by more, 11.1. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 18.8 points per game. He scored 15.23, 19.1% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1DEN13-2721.38062720%100%
2WAS29-3029.46099520%100%
3ATL14-1716.54083900%100%
4NO27-2126.78042720%100%
5DAL20-444.8203900%43%
6LA11-384.0803400%100%
7CAR25-317.521682813%100%
8KC17-2016.08051220%100%
9LV23-168.1041710%100%
11TB10-307.68031010%100%
12PHI13-715.08093010%100%

Production

Receptions1
Targets1
Receiving yards16
Carries62
Rushing yards298
Touchdowns12
Points per game15.23
Yards per target16
Catch rate100%
Yards per carry4.81

Role

Snap share94.82%
Target share0.27%
Air-yards share0.53%
WOPR0.008
RACR0.112

Efficiency

Average depth of target13
Yards after catch per reception3
Yards before catch per reception13
Total YAC3
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted118.7
Receiving EPA per game0.09
Rushing EPA per game0.69

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share26.1%
Goal-line carry share23.1%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs1.92

Who else ate

The offense threw it 592 times. 0 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Kenny Golladay13.55%
Evan Engram13.01%
Darius Slayton10.34%
Saquon Barkley10.16%
Kadarius Toney10.16%
Sterling Shepard9.45%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Daniel Jones10116.27160.3%
Mike Glennon104.820%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 11 games were blowouts, 20.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.53 in those and 18.67 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2020 · NYG · 14 games

His best game was Week 10 against PHI — 22.16 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 27-17. His worst was Week 14 against ARI at 3.08, on 0 targets, final score 7-26. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12.8; in the 5 decided by more, 13. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 18.6 points per game. He scored 12.86, 31% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1PIT16-2617.36042220%100%
2CHI13-177.74032100%100%
3SF9-368.06054900%100%
4LA9-1710.1064500%100%
5DAL34-378.1802-700%100%
6WAS20-1913.88077410%100%
7PHI21-2220.68049220%100%
8TB23-2516.24032020%100%
9WAS23-2012.8806410%100%
10PHI27-1722.16096410%100%
12CIN19-1710.42061900%63%
14ARI7-263.0800000%90%
16BAL13-2714.3801310%100%
17DAL23-1914.86091720%100%

Production

Carries65
Rushing yards423
Touchdowns12
Points per game12.86
Yards per carry6.51

Role

Snap share96.64%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game-0.06

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share8%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0.27

Who else ate

The offense threw it 516 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Evan Engram21.84%
Darius Slayton19.24%
Sterling Shepard18.04%
Golden Tate10.42%
Dion Lewis6.01%
Wayne Gallman5.41%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 14 games were blowouts, 6.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.57 in those and 12.78 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

Ask the Coach about Daniel Jones →
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