QB · NYJ · GWTTKB

Geno Smith — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 11.59 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 170.3, usage worth 16.2.

35 years old · 13 seasons of experience · 2013 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.
ADP 170.3
Consensus across 1 books, 0 picks between cheapest and priciest. Cheapest on underdog, priciest on espn.
ESPN170.3
UNDERDOG187.9
FFA270

Draft-room facts

Goes aroundRound 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft
Positional rankQB66
Bye week13

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 240.3 points, 14.3 per game — 3,584 passing yards, 20.9 passing TDs, 210 rushing yards. That is QB5, 256 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 11.5 points per game to a ceiling of 20.1, with the median at 14.3. Boom rate 40%, bust rate 20%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

He goes at 170.3 on consensus and our board has him 256. We rank him 85.7 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.

Our written view

even in a full, uninterrupted starting season last year, finished well outside fantasy-relevant range at the position — and he's now on a team with one of the worst market-implied scoring outlooks in the league, meaning even a full healthy season of QB1 snaps likely still isn't enough volume/efficiency to matter.

watch · medium conviction · 2026-08

The offense he plays in, 2026

New York Jets returns 3 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, te1, oc. Geno Smith at quarterback, Aaron Glenn as head coach, Frank Reich calling it. The offense projects to 32.8 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 26.6 rushes.

In: Geno Smith (qb), Cade Klubnik (qb2), Omar Cooper Jr (wr2), Irvin Charles (wr5), Mac Dalena (wr7), Kenyon Sadiq (te1). Out: Justin Fields (qb), John Metchie III (wr3), Tyler Johnson (wr4), Jeremy Ruckert (te2).

The projected target split across the offense:

Garrett Wilson22.9%
Omar Cooper Jr16.3%
Kenyon Sadiq14%
Breece Hall10.8%
Adonai Mitchell10.1%
Mason Taylor9.3%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

What the offense looks like: This is a tough offense for fantasy managers to be heavily invested in. An even worse spot for a rookie to be drafted to. Kenyon Sadiq has to be upset. Not only that, but he has to share the TE room with Mason Taylor, who was looking like he could become a top 15 TE. For Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, realistically for a MASSIVE value spike, they both need to be traded. It will be tough to produce in NY.

Key additions: QB Geno Smith traded to Jets from Raiders. QB Cade Klubnik drafted 5th round, Kenyon Sadiq drafted 1st round 16th overall. WR Omar Cooper Jr. drafted 1st round 30th overall

Key departures: Justin Fields QB traded to Chiefs.

Notes: Fields traded. Jets bring in Geno Smith from Raiders who was AWFUL in Vegas last year. Could provide decent opportunity for Garrett Wilson (elite WR needs better QB play). Adonai Mitchell likely to play WR3 behind Omar Cooper Jr (round 1 pick). Will have to monitor closely to see. Drafted Kenyon Sadiq Round 1 TE (high ceiling but may take time to break out). Mason Taylor will likely be TE2 behind Sadiq but could be starter at beginning of season. Breece Hall lands HUGE extension 3 year $45 million deal. Keeping him in New York through 2028. The talent is there, but the offense has to be able to score for Breece to be productive.

How the volume number was reached: New QB Geno Smith, avg 31.9 att/g over 2025,2024; Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.8 att/g; New OC Frank Reich — pass rate and tempo may shift.

How the quarterback projection was built

Base case 106.7 PPR points, with a bear case of 16.2 and a bull case of 245.3, and a comp mean of 131.3. The model puts 25% probability on him beating this and 75% on falling short. Drawn from 20 comparable quarterback seasons.

Comparable seasonWhat he actually scoredDistance
Jay Cutler 2012168.60.3
Andy Dalton 2014244.20.4
Ryan Fitzpatrick 2012167.70.4
Matt Hasselbeck 201176.50.4
Chad Henne 201059.90.4

Cross-check against the dynasty market: his production ranks in the 3th percentile and his value in the 7th, which the engine reads as in line. Players with a similar production-against-value gap saw dynasty value move -13.4% over the following year, across 81 cases — a dynasty signal, not a 2026 scoring one.

Offensive environment: NYJ rates 18.8 against a league average of 23, 4.2 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season-3.2 · harder
Weeks 1–6+2.9 · easier
Weeks 12–17-5 · harder
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)-7.6 · harder

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

What happened when he missed time

From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.

SeasonGames missedMain beneficiaryTheir PPR gain
20252Kenny Pickett+-1.7

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved -31.8% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, QBs recover only 30% of the time (keep falling 70%).

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.8 elite seasons and 3.1 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Baker Mayfield202316.165%+58.5%
Russell Wilson202415.757%-68.2%
Sam Darnold202418.156%+33.2%
Baker Mayfield202210.155%+114.9%
Aaron Rodgers202415.154%+26.4%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 4 gained value, 1 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

02,0004,000202120222023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2020-06 to 2026-07. From 0 to 2,266, peaking at 3,984.

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Height6′2″
Weight218 lb
40-yard dash4.58s
Vertical33.5″
Broad jump124″

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game15.3
Week-to-week variation0.4
Boom rate13.2%
Bust rate11.3%
Games missed per season0.4
Injury historyShoulder, Ankle
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score0.53

That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · LV · 15 games

His best game was Week 9 against JAX — 26.26 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 29-30. His worst was Week 7 against KC at 2.78, on 0 targets, final score 0-31. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13.5; in the 9 decided by more, 10.3. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 16.2 points per game. He scored 11.59, 28.3% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1NE20-1317.48021010%100%
2LAC9-203.2052000%100%
3WAS24-4126.0602530%100%
4CHI24-259.78043120%100%
5IND6-405.9203800%100%
6TEN20-108.6604-310%100%
7KC0-312.7802100%86%
9JAX29-3026.2605940%100%
10DEN7-104.4203700%97%
11DAL16-3312.92041410%100%
12CLE10-2414.203810%100%
13LAC14-311202-620%100%
14DEN17-249.0401410%74%
16HOU21-2314.0400020%100%
17NYG10-347.1401110%90%

Production

Carries41
Rushing yards109
Touchdowns19
Points per game11.59
Yards per carry2.66

Role

Snap share96.47%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game-0.11

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share15.2%
Goal-line carry share16.7%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs1.01

Who else ate

The offense threw it 515 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Tre Tucker18.66%
Brock Bowers17.44%
Ashton Jeanty14.81%
Michael Mayer10.14%
Jakobi Meyers9.94%
Tyler Lockett6.9%

Blowouts against close games

6 of his 15 games were blowouts, 38.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11.14 in those and 13.5 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2024 · SEA · 17 games

His best game was Week 18 against LA — 26.32 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 30-25. His worst was Week 15 against GB at 4.46, on 0 targets, final score 13-30. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 17.8; in the 9 decided by more, 13.8. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 17.7 points per game. He scored 15.65, 11.4% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1DEN26-2017.84043020%100%
2NE23-2017.8805810%100%
3MIA24-311.3602-210%100%
4DET29-4221.6053810%100%
5NYG20-2922.56047210%100%
6SF24-3612.4801010%100%
7ATL34-1417.78041520%98%
8BUF10-318.08051600%100%
9LA20-2622.12061630%100%
11SF20-1715.74042910%100%
12ARI16-612.3603210%100%
13NYJ26-2112.4402210%100%
14ARI30-1813.3201010%100%
15GB13-304.4601500%59%
16MIN24-2721.3601830%100%
17CHI6-38.3031900%100%
18LA30-2526.32021440%100%

Production

Carries53
Rushing yards272
Touchdowns23
Points per game15.65
Yards per carry5.13

Role

Snap share97.47%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game0.07

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share10.5%
Goal-line carry share7.4%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs1

Who else ate

The offense threw it 593 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba24.08%
DK Metcalf18.98%
Tyler Lockett13.01%
Noah Fant11.25%
Kenneth Walker9.31%
Zach Charbonnet9.14%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 15.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.42 in those and 17.75 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2023 · SEA · 15 games

His best game was Week 13 against DAL — 29.96 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 35-41. His worst was Week 9 against BAL at 2.68, on 0 targets, final score 3-37. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 18.9; in the 6 decided by more, 9.6. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 16 points per game. He scored 15.15, 5.3% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1LA13-309.0801610%100%
2DET37-3123.12032020%100%
3CAR37-2715.4404-410%100%
4NYG24-39.2-20013.8%69%
6CIN13-1711.04042000%100%
7ARI20-1013.76061020%100%
8CLE24-2013.8602-320%100%
9BAL3-372.6802400%100%
10WAS29-2624.06011320%100%
11LA16-1713.2201-110%88%
12SF13-317.3042100%100%
13DAL35-4129.9602640%100%
16TEN20-1717.2801220%100%
17PIT23-3016.9033310%100%
18ARI21-2020.36032820%100%

Production

Receptions1
Targets1
Receiving yards-2
Carries37
Rushing yards155
Touchdowns21
Points per game15.15
Yards per target-2
Catch rate100%
Yards per carry4.19

Role

Snap share97.13%
Target share0.25%
Air-yards share-0.41%
WOPR0.001

Efficiency

Average depth of target-8
Yards after catch per reception6
Yards before catch per reception-8
Total YAC6
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted79.2
Receiving EPA per game-0.1
Rushing EPA per game-0.33

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share10%
Goal-line carry share4.3%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0.93

Who else ate

The offense threw it 575 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Tyler Lockett22.34%
DK Metcalf21.79%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba17.03%
Noah Fant7.88%
Zach Charbonnet7.33%
Kenneth Walker6.78%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 15 games were blowouts, 12.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.07 in those and 18.87 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2022 · SEA · 17 games

His best game was Week 4 against DET — 31.7 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 48-45. His worst was Week 2 against SF at 6.08, on 0 targets, final score 7-27. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 20.3; in the 7 decided by more, 14.4. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 17.5 points per game. He scored 17.88, 2.1% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1DEN17-1617.2061420%100%
2SF7-276.0802200%100%
3ATL23-2718.902-120%100%
4DET48-4531.7074930%100%
5NO32-3924.02031330%100%
6ARI19-912.68064800%100%
7LAC37-2313.104720%100%
8NYG27-1319.08052620%100%
9ARI31-2120.8063820%100%
10TB16-2119.2042220%100%
12LV34-4019.32052220%100%
13LA27-2322.9802330%100%
14CAR24-3020.56032030%100%
15SF13-2115.32011810%100%
16KC10-2412.2031610%100%
17NYJ23-617.12051820%100%
18LA19-1613.62045110%100%

Production

Carries68
Rushing yards366
Touchdowns31
Points per game17.88
Yards per carry5.38

Role

Snap share100%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game0.08

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share8.5%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0.47

Who else ate

The offense threw it 573 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

DK Metcalf25.5%
Tyler Lockett21.16%
Noah Fant11.39%
Marquise Goodwin7.59%
Will Dissly6.87%
Kenneth Walker6.33%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 17 games were blowouts, 7.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11.6 in those and 20.28 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2021 · SEA · 4 games

His best game was Week 8 against JAX — 22.6 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 31-7. His worst was Week 5 against LA at 9.54, on 0 targets, final score 17-26. Across 4 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 0 times.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 12.3 points per game. He scored 13.57, 10.8% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
5LA17-269.54032310%38%
6PIT20-2310.2601-110%100%
7NO10-1311.88031210%100%
8JAX31-722.602830%100%

Production

Carries9
Rushing yards42
Touchdowns6
Points per game13.57
Yards per carry4.67

Role

Snap share84.5%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game0.92

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share1.7%
Goal-line carry share5.6%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0.43

Who else ate

The offense threw it 495 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

DK Metcalf27.27%
Tyler Lockett22.62%
Gerald Everett13.32%
Freddie Swain8.46%
Will Dissly5.5%
DeeJay Dallas4.86%

Blowouts against close games

1 of his 4 games were blowouts, 41.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 22.6 in those and 11.07 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2020 · SEA · 1 games

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 3.9 points per game. He scored 1.12, 71.3% below it. The engine classified the season as low_volume.

WkOppScorePPRYdsTDTgt%Snap%
14NYJ40-31.12000%25%

Production

Carries2
Rushing yards-2
Touchdowns0
Points per game1.12
Yards per carry-1

Role

Snap share25%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game-3.01

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share1.6%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0.13

Who else ate

The offense threw it 563 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Tyler Lockett24.63%
DK Metcalf24.07%
David Moore8.77%
Chris Carson8.58%
Jacob Hollister7.46%
Greg Olsen6.9%
Ask the Coach about Geno Smith →
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