QB · PIT · GWTTKB

Aaron Rodgers — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 14.19 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 174.3, usage worth 15.7.

42 years old · 21 seasons of experience · 2005 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.
ADP 174.3
Consensus across 3 books, standard deviation 59.6, 118.9 picks between cheapest and priciest. Cheapest on sleeper, priciest on yahoo.
SLEEPER236.4
ESPN169
YAHOO117.5
UNDERDOG178.4
FFA238

Draft-room facts

Goes aroundRound 15, pick 6 in a 12-team draft
Positional rankQB67
Bye week9
ADP standard deviation59.6 picks

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 250.1 points, 14.9 per game — 3,752 passing yards, 25 passing TDs, 47 rushing yards. That is QB5, 227 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 11.9 points per game to a ceiling of 20.7, with the median at 14.9. Boom rate 39%, bust rate 20%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

He goes at 174.3 on consensus and our board has him 227. We rank him 52.7 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.

Our written view

essentially zero remaining rushing equity at this stage, zero 300-yard passing games last season. New weapons (a proven possession receiver, a rookie TE) are real additions, but the realistic outlook is still a low-ceiling streaming-caliber option at best, not a real roster spot in most formats.

hold · medium conviction · 2026-08

The offense he plays in, 2026

Pittsburgh Steelers returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing hc, oc. Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, Mike McCarthy as head coach, Brian Angelichio calling it. The offense projects to 33 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 25.3 rushes.

In: Drew Allar (qb2), Michael Pittman Jr. (wr2), Germie Bernard (wr3), Kaden Wejen (wr6), A.T. Perry (wr7), Rico Dowdle (rb2), Eli Heidenreich (rb4). Out: Calvin Austin III (wr2), Adam Thielen (wr4), Kenneth Gainwell (rb2), Jonnu Smith (te2).

The projected target split across the offense:

DK Metcalf21%
Michael Pittman Jr.13.9%
Germie Bernard13.6%
Pat Freiermuth13.1%
Jaylen Warren10.4%
Rico Dowdle7.1%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

Key additions: Traded for and Signed Michael Pittman Jr to 3 year $59M deal. Signed RB Rico Dowdle to 2/$12M deal in free agency. Drafted WR Germie Bernard in 2nd round, Drafted OT Max Iheanachor in 1st roud to beef up line. Drafted QB Drew Allar in the 3rd round. Drafted G Gennings Dunker 3rd roud (depth). Bringin in HC Mike McCarthy & Brian Angelichio as OC.

Key departures: RB Kenneth Gainwell left in free agency to Bucs. LG Isaac Seumalo left for Cardinals. WR Calvin Austin III left in free agency for Giants. HC Mike Tomlin & OC Arthur Smith (Ass) are both gone.

Notes: Drafted Bernard round 2 Steelers traded up. Steelers traded for Michael Pittman Jr. who is aging but will elevate the passing game. DK Metcalf looks to get back on track in 2026 & establish himself as WR1. Crowded WR room. Steelers drafted WR Riley Nowakowski in the 4th round & he will likely operate as WR5 or return specialist. Signed Rico Dowdle to 2 year deal in free agency. Warren is slotted to be 1A and Dowdle 1B, but any injury to either back makes the other a home run hit in fantasy for 2026. Aaron Rodgers SHOULD return to Steelers, but also drafted Drew Allar (bad QB but good prospect who should be rostered because he can progress. Zero floor on Allar but the ceiling is very high if he gets better.)

How the volume number was reached: Same QB Aaron Rodgers returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (32.4 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33 att/g; New OC Brian Angelichio — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Mike McCarthy.

How the quarterback projection was built

Base case 179.3 PPR points, with a bear case of 69.1 and a bull case of 260, and a comp mean of 167.8. The model puts 25% probability on him beating this and 75% on falling short. Drawn from 20 comparable quarterback seasons.

Comparable seasonWhat he actually scoredDistance
Ryan Fitzpatrick 2012167.70.3
Andy Dalton 2011255.30.4
Philip Rivers 2012315.50.4
Mike Glennon 201389.60.4
Matt Hasselbeck 20101900.5

Cross-check against the dynasty market: his production ranks in the 24th percentile and his value in the 10th, which the engine reads as below production. Players with a similar production-against-value gap saw dynasty value move -3.6% over the following year, across 36 cases — a dynasty signal, not a 2026 scoring one.

Offensive environment: PIT rates 21.3 against a league average of 23, 1.6 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season-1.9 · harder
Weeks 1–6+2.2 · easier
Weeks 12–17-1.8 · harder
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)+3.7 · easier

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved +1.4% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.8 elite seasons and 3.1 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Jared Goff202216.761%+33.2%
Derek Carr202415.161%-53.1%
Matthew Stafford202413.461%+40.2%
Tua Tagovailoa202416.559%-27.8%
Kirk Cousins202412.657%-14.2%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

02,0004,0006,000202120222023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2020-06 to 2026-07. Down 64% across the series, peaking at 6,303.

The player

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game17.7
Week-to-week variation0.4
Boom rate9%
Bust rate9%
Games missed per season0
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score0.34

The record, season by season

2025 · PIT · 16 games

His best game was Week 1 against NYJ — 25.66 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 34-32. His worst was Week 13 against BUF at 2.68, on 0 targets, final score 7-26. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 16.3; in the 7 decided by more, 11.5. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 15.7 points per game. He scored 14.19, 14.2% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1NYJ34-3225.6601-140%100%
2SEA17-3110.4201310%95%
3NE21-1411.6604120%100%
4MIN24-2112.803810%100%
6CLE23-917.501120%95%
7CIN31-3322.5601640%100%
8GB25-3516.7600020%100%
9IND27-2012.1202010%100%
10LAC10-256.4400010%100%
11CIN34-129.4401810%57%
13BUF7-262.6801000%84%
14BAL27-2221.46-92023%100%
15MIA28-1516.9600020%100%
16DET29-2415.5402910%100%
17CLE6-137.3201600%100%
18BAL26-2417.76012010%100%

Production

Receptions1
Targets1
Receiving yards-9
Carries21
Rushing yards61
Touchdowns25
Points per game14.19
Yards per target-9
Catch rate100%
Yards per carry2.9

Role

Snap share95.69%
Target share0.19%
Air-yards share-0.26%
WOPR0.001

Efficiency

Average depth of target-9
Yards after catch per reception0
Yards before catch per reception-9
Total YAC0
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted79.2
Receiving EPA per game-0.1
Rushing EPA per game-0.18

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share3.7%
Goal-line carry share6.9%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0.83

Who else ate

The offense threw it 550 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

DK Metcalf19.04%
Kenneth Gainwell16.35%
Calvin Austin III10.58%
Jonnu Smith10.38%
Pat Freiermuth10.38%
Jaylen Warren8.65%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Aaron Rodgers15114.51-90.2%
Mason Rudolph109.440%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 16 games were blowouts, 5.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.06 in those and 16.32 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2024 · NYJ · 17 games

His best game was Week 15 against JAX — 30.06 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 32-25. His worst was Week 17 against BUF at 0.48, on 0 targets, final score 14-40. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 17.2; in the 7 decided by more, 12.1. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 16.4 points per game. He scored 15.09, 8% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1SF19-328.5801-110%75%
2TEN24-1715.1402120%100%
3NE24-321.04031820%100%
4DEN9-1011.6052600%100%
5MIN17-2311.7600020%100%
6BUF20-2317.7600020%100%
7PIT15-3713.0400010%100%
8NE22-2517.3200020%100%
9HOU21-1320.3401-130%100%
10ARI6-314.0400000%100%
11IND27-2816.0601720%100%
13SEA21-261402620%100%
14MIA26-3217.5600010%100%
15JAX32-2530.06064530%100%
16LA9-1912.8401610%100%
17BUF14-400.4800000%63%
18MIA32-2024.9600040%100%

Production

Carries22
Rushing yards107
Touchdowns28
Points per game15.09
Yards per carry4.86

Role

Snap share96.35%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game0.25

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share4.8%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0.08

Who else ate

The offense threw it 607 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Garrett Wilson25.98%
Davante Adams19.35%
Breece Hall12.9%
Tyler Conklin12.22%
Allen Lazard10.36%
Jeremy Ruckert4.75%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 15% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.65 in those and 17.16 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2023 · NYJ · 1 games

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 0.4 points per game. He scored 0, 100% below it. The engine classified the season as low_volume.

WkOppScorePPRYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1BUF22-160000%7%

Production

Carries0
Rushing yards0
Touchdowns0
Points per game0

Role

Snap share7%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game0

Who else ate

The offense threw it 600 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Garrett Wilson30.05%
Breece Hall16.99%
Tyler Conklin15.56%
Allen Lazard8.77%
Xavier Gipson6.8%
Jeremy Ruckert3.94%

2022 · GB · 17 games

His best game was Week 10 against DAL — 19.36 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 31-28. His worst was Week 1 against MIN at 3.7, on 0 targets, final score 7-23. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14.7; in the 8 decided by more, 13.4. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 15.2 points per game. He scored 14.07, 7.4% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1MIN7-233.701-100%92%
2CHI27-1016.36051020%100%
3TB14-1216.101-120%100%
4NE27-2416.1401120%100%
5NYG22-2716.8800020%100%
6NYJ10-2711.8401010%95%
7WAS21-2315.7600020%100%
8BUF17-2715.22011120%100%
9DET9-1513.64044010%100%
10DAL31-2819.3602430%100%
11TEN17-2719.0800020%100%
12PHI33-409.501-120%80%
13CHI28-1913.6803410%100%
15LA24-1210.8603-310%100%
16MIA26-2013.32071810%100%
17MIN41-1716.5601220%89%
18DET16-2011.2031010%100%

Production

Carries34
Rushing yards94
Touchdowns27
Points per game14.07
Yards per carry2.76

Role

Snap share97.41%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game-0.46

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share4.5%
Goal-line carry share7.1%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0.54

Who else ate

The offense threw it 563 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Allen Lazard18.55%
Aaron Jones13.36%
Robert Tonyan12.43%
Romeo Doubs12.43%
Christian Watson12.24%
Randall Cobb9.28%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 18.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 14.92 in those and 14.66 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2021 · GB · 16 games

His best game was Week 11 against MIN — 33.5 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 31-34. His worst was Week 1 against NO at 1.32, on 0 targets, final score 3-38. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 9 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 21.5; in the 8 decided by more, 20.1. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 16.1 points per game. He scored 20.83, 24.9% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1NO3-381.3200000%74%
2DET35-1726.804640%95%
3SF30-2819.04-40023.2%100%
4PIT27-1724.1203230%100%
5CIN25-2219.7600020%100%
6CHI24-1423.7071930%100%
7WAS24-1024.66021730%100%
8ARI24-2115.6602320%100%
10SEA17-010.4802800%100%
11MIN31-3433.5022140%98%
12LA36-2826.2802030%100%
14CHI45-3029.6401040%97%
15BAL31-3023.82041130%100%
16CLE24-2219.9801-130%100%
17MIN37-1020.3202820%84%
18DET30-3714.2201720%46%

Production

Receptions1
Targets1
Receiving yards-4
Carries33
Rushing yards101
Touchdowns40
Points per game20.83
Yards per target-4
Catch rate100%
Yards per carry3.06

Role

Snap share93.38%
Target share0.2%
Air-yards share-0.07%
WOPR0.003

Efficiency

Average depth of target-4
Yards after catch per reception0
Yards before catch per reception-4
Total YAC0
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted79.2
Receiving EPA per game-0.08
Rushing EPA per game0.36

Scoring position

Red-zone targets1
Red-zone target share0.8%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share7.5%
Goal-line carry share12.5%
Expected receiving TDs0.14
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-0.14
Expected rushing TDs1.59

Who else ate

The offense threw it 593 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Davante Adams29.7%
Aaron Jones11.42%
Allen Lazard10.54%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling9.67%
Randall Cobb6.85%
A.J. Dillon6.5%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 16 games were blowouts, 17.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 14.73 in those and 21.53 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2020 · GB · 16 games

His best game was Week 14 against DET — 30.9 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 31-24. His worst was Week 6 against TB at 3.8, on 0 targets, final score 10-38. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 13 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 23.9; in the 10 decided by more, 24. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 17.7 points per game. He scored 23.95, 36.1% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1MIN43-3430.7601240%97%
2DET42-2119.2-621223.3%93%
3NO37-3024.52021230%100%
4ATL30-1629.5801540%98%
6TB10-383.8021400%95%
7HOU35-2027.3200040%97%
8MIN22-2822.5402930%100%
9SF34-1728.901740%94%
10JAX24-2025.403430%100%
11IND31-3421.74031330%100%
12CHI41-2525.64021240%97%
13PHI30-1623.504-330%100%
14DET31-2430.9061340%100%
15CAR24-1618.32052620%100%
16TEN40-1425.14031940%95%
17CHI35-162601440%100%

Production

Receptions1
Targets1
Receiving yards-6
Carries38
Rushing yards149
Touchdowns51
Points per game23.95
Yards per target-6
Catch rate100%
Yards per carry3.92

Role

Snap share97.88%
Target share0.21%
Air-yards share-0.09%
WOPR0.003

Efficiency

Average depth of target-4
Yards after catch per reception-2
Yards before catch per reception-4
Total YAC-2
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted79.2
Receiving EPA per game-0.09
Rushing EPA per game0.18

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share5.4%
Goal-line carry share8.3%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs1.25

Who else ate

The offense threw it 526 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Davante Adams29.8%
Aaron Jones12.6%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling12.6%
Robert Tonyan11.8%
Allen Lazard9.2%
Jamaal Williams7%

Blowouts against close games

5 of his 16 games were blowouts, 26.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 20.61 in those and 23.9 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

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