QB · CIN · GWTTKB

Joe Burrow — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 16.81 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 53.7, usage worth 16.6.

29 years old · 6 seasons of experience · 2020 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.
ADP 53.7
Consensus across 4 books, standard deviation 5.3, 13 picks between cheapest and priciest. Cheapest on underdog, priciest on yahoo.
SLEEPER54.5
ESPN60
YAHOO47
UNDERDOG68.7
CBS53.4
FFA63

Draft-room facts

Goes aroundRound 5, pick 6 in a 12-team draft
Positional rankQB4
Bye week6
ADP standard deviation5.3 picks

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 355 points, 21.1 per game — 4,697 passing yards, 38.9 passing TDs, 126 rushing yards. That is QB2, 63 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 16.9 points per game to a ceiling of 28.2, with the median at 21.1. Boom rate 34%, bust rate 20%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

He goes at 53.7 on consensus and our board has him 63. We rank him 9.3 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.

Our written view

the mobility gap versus the rest of this tier is real and acknowledged, but the counterweight is a genuinely upgraded offensive line after years of poor protection being the single biggest recurring problem of his career, plus a real blocking-TE addition helping both the run game and pass protection. When he and his top receiver were both healthy for a stretch two years ago, he finished top-5 at the position purely through the air with zero real rushing equity — meaning even a repeat of that pure-passing ceiling is excellent value at his current, more discounted ADP.

buy · high conviction · 2026-08

The offense he plays in, 2026

Cincinnati Bengals returns 6 of 6 continuity slots — the whole offense is intact. Joe Burrow at quarterback, Zac Taylor as head coach, Dan Pitcher calling it. The offense projects to 36.4 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 23.6 rushes.

In: Colbie Young (wr4), Mitch Tinsley (wr5), Kendric Pryor (wr7). Out: Mitchell Tinsley (wr4), Noah Fant (te2).

The projected target split across the offense:

Ja'Marr Chase26.9%
Tee Higgins19.4%
Chase Brown11.8%
Mike Gesicki9.6%
Andrei Iosivas9.1%
Colbie Young6%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

Key additions: Retain G Dalton Risner & OT Orlando Brown Jr. Added C Connor Lew in the 4th round from Auburn & WR Colbie Young from Georgia in the 4th round.

Key departures: No key departures

Notes: Burrow and the Bengals look to get back on track & healthy for the 2026 season. Chase & Higgins are set to have fantastic years if the team is healthy. Chase Brown should see his fantasy value stay high in 2026 with Burrow back but it remains to be seen if he is the long term RB solution for Cincinatti. TE play does not typically produce consistent fantasy relevance. Bengals have added heavily on defense this offseason & should be more competitive. Worth note, if the Bengals do not play well this season HC Zac Taylor is going to be fired.

How the volume number was reached: Same QB Joe Burrow returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (37.7 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 36.4 att/g.

How the quarterback projection was built

Base case 287 PPR points, with a bear case of 133 and a bull case of 440.5, and a comp mean of 288.2. The model puts 30% probability on him beating this and 70% on falling short. Drawn from 20 comparable quarterback seasons.

Comparable seasonWhat he actually scoredDistance
Joe Burrow 2024134.50
Justin Herbert 2021297.40.3
Drew Brees 2012385.30.4
Dak Prescott 2023116.50.4
Justin Herbert 2020382.80.4

Cross-check against the dynasty market: his production ranks in the 83th percentile and his value in the 86th, which the engine reads as in line. Players with a similar production-against-value gap saw dynasty value move -13.4% over the following year, across 81 cases — a dynasty signal, not a 2026 scoring one.

Offensive environment: CIN rates 25.8 against a league average of 23, 2.9 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season+3.3 · easier
Weeks 1–6+4.3 · easier
Weeks 12–17-3.9 · harder
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)+3.5 · easier

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

What happened when he missed time

From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.

SeasonGames missedMain beneficiaryTheir PPR gain
20252Joe Flacco+9.2
Read the full Joe Burrow study →

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved -10.1% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.8 elite seasons and 3.1 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Derek Carr202415.175%-53.1%
Matthew Stafford202413.470%+40.2%
Jared Goff20231769%+22.3%
Tua Tagovailoa202416.569%-27.8%
Kirk Cousins202412.668%-14.2%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

02,0004,0006,0008,00010,000202120222023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2020-06 to 2026-07. Down 1% across the series, peaking at 9,257.

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Drafted2020, round 1, pick 1 by CIN
CollegeLSU
Age at draft23
Height6′3″
Weight221 lb

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game20.6
Week-to-week variation0.4
Boom rate22%
Bust rate8.5%
Games missed per season0.5
Injury historyright Wrist, Toe
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score0.49

That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · CIN · 8 games

His best game was Week 16 against MIA — 28.96 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 45-21. His worst was Week 15 against BAL at 5.5, on 0 targets, final score 0-24. Across 8 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 4 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 15.1; in the 4 decided by more, 18.5. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 16.6 points per game. He scored 16.81, 1.2% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1CLE17-168.8202310%100%
2JAX31-277.0400010%30%
13BAL32-1419.2403820%100%
14BUF34-3923.3600040%100%
15BAL0-245.502500%100%
16MIA45-2128.9602640%90%
17ARI37-1420.403220%83%
18CLE18-2021.14021730%99%

Production

Carries14
Rushing yards41
Touchdowns17
Points per game16.81
Yards per carry2.93

Role

Snap share87.75%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game0.45

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share3.4%
Goal-line carry share5.3%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0.44

Who else ate

The offense threw it 640 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Ja'Marr Chase30.48%
Tee Higgins16.14%
Chase Brown14.5%
Andrei Iosivas9.56%
Mike Gesicki6.92%
Noah Fant6.75%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Joe Burrow7018.20%
Jake Browning107.040%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 8 games were blowouts, 55.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 18.52 in those and 15.09 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2024 · CIN · 17 games

His best game was Week 17 against DEN — 36.98 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 30-24. His worst was Week 1 against NE at 8.06, on 0 targets, final score 10-16. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 8 times and came in under 8 points 0 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 23.3; in the 6 decided by more, 19.5. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 19.1 points per game. He scored 21.93, 14.8% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1NE10-168.06041500%100%
2KC25-2617.2206920%100%
3WAS33-3825.3601430%100%
4CAR34-2416.28011020%100%
5BAL38-4133.7802150%100%
6NYG17-719.82045510%100%
7CLE21-1414.9403-320%100%
8PHI17-3712.86031510%95%
9LV41-2429.14031150%99%
10BAL34-3533.7202640%100%
11LAC27-3429.04022830%100%
13PIT38-4419.2602930%100%
14DAL27-2024.5602-230%100%
15TEN37-2716.8400030%100%
16CLE24-621.98021930%98%
17DEN30-2436.98042540%100%
18PIT19-1712.9801-110%100%

Production

Carries42
Rushing yards201
Touchdowns45
Points per game21.93
Yards per carry4.79

Role

Snap share99.53%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game0.94

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share8.5%
Goal-line carry share12%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs1.39

Who else ate

The offense threw it 652 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Ja'Marr Chase27.91%
Tee Higgins17.38%
Mike Gesicki13.24%
Chase Brown10.37%
Andrei Iosivas9.73%
Zack Moss4.31%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 17.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 21.33 in those and 23.26 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2023 · CIN · 10 games

His best game was Week 8 against SF — 27.62 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 31-17. His worst was Week 1 against CLE at 3.18, on 0 targets, final score 3-24. Across 10 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 15.9; in the 5 decided by more, 13.5. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 17.9 points per game. He scored 14.72, 17.6% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1CLE3-243.1801-100%93%
2BAL24-2715.3801520%100%
3LA19-168.1603-200%100%
4TEN3-274.703100%100%
5ARI34-2023.3804730%100%
6SEA17-1313.802420%100%
8SF31-1727.62064330%100%
9BUF24-1822.3205420%100%
10HOU27-3019.88052020%100%
11BAL20-348.7401710%44%

Production

Carries31
Rushing yards88
Touchdowns15
Points per game14.72
Yards per carry2.84

Role

Snap share93.7%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game-0.35

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share2.6%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0.1

Who else ate

The offense threw it 615 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Ja'Marr Chase24.53%
Tyler Boyd16.58%
Tee Higgins12.86%
Joe Mixon10.83%
Tanner Hudson8.46%
Trenton Irwin5.41%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 10 games were blowouts, 5.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.94 in those and 15.91 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2022 · CIN · 16 games

His best game was Week 7 against ATL — 39.24 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 35-17. His worst was Week 18 against BAL at 11.6, on 0 targets, final score 27-16. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 8 times and came in under 8 points 0 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 22.8; in the 8 decided by more, 21. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 19.7 points per game. He scored 21.92, 8.7% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1PIT20-2318.22064720%100%
2DAL17-2016.56042610%100%
3NYJ27-122305030%100%
4MIA27-1520.0805620%100%
5BAL17-1917.2803620%100%
6NO30-2632.5042540%100%
7ATL35-1739.24032040%100%
8CLE13-3213.4801220%100%
9CAR42-2119.1404920%78%
11PIT37-3026.704540%100%
12TEN20-1618093210%100%
13KC27-2430.040114630%100%
14CLE23-1016.56061020%100%
15TB34-2324.803840%100%
16NE22-1823.504530%100%
18BAL27-1611.6031010%100%

Production

Carries75
Rushing yards257
Touchdowns40
Points per game21.92
Yards per carry3.43

Role

Snap share98.63%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game0.17

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share20.7%
Goal-line carry share30.3%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs4.86

Who else ate

The offense threw it 610 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Ja'Marr Chase22.56%
Tee Higgins18.35%
Tyler Boyd13.8%
Joe Mixon12.63%
Hayden Hurst11.45%
Samaje Perine8.59%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 16 games were blowouts, 20.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 23.95 in those and 22.85 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2021 · CIN · 16 games

His best game was Week 16 against BAL — 38.1 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 41-21. His worst was Week 9 against CLE at 7.38, on 0 targets, final score 16-41. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 7 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 20; in the 8 decided by more, 19.3. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 16.6 points per game. He scored 19.64, 14% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1MIN27-2418.6401220%100%
2CHI17-2010.2800020%100%
3PIT24-1017.5805730%100%
4JAX24-2122.3203420%100%
5GB22-2518.34031120%100%
6DET34-1122.84052030%82%
7BAL41-1726.6401030%89%
8NYJ31-3420.2601-130%100%
9CLE16-417.3802100%92%
11LV32-139.02031110%100%
12PIT41-1016.401820%85%
13LAC22-4116.601620%100%
14SF23-2622.2202320%100%
15DEN15-1012.78052510%100%
16BAL41-2138.1021140%100%
17KC34-3134.84051040%97%

Production

Carries40
Rushing yards118
Touchdowns36
Points per game19.64
Yards per carry2.95

Role

Snap share96.56%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game0.22

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share11%
Goal-line carry share15%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs1.82

Who else ate

The offense threw it 555 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Ja'Marr Chase23.7%
Tee Higgins20.37%
Tyler Boyd17.41%
C.J. Uzomah11.67%
Joe Mixon8.89%
Samaje Perine5.74%

Blowouts against close games

7 of his 16 games were blowouts, 43.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 19.57 in those and 19.96 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2020 · CIN · 10 games

His best game was Week 7 against CLE — 33.64 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 34-37. His worst was Week 5 against BAL at 4.32, on 0 targets, final score 3-27. Across 10 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 21.1; in the 4 decided by more, 11.8. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 21.8 points per game. He scored 17.37, 20.3% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1LAC13-1616.32084610%100%
2CLE30-3524.54071930%100%
3PHI23-2320.3801-120%99%
4JAX33-2515.1041110%100%
5BAL3-274.32031000%100%
6IND27-3116.7203210%100%
7CLE34-3733.64063440%100%
8TEN31-2018.8603920%100%
10PIT10-3612.5200010%100%
11WAS9-2011.32021210%74%

Production

Carries37
Rushing yards142
Touchdowns16
Points per game17.37
Yards per carry3.84

Role

Snap share97.3%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game-0.01

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share14.9%
Goal-line carry share28.6%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs2.89

Who else ate

The offense threw it 581 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Tyler Boyd19.47%
Tee Higgins19.12%
A.J. Green18.41%
Giovani Bernard10.44%
Drew Sample9.38%
Joe Mixon4.6%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 10 games were blowouts, 9.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.42 in those and 21.12 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

Ask the Coach about Joe Burrow →
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