Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 17.93 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 86.7, usage worth 19.2.
28 years old · 6 seasons of experience · 2020 draft class
| SLEEPER | 83.6 |
| ESPN | 109.6 |
| YAHOO | 67.9 |
| UNDERDOG | 83 |
| CBS | 85.8 |
| FFA | 73 |
| Goes around | Round 8, pick 3 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | QB10 |
| Bye week | 7 |
| ADP standard deviation | 17.2 picks |
Our board has him at 351.5 points, 20.9 per game — 4,516 passing yards, 28.8 passing TDs, 481 rushing yards. That is QB2, 73 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 16.7 points per game to a ceiling of 28, with the median at 20.9. Boom rate 34%, bust rate 20%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 86.7 on consensus and our board has him 73. We rank him 13.7 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
the real offensive-line and personnel upgrade (a much healthier line, a new, well-regarded OC replacing the previous one) is treated as a bigger deal than public perception currently reflects. Already has a 5,000-yard passing season on his resume coming off one of the worst statistical situations of his career (historically bad line, best weapons not healthy simultaneously) — meaning a return to full health/support has real, provable precedent for his ceiling.
buy · high conviction · 2026-08Los Angeles Chargers returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing oc. Justin Herbert at quarterback, Jim Harbaugh as head coach, Mike McDaniel calling it. The offense projects to 33.5 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 27 rushes.
In: Brenen Thompson (wr4), Luke Grimm (wr7), Keaton Mitchell (rb2), Charlie Kolar (te2). Out: Keenan Allen (wr3), Tyler Conklin (te2).
The projected target split across the offense:
| Ladd McConkey | 24.2% |
| Quentin Johnston | 18.9% |
| Tre' Harris | 13.3% |
| Oronde Gadsden | 10.6% |
| Omarion Hampton | 10% |
| Brenen Thompson | 8.6% |
What the offense looks like: The top targets and back in this offense will be STELLAR fantasy assets in 2026 and beyond. Herbert SHOULD have a killer season in 2026.
Key additions: Joe Alt & Slater are back. This offense should do a complete 180. Joe Alt & Slater return in 2026 from injury & Chargers add Jake Slaughter LG in the 2nd round of 2026 draft. Sign Tyler Biadasz C, and RG Cole Strange. Entire different O ine from later year. Signed RB Keaton Mitchell to 2 year deal. Signed FB Alex Ingold from Miami. Biggest change is teh offensive Genius Mike McDaniel is the new OC.
Key departures: Keenan Allen remains a free agent and is not currently expected back with the Chargers
Notes: Chargers bring in Mike McDaniel as offensvie coordinator who could SUPERCHARGE offense. Herbert ascending as top 7 dynasty QB. Keenan Allen remains a free agent. Ladd & QJ should operate as 1A & 1B with Ladd having more potential. Tre' Harris should operate as WR3 if no one else is brought in. TE Oronde Gadsden could be very good. RB room is complex. Hampton is the presumed starter week 1 with massive potential but Vidal has been very capable as a back up & chargers also signed Keaton Mitchell to 2 year deal in free agency. Question mark people should think about in usage. Thompson round 4.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Justin Herbert returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.5 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.5 att/g; New OC Mike McDaniel — pass rate and tempo may shift.
Base case 274.7 PPR points, with a bear case of 127.8 and a bull case of 379.4, and a comp mean of 251.6. The model puts 55% probability on him beating this and 45% on falling short. Drawn from 20 comparable quarterback seasons.
| Comparable season | What he actually scored | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton 2014 | 447 | 0.3 |
| Gardner Minshew 2019 | 160.7 | 0.3 |
| Mitchell Trubisky 2018 | 202.8 | 0.3 |
| Trevor Lawrence 2023 | 145.7 | 0.4 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick 2015 | 133.4 | 0.4 |
Cross-check against the dynasty market: his production ranks in the 62th percentile and his value in the 69th, which the engine reads as in line. Players with a similar production-against-value gap saw dynasty value move -13.4% over the following year, across 81 cases — a dynasty signal, not a 2026 scoring one.
Offensive environment: LAC rates 24.3 against a league average of 23, 1.3 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -2.5 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -7.8 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | +1.1 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +0.6 · neutral |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Justin Herbert study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +8.9% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.8 elite seasons and 3.1 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 2024 | 17.5 | 66% | -24.4% |
| Russell Wilson | 2023 | 17.1 | 58% | +4.7% |
| Kyler Murray | 2023 | 18.3 | 57% | +4% |
| Daniel Jones | 2024 | 13.5 | 55% | +104.1% |
| Patrick Mahomes | 2023 | 17.5 | 52% | -12.8% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 2 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2020, round 1, pick 6 by LAC |
| College | Oregon |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′6″ |
| Weight | 236 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.68s |
| Vertical | 35.5″ |
| Broad jump | 123″ |
| 3-cone | 7.06s |
| Shuttle | 4.46s |
| Career PPR per game | 18.9 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.4 |
| Boom rate | 16.9% |
| Bust rate | 15.6% |
| Games missed per season | 0 |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.25 |
His best game was Week 16 against DAL — 30.2 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 34-17. His worst was Week 11 against JAX at 3.34, on 0 targets, final score 6-35. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 17.4; in the 8 decided by more, 18.5. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 19.2 points per game. He scored 17.93, 9.1% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 27-21 | 27.92 | 0 | 7 | 32 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | LV | 20-9 | 18.78 | 0 | 9 | 31 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | DEN | 23-20 | 14.6 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | NYG | 18-21 | 12.52 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | WAS | 10-27 | 14.64 | 0 | 4 | 60 | 1 | 0% | 91% |
| 6 | MIA | 29-27 | 18.76 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | IND | 24-38 | 27.9 | 0 | 6 | 31 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | MIN | 37-10 | 25.28 | 0 | 7 | 62 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | TEN | 27-20 | 27.7 | 0 | 9 | 57 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | PIT | 25-10 | 14.7 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | JAX | 6-35 | 3.34 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 0% | 73% |
| 13 | LV | 31-14 | 12.84 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 85% |
| 14 | PHI | 22-19 | 12.16 | 0 | 10 | 66 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | KC | 16-13 | 10.4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | DAL | 34-17 | 30.2 | 0 | 8 | 42 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | HOU | 16-20 | 15.14 | 0 | 6 | 37 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| Carries | 83 |
| Rushing yards | 498 |
| Touchdowns | 28 |
| Points per game | 17.93 |
| Yards per carry | 6 |
| Snap share | 96.81% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.99 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 17.9% |
| Goal-line carry share | 18.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 2.48 |
The offense threw it 569 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Keenan Allen | 22.63% |
| Ladd McConkey | 19.67% |
| Quentin Johnston | 15.58% |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 12.8% |
| Tre Harris | 7.98% |
| Omarion Hampton | 6.49% |
5 of his 16 games were blowouts, 30.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 17.26 in those and 17.4 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 18 against LV — 28.04 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 34-20. His worst was Week 13 against ATL at 7.98, on 0 targets, final score 17-13. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 15.7; in the 9 decided by more, 17.8. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 16.3 points per game. He scored 16.79, 0.8% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV | 22-10 | 10.36 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | CAR | 26-3 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | PIT | 10-20 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 78% |
| 4 | KC | 10-17 | 11.16 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | DEN | 23-16 | 13.68 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | ARI | 15-17 | 14.76 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | NO | 26-8 | 24.06 | 0 | 4 | 49 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | CLE | 27-10 | 19.48 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | TEN | 27-17 | 19.76 | 0 | 9 | 32 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | CIN | 34-27 | 24.38 | 0 | 5 | 65 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | BAL | 23-30 | 17.62 | 0 | 4 | 29 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | ATL | 17-13 | 7.98 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 14 | KC | 17-19 | 13.72 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 0% | 98% |
| 15 | TB | 17-40 | 13.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 98% |
| 16 | DEN | 34-27 | 22.16 | 0 | 8 | 28 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | NE | 40-7 | 24.44 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 87% |
| 18 | LV | 34-20 | 28.04 | 0 | 4 | 42 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| Carries | 69 |
| Rushing yards | 306 |
| Touchdowns | 25 |
| Points per game | 16.79 |
| Yards per carry | 4.43 |
| Snap share | 97.71% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.25 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 8.8% |
| Goal-line carry share | 11.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.52 |
The offense threw it 509 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Ladd McConkey | 23.05% |
| Quentin Johnston | 18.72% |
| Josh Palmer | 13.37% |
| Will Dissly | 13.17% |
| J.K. Dobbins | 7.82% |
| Stone Smartt | 3.91% |
5 of his 17 games were blowouts, 32.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 18.56 in those and 15.68 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 3 against MIN — 29.3 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 28-24. His worst was Week 14 against DEN at 1.84, on 0 targets, final score 7-24. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 7 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 22.1; in the 5 decided by more, 11.4. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 17.9 points per game. He scored 18.01, 0.6% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | 34-36 | 20.86 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | TEN | 24-27 | 22.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | MIN | 28-24 | 29.3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | LV | 24-17 | 23.38 | 0 | 12 | 27 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | DAL | 17-20 | 19.08 | 10 | 6 | 20 | 2 | 2.7% | 100% |
| 7 | KC | 17-31 | 10.86 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | CHI | 30-13 | 24.02 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | NYJ | 27-6 | 7.14 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | DET | 38-41 | 28.42 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | GB | 20-23 | 25.7 | 0 | 8 | 73 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | BAL | 10-20 | 13.38 | 0 | 4 | 47 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | NE | 6-0 | 7.98 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 14 | DEN | 7-24 | 1.84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 46% |
| Receptions | 1 |
| Targets | 1 |
| Receiving yards | 10 |
| Carries | 52 |
| Rushing yards | 228 |
| Touchdowns | 23 |
| Points per game | 18.01 |
| Yards per target | 10 |
| Catch rate | 100% |
| Yards per carry | 4.38 |
| Snap share | 95.85% |
| Target share | 0.21% |
| Air-yards share | -0.21% |
| WOPR | 0.002 |
| Average depth of target | -7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 17 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -7 |
| Total YAC | 17 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 108.3 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.14 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.41 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 15.1% |
| Goal-line carry share | 18.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 2.5 |
The offense threw it 632 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Keenan Allen | 24.47% |
| Austin Ekeler | 12.07% |
| Gerald Everett | 11.42% |
| Quentin Johnston | 10.93% |
| Josh Palmer | 9.95% |
| Donald Parham | 6.69% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 12 | 1 | 19.36 | 10 | 0.23% |
| Easton Stick | 1 | 0 | 1.84 | — | 0% |
3 of his 13 games were blowouts, 14.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11 in those and 22.11 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 12 against ARI — 28.76 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 25-24. His worst was Week 16 against IND at 5.5, on 0 targets, final score 20-3. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 12 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 17.3; in the 5 decided by more, 14.8. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 20.1 points per game. He scored 16.54, 17.7% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV | 24-19 | 23.26 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | KC | 24-27 | 23.46 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0% | 99% |
| 3 | JAX | 10-38 | 12.58 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | HOU | 34-24 | 21.1 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | CLE | 30-28 | 14.42 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | DEN | 19-16 | 8.42 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | SEA | 23-37 | 18.12 | -8 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 2% | 100% |
| 9 | ATL | 20-17 | 12.1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | SF | 16-22 | 12.04 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 1 | 0% | 95% |
| 11 | KC | 27-30 | 19.7 | -2 | 5 | 17 | 2 | 3.4% | 100% |
| 12 | ARI | 25-24 | 28.76 | 0 | 4 | 38 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | LV | 20-27 | 18.1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 14 | MIA | 23-17 | 19.48 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | TEN | 17-14 | 8.72 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | IND | 20-3 | 5.5 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | LA | 31-10 | 16.68 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0% | 80% |
| 18 | DEN | 28-31 | 18.82 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 0% | 81% |
| Receptions | 2 |
| Targets | 2 |
| Receiving yards | -10 |
| Carries | 54 |
| Rushing yards | 147 |
| Touchdowns | 25 |
| Points per game | 16.54 |
| Yards per target | -5 |
| Catch rate | 100% |
| Yards per carry | 2.72 |
| Snap share | 97.35% |
| Target share | 0.32% |
| Air-yards share | -0.32% |
| WOPR | 0.002 |
| Average depth of target | -7.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -7.5 |
| Total YAC | 5 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 79.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.16 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.6 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 0.9% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 7.2% |
| Goal-line carry share | 10% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.45 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.45 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.08 |
The offense threw it 711 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Austin Ekeler | 18.54% |
| Josh Palmer | 15.62% |
| Mike Williams | 13.58% |
| Keenan Allen | 12.99% |
| Gerald Everett | 12.7% |
| DeAndre Carter | 9.49% |
3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 12.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11.59 in those and 17.27 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 5 against CLE — 42.82 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 47-42. His worst was Week 6 against BAL at 11, on 0 targets, final score 6-34. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 9 times and came in under 8 points 0 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 24.4; in the 7 decided by more, 19.5. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 20.4 points per game. He scored 22.4, 10.5% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS | 20-16 | 13.38 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | DAL | 17-20 | 14.72 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | KC | 30-24 | 30.84 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | LV | 28-14 | 21.28 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | CLE | 47-42 | 42.82 | 0 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | BAL | 6-34 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | NE | 24-27 | 13.82 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | PHI | 27-24 | 31.64 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | MIN | 20-27 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | PIT | 41-37 | 34.28 | 0 | 9 | 90 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | DEN | 13-28 | 19.72 | 0 | 4 | 36 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | CIN | 41-22 | 25.28 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 14 | NYG | 37-21 | 24.9 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 3 | 0% | 93% |
| 15 | KC | 28-34 | 23.04 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | HOU | 29-41 | 16.94 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | DEN | 34-13 | 17.68 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 18 | LV | 32-35 | 27.42 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| Carries | 63 |
| Rushing yards | 302 |
| Touchdowns | 41 |
| Points per game | 22.4 |
| Yards per carry | 4.79 |
| Snap share | 99.59% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.06 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.66 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 15.6% |
| Goal-line carry share | 12% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 2.16 |
The offense threw it 673 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Keenan Allen | 23.97% |
| Mike Williams | 19.69% |
| Austin Ekeler | 14.35% |
| Jared Cook | 12.67% |
| Josh Palmer | 7.48% |
| Jalen Guyton | 7.33% |
3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 14.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 17.99 in those and 24.4 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 7 against JAX — 38.48 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 39-29. His worst was Week 13 against NE at 4.36, on 0 targets, final score 0-45. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 10 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 21.9; in the 4 decided by more, 23.1. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 21.4 points per game. He scored 22.19, 3.6% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | KC | 20-23 | 22.24 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | CAR | 16-21 | 14.7 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | TB | 31-38 | 23 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | NO | 27-30 | 27.36 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | JAX | 39-29 | 38.48 | 0 | 9 | 66 | 4 | 0% | 98% |
| 8 | DEN | 30-31 | 21.22 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | LV | 26-31 | 23.44 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 2 | 0% | 99% |
| 10 | MIA | 21-29 | 20.48 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 98% |
| 11 | NYJ | 34-28 | 27.74 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | BUF | 17-27 | 16.44 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | NE | 0-45 | 4.36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 14 | ATL | 20-17 | 15.72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | LV | 30-27 | 27.96 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | DEN | 19-16 | 16.72 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | KC | 38-21 | 32.98 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| Carries | 55 |
| Rushing yards | 234 |
| Touchdowns | 36 |
| Points per game | 22.19 |
| Yards per carry | 4.25 |
| Snap share | 99.67% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.02 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 16.7% |
| Goal-line carry share | 32% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 4.02 |
The offense threw it 627 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Keenan Allen | 24.34% |
| Hunter Henry | 15.4% |
| Mike Williams | 14.07% |
| Austin Ekeler | 10.76% |
| Jalen Guyton | 9.11% |
| Kalen Ballage | 4.47% |
2 of his 15 games were blowouts, 11.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 18.67 in those and 21.87 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
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