Charts· TE touchdown regression

Touchdowns over expected (2026, Weeks 1–9), min. 27 targets

33 TEs with 27+ targets, ranked by TDs over expected (season) through Week 9 of 2026. Top: Isaiah Likely (+3.3), Pat Freiermuth (+2.5) and Darren Waller (+2.4). Bottom: Cade Otton (-1.6), Dalton Schultz (-1.2) and Colston Loveland (-1.0).

Expected TDs = every carry and target priced by where it happened

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33TEs ranked

1–9weeks of 2026

27min. targets

+3.3#1 Isaiah Likely

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33 TEs · 1602 characters

TE TOUCHDOWN REGRESSION

Touchdowns over expected (2026, Weeks 1–9), min. 27 targets

1. Isaiah Likely (NYG) +3.3 (6 TD, 2.8 exp)
2. Pat Freiermuth (PIT) +2.5 (5 TD, 2.5 exp)
3. Darren Waller (CAR) +2.4 (4 TD, 1.6 exp)
4. Jake Ferguson (DAL) +2.1 (4 TD, 1.9 exp)
5. Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE) +2.0 (4 TD, 2.0 exp)
6. Kyle Pitts (ATL) +2.0 (4 TD, 2.0 exp)
7. Tommy Tremble (CAR) +1.8 (3 TD, 1.3 exp)
8. Brock Bowers (LV) +1.7 (6 TD, 4.3 exp)
9. George Kittle (SF) +1.6 (5 TD, 3.4 exp)
10. Dallas Goedert (PHI) +1.3 (2 TD, 0.7 exp)
11. Juwan Johnson (NO) +1.3 (4 TD, 2.7 exp)
12. Travis Kelce (KC) +1.2 (3 TD, 1.8 exp)
13. Tyler Warren (IND) +1.2 (3 TD, 1.8 exp)
14. Darnell Washington (PIT) +0.9 (3 TD, 2.1 exp)
15. T.J. Hockenson (MIN) +0.8 (3 TD, 2.2 exp)
16. Kenyon Sadiq (NYJ) +0.8 (2 TD, 1.3 exp)
17. Dalton Kincaid (BUF) +0.7 (2 TD, 1.3 exp)
18. Hunter Henry (NE) +0.4 (2 TD, 1.6 exp)
19. Tyler Higbee (LAR) +0.1 (1 TD, 0.9 exp)
20. Brenton Strange (JAX) +0.1 (1 TD, 0.9 exp)
21. Tucker Kraft (GB) +0.0 (3 TD, 3.0 exp)
22. Evan Engram (DEN) -0.1 (1 TD, 1.1 exp)
23. Sam LaPorta (DET) -0.3 (3 TD, 3.3 exp)
24. Michael Mayer (LV) -0.3 (1 TD, 1.3 exp)
25. AJ Barner (SEA) -0.4 (3 TD, 3.4 exp)
26. Trey McBride (ARI) -0.5 (5 TD, 5.5 exp)
27. Oronde Gadsden II (LAC) -0.5 (1 TD, 1.5 exp)
28. Greg Dulcich (MIA) -0.8 (0 TD, 0.8 exp)
29. Chig Okonkwo (WAS) -0.8 (0 TD, 0.8 exp)
30. Mark Andrews (BAL) -0.9 (1 TD, 1.9 exp)
31. Colston Loveland (CHI) -1.0 (2 TD, 3.0 exp)
32. Dalton Schultz (HOU) -1.2 (0 TD, 1.2 exp)
33. Cade Otton (TB) -1.6 (0 TD, 1.6 exp)

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The whole ranking, 33 players: the chart shows the top and the bottom of it.

#	Player	Team	TDs over expected (season)
1	Isaiah Likely6 TD, 2.8 exp	NYG	+3.3
2	Pat Freiermuth5 TD, 2.5 exp	PIT	+2.5
3	Darren Waller4 TD, 1.6 exp	CAR	+2.4
4	Jake Ferguson4 TD, 1.9 exp	DAL	+2.1
5	Harold Fannin Jr.4 TD, 2.0 exp	CLE	+2.0
6	Kyle Pitts4 TD, 2.0 exp	ATL	+2.0
7	Tommy Tremble3 TD, 1.3 exp	CAR	+1.8
8	Brock Bowers6 TD, 4.3 exp	LV	+1.7
9	George Kittle5 TD, 3.4 exp	SF	+1.6
10	Dallas Goedert2 TD, 0.7 exp	PHI	+1.3
11	Juwan Johnson4 TD, 2.7 exp	NO	+1.3
12	Travis Kelce3 TD, 1.8 exp	KC	+1.2
13	Tyler Warren3 TD, 1.8 exp	IND	+1.2
14	Darnell Washington3 TD, 2.1 exp	PIT	+0.9
15	T.J. Hockenson3 TD, 2.2 exp	MIN	+0.8
16	Kenyon Sadiq2 TD, 1.3 exp	NYJ	+0.8
17	Dalton Kincaid2 TD, 1.3 exp	BUF	+0.7
18	Hunter Henry2 TD, 1.6 exp	NE	+0.4
19	Tyler Higbee1 TD, 0.9 exp	LAR	+0.1
20	Brenton Strange1 TD, 0.9 exp	JAX	+0.1
21	Tucker Kraft3 TD, 3.0 exp	GB	+0.0
22	Evan Engram1 TD, 1.1 exp	DEN	-0.1
23	Sam LaPorta3 TD, 3.3 exp	DET	-0.3
24	Michael Mayer1 TD, 1.3 exp	LV	-0.3
25	AJ Barner3 TD, 3.4 exp	SEA	-0.4
26	Trey McBride5 TD, 5.5 exp	ARI	-0.5
27	Oronde Gadsden II1 TD, 1.5 exp	LAC	-0.5
28	Greg Dulcich0 TD, 0.8 exp	MIA	-0.8
29	Chig Okonkwo0 TD, 0.8 exp	WAS	-0.8
30	Mark Andrews1 TD, 1.9 exp	BAL	-0.9
31	Colston Loveland2 TD, 3.0 exp	CHI	-1.0
32	Dalton Schultz0 TD, 1.2 exp	HOU	-1.2
33	Cade Otton0 TD, 1.6 exp	TB	-1.6

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Minimums scale with the season (QBs 15 attempts a week, RBs 8 carries, WRs 5 targets, TEs 3). Expected points price every carry and target by where it happened. Built from the same data as the Charts gallery; every chart saves as a 1080 × 1350 post.