Charts· RB touchdown luck

Expected TDs vs. actual TDs (2026, Weeks 1–9), min. 72 carries

30 RBs with 72+ carries through Week 9 of 2026: expected TDs across, scrimmage TDs up, split at the averages. Earning & scoring (top right): Javonte Williams, Kenneth Walker III and D'Andre Swift. Low TD role (bottom left): Aaron Jones, Cam Skattebo and Chase Brown.

Expected TDs = every carry and target priced by where it happened

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30RBs on the chart

1–9weeks of 2026

72min. carries

+0.89correlation (r)

Each logo is one player, placed by his two numbers. The dashed lines are the averages, and each corner is named for what a player in it is doing; on the diagonal the two are equal. Tap a logo or a name for the numbers, tap again to spotlight him.

The caption

30 RBs · 1242 characters

RB TOUCHDOWN LUCK

Expected TDs vs. actual TDs (2026, Weeks 1–9), min. 72 carries

↗️ EARNING & SCORING
Javonte Williams (DAL) 10.6 xTD, 10 TD
Kenneth Walker III (KC) 9.5 xTD, 11 TD
D'Andre Swift (CHI) 9.9 xTD, 10 TD
Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) 9.0 xTD, 11 TD
Christian McCaffrey (SF) 8.5 xTD, 10 TD
Derrick Henry (BAL) 8.6 xTD, 9 TD
Jonathan Taylor (IND) 7.5 xTD, 8 TD
James Cook (BUF) 6.1 xTD, 8 TD
Bucky Irving (TB) 5.5 xTD, 8 TD
Kyren Williams (LAR) 6.4 xTD, 7 TD
Tony Pollard (TEN) 6.0 xTD, 6 TD

↖️ RUNNING HOT
Bhayshul Tuten (JAX) 4.1 xTD, 7 TD
Chuba Hubbard (CAR) 5.1 xTD, 7 TD
Bijan Robinson (ATL) 5.2 xTD, 6 TD

↘️ DUE FOR TDS
Ashton Jeanty (LV) 5.9 xTD, 4 TD

↙️ LOW TD ROLE
Aaron Jones (MIN) 1.7 xTD, 2 TD
Cam Skattebo (NYG) 2.0 xTD, 2 TD
Chase Brown (CIN) 3.3 xTD, 1 TD
Jeremiyah Love (ARI) 2.5 xTD, 2 TD
Woody Marks (HOU) 2.7 xTD, 2 TD
Jaylen Warren (PIT) 2.6 xTD, 3 TD
Omarion Hampton (LAC) 3.0 xTD, 3 TD
Braelon Allen (NYJ) 3.0 xTD, 3 TD
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) 2.5 xTD, 4 TD
Tyler Allgeier (ARI) 3.6 xTD, 3 TD
Blake Corum (LAR) 2.3 xTD, 5 TD
J.K. Dobbins (DEN) 4.3 xTD, 3 TD
Quinshon Judkins (CLE) 4.9 xTD, 3 TD
Emanuel Wilson (SEA) 4.6 xTD, 4 TD
Ollie Gordon II (MIA) 5.2 xTD, 4 TD

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Every RB on the chart

Every player on the chart, grouped by corner, the same order as the caption.

Player	Team	Expected TDs	Scrimmage TDs
Earning & scoring · top right
Javonte Williams	DAL	10.6	10
Kenneth Walker III	KC	9.5	11
D'Andre Swift	CHI	9.9	10
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET	9.0	11
Christian McCaffrey	SF	8.5	10
Derrick Henry	BAL	8.6	9
Jonathan Taylor	IND	7.5	8
James Cook	BUF	6.1	8
Bucky Irving	TB	5.5	8
Kyren Williams	LAR	6.4	7
Tony Pollard	TEN	6.0	6
Running hot · top left
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX	4.1	7
Chuba Hubbard	CAR	5.1	7
Bijan Robinson	ATL	5.2	6
Due for TDs · bottom right
Ashton Jeanty	LV	5.9	4
Low TD role · bottom left
Aaron Jones	MIN	1.7	2
Cam Skattebo	NYG	2.0	2
Chase Brown	CIN	3.3	1
Jeremiyah Love	ARI	2.5	2
Woody Marks	HOU	2.7	2
Jaylen Warren	PIT	2.6	3
Omarion Hampton	LAC	3.0	3
Braelon Allen	NYJ	3.0	3
Rhamondre Stevenson	NE	2.5	4
Tyler Allgeier	ARI	3.6	3
Blake Corum	LAR	2.3	5
J.K. Dobbins	DEN	4.3	3
Quinshon Judkins	CLE	4.9	3
Emanuel Wilson	SEA	4.6	4
Ollie Gordon II	MIA	5.2	4

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Minimums scale with the season (QBs 15 attempts a week, RBs 8 carries, WRs 5 targets, TEs 3). Expected points price every carry and target by where it happened. Built from the same data as the Charts gallery; every chart saves as a 1080 × 1350 post.