Charts· TE touchdown luck

Expected TDs vs. actual TDs (2026, Weeks 1–9), min. 27 targets

33 TEs with 27+ targets through Week 9 of 2026: expected TDs across, scrimmage TDs up, split at the averages. Earning & scoring (top right): Trey McBride, Brock Bowers and Isaiah Likely. Low TD role (bottom left): Greg Dulcich, Chig Okonkwo and Dalton Schultz.

Expected TDs = every target and carry priced by where it happened

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33TEs on the chart

1–9weeks of 2026

27min. targets

+0.71correlation (r)

Each logo is one player, placed by his two numbers. The dashed lines are the averages, and each corner is named for what a player in it is doing; on the diagonal the two are equal. Tap a logo or a name for the numbers, tap again to spotlight him.

The caption

33 TEs · 1314 characters

TE TOUCHDOWN LUCK

Expected TDs vs. actual TDs (2026, Weeks 1–9), min. 27 targets

↗️ EARNING & SCORING
Trey McBride (ARI) 5.5 xTD, 5 TD
Brock Bowers (LV) 4.3 xTD, 6 TD
Isaiah Likely (NYG) 2.8 xTD, 6 TD
George Kittle (SF) 3.4 xTD, 5 TD
Pat Freiermuth (PIT) 2.5 xTD, 5 TD
Juwan Johnson (NO) 2.7 xTD, 4 TD
AJ Barner (SEA) 3.4 xTD, 3 TD
Sam LaPorta (DET) 3.3 xTD, 3 TD
Tucker Kraft (GB) 3.0 xTD, 3 TD
T.J. Hockenson (MIN) 2.2 xTD, 3 TD
Darnell Washington (PIT) 2.1 xTD, 3 TD

↖️ RUNNING HOT
Darren Waller (CAR) 1.6 xTD, 4 TD
Jake Ferguson (DAL) 1.9 xTD, 4 TD
Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE) 2.0 xTD, 4 TD
Kyle Pitts (ATL) 2.0 xTD, 4 TD
Tommy Tremble (CAR) 1.3 xTD, 3 TD
Travis Kelce (KC) 1.8 xTD, 3 TD
Tyler Warren (IND) 1.8 xTD, 3 TD

↘️ DUE FOR TDS
Colston Loveland (CHI) 3.0 xTD, 2 TD

↙️ LOW TD ROLE
Greg Dulcich (MIA) 0.8 xTD, 0 TD
Chig Okonkwo (WAS) 0.8 xTD, 0 TD
Dalton Schultz (HOU) 1.2 xTD, 0 TD
Cade Otton (TB) 1.6 xTD, 0 TD
Tyler Higbee (LAR) 0.9 xTD, 1 TD
Brenton Strange (JAX) 0.9 xTD, 1 TD
Evan Engram (DEN) 1.1 xTD, 1 TD
Michael Mayer (LV) 1.3 xTD, 1 TD
Oronde Gadsden II (LAC) 1.5 xTD, 1 TD
Dallas Goedert (PHI) 0.7 xTD, 2 TD
Mark Andrews (BAL) 1.9 xTD, 1 TD
Kenyon Sadiq (NYJ) 1.3 xTD, 2 TD
Dalton Kincaid (BUF) 1.3 xTD, 2 TD
Hunter Henry (NE) 1.6 xTD, 2 TD

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Every TE on the chart

Every player on the chart, grouped by corner, the same order as the caption.

Player	Team	Expected TDs	Scrimmage TDs
Earning & scoring · top right
Trey McBride	ARI	5.5	5
Brock Bowers	LV	4.3	6
Isaiah Likely	NYG	2.8	6
George Kittle	SF	3.4	5
Pat Freiermuth	PIT	2.5	5
Juwan Johnson	NO	2.7	4
AJ Barner	SEA	3.4	3
Sam LaPorta	DET	3.3	3
Tucker Kraft	GB	3.0	3
T.J. Hockenson	MIN	2.2	3
Darnell Washington	PIT	2.1	3
Running hot · top left
Darren Waller	CAR	1.6	4
Jake Ferguson	DAL	1.9	4
Harold Fannin Jr.	CLE	2.0	4
Kyle Pitts	ATL	2.0	4
Tommy Tremble	CAR	1.3	3
Travis Kelce	KC	1.8	3
Tyler Warren	IND	1.8	3
Due for TDs · bottom right
Colston Loveland	CHI	3.0	2
Low TD role · bottom left
Greg Dulcich	MIA	0.8	0
Chig Okonkwo	WAS	0.8	0
Dalton Schultz	HOU	1.2	0
Cade Otton	TB	1.6	0
Tyler Higbee	LAR	0.9	1
Brenton Strange	JAX	0.9	1
Evan Engram	DEN	1.1	1
Michael Mayer	LV	1.3	1
Oronde Gadsden II	LAC	1.5	1
Dallas Goedert	PHI	0.7	2
Mark Andrews	BAL	1.9	1
Kenyon Sadiq	NYJ	1.3	2
Dalton Kincaid	BUF	1.3	2
Hunter Henry	NE	1.6	2

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Minimums scale with the season (QBs 15 attempts a week, RBs 8 carries, WRs 5 targets, TEs 3). Expected points price every carry and target by where it happened. Built from the same data as the Charts gallery; every chart saves as a 1080 × 1350 post.