Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 4.02 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 192.5, usage worth 3.3.
23 years old · 1 season of experience · 2025 draft class
| SLEEPER | 213.7 |
| ESPN | 171.3 |
| UNDERDOG | 215.2 |
| FFA | 227 |
| Goes around | Round 16, pick 13 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR149 |
| ADP standard deviation | 30 picks |
Our board has him at 98.8 points, 6 per game — 37.9 catches, 450 yards, 1.8 TDs. That is WR6, 218 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 4.3 points per game to a ceiling of 11.9, with the median at 6. Boom rate 98%, bust rate 28%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 192.5 on consensus and our board has him 218. We rank him 25.5 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
Houston Texans returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing rb1. CJ Stroud at quarterback, Demeco Ryans as head coach, Nick Caley calling it. The offense projects to 34 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 27.5 rushes.
In: Nathaniel Dell (wr3), Lewis Bond (wr7), David Montgomery (rb1), Noah Whittington (rb4), Foster Moreau (te2). Out: Nick Chubb (rb2), Cade Stover (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 7.1%, with a bear case of 4.7% and a bull case of 9% and a full range of 1.8% to 10.1%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Nico Collins | 21.3% |
| Dalton Schultz | 14% |
| Jayden Higgins | 11.5% |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 8.6% |
| Jaylin Noel ← | 7.1% |
| Nathaniel Dell | 6.2% |
What the offense looks like: If this offense could produce at a higher level than 2025, this will be an offense you want to have pieces of. David Montgomery COULD be a very interesting high end RB2 as long as RB Woody Marks does not eat into his PT too much. Houston also has arguably the best defense in the entire NFL. they will keep them in every game & force turnovers to get this offense the ball back.
Key additions: Texans signed starting LG Wyatt Teller & starting RT Braden Smith this offseason. Also drafted C Keylan Rutledge in the 1st round. all 3 upgrades to last year. Should help protect CJ Stroud & HOPEFULLY GET A RUN GAME GOING IN HOUSTON. Traded for Lions RB David Montgomery. Joe mixon saw great success in 2024 & Montgomery COULD see a high degree of success too. Drafted WR Lewis Bond as well who does not have immediate upside.
Notes: Nico Collins remains a high producing dynasty WR when CJ Stroud plays well. Texans have to improve O line play for offense to provide large fantasy relevance. Traded for David Montgomery from the Lions & He will operate as RB1 with Woody Marks expected to also work in. CJ Stroud has struggled since his rookie season & is a mid range QB2 most weeks in fantasy. Texans do expect to extend him long term despite poor play. Jayden Higgins is an interesting year 2 breakout candidate but Tank Dell also returns in 2026 (We will see if his knee still works).
How the volume number was reached: Same QB CJ Stroud returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (34.2 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 34 att/g.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~22, prior share 7.2%, same team, OC continuity. Distribution: median 9.3%, p25-p75 [5.2%, 12.7%], tails [0.0%, 14.5%]. Closest comps: Skyy Moore 2022→2023 (KC: 7.7%→8.2%); David Bell 2023→2024 (CLE: 8.4%→9.1%); Deonte Harty 2020→2021 (NO: 9.3%→15.1%).
self-anchored 30% to own 7.2% role (1yr), 70% to comp median 9.3%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: HOU rates 22.5 against a league average of 23, 0.5 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +3.2 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | +6.5 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | +3.8 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -6.2 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -21.3% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dyami Brown | 2022 | 3.6 | 75% | +12.9% |
| Jalin Hyatt | 2024 | 1.4 | 70% | -0.8% |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 2023 | 4.7 | 67% | +21.6% |
| Danny Gray | 2022 | 0.4 | 66% | -22.7% |
| Adonai Mitchell | 2024 | 3.2 | 64% | +13.9% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 1 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2025, round 3, pick 79 by HOU |
| College | Iowa St. |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| Height | 5′10″ |
| Weight | 194 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.39s |
| Vertical | 41.5″ |
| Broad jump | 134″ |
| 3-cone | 6.82s |
| Shuttle | 4.17s |
His best game was Week 17 against LAC — 14.6 PPR on 4 targets and a 15.4% target share, in a game that finished 20-16. His worst was Week 9 against DEN at -0.3, on 0 targets, final score 15-18. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 12 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 3.6; in the 5 decided by more, 5.1. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 3.3 points per game. He scored 4.02, 8.2% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 9-14 | 1.7 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 7.4% | 27% |
| 2 | TB | 19-20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 31% |
| 3 | JAX | 10-17 | 1.4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2.8% | 14% |
| 4 | TEN | 26-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 3.6% | 24% |
| 5 | BAL | 44-10 | 9.8 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 9.7% | 30% |
| 7 | SEA | 19-27 | 11.7 | 4 | 7 | 77 | 0 | 15.2% | 43% |
| 8 | SF | 26-15 | 11.3 | 5 | 6 | 63 | 0 | 15.8% | 39% |
| 9 | DEN | 15-18 | -0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 15% |
| 10 | JAX | 36-29 | 7.5 | 4 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 9.1% | 33% |
| 11 | TEN | 16-13 | 2.2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 2.5% | 26% |
| 12 | BUF | 23-19 | 1.9 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 7.1% | 29% |
| 13 | IND | 20-16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.1% | 24% |
| 14 | KC | 20-10 | 3.3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 7.4% | 36% |
| 15 | ARI | 40-20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 16% |
| 16 | LV | 23-21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 14% |
| 17 | LAC | 20-16 | 14.6 | 3 | 4 | 54 | 1 | 15.4% | 25% |
| 18 | IND | 38-30 | 2.3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3.6% | 16% |
| Receptions | 26 |
| Targets | 35 |
| Receiving yards | 292 |
| Carries | 6 |
| Rushing yards | 12 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 4.02 |
| Yards per target | 8.34 |
| Catch rate | 74.29% |
| Yards per carry | 2 |
| Snap share | 26% |
| Target share | 6.04% |
| Air-yards share | 5.64% |
| WOPR | 0.131 |
| RACR | 0.719 |
| Average depth of target | 9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7.4 |
| Total YAC | 99 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 105.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.83 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.18 |
| Red-zone targets | 5 |
| Red-zone target share | 6% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 2.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.6 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.6 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.09 |
The offense threw it 582 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Nico Collins | 21.7% |
| Dalton Schultz | 19.17% |
| Jayden Higgins | 12.3% |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 10.31% |
| Christian Kirk | 9.4% |
| Woody Marks | 6.51% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 13 | 28 | 4.39 | 8.61 | 6.46% |
| Davis Mills | 4 | 7 | 2.83 | 7.29 | 4.67% |
3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 15.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.6 in those and 3.58 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Jaylin Noel →