Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 8.86 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 187.4, usage worth 6.3.
24 years old · 3 seasons of experience · 2023 draft class
| SLEEPER | 215.2 |
| ESPN | 170.4 |
| UNDERDOG | 197.8 |
| CBS | 176.5 |
| FFA | 175 |
| Goes around | Round 16, pick 7 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR146 |
| Bye week | 11 |
| ADP standard deviation | 24.3 picks |
Our board has him at 120.3 points, 7.3 per game — 40.3 catches, 584 yards, 3.6 TDs. That is WR6, 172 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 3.2 points per game to a ceiling of 12.5, with the median at 7.3. Boom rate 71%, bust rate 57%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 187.4 on consensus and our board has him 172. We rank him 15.4 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
New England Patriots returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, rb1. Drake Maye at quarterback, Mike Vrabel as head coach, Josh McDaniels calling it. The offense projects to 30.7 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 28.3 rushes.
In: Tommy DeVito (qb2), A.J. Brown (wr1), Romeo Doubs (wr2), Jam Miller (rb3), Lan Larison (rb4), Eli Raridon (te2). Out: Stefon Diggs (wr1), Antonio Gibson (rb3), Austin Hooper (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 10.5%, with a bear case of 9.3% and a bull case of 11.6% and a full range of 8.8% to 12.9%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| A.J. Brown | 23.1% |
| Kayshon Boutte ← | 10.5% |
| Hunter Henry | 9.9% |
| Demario Douglas | 9.7% |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 9.4% |
| Romeo Doubs | 9.3% |
What the offense looks like: This is an offense that is only getting better. TreVeyon Henderson COULD become the true featured RB on this high powered offense. AJ Brown could produce 2-3 more years at a VERY high level before fading. Romeo Doubs fits in very well and if his connection builds with Maye, he could be a very viable WR2 in PPR formats.
Key additions: Romeo Doubs WR from GB on 4 year deal, AJ Brown traded to Patriots by Eagles in June 2026 (will be teams WR1 in 2026). Drafted Caleb Lomu 1st round LT. Drafted TE Eli Raridon 3rd round. Drafted RB Jam Miller 7th round.
Key departures: WR Stefon Diggs (released), RB Antonio Gibson (released), TE Austin Hooper (signed with Falcons), OT Vederian Lowe signed with 49ers (depth)
Notes: Maye dynasty franchise QB. Patriots signed Romeo Doubs from Packers (huge potential and solid player could be WR2). The Patriots WILL trade for AJ Brown from Eagles & he will be their WR1 next year. He has MASSIVE potential with Drake Maye. Henderson should operate as lead back in 2026, but Vrabel has done strange things with playing time for backs & Stevenson will work in. Henry is still TE1, but drafted Raridon round 3 TE — Vrabel uses TEs.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Drake Maye returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (29.5 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30.7 att/g.
25 historical comps for WRs age ~24, prior share 14.3%, same team, OC continuity. Distribution: median 12.8%, p25-p75 [9.9%, 15.3%], tails [8.7%, 18.3%]. Closest comps: Marquez Valdes-Scantling 2022→2023 (KC: 14.1%→8.2%); Romeo Doubs 2024→2025 (GB: 17.9%→19.5%); Nelson Agholor 2021→2022 (NE: 16.2%→12.4%). Adjustment: flat from opportunity_breakout (volume must hold)
self-anchored 45% to own 14.3% role (2yr), 55% to comp median 12.8%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: NE rates 24.2 against a league average of 23, 1.2 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -3.2 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -0.7 · neutral |
| Weeks 12–17 | -12.5 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -4 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2 | Stefon Diggs | +9.9 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +37.3% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, WRs crash the following year 40% of the time (hold 60%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 40% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Iosivas | 2024 | 7.1 | 78% | -10.8% |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 2021 | 8.4 | 78% | +47.5% |
| Parker Washington | 2024 | 6.9 | 75% | +81.5% |
| Quez Watkins | 2022 | 5 | 72% | -26.5% |
| Cedrick Wilson | 2021 | 10.6 | 72% | -62% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2023, round 6, pick 187 by NWE |
| College | LSU |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Height | 5′11″ |
| Weight | 195 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.5s |
| Vertical | 29″ |
| Broad jump | 118″ |
| Shuttle | 4.25s |
| Career PPR per game | 9 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.8 |
| Boom rate | 21.7% |
| Bust rate | 26.1% |
| Games missed per season | 1 |
| Injury history | Hamstring, Concussion |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | -0.03 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 6 against NO — 26.3 PPR on 5 targets and a 20.8% target share, in a game that finished 25-19. His worst was Week 9 against ATL at 0, on 1 targets, final score 24-23. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.2; in the 5 decided by more, 10.1. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 6.3 points per game. He scored 8.86, 38.3% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV | 13-20 | 16.3 | 6 | 8 | 103 | 0 | 17.8% | 82% |
| 2 | MIA | 33-27 | 8.6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 1 | 4.3% | 72% |
| 3 | PIT | 14-21 | 4.8 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 8.3% | 76% |
| 4 | CAR | 42-13 | 2.8 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 17.6% | 69% |
| 5 | BUF | 23-20 | 7.3 | 3 | 3 | 43 | 0 | 10.7% | 62% |
| 6 | NO | 25-19 | 26.3 | 5 | 5 | 93 | 2 | 20.8% | 67% |
| 7 | TEN | 31-13 | 13.5 | 2 | 2 | 55 | 1 | 8.3% | 71% |
| 8 | CLE | 32-13 | 16.5 | 3 | 5 | 75 | 1 | 21.7% | 74% |
| 9 | ATL | 24-23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.6% | 26% |
| 12 | CIN | 26-20 | 3.5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 6.1% | 80% |
| 13 | NYG | 33-15 | 13.5 | 4 | 5 | 35 | 1 | 16.7% | 75% |
| 15 | BUF | 31-35 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 | 4.5% | 75% |
| 16 | BAL | 28-24 | 2.6 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 7.1% | 58% |
| 18 | MIA | 38-10 | 4.4 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 20% | 58% |
| Receptions | 33 |
| Targets | 46 |
| Receiving yards | 551 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 8.86 |
| Yards per target | 11.98 |
| Catch rate | 71.74% |
| Snap share | 67.5% |
| Target share | 11.96% |
| Air-yards share | 21.54% |
| WOPR | 0.331 |
| RACR | 0.757 |
| Average depth of target | 17 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 1.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 15.5 |
| Total YAC | 38 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 133.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.63 |
| Red-zone targets | 5 |
| Red-zone target share | 7% |
| End-zone target share | 10.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.46 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.54 |
The offense threw it 502 times. He took 9.6% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Stefon Diggs | 21.29% |
| Hunter Henry | 18.16% |
| Mack Hollins | 13.57% |
| Kayshon Boutte ← | 9.6% |
| Demario Douglas | 9.6% |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 8.77% |
5 of his 14 games were blowouts, 40.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.14 in those and 8.16 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 18 against BUF — 24.7 PPR on 7 targets and a 25% target share, in a game that finished 23-16. His worst was Week 3 against NYJ at 1.2, on 2 targets, final score 3-24. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11.2; in the 8 decided by more, 5.4. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 8 points per game. He scored 8.13, 1.2% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 1.25 expected, a gap of -1.2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | NYJ | 3-24 | 1.2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8.3% | 35% |
| 4 | SF | 13-30 | 2.1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3.1% | 23% |
| 5 | MIA | 10-15 | 5.4 | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 6.7% | 67% |
| 6 | HOU | 21-41 | 14.9 | 3 | 3 | 59 | 1 | 9.7% | 83% |
| 7 | JAX | 16-32 | 4.3 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 0 | 5.6% | 83% |
| 8 | NYJ | 25-22 | 7.6 | 3 | 6 | 46 | 0 | 20.7% | 82% |
| 9 | TEN | 17-20 | 3.8 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 15.4% | 96% |
| 10 | CHI | 19-3 | 8.7 | 4 | 6 | 47 | 0 | 26.1% | 97% |
| 11 | LA | 22-28 | 7.3 | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 | 16.2% | 96% |
| 12 | MIA | 15-34 | 1.6 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 10.8% | 87% |
| 13 | IND | 24-25 | 9.1 | 3 | 6 | 41 | 0 | 20% | 99% |
| 15 | ARI | 17-30 | 3.9 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 21.7% | 88% |
| 16 | BUF | 21-24 | 20.5 | 5 | 7 | 95 | 1 | 22.6% | 88% |
| 17 | LAC | 7-40 | 6.8 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 21.7% | 77% |
| 18 | BUF | 23-16 | 24.7 | 7 | 7 | 117 | 1 | 25% | 70% |
| Receptions | 43 |
| Targets | 68 |
| Receiving yards | 589 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 8.13 |
| Yards per target | 8.66 |
| Catch rate | 63.24% |
| Snap share | 78.07% |
| Target share | 15.57% |
| Air-yards share | 28.69% |
| WOPR | 0.435 |
| RACR | 0.75 |
| Average depth of target | 14.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 10.2 |
| Total YAC | 150 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 93.3 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.38 |
| Red-zone targets | 4 |
| Red-zone target share | 6.5% |
| End-zone target share | 8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.25 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.25 |
The offense threw it 529 times. He took 13.65% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Hunter Henry | 19.48% |
| Demario Douglas | 17.47% |
| Kayshon Boutte ← | 13.65% |
| Austin Hooper | 11.85% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 8.23% |
| Kendrick Bourne | 7.63% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 10 | 50 | 8.09 | 7.58 | 16.98% |
| Jacoby Brissett | 4 | 11 | 4.07 | 8.45 | 9.7% |
| Joe Milton | 1 | 7 | 24.7 | 16.71 | 25% |
5 of his 15 games were blowouts, 21.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.32 in those and 11.2 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His usage that season was worth 4 points per game. He scored 1.3, 67.5% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 20-25 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7.4% | 69% |
| 10 | IND | 6-10 | 2.1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3.8% | 38% |
| 12 | NYG | 7-10 | 1.8 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 5.7% | 16% |
| Receptions | 2 |
| Targets | 7 |
| Receiving yards | 19 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 1.3 |
| Yards per target | 2.71 |
| Catch rate | 28.57% |
| Snap share | 41% |
| Target share | 5.63% |
| Air-yards share | 17.9% |
| WOPR | 0.21 |
| RACR | 0.49 |
| Average depth of target | 17.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 4.5 |
| Total YAC | 10 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.3% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 39.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.9 |
| Red-zone targets | 2 |
| Red-zone target share | 5% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.27 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.27 |
The offense threw it 557 times. 0 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Demario Douglas | 14.6% |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 12.01% |
| Hunter Henry | 11.28% |
| DeVante Parker | 10.17% |
| Kendrick Bourne | 10.17% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 9.43% |