Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 5.26 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 198.3, usage worth 8.8.
29 years old · 8 seasons of experience · 2018 draft class
| SLEEPER | 241.7 |
| ESPN | 170.5 |
| UNDERDOG | 215.5 |
| CBS | 182.8 |
| FFA | 290 |
| Goes around | Round 17, pick 6 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR154 |
| Bye week | 8 |
| ADP standard deviation | 38.1 picks |
Our board has him at 56.9 points, 3.5 per game — 24 catches, 293 yards, 0.6 TDs. That is WR6, 272 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 2.4 points per game to a ceiling of 5.1, with the median at 3.5. Boom rate 48%, bust rate 31%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 198.3 on consensus and our board has him 272. We rank him 73.7 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
San Francisco 49ers returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1. Brock Purdy at quarterback, Kyle Shanahan as head coach, Klay Kubiak calling it. The offense projects to 33.7 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 27.7 rushes.
In: Mike Evans (wr1), De'Zhaun Stribling (wr2), Christian Kirk (wr4), Jacob Cowing (wr7), Kaelon Black (rb2). Out: Jauan Jennings (wr1), Kendrick Bourne (wr3), Brian Robinson Jr. (rb2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 9.2%, with a bear case of 8.2% and a bull case of 11.8% and a full range of 4.3% to 12.8%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| De'Zhaun Stribling | 16.1% |
| Mike Evans | 11.8% |
| George Kittle | 11.5% |
| Ricky Pearsall | 10.4% |
| Christian Kirk ← | 9.2% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 8.9% |
Key additions: Signed WR Mike Evans from Bucs in free agency. Signed WR Christian Kirk in free agency. Drafted WR De'Zhaun Stribling in the 2nd round from Ole Miss. Drafted RB Kaelon Black in the 3rd round.
Key departures: WR Brandon Aiyuk (who did not play all of 2025 due to injury) is gone. WR Jauan Jennings is also gone. He has functioned as 49ers WR 1/2 for the past two seasons. RB Brian Robinson Jr left to ATL in free agency.
Notes: Stribling round 2 has opportunity to break out early. Mike Evans signing in free agency. Should be alpha WR1 but aging & injury risk. Potential sell high but should produce in 2026. Drafted RB Kaelon Black round 3 from Indiana. Black was not even invited to the NFL combine, but 49ers LOVE him. Could assume RB2 role immediately if he beats out Jordan James. Ricky Pearsall has an opportunity to break out as a WR2 but needs to stay healthy enough to do so. Signed Christian Kirk in offseason, veteran with no fantasy value but will take away targets. Kittle recovering from torn achilles. Drafted Wills the TE. Tonges should function as primary TE2, Wills will be TE3. CMC is a potential sell high candidate but know if healthy he is the number 1 overall RB in 2026.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Brock Purdy returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.7 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.6 att/g.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~29, prior share 17.6%, team change, OC continuity. Distribution: median 9.1%, p25-p75 [7.2%, 14.0%], tails [0.0%, 15.9%]. Closest comps: Chris Moore 2022→2023 (HOU→TEN: 16.0%→8.6%); Sammy Watkins 2020→2021 (KC→BAL: 17.6%→14.0%); Anthony Miller 2020→2021 (CHI→HOU: 16.0%→17.2%).
arrival self-anchored 32% to own 17.6% role (2yr)
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: SF rates 25.4 against a league average of 23, 2.4 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -2.6 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | +1.9 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -8.4 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -15.3 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4 | Braxton Berrios | +4.9 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -20.4% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Boyd | 2024 | 5.2 | 74% | -37.2% |
| Tyler Boyd | 2023 | 8.5 | 67% | -35.2% |
| Curtis Samuel | 2024 | 4.6 | 66% | -22.1% |
| Diontae Johnson | 2024 | 8.1 | 64% | -53.6% |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 2024 | 4.8 | 64% | +0.1% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 0 gained value, 4 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2018, round 2, pick 47 by ARI |
| College | Texas A&M |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Height | 5′10″ |
| Weight | 201 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.47s |
| Vertical | 35.5″ |
| Broad jump | 115″ |
| 3-cone | 7.09s |
| Shuttle | 4.45s |
| Career PPR per game | 10.8 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.6 |
| Boom rate | 19.7% |
| Bust rate | 32.8% |
| Games missed per season | 1 |
| Injury history | Groin, Collarbone, Hamstring |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.35 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 12 against BUF — 16.4 PPR on 6 targets and a 21.4% target share, in a game that finished 23-19. His worst was Week 18 against IND at 0.7, on 2 targets, final score 38-30. Across 11 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.1; in the 3 decided by more, 5.7. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 8.8 points per game. He scored 5.26, 15.8% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | JAX | 10-17 | 5.5 | 3 | 8 | 25 | 0 | 22.2% | 67% |
| 4 | TEN | 26-0 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 14.3% | 61% |
| 5 | BAL | 44-10 | 10.4 | 4 | 4 | 64 | 0 | 12.9% | 49% |
| 9 | DEN | 15-18 | 6.6 | 4 | 8 | 26 | 0 | 20.5% | 56% |
| 10 | JAX | 36-29 | 1.3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6.8% | 43% |
| 11 | TEN | 16-13 | 1.6 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 10% | 51% |
| 12 | BUF | 23-19 | 16.4 | 5 | 6 | 54 | 1 | 21.4% | 32% |
| 14 | KC | 20-10 | 1.6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 11.1% | 36% |
| 16 | LV | 23-21 | 6.7 | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 | 14.7% | 62% |
| 17 | LAC | 20-16 | 2.1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 19.2% | 45% |
| 18 | IND | 38-30 | 0.7 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 7.1% | 57% |
| Receptions | 28 |
| Targets | 52 |
| Receiving yards | 239 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 5.26 |
| Yards per target | 4.6 |
| Catch rate | 53.85% |
| Snap share | 50.82% |
| Target share | 14.56% |
| Air-yards share | 11.53% |
| WOPR | 0.299 |
| RACR | 0.742 |
| Average depth of target | 6.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 4.4 |
| Total YAC | 115 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 40.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -1.92 |
| Red-zone targets | 9 |
| Red-zone target share | 10.7% |
| End-zone target share | 11.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.77 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.23 |
The offense threw it 582 times. He took 9.4% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Nico Collins | 21.7% |
| Dalton Schultz | 19.17% |
| Jayden Higgins | 12.3% |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 10.31% |
| Christian Kirk ← | 9.4% |
| Woody Marks | 6.51% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 7 | 31 | 4.57 | 4.84 | 14.5% |
| Davis Mills | 4 | 21 | 6.47 | 4.24 | 14.67% |
2 of his 11 games were blowouts, 26.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.7 in those and 5.11 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 4 against HOU — 19.1 PPR on 12 targets and a 37.5% target share, in a game that finished 20-24. His worst was Week 2 against CLE at 0.9, on 3 targets, final score 13-18. Across 8 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.9; in the 3 decided by more, 8.7. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 10.4 points per game. He scored 8.86, 14.9% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | 17-20 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 21.1% | 72% |
| 2 | CLE | 13-18 | 0.9 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 11.1% | 88% |
| 3 | BUF | 10-47 | 15.9 | 8 | 10 | 79 | 0 | 22.7% | 73% |
| 4 | HOU | 20-24 | 19.1 | 7 | 12 | 61 | 1 | 37.5% | 78% |
| 5 | IND | 37-34 | 12.8 | 4 | 4 | 88 | 0 | 11.8% | 53% |
| 6 | CHI | 16-35 | 6.9 | 3 | 6 | 39 | 0 | 17.1% | 74% |
| 7 | NE | 32-16 | 3.4 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 15% | 57% |
| 8 | GB | 27-30 | 7.9 | 2 | 5 | 59 | 0 | 16.7% | 65% |
| Receptions | 27 |
| Targets | 47 |
| Receiving yards | 379 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 8.86 |
| Yards per target | 8.06 |
| Catch rate | 57.45% |
| Snap share | 70% |
| Target share | 19.13% |
| Air-yards share | 28.44% |
| WOPR | 0.485 |
| RACR | 0.66 |
| Average depth of target | 13.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 9.9 |
| Total YAC | 113 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 72.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.05 |
| Red-zone targets | 5 |
| Red-zone target share | 7.9% |
| End-zone target share | 8.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.56 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.56 |
The offense threw it 546 times. He took 9% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Brian Thomas | 25.48% |
| Evan Engram | 12.26% |
| Brenton Strange | 10.15% |
| Travis Etienne | 9.96% |
| Parker Washington | 9.77% |
| Christian Kirk ← | 9% |
2 of his 8 games were blowouts, 32.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11.4 in those and 8.94 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 2 against KC — 21.96 PPR on 14 targets and a 34.1% target share, in a game that finished 9-17. His worst was Week 1 against IND at 1.9, on 3 targets, final score 31-21. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14.4; in the 7 decided by more, 11.2. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 12.2 points per game. He scored 12.52, 2.8% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 1.1 expected, a gap of -1.1.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | 31-21 | 1.9 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 9.4% | 60% |
| 2 | KC | 9-17 | 21.96 | 11 | 14 | 110 | 0 | 34.1% | 81% |
| 3 | HOU | 17-37 | 15.4 | 4 | 6 | 54 | 1 | 15% | 86% |
| 4 | ATL | 23-7 | 16.4 | 8 | 12 | 84 | 0 | 40% | 79% |
| 5 | BUF | 25-20 | 14.4 | 6 | 8 | 78 | 0 | 21.6% | 83% |
| 6 | IND | 37-20 | 13.9 | 3 | 6 | 49 | 1 | 21.4% | 70% |
| 7 | NO | 31-24 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 90 | 1 | 20% | 80% |
| 8 | PIT | 20-10 | 8.6 | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 | 15.6% | 66% |
| 10 | SF | 3-34 | 14.4 | 6 | 11 | 104 | 0 | 35.5% | 89% |
| 11 | TEN | 34-14 | 7.8 | 3 | 6 | 48 | 0 | 19.4% | 76% |
| 12 | HOU | 24-21 | 12.9 | 4 | 7 | 89 | 0 | 18.9% | 76% |
| 13 | CIN | 31-34 | 3.6 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 | 2.6% | 1% |
| Receptions | 57 |
| Targets | 85 |
| Receiving yards | 787 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 6 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 12.52 |
| Yards per target | 9.26 |
| Catch rate | 67.06% |
| Yards per carry | 6 |
| Snap share | 70.58% |
| Target share | 21.13% |
| Air-yards share | 28.52% |
| WOPR | 0.518 |
| RACR | 0.985 |
| Average depth of target | 9.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 9.5 |
| Total YAC | 247 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 98.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.95 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.05 |
| Red-zone targets | 6 |
| Red-zone target share | 9% |
| End-zone target share | 7.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.1 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.1 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 32 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 14 of 51 |
| Target share | 34 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 32 of 51 |
The offense threw it 619 times. He took 14% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Evan Engram | 23.56% |
| Calvin Ridley | 22.41% |
| Christian Kirk ← | 14% |
| Travis Etienne | 12.03% |
| Zay Jones | 10.54% |
| Jamal Agnew | 3.46% |
4 of his 12 games were blowouts, 34.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 12.88 in those and 14.37 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 10 against KC — 31.5 PPR on 12 targets and a 30.8% target share, in a game that finished 17-27. His worst was Week 5 against HOU at 2.1, on 3 targets, final score 6-13. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13; in the 7 decided by more, 16. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 14.5 points per game. He scored 14.23, 3.9% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 9 against 6.47 expected, a gap of 2.5.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS | 22-28 | 17.7 | 6 | 12 | 117 | 0 | 31.6% | 91% |
| 2 | IND | 24-0 | 25.8 | 6 | 6 | 78 | 2 | 20% | 90% |
| 3 | LAC | 38-10 | 19.2 | 6 | 9 | 72 | 1 | 23.7% | 92% |
| 4 | PHI | 21-29 | 8.3 | 2 | 9 | 60 | 0 | 39.1% | 94% |
| 5 | HOU | 6-13 | 2.1 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 6.8% | 96% |
| 6 | IND | 27-34 | 10.8 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 1 | 22.7% | 92% |
| 7 | NYG | 17-23 | 17.1 | 7 | 10 | 96 | 0 | 23.3% | 94% |
| 8 | DEN | 17-21 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 40 | 0 | 25% | 78% |
| 9 | LV | 27-20 | 21.6 | 8 | 9 | 76 | 1 | 31% | 75% |
| 10 | KC | 17-27 | 31.5 | 9 | 12 | 105 | 2 | 30.8% | 92% |
| 12 | BAL | 28-27 | 8.1 | 4 | 9 | 46 | 0 | 24.3% | 90% |
| 13 | DET | 14-40 | 16.4 | 6 | 8 | 104 | 0 | 24.2% | 86% |
| 14 | TEN | 36-22 | 9.5 | 5 | 7 | 45 | 0 | 16.7% | 85% |
| 15 | DAL | 40-34 | 15.2 | 6 | 10 | 92 | 0 | 24.4% | 89% |
| 16 | NYJ | 19-3 | 5.6 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 20% | 81% |
| 17 | HOU | 31-3 | 4.1 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 10.7% | 83% |
| 18 | TEN | 20-16 | 21.9 | 6 | 8 | 99 | 1 | 27.6% | 96% |
| Receptions | 84 |
| Targets | 133 |
| Receiving yards | 1,108 |
| Carries | 5 |
| Rushing yards | 11 |
| Touchdowns | 8 |
| Points per game | 14.23 |
| Yards per target | 8.33 |
| Catch rate | 63.16% |
| Yards per carry | 2.2 |
| Snap share | 88.47% |
| Target share | 23.64% |
| Air-yards share | 27.88% |
| WOPR | 0.55 |
| RACR | 0.979 |
| Average depth of target | 9.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.8 |
| Total YAC | 371 |
| Broken tackles | 5 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 96.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.88 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.05 |
| Red-zone targets | 25 |
| Red-zone target share | 28.1% |
| End-zone target share | 27.9% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 6.47 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 9 |
| Receiving TD luck | 2.53 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 19 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 26 of 51 |
| Target share | 22 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 31 of 51 |
The offense threw it 596 times. He took 23.17% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Christian Kirk ← | 23.17% |
| Zay Jones | 21.08% |
| Evan Engram | 17.07% |
| Marvin Jones | 14.11% |
| Travis Etienne | 7.84% |
| Jamal Agnew | 5.23% |
4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 27.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 16.38 in those and 12.98 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 15 against DET — 24.4 PPR on 12 targets and a 25% target share, in a game that finished 12-30. His worst was Week 13 against CHI at 1.4, on 3 targets, final score 33-22. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10.2; in the 10 decided by more, 13.6. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 11 points per game. He scored 12.21, 10.7% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN | 38-13 | 24 | 5 | 5 | 70 | 2 | 15.6% | 57% |
| 2 | MIN | 34-33 | 9.5 | 3 | 4 | 65 | 0 | 11.8% | 62% |
| 3 | JAX | 31-19 | 17.4 | 7 | 8 | 104 | 0 | 23.5% | 57% |
| 4 | LA | 37-20 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3.4% | 72% |
| 5 | SF | 17-10 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 39 | 0 | 17.9% | 54% |
| 6 | CLE | 37-14 | 18.5 | 5 | 8 | 75 | 1 | 28.6% | 85% |
| 7 | HOU | 31-5 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 50 | 1 | 17.9% | 72% |
| 8 | GB | 21-24 | 8.6 | 4 | 6 | 46 | 0 | 19.4% | 78% |
| 9 | SF | 31-17 | 16.42 | 6 | 6 | 91 | 0 | 23.1% | 96% |
| 10 | CAR | 10-34 | 12.8 | 7 | 8 | 58 | 0 | 27.6% | 85% |
| 11 | SEA | 23-13 | 4.5 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 11.4% | 73% |
| 13 | CHI | 33-22 | 1.4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 20% | 60% |
| 14 | LA | 23-30 | 11.6 | 3 | 6 | 86 | 0 | 12.2% | 74% |
| 15 | DET | 12-30 | 24.4 | 9 | 12 | 94 | 1 | 25% | 96% |
| 16 | IND | 16-22 | 11.8 | 7 | 9 | 48 | 0 | 23.1% | 85% |
| 17 | DAL | 25-22 | 13.9 | 6 | 9 | 79 | 0 | 24.3% | 90% |
| 18 | SEA | 30-38 | 6.3 | 2 | 3 | 43 | 0 | 7.7% | 89% |
| Receptions | 77 |
| Targets | 103 |
| Receiving yards | 982 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 11 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 12.21 |
| Yards per target | 9.53 |
| Catch rate | 74.76% |
| Yards per carry | 11 |
| Snap share | 75.59% |
| Target share | 18.38% |
| Air-yards share | 27.14% |
| WOPR | 0.465 |
| RACR | 0.884 |
| Average depth of target | 11.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 9.8 |
| Total YAC | 228 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 112.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 3.01 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.04 |
| Red-zone targets | 10 |
| Red-zone target share | 11.8% |
| End-zone target share | 15.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.85 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.85 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 30 of 48 |
| Yards per target | 8 of 48 |
| Target share | 37 of 48 |
| Air-yards share | 28 of 48 |
The offense threw it 590 times. He took 18.07% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Christian Kirk ← | 18.07% |
| A.J. Green | 16.14% |
| Zach Ertz | 14.21% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 11.23% |
| Rondale Moore | 11.23% |
| Chase Edmonds | 9.3% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 14 | 84 | 12.42 | 9.62 | 17.89% |
| Colt McCoy | 3 | 19 | 11.24 | 9.16 | 20.7% |
6 of his 17 games were blowouts, 46.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 16.03 in those and 10.24 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 9 against MIA — 23.3 PPR on 8 targets and a 30.8% target share, in a game that finished 31-34. His worst was Week 1 against SF at 1, on 5 targets, final score 24-20. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10.8; in the 6 decided by more, 10. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 10.2 points per game. He scored 10.46, 2.8% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | 24-20 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13.5% | 77% |
| 2 | WAS | 30-15 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 57 | 0 | 11.8% | 61% |
| 4 | CAR | 21-31 | 10.9 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 16.1% | 63% |
| 5 | NYJ | 30-10 | 12.8 | 5 | 7 | 78 | 0 | 20% | 58% |
| 6 | DAL | 38-10 | 22.6 | 2 | 3 | 86 | 2 | 13.6% | 81% |
| 7 | SEA | 37-34 | 20.7 | 5 | 8 | 37 | 2 | 18.2% | 79% |
| 9 | MIA | 31-34 | 23.3 | 5 | 8 | 123 | 1 | 30.8% | 64% |
| 10 | BUF | 32-30 | 6.7 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 | 18.8% | 74% |
| 11 | SEA | 21-28 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 50 | 0 | 15.4% | 91% |
| 12 | NE | 17-20 | 4.9 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 | 17.6% | 86% |
| 13 | LA | 28-38 | 1.2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8.3% | 94% |
| 14 | NYG | 26-7 | 4.4 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 12.5% | 84% |
| 15 | PHI | 33-26 | 6.3 | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 10.8% | 85% |
| 16 | SF | 12-20 | 14.6 | 7 | 10 | 76 | 0 | 21.7% | 83% |
| Receptions | 48 |
| Targets | 79 |
| Receiving yards | 621 |
| Carries | 2 |
| Rushing yards | 3 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 10.46 |
| Yards per target | 7.86 |
| Catch rate | 60.76% |
| Yards per carry | 1.5 |
| Snap share | 77.14% |
| Target share | 16.36% |
| Air-yards share | 23.9% |
| WOPR | 0.413 |
| RACR | 0.882 |
| Average depth of target | 11.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 9.3 |
| Total YAC | 175 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 95 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.8 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.13 |
| Red-zone targets | 14 |
| Red-zone target share | 20.3% |
| End-zone target share | 27.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.25 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.25 |
The offense threw it 574 times. He took 14.52% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| DeAndre Hopkins | 29.41% |
| Christian Kirk ← | 14.52% |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 13.24% |
| Chase Edmonds | 12.32% |
| Dan Arnold | 8.27% |
| Andy Isabella | 6.43% |
3 of his 14 games were blowouts, 27.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 13.27 in those and 10.81 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Christian Kirk →