Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 9.82 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 60.6, usage worth 8.6.
29 years old · 7 seasons of experience · 2019 draft class
| SLEEPER | 53.3 |
| ESPN | 75.9 |
| YAHOO | 53.6 |
| UNDERDOG | 47.2 |
| CBS | 59.7 |
| FFA | 35 |
| Goes around | Round 5, pick 13 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB23 |
| Bye week | 8 |
| ADP standard deviation | 10.6 picks |
Our board has him at 206.9 points, 12.9 per game — 1,057 rushing yards, 9 rushing TDs, 23.9 catches. That is RB3, 35 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 10.5 points per game to a ceiling of 17.4, with the median at 12.9. Boom rate 35%, bust rate 19%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 60.6 on consensus and our board has him 35. We rank him 25.6 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
Safe round-4/5 pick — majority of Houston's RB touches and goal-line work behind a top-3 defense that should run a lot. Low bust risk.
buy · medium conviction · 2026-06-05Houston Texans returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing rb1. CJ Stroud at quarterback, Demeco Ryans as head coach, Nick Caley calling it. The offense projects to 34 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 27.5 rushes.
In: Nathaniel Dell (wr3), Lewis Bond (wr7), David Montgomery (rb1), Noah Whittington (rb4), Foster Moreau (te2). Out: Nick Chubb (rb2), Cade Stover (te2).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| David Montgomery ← | 38.8% |
| Woody Marks | 34.3% |
| Jawhar Jordan | 24.6% |
| Noah Whittington | 2.3% |
What the offense looks like: If this offense could produce at a higher level than 2025, this will be an offense you want to have pieces of. David Montgomery COULD be a very interesting high end RB2 as long as RB Woody Marks does not eat into his PT too much. Houston also has arguably the best defense in the entire NFL. they will keep them in every game & force turnovers to get this offense the ball back.
Key additions: Texans signed starting LG Wyatt Teller & starting RT Braden Smith this offseason. Also drafted C Keylan Rutledge in the 1st round. all 3 upgrades to last year. Should help protect CJ Stroud & HOPEFULLY GET A RUN GAME GOING IN HOUSTON. Traded for Lions RB David Montgomery. Joe mixon saw great success in 2024 & Montgomery COULD see a high degree of success too. Drafted WR Lewis Bond as well who does not have immediate upside.
Notes: Nico Collins remains a high producing dynasty WR when CJ Stroud plays well. Texans have to improve O line play for offense to provide large fantasy relevance. Traded for David Montgomery from the Lions & He will operate as RB1 with Woody Marks expected to also work in. CJ Stroud has struggled since his rookie season & is a mid range QB2 most weeks in fantasy. Texans do expect to extend him long term despite poor play. Jayden Higgins is an interesting year 2 breakout candidate but Tank Dell also returns in 2026 (We will see if his knee still works).
How the volume number was reached: Same QB CJ Stroud returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (34.2 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 34 att/g.
| Projected carry share | 38.8% |
| Projected carries per game | 8.8 |
| Projected carries, full season | 149 |
| Last season, carries per game | 9.3 |
That is a reduction of 0.5 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 27.5 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: HOU rates 22.5 against a league average of 23, 0.5 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +0.6 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | +3.8 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -0.9 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -5.1 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 3 | Jahmyr Gibbs | +13.6 |
| 2023 | 3 | Jahmyr Gibbs | +7.6 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -0.9% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 2024 | 7.9 | 59% | -31.9% |
| Kareem Hunt | 2023 | 7.9 | 57% | +61.5% |
| Devin Singletary | 2024 | 6.4 | 57% | +6.7% |
| Alexander Mattison | 2024 | 9.8 | 56% | -38.2% |
| Antonio Gibson | 2024 | 6.1 | 55% | -28.4% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2019, round 3, pick 73 by CHI |
| College | Iowa St. |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 5′10″ |
| Weight | 222 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.63s |
| Vertical | 28.5″ |
| Broad jump | 121″ |
| Career PPR per game | 13.6 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.5 |
| Boom rate | 19.7% |
| Bust rate | 14.1% |
| Games missed per season | 1.5 |
| Injury history | Concussion, Knee, Ankle, Thigh, Ribs |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.13 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 3 against BAL — 29.4 PPR on 13 touches and a 3.8% target share, in a game that finished 38-30. His worst was Week 4 against CLE at 1.2, on 10 touches, final score 34-10. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10.2; in the 9 decided by more, 9.5. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 8.6 points per game. He scored 9.82, 14.6% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 13-27 | 8.3 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 11 | 25 | 0 | 10.5% | 37% |
| 2 | CHI | 52-21 | 13.1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 57 | 1 | 3.6% | 39% |
| 3 | BAL | 38-30 | 29.4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 12 | 151 | 2 | 3.8% | 37% |
| 4 | CLE | 34-10 | 1.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 12 | 0 | 4% | 33% |
| 5 | CIN | 37-24 | 18.22 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 65 | 2 | 4.3% | 53% |
| 6 | KC | 17-30 | 8.1 | 2 | 2 | 37 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 7.4% | 31% |
| 7 | TB | 24-9 | 5.9 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 13 | 21 | 0 | 10.7% | 44% |
| 9 | MIN | 24-27 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 40 | 1 | 11.1% | 38% |
| 10 | WAS | 44-22 | 10.1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 71 | 0 | 3.1% | 54% |
| 11 | PHI | 9-16 | 4.7 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 27 | 0 | 2.8% | 39% |
| 12 | NYG | 34-27 | 6.7 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 7.9% | 34% |
| 13 | GB | 24-31 | 12.8 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 32 | 1 | 7.4% | 38% |
| 14 | DAL | 44-30 | 14.3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 60 | 1 | 3.2% | 31% |
| 15 | LA | 34-41 | 9.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 32 | 1 | 2.6% | 28% |
| 16 | PIT | 24-29 | 1.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0% | 18% |
| 17 | MIN | 10-23 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 25 | 0 | 6.9% | 34% |
| 18 | CHI | 19-16 | 6.5 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 42 | 0 | 2.8% | 42% |
| Receptions | 24 |
| Targets | 29 |
| Receiving yards | 192 |
| Carries | 158 |
| Rushing yards | 716 |
| Touchdowns | 9 |
| Points per game | 9.82 |
| Yards per target | 6.62 |
| Catch rate | 82.76% |
| Yards per carry | 4.53 |
| Snap share | 37.06% |
| Target share | 5.42% |
| Air-yards share | 0.18% |
| WOPR | 0.083 |
| RACR | 0.611 |
| Average depth of target | 0.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.3 |
| Total YAC | 199 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 94.3 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.18 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.04 |
| Red-zone targets | 2 |
| Red-zone target share | 2.2% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 38.2% |
| Goal-line carry share | 61.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.3 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.3 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 7.84 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 33 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 13 of 49 |
| Target share | 36 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 16 of 49 |
The offense threw it 582 times. He took 5.27% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 31.27% |
| Jameson Williams | 18.55% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 17.09% |
| Sam LaPorta | 8.91% |
| Kalif Raymond | 5.45% |
| David Montgomery ← | 5.27% |
3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 14.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.13 in those and 10.21 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 11 against JAX — 24.5 PPR on 18 touches and a 9.7% target share, in a game that finished 52-6. His worst was Week 15 against BUF at 7.5, on 9 touches, final score 42-48. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14.7; in the 6 decided by more, 17.4. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 12.2 points per game. He scored 15.84, 23.5% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 26-20 | 16.3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 91 | 1 | 3.6% | 49% |
| 2 | TB | 16-20 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 35 | 11 | 35 | 1 | 7.5% | 35% |
| 3 | ARI | 20-13 | 21.2 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 23 | 105 | 1 | 13.6% | 51% |
| 4 | SEA | 42-29 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 40 | 12 | 40 | 1 | 5.3% | 40% |
| 6 | DAL | 47-9 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 80 | 2 | 3.7% | 31% |
| 7 | MIN | 31-29 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 39 | 9 | 31 | 0 | 16% | 39% |
| 8 | TEN | 52-14 | 14.92 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 33 | 2 | 5.6% | 48% |
| 9 | GB | 24-14 | 12.6 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 17 | 73 | 0 | 15% | 56% |
| 10 | HOU | 26-23 | 12.6 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 12 | 32 | 1 | 8.3% | 40% |
| 11 | JAX | 52-6 | 24.5 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 75 | 2 | 9.7% | 39% |
| 12 | IND | 24-6 | 16.3 | 3 | 3 | 36 | 8 | 37 | 1 | 9.1% | 29% |
| 13 | CHI | 23-20 | 15.4 | 3 | 3 | 36 | 21 | 88 | 0 | 9.7% | 54% |
| 14 | GB | 34-31 | 19.4 | 5 | 5 | 33 | 14 | 51 | 1 | 12.5% | 45% |
| 15 | BUF | 42-48 | 7.5 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 7.4% | 30% |
| Receptions | 36 |
| Targets | 38 |
| Receiving yards | 341 |
| Carries | 185 |
| Rushing yards | 775 |
| Touchdowns | 13 |
| Points per game | 15.84 |
| Yards per target | 8.97 |
| Catch rate | 94.74% |
| Yards per carry | 4.19 |
| Snap share | 41.86% |
| Target share | 9.07% |
| Air-yards share | -0.25% |
| WOPR | 0.134 |
| RACR | 4.144 |
| Average depth of target | -0.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 10.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.7 |
| Total YAC | 365 |
| Broken tackles | 11 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 104.1 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.14 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.63 |
| Red-zone targets | 3 |
| Red-zone target share | 2.9% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 40.8% |
| Goal-line carry share | 45% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.42 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.42 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 10.49 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 16 of 46 |
| Yards per target | 2 of 46 |
| Target share | 26 of 46 |
| Air-yards share | 16 of 46 |
The offense threw it 550 times. He took 7.32% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 27.17% |
| Jameson Williams | 17.53% |
| Sam LaPorta | 15.99% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 12.14% |
| Tim Patrick | 8.48% |
| David Montgomery ← | 7.32% |
4 of his 14 games were blowouts, 34.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 19.18 in those and 14.68 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 4 against GB — 34.1 PPR on 34 touches and a 7.4% target share, in a game that finished 34-20. His worst was Week 6 against TB at 4.3, on 7 touches, final score 20-6. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14.5; in the 6 decided by more, 15.2. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 11.7 points per game. He scored 14.8, 24.2% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 21-20 | 13.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 74 | 1 | 0% | 79% |
| 2 | SEA | 31-37 | 12.4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 67 | 1 | 2.9% | 45% |
| 4 | GB | 34-20 | 34.1 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 32 | 121 | 3 | 7.4% | 71% |
| 5 | CAR | 42-24 | 20.9 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 19 | 109 | 1 | 22.2% | 75% |
| 6 | TB | 20-6 | 4.3 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 2.4% | 26% |
| 10 | LAC | 41-38 | 17.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 116 | 1 | 0% | 38% |
| 11 | CHI | 31-26 | 17.8 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 12 | 76 | 1 | 6.3% | 40% |
| 12 | GB | 22-29 | 15.1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 71 | 1 | 2.4% | 27% |
| 13 | NO | 33-28 | 12.5 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 18 | 56 | 1 | 8% | 62% |
| 14 | CHI | 13-28 | 11.5 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 10 | 66 | 0 | 8.8% | 35% |
| 15 | DEN | 42-17 | 10.2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 17 | 85 | 0 | 9.4% | 52% |
| 16 | MIN | 30-24 | 14.9 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 17 | 55 | 1 | 5.1% | 39% |
| 17 | DAL | 19-20 | 12.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 65 | 1 | 3.1% | 39% |
| 18 | MIN | 30-20 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 40 | 1 | 0% | 49% |
| Receptions | 16 |
| Targets | 24 |
| Receiving yards | 117 |
| Carries | 219 |
| Rushing yards | 1,015 |
| Touchdowns | 13 |
| Points per game | 14.8 |
| Yards per target | 4.88 |
| Catch rate | 66.67% |
| Yards per carry | 4.63 |
| Snap share | 48.36% |
| Target share | 5.57% |
| Air-yards share | -0.62% |
| WOPR | 0.079 |
| RACR | -0.157 |
| Average depth of target | -0.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 9.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -2 |
| Total YAC | 149 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 60.6 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.58 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.73 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 1.1% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 50.8% |
| Goal-line carry share | 60% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.14 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.14 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 14.27 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 15 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 33 of 49 |
| Target share | 41 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 27 of 49 |
The offense threw it 605 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 28.72% |
| Sam LaPorta | 21.02% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 12.43% |
| Josh Reynolds | 11.21% |
| Kalif Raymond | 7.71% |
| Jameson Williams | 7.36% |
2 of his 14 games were blowouts, 15% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 15.55 in those and 14.53 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 15 against PHI — 24.1 PPR on 15 touches and a 14.3% target share, in a game that finished 20-25. His worst was Week 3 against HOU at 1.1, on 3 touches, final score 23-20. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12; in the 9 decided by more, 10.4. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 11.6 points per game. He scored 11.11, 4.3% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | 19-10 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 17 | 26 | 0 | 23.5% | 66% |
| 2 | GB | 10-27 | 15.6 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 15 | 122 | 0 | 18.2% | 80% |
| 3 | HOU | 23-20 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0% | 17% |
| 5 | MIN | 22-29 | 18.2 | 4 | 4 | 62 | 12 | 20 | 1 | 19% | 72% |
| 6 | WAS | 7-12 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 15 | 67 | 0 | 3.8% | 78% |
| 7 | NE | 33-14 | 12.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 62 | 1 | 0% | 56% |
| 8 | DAL | 29-49 | 8.5 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 15 | 53 | 0 | 13% | 70% |
| 9 | MIA | 32-35 | 5.4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 36 | 0 | 7.4% | 70% |
| 10 | DET | 30-31 | 5.4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 37 | 0 | 5.6% | 66% |
| 11 | ATL | 24-27 | 21.1 | 3 | 4 | 54 | 17 | 67 | 1 | 21.1% | 80% |
| 12 | NYJ | 10-31 | 14.3 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 14 | 79 | 0 | 16.7% | 68% |
| 13 | GB | 19-28 | 16.7 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 61 | 1 | 20% | 77% |
| 15 | PHI | 20-25 | 24.1 | 3 | 3 | 38 | 12 | 53 | 2 | 14.3% | 68% |
| 16 | BUF | 13-35 | 10.4 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 16 | 62 | 0 | 16% | 67% |
| 17 | DET | 10-41 | 5.6 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 6 | 24 | 0 | 16.7% | 54% |
| 18 | MIN | 13-29 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 21 | 0 | 0% | 47% |
| Receptions | 34 |
| Targets | 40 |
| Receiving yards | 316 |
| Carries | 201 |
| Rushing yards | 801 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 11.11 |
| Yards per target | 7.9 |
| Catch rate | 85% |
| Yards per carry | 3.99 |
| Snap share | 64.75% |
| Target share | 12.21% |
| Air-yards share | 1.74% |
| WOPR | 0.196 |
| RACR | 5.896 |
| Average depth of target | 1.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 1 |
| Total YAC | 283 |
| Broken tackles | 6 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 97.5 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.42 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.96 |
| Red-zone targets | 3 |
| Red-zone target share | 7.1% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 40% |
| Goal-line carry share | 16.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.56 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.44 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 4.21 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 26 of 42 |
| Yards per target | 4 of 42 |
| Target share | 9 of 42 |
| Air-yards share | 6 of 42 |
The offense threw it 377 times. He took 11.17% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Cole Kmet | 19.27% |
| Darnell Mooney | 17.04% |
| Dante Pettis | 11.45% |
| David Montgomery ← | 11.17% |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 10.61% |
| Chase Claypool | 8.1% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 14 | 36 | 11.52 | 7.83 | 12.76% |
| Trevor Siemian | 1 | 4 | 14.3 | 8.5 | 16.7% |
| Nathan Peterman | 1 | 0 | 2.1 | — | 0% |
6 of his 16 games were blowouts, 37.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11.1 in those and 12.04 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 13 against ARI — 28.1 PPR on 30 touches and a 22.5% target share, in a game that finished 22-33. His worst was Week 3 against CLE at 7.5, on 14 touches, final score 6-26. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12.3; in the 7 decided by more, 17.3. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 16.8 points per game. He scored 15, 10.5% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 1.61 expected, a gap of -1.6.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 14-34 | 18.8 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 16 | 108 | 1 | 2.5% | 59% |
| 2 | CIN | 20-17 | 10.9 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 20 | 61 | 0 | 17.4% | 80% |
| 3 | CLE | 6-26 | 7.5 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 10 | 34 | 0 | 20% | 82% |
| 4 | DET | 24-14 | 22.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 106 | 2 | 0% | 62% |
| 9 | PIT | 27-29 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 13 | 63 | 0 | 6.9% | 85% |
| 11 | BAL | 13-16 | 7.7 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 14 | 58 | 0 | 3% | 95% |
| 12 | DET | 16-14 | 10.4 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 17 | 46 | 0 | 8.1% | 84% |
| 13 | ARI | 22-33 | 28.1 | 8 | 9 | 51 | 21 | 90 | 1 | 22.5% | 70% |
| 14 | GB | 30-45 | 14.1 | 6 | 7 | 39 | 10 | 42 | 0 | 21.9% | 84% |
| 15 | MIN | 9-17 | 11.3 | 5 | 6 | 23 | 18 | 60 | 0 | 16.7% | 70% |
| 16 | SEA | 25-24 | 23.6 | 7 | 9 | 61 | 21 | 45 | 1 | 25.7% | 78% |
| 17 | NYG | 29-3 | 20.1 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 22 | 64 | 2 | 6.1% | 68% |
| 18 | MIN | 17-31 | 9.9 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 72 | 0 | 6.5% | 60% |
| Receptions | 42 |
| Targets | 51 |
| Receiving yards | 301 |
| Carries | 225 |
| Rushing yards | 849 |
| Touchdowns | 7 |
| Points per game | 15 |
| Yards per target | 5.9 |
| Catch rate | 82.35% |
| Yards per carry | 3.77 |
| Snap share | 75.15% |
| Target share | 12.1% |
| Air-yards share | 1.38% |
| WOPR | 0.193 |
| RACR | 0.912 |
| Average depth of target | 0.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 0.7 |
| Total YAC | 273 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 83.1 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.41 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -1.66 |
| Red-zone targets | 8 |
| Red-zone target share | 12.7% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 50.6% |
| Goal-line carry share | 54.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.61 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.61 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 8.1 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 14 of 50 |
| Yards per target | 23 of 50 |
| Target share | 11 of 50 |
| Air-yards share | 6 of 50 |
The offense threw it 542 times. He took 9.73% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Darnell Mooney | 26.72% |
| Cole Kmet | 17.75% |
| Allen Robinson | 12.6% |
| David Montgomery ← | 9.73% |
| Marquise Goodwin | 7.63% |
| Damiere Byrd | 7.25% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 6 | 19 | 15.83 | 6.42 | 8.12% |
| Justin Fields | 6 | 23 | 12.73 | 5.13 | 13.82% |
| Nick Foles | 1 | 9 | 23.6 | 6.78 | 25.7% |
3 of his 13 games were blowouts, 23.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 15.47 in those and 12.32 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 15 against MIN — 29.2 PPR on 34 touches and a 9.5% target share, in a game that finished 33-27. His worst was Week 9 against TEN at 5.2, on 17 touches, final score 17-24. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 7 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 15.5; in the 5 decided by more, 22. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 16.9 points per game. He scored 17.65, 1% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 1 against 2.79 expected, a gap of -1.8.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 27-23 | 8.4 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 64 | 0 | 8.3% | 45% |
| 2 | NYG | 17-13 | 21.7 | 3 | 3 | 45 | 16 | 82 | 1 | 10.7% | 54% |
| 3 | ATL | 30-26 | 7.4 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 45 | 0 | 6.1% | 56% |
| 4 | IND | 11-19 | 10.7 | 3 | 6 | 30 | 10 | 27 | 0 | 14.3% | 85% |
| 5 | TB | 20-19 | 18.9 | 7 | 8 | 30 | 10 | 29 | 1 | 19% | 81% |
| 6 | CAR | 23-16 | 13.7 | 4 | 5 | 39 | 19 | 58 | 0 | 13.9% | 85% |
| 7 | LA | 10-24 | 11.9 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 14 | 48 | 0 | 13.2% | 83% |
| 8 | NO | 23-26 | 12.5 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 21 | 89 | 0 | 12.2% | 84% |
| 9 | TEN | 17-24 | 5.2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 14 | 30 | 0 | 6.4% | 65% |
| 12 | GB | 25-41 | 25.3 | 5 | 6 | 40 | 11 | 103 | 1 | 13.6% | 85% |
| 13 | DET | 30-34 | 27.1 | 4 | 4 | 39 | 17 | 72 | 2 | 12.1% | 75% |
| 14 | HOU | 36-7 | 24.5 | 3 | 4 | 42 | 11 | 113 | 1 | 12.1% | 67% |
| 15 | MIN | 33-27 | 29.2 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 32 | 146 | 2 | 9.5% | 88% |
| 16 | JAX | 41-17 | 20.1 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 23 | 95 | 1 | 5.6% | 83% |
| 17 | GB | 16-35 | 28.2 | 9 | 9 | 63 | 22 | 69 | 1 | 22% | 83% |
| Receptions | 54 |
| Targets | 68 |
| Receiving yards | 438 |
| Carries | 247 |
| Rushing yards | 1,070 |
| Touchdowns | 10 |
| Points per game | 17.65 |
| Yards per target | 6.44 |
| Catch rate | 79.41% |
| Yards per carry | 4.33 |
| Snap share | 74.6% |
| Target share | 11.93% |
| Air-yards share | 1.29% |
| WOPR | 0.188 |
| RACR | 3.367 |
| Average depth of target | 0.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 0.8 |
| Total YAC | 396 |
| Broken tackles | 11 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 103.3 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.23 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.6 |
| Red-zone targets | 12 |
| Red-zone target share | 13% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 65.8% |
| Goal-line carry share | 66.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.79 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.79 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 8.45 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 6 of 47 |
| Yards per target | 15 of 47 |
| Target share | 11 of 47 |
| Air-yards share | 11 of 47 |
The offense threw it 614 times. He took 11.43% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Allen Robinson | 25.38% |
| Darnell Mooney | 16.47% |
| Jimmy Graham | 12.77% |
| Anthony Miller | 12.77% |
| David Montgomery ← | 11.43% |
| Cole Kmet | 7.39% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 8 | 33 | 23.06 | 8.52 | 11.74% |
| Nick Foles | 7 | 35 | 11.47 | 4.49 | 12.16% |
3 of his 15 games were blowouts, 27.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 24.27 in those and 15.48 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
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