Tank Dell
Overview
Board Oct 12Week 5 rest-of-season review, Oct 12, 2026. The three reads are where our backtested model, the betting market and his 2026 production each place him at WR; our board rank is the call.
Week 6
Lines Oct 14HOU
JAX0 points. Our projection does not expect him to play this week.
Updated Oct 14, 2026.
Allowed to WRs per game across 5 games. Best games against them: Tee Higgins (W4, 26.7 PPR, 11/16 157 yds); Jaylen Waddle (W2, 21.8 PPR, 8/10 138 yds); Dohnte Meyers (W4, 15.2 PPR, 7/9 82 yds).
EPA ranks entering Week 6: #8 against the pass, #1 against the run (1 = best defense).
Big number: receiving fantasy points JAX allows a game to WRs in that zone. # = its rank of 32. Depth is air yards at the catch point; 5 games, through Week 5. Tap a zone for the detail.
Against JAX beforelast 3
| Game | Line | Pts |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 W13@ JAX · W 23-20 | 1-23 on 4 tgt | 2.8 |
| 2023 W12vs JAX · L 21-24 | 5-50-1 on 8 tgt · 1-12 rush | 14.7 |
| 2023 W3@ JAX · W 37-17 | 5-145-1 on 7 tgt | 23.0 |
no stats recorded
Game log
2026 · through W5Every gametap a game for the detail
D# = the opponent's rank against WRs entering that week (1 = stingiest, 32 = softest). Finish = his rank at WR that week.
Splits
Against coverage2023-2024 (2026 is not charted per player)
| Coverage | Tgt | Yds/tgt | Caught | EPA/tgt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man | 70 | 8.6 | 61% | +0.35 |
| Zone | 87 | 8.9 | 63% | +0.32 |
| Cover 1 | 58 | 9.5 | 62% | +0.42 |
| Cover 3 | 32 | 10.7 | 63% | +0.28 |
| Cover 4 | 25 | 7.8 | 60% | +0.52 |
| Cover 2 | 25 | 7.8 | 68% | +0.17 |
Team
HOUHouston Texans offense, 2026 through Week 5. Rank 1 = most. Scheme rates from FTN charting through Week 5.
Game by gamescore, implied total, pass rate (over expected), QB
| Week | Score | Implied | Pass rate | QB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1vs BUF | 31-36 | 21.5 | 56%−8.5 | Stroud38 att |
| W2vs CIN | 6-20 | 24.3 | 76%+2.1 | Stroud55 att |
| W3vs IND | 17-19 | 21.5 | 59%−9.0 | Stroud27 att |
| W4vs DAL | 30-34 | 25.8 | 62%−5.3 | Stroud31 att |
| W5vs TEN | 26-3 | 22.0 | 59%+1.9 | Stroud34 att |
Depth chartWR, Oct 14
Scheduleeach defense's current rank vs WRs
Green = soft, red = stingy (1 = stingiest, 32 = softest), ranked on fantasy points allowed to WRs so far. Gold underline = fantasy playoffs. Does strength of schedule matter? ›
Head coach: DeMeco Ryans. QB: C.J. Stroud (most pass attempts, Week 5).
Career
Season by season
| Year | G | Rec-Yds-TD | Pts/g | xFP/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024HOU | 14 | 51-667-381 tgt, 18.3% share, routes 82% | 8.2WR50 | 10.3−3.5 |
| 2023HOU | 10 | 47-709-775 tgt, 21.0% share, routes 72% | 14.2WR10 | 12.9+36.1 |
Under points a game: his rank at WR in points a game (8+ games; 2026: 2+ games). xFP = expected PPR a game from his usage; under it, the season's points over expected. Routes = share of team dropbacks he ran a route (through 2025).
Red zone and touchdowns
| 2024 | 1 RZ car (1%), 0 inside 5, 0 rush TD vs 0.0 exp · 9 RZ tgt (12%), 4 end-zone, 2 rec TD vs 2.1 exp |
| 2023 | 2 RZ car (2%), 0 inside 5, 0 rush TD vs 0.1 exp · 8 RZ tgt (11%), 3 end-zone, 3 rec TD vs 1.7 exp |
Floor and ceilingPPR
5 of his last 23 games reached 20 PPR; 11 finished under 10. Is there a floor-vs-ceiling trade-off? ›
Every game since 2023
2024 game log 14 games · HOU · 10.0 PPR a game
| Game | Line | Snaps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1@ IND · D10 | 3-40 on 7 tgt · 2-19 rush | 63% | 7.4 |
| W2vs CHI · D16 | 1--3 on 4 tgt · 3-16 rush | 69% | 1.8 |
| W3@ MIN · D29 | 5-62 on 6 tgt | 67% | 8.7 |
| W5vs BUF · D2 | 4-38 on 4 tgt · 1--5 rush | 68% | 5.3 |
| W6@ NE · D20 | 7-57-1 on 9 tgt | 74% | 15.2 |
| W7@ GB · D18 | 0-0 on 4 tgt | 72% | 0.0 |
| W8vs IND · D16 | 4-35-1 on 4 tgt | 75% | 11.5 |
| W9@ NYJ · D2 | 6-126 on 9 tgt | 73% | 15.6 |
| W10vs DET · D30 | 5-39 on 9 tgt · 1--6 rush | 75% | 5.8 |
| W11@ DAL · D19 | 4-54 on 7 tgt · 1-4 rush | 64% | 7.8 |
| W12vs TEN · D4 | 3-72 on 5 tgt | 84% | 8.7 |
| W13@ JAX · D30 | 1-23 on 4 tgt | 68% | 2.8 |
| W15vs MIA · D3 | 2-26 on 2 tgt · 1-15 rush | 62% | 5.1 |
| W16@ KC · D13 | 6-98-1 on 7 tgt | 51% | 18.8 |
2023 game log 10 games · HOU · 16.5 PPR a game
| Game | Line | Snaps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1@ BAL · D21 | 3-34 on 4 tgt | 48% | 4.9 |
| W2vs IND · D12 | 7-72-1 on 10 tgt | 79% | 16.7 |
| W3@ JAX · D13 | 5-145-1 on 7 tgt | 61% | 23.0 |
| W4vs PIT · D28 | 1-16 on 3 tgt · 2-13 rush | 70% | 3.4 |
| W5@ ATL · D6 | 3-57 on 4 tgt · 2--4 rush (left hurt) | 36% | 6.8 |
| W8@ CAR · D11 | 3-16 on 4 tgt · 3-15 rush | 78% | 4.6 |
| W9vs TB · D24 | 6-114-2 on 11 tgt · 2-2 rush | 85% | 26.6 |
| W10@ CIN · D13 | 6-56-1 on 14 tgt · 1-13 rush | 96% | 15.9 |
| W11vs ARI · D18 | 8-149-1 on 10 tgt | 76% | 24.9 |
| W12vs JAX · D18 | 5-50-1 on 8 tgt · 1-12 rush | 80% | 14.7 |
Health
Out · concern medium · through Week 6. On IR recovering from a torn ACL/MCL; his practice window opened last week and a season debut is likely within about two weeks.
Our note, Oct 13, 2026 · Pro Football Network IR update (Tue 10/13); CBS Sports Texans injury page (Fri 10/9)
On IR — the recovery window may still be ahead of him. The base rate describes the injury type; it does not say when this one happened.
2026 injury reportofficial, week by week
✓ = not listed. Letters = game status (Q, D, O) or worst practice that week (LP limited, DNP did not practice). Tap a week for the detail.
Historyofficial injury reports since 2020
| Year | Weeks listed | Ruled out | Listed for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 4 | 1 | Chest (2), Back, Knee |
| 2023 | 5 | 0 | Concussion (2), Thigh, Calf |
9 report weeks over 2 seasons; recurring: Thigh, Concussion, Calf, Chest. Risk label: moderate.
Teammates on the report
Our current notes first, then Sleeper designations. What happens when a starter is ruled out? ›
Value
Market Oct 10Market value on a 0–10,000 scale, through Oct 10, 2026. Faint stretches are estimates between real readings. Gold = peak.
Teal dot = today (2,857). Box = the middle half of outcomes, white line = the median, whiskers = 10th to 90th percentile. WRs about 27 valued near #208 overall: real 1-year moves since 2022, weighted by exact age and market rank (about 105 players' worth).
165.7 overall, WR66. CBS 138.7 · ESPN 168.0 · Underdog 179.3 · Sleeper 190.5
Profile
GWTTKB takes
Riskiest name on the breakout list and could do nothing, but he's free (final pick). ~21 months removed from a catastrophic multi-ligament knee injury by Week 1, expected full for camp. Was on pace for 80/1200/12 as a rookie before the injury. Path needs a Nico Collins injury or a pass-heavier Houston; downside is a Week 1 cut. Best-ball/deep-league dart, not a redraft lineup piece.
Pure closing-line-value bet, explicitly low-confidence