Last season’s receiving touchdown total is a negative forward predictor at −0.128. Red-zone target share is the single strongest ceiling factor for receivers at +0.187.
Do fantasy football touchdowns regress?
“Touchdown regression” is widely understood, but it is usually applied as a blunt instrument — fade anyone who scored a lot last year.
The count reverts and the role persists, and they have to be separated. Trailing receiving touchdowns is one of the strongest fade signals on the board at −0.128. Red-zone target share is the top ceiling factor for wide receivers at +0.187, replicated in all five seasons tested, and simultaneously one of the strongest bust-protection factors at −0.187 against bust risk.
| Signal | Forward correlation | Replicates |
|---|---|---|
| Red-zone target share (WR) | +0.187 | All 5 seasons |
| End-zone target share (WR) | just behind RZ share | All 5 seasons |
| Trailing receiving touchdowns (WR) | −0.128 | Negative, all seasons |
| Red-zone / goal-line carry share (RB) | same double duty | All 5 seasons |
| Goal-line carry share (QB) | only replicated floor factor at the position | All 5 seasons |
A touchdown requires a red-zone opportunity and then a conversion. The opportunity is assigned by role and is stable. The conversion is a coin flip in a nine-yard window and is not. Fading the count while paying for the role separates the two.
Fade last year’s touchdown count. Pay for last year’s red-zone role. When those two point in opposite directions on the same player, that is the most reliable regression profile we can construct.
Boom and bust studies run over qualifying player-stretches, with each factor required to hold its sign in every season tested before it is reported.
Figures on this page come from the GWTTKB methodology report, where the full testing record is published.
A high touchdown total is not automatically a sell. The signal is the combination — a big touchdown count sitting on a thin red-zone share. When the two agree, there is nothing to fade.