Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 15.08 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 25.6, usage worth 13.6.
27 years old · 5 seasons of experience · 2021 draft class
| SLEEPER | 26.4 |
| ESPN | 27.8 |
| YAHOO | 21.8 |
| UNDERDOG | 22.9 |
| CBS | 26.2 |
| FFA | 24 |
| Goes around | Round 3, pick 2 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR10 |
| Bye week | 8 |
| ADP standard deviation | 2.6 picks |
Our board has him at 237.2 points, 14.5 per game — 78 catches, 1,165 yards, 6.8 TDs. That is WR2, 24 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 11.3 points per game to a ceiling of 18, with the median at 14.5. Boom rate 24%, bust rate 22%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 25.6 on consensus and our board has him 24. Those agree, so there is no market disagreement to exploit. The question is whether you want the profile, not whether it is mispriced.
top-5 in multiple efficiency metrics for 3 straight seasons, a legitimately elite receiver by the numbers. The recurring issue is health, specifically that his and Stroud's injuries never seem to line up into a shared healthy stretch — they trade off being out rather than both being available together for a real run. New risk for 2026: Houston's defense is genuinely elite, and the team may lean run-heavy/ball-control on purpose to protect leads, capping upside even in a fully healthy scenario.
buy · medium conviction · 2026-08Houston Texans returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing rb1. CJ Stroud at quarterback, Demeco Ryans as head coach, Nick Caley calling it. The offense projects to 34 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 27.5 rushes.
In: Nathaniel Dell (wr3), Lewis Bond (wr7), David Montgomery (rb1), Noah Whittington (rb4), Foster Moreau (te2). Out: Nick Chubb (rb2), Cade Stover (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 21.3%, with a bear case of 20.5% and a bull case of 21.9% and a full range of 19.2% to 23.2%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Nico Collins ← | 21.3% |
| Dalton Schultz | 14% |
| Jayden Higgins | 11.5% |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 8.6% |
| Jaylin Noel | 7.1% |
| Nathaniel Dell | 6.2% |
What the offense looks like: If this offense could produce at a higher level than 2025, this will be an offense you want to have pieces of. David Montgomery COULD be a very interesting high end RB2 as long as RB Woody Marks does not eat into his PT too much. Houston also has arguably the best defense in the entire NFL. they will keep them in every game & force turnovers to get this offense the ball back.
Key additions: Texans signed starting LG Wyatt Teller & starting RT Braden Smith this offseason. Also drafted C Keylan Rutledge in the 1st round. all 3 upgrades to last year. Should help protect CJ Stroud & HOPEFULLY GET A RUN GAME GOING IN HOUSTON. Traded for Lions RB David Montgomery. Joe mixon saw great success in 2024 & Montgomery COULD see a high degree of success too. Drafted WR Lewis Bond as well who does not have immediate upside.
Notes: Nico Collins remains a high producing dynasty WR when CJ Stroud plays well. Texans have to improve O line play for offense to provide large fantasy relevance. Traded for David Montgomery from the Lions & He will operate as RB1 with Woody Marks expected to also work in. CJ Stroud has struggled since his rookie season & is a mid range QB2 most weeks in fantasy. Texans do expect to extend him long term despite poor play. Jayden Higgins is an interesting year 2 breakout candidate but Tank Dell also returns in 2026 (We will see if his knee still works).
How the volume number was reached: Same QB CJ Stroud returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (34.2 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 34 att/g.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~26, prior share 24.3%, same team, OC continuity. Distribution: median 22.8%, p25-p75 [20.6%, 24.3%], tails [17.3%, 27.9%]. Closest comps: Tee Higgins 2021→2022 (CIN: 22.6%→21.2%); DeVonta Smith 2023→2024 (PHI: 24.7%→26.1%); Nico Collins 2024→2025 (HOU: 23.6%→24.1%).
self-anchored 58% to own 24.3% role (3yr), 42% to comp median 22.8%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: HOU rates 22.5 against a league average of 23, 0.5 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +3.2 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | +6.5 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | +3.8 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -6.2 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2 | Xavier Hutchinson | +13.1 |
| 2022 | 4 | Chris Moore | +6.1 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -15.3% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 2024 | 15.3 | 72% | +1.5% |
| Jakobi Meyers | 2024 | 14.5 | 70% | +27.2% |
| Tee Higgins | 2024 | 18.5 | 67% | +0.7% |
| Jerry Jeudy | 2024 | 14.2 | 66% | -22.4% |
| Mike Evans | 2023 | 16.6 | 66% | +19% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 1 lost it and 2 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2021, round 3, pick 89 by HOU |
| College | Michigan |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′4″ |
| Weight | 215 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.43s |
| Vertical | 37.5″ |
| Broad jump | 125″ |
| 3-cone | 6.78s |
| Shuttle | 4.29s |
| Career PPR per game | 13.7 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.6 |
| Boom rate | 21.6% |
| Bust rate | 13.7% |
| Games missed per season | 1.4 |
| Injury history | Groin, Foot, Calf, Concussion |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | -0.11 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 11 against TEN — 24.2 PPR on 10 targets and a 25% target share, in a game that finished 16-13. His worst was Week 1 against LA at 5.5, on 5 targets, final score 9-14. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14.4; in the 4 decided by more, 16.9. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 13.6 points per game. He scored 15.08, 6.6% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 3 against 5.46 expected, a gap of -2.5.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 9-14 | 5.5 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 18.5% | 84% |
| 2 | TB | 19-20 | 14.2 | 3 | 9 | 52 | 1 | 39.1% | 90% |
| 3 | JAX | 10-17 | 22.4 | 8 | 11 | 104 | 1 | 30.6% | 86% |
| 4 | TEN | 26-0 | 11.9 | 4 | 6 | 79 | 0 | 21.4% | 86% |
| 5 | BAL | 44-10 | 16 | 4 | 5 | 52 | 1 | 16.1% | 57% |
| 7 | SEA | 19-27 | 6.7 | 4 | 10 | 27 | 0 | 21.7% | 51% |
| 9 | DEN | 15-18 | 14.5 | 7 | 11 | 75 | 0 | 28.2% | 79% |
| 10 | JAX | 36-29 | 22.6 | 7 | 15 | 136 | 0 | 34.1% | 89% |
| 11 | TEN | 16-13 | 24.2 | 9 | 10 | 92 | 1 | 25% | 84% |
| 12 | BUF | 23-19 | 8.5 | 3 | 3 | 55 | 0 | 10.7% | 75% |
| 13 | IND | 20-16 | 21.5 | 5 | 10 | 98 | 1 | 31.3% | 75% |
| 14 | KC | 20-10 | 16.1 | 4 | 8 | 121 | 0 | 29.6% | 81% |
| 15 | ARI | 40-20 | 23.5 | 3 | 4 | 85 | 2 | 15.4% | 73% |
| 16 | LV | 23-21 | 9.9 | 4 | 9 | 59 | 0 | 26.5% | 80% |
| 17 | LAC | 20-16 | 8.7 | 3 | 4 | 57 | 0 | 15.4% | 68% |
| Receptions | 71 |
| Targets | 120 |
| Receiving yards | 1,117 |
| Carries | 2 |
| Rushing yards | 15 |
| Touchdowns | 7 |
| Points per game | 15.08 |
| Yards per target | 9.31 |
| Catch rate | 59.17% |
| Yards per carry | 7.5 |
| Snap share | 77.2% |
| Target share | 24.24% |
| Air-yards share | 35.07% |
| WOPR | 0.609 |
| RACR | 0.878 |
| Average depth of target | 12.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 11.2 |
| Total YAC | 324 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 103.4 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.62 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.13 |
| Red-zone targets | 18 |
| Red-zone target share | 21.4% |
| End-zone target share | 35.3% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 5.46 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | -2.46 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.14 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 10 of 44 |
| Yards per target | 8 of 44 |
| Target share | 16 of 44 |
| Air-yards share | 17 of 44 |
The offense threw it 582 times. He took 21.7% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Nico Collins ← | 21.7% |
| Dalton Schultz | 19.17% |
| Jayden Higgins | 12.3% |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 10.31% |
| Christian Kirk | 9.4% |
| Woody Marks | 6.51% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 11 | 81 | 14.22 | 9.37 | 24.15% |
| Davis Mills | 4 | 39 | 17.45 | 9.18 | 24.5% |
3 of his 15 games were blowouts, 22.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 17.13 in those and 14.43 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 4 against JAX — 33.1 PPR on 15 targets and a 38.5% target share, in a game that finished 24-20. His worst was Week 17 against BAL at 8.9, on 6 targets, final score 2-31. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 0 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 20.6; in the 4 decided by more, 11.4. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 14.6 points per game. He scored 17.55, 22.1% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 6 against 4.86 expected, a gap of 1.1.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | 29-27 | 17.7 | 6 | 8 | 117 | 0 | 25.8% | 80% |
| 2 | CHI | 19-13 | 27.5 | 8 | 10 | 135 | 1 | 29.4% | 84% |
| 3 | MIN | 7-34 | 12.6 | 4 | 10 | 86 | 0 | 23.3% | 82% |
| 4 | JAX | 24-20 | 33.1 | 12 | 15 | 151 | 1 | 38.5% | 84% |
| 5 | BUF | 23-20 | 15.8 | 2 | 2 | 78 | 1 | 5.7% | 13% |
| 11 | DAL | 34-10 | 9.4 | 4 | 7 | 54 | 0 | 21.2% | 47% |
| 12 | TEN | 27-32 | 20.2 | 5 | 9 | 92 | 1 | 29% | 79% |
| 13 | JAX | 23-20 | 19.9 | 8 | 11 | 119 | 0 | 33.3% | 70% |
| 15 | MIA | 20-12 | 17.7 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 2 | 24% | 82% |
| 16 | KC | 19-27 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 60 | 0 | 27% | 85% |
| 17 | BAL | 2-31 | 8.9 | 3 | 6 | 59 | 0 | 19.4% | 71% |
| 18 | TEN | 23-14 | 14.8 | 5 | 5 | 38 | 1 | 17.9% | 18% |
| Receptions | 68 |
| Targets | 99 |
| Receiving yards | 1,006 |
| Touchdowns | 7 |
| Points per game | 17.55 |
| Yards per target | 10.16 |
| Catch rate | 68.69% |
| Snap share | 66.25% |
| Target share | 24.54% |
| Air-yards share | 33.23% |
| WOPR | 0.6 |
| RACR | 0.985 |
| Average depth of target | 10.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 9.4 |
| Total YAC | 365 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 104.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 3.57 |
| Red-zone targets | 15 |
| Red-zone target share | 20.3% |
| End-zone target share | 35.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.86 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 6 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.14 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 8 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 4 of 51 |
| Target share | 27 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 17 of 51 |
The offense threw it 570 times. He took 18.17% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Nico Collins ← | 18.17% |
| Dalton Schultz | 15.6% |
| Tank Dell | 14.86% |
| Stefon Diggs | 11.74% |
| Joe Mixon | 9.54% |
| John Metchie III | 6.79% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 11 | 94 | 17.8 | 10.3 | 25.15% |
| Davis Mills | 1 | 5 | 14.8 | 7.6 | 17.9% |
3 of his 12 games were blowouts, 14.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.3 in those and 20.61 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 4 against PIT — 35.8 PPR on 9 targets and a 33.3% target share, in a game that finished 30-6. His worst was Week 14 against NYJ at 2.3, on 1 targets, final score 6-30. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 18.2; in the 7 decided by more, 16.4. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 12.7 points per game. He scored 17.36, 35.9% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 7 against 4.34 expected, a gap of 2.7.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 9-25 | 14 | 6 | 11 | 80 | 0 | 25.6% | 71% |
| 2 | IND | 20-31 | 27.6 | 7 | 9 | 146 | 1 | 20.9% | 62% |
| 3 | JAX | 37-17 | 5.4 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 | 10.3% | 66% |
| 4 | PIT | 30-6 | 35.8 | 7 | 9 | 168 | 2 | 33.3% | 76% |
| 5 | ATL | 19-21 | 6.9 | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 | 12.5% | 88% |
| 6 | NO | 20-13 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 80 | 0 | 25% | 73% |
| 8 | CAR | 13-15 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 25% | 72% |
| 9 | TB | 39-37 | 14.4 | 3 | 5 | 54 | 1 | 13.2% | 79% |
| 11 | ARI | 21-16 | 13.5 | 7 | 11 | 65 | 0 | 28.9% | 76% |
| 12 | JAX | 21-24 | 23.4 | 7 | 9 | 104 | 1 | 25% | 77% |
| 13 | DEN | 22-17 | 34.1 | 9 | 12 | 191 | 1 | 44.4% | 81% |
| 14 | NYJ | 6-30 | 2.3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3.7% | 5% |
| 16 | CLE | 22-36 | 13.8 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 1 | 12.5% | 47% |
| 17 | TEN | 26-3 | 15.7 | 7 | 8 | 80 | 0 | 25.8% | 62% |
| 18 | IND | 23-19 | 34.5 | 9 | 9 | 195 | 1 | 34.6% | 84% |
| Receptions | 80 |
| Targets | 109 |
| Receiving yards | 1,297 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 7 |
| Touchdowns | 8 |
| Points per game | 17.36 |
| Yards per target | 11.9 |
| Catch rate | 73.39% |
| Yards per carry | 7 |
| Snap share | 67.93% |
| Target share | 22.71% |
| Air-yards share | 28.74% |
| WOPR | 0.541 |
| RACR | 1.153 |
| Average depth of target | 10.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 9.4 |
| Total YAC | 549 |
| Broken tackles | 16 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 129.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 4.81 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.02 |
| Red-zone targets | 17 |
| Red-zone target share | 22.4% |
| End-zone target share | 25.6% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.34 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 7 |
| Receiving TD luck | 2.66 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.05 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 7 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 2 of 51 |
| Target share | 29 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 31 of 51 |
The offense threw it 592 times. He took 19.75% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Nico Collins ← | 19.75% |
| Dalton Schultz | 15.94% |
| Robert Woods | 13.59% |
| Tank Dell | 13.59% |
| Noah Brown | 9.96% |
| Devin Singletary | 6.88% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 14 | 103 | 17.61 | 12.42 | 23.44% |
| Davis Mills | 1 | 6 | 13.8 | 3 | 12.5% |
4 of his 15 games were blowouts, 22.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 14.8 in those and 18.22 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 10 against NYG — 15.9 PPR on 10 targets and a 27% target share, in a game that finished 16-24. His worst was Week 1 against IND at 4.6, on 3 targets, final score 20-20. Across 10 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.4; in the 5 decided by more, 10. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 11.3 points per game. He scored 9.71, 13.9% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | 20-20 | 4.6 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 8.3% | 67% |
| 2 | DEN | 9-16 | 9.8 | 4 | 9 | 58 | 0 | 24.3% | 67% |
| 3 | CHI | 20-23 | 6.1 | 2 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 12.9% | 68% |
| 4 | LAC | 24-34 | 11.2 | 3 | 5 | 82 | 0 | 14.3% | 77% |
| 5 | JAX | 13-6 | 10.5 | 4 | 6 | 65 | 0 | 25% | 81% |
| 7 | LV | 20-38 | 6.3 | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 7.5% | 46% |
| 10 | NYG | 16-24 | 15.9 | 5 | 10 | 49 | 1 | 27% | 78% |
| 11 | WAS | 10-23 | 9.8 | 5 | 7 | 48 | 0 | 21.9% | 86% |
| 12 | MIA | 15-30 | 10.4 | 6 | 9 | 44 | 0 | 23.7% | 75% |
| 13 | CLE | 14-27 | 12.5 | 3 | 10 | 35 | 1 | 27% | 72% |
| Receptions | 37 |
| Targets | 66 |
| Receiving yards | 481 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 9.71 |
| Yards per target | 7.29 |
| Catch rate | 56.06% |
| Snap share | 71.7% |
| Target share | 19.19% |
| Air-yards share | 30.9% |
| WOPR | 0.504 |
| RACR | 0.787 |
| Average depth of target | 11.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.6 |
| Total YAC | 163 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 83 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.13 |
| Red-zone targets | 8 |
| Red-zone target share | 12.1% |
| End-zone target share | 15.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.69 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.31 |
The offense threw it 579 times. He took 12.02% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Brandin Cooks | 16.94% |
| Chris Moore | 13.48% |
| Nico Collins ← | 12.02% |
| Jordan Akins | 9.84% |
| Rex Burkhead | 9.29% |
| Phillip Dorsett | 7.29% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 8 | 47 | 9.28 | 8.55 | 17.65% |
| Kyle Allen | 2 | 19 | 11.45 | 4.16 | 25.35% |
1 of his 10 games were blowouts, 6.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.3 in those and 9.38 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 16 against LAC — 12.3 PPR on 4 targets and a 14.8% target share, in a game that finished 41-29. His worst was Week 13 against IND at 0, on 1 targets, final score 0-31. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 3 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.7; in the 11 decided by more, 5.8. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 7.4 points per game. He scored 5.97, 19.6% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | 37-21 | 1.7 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 9.4% | 55% |
| 2 | CLE | 21-31 | 4.2 | 1 | 1 | 32 | 0 | 3.6% | 3% |
| 6 | IND | 3-31 | 8.4 | 4 | 6 | 44 | 0 | 14.3% | 57% |
| 7 | ARI | 5-31 | 4.8 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 16.1% | 63% |
| 8 | LA | 22-38 | 9.5 | 4 | 4 | 55 | 0 | 11.1% | 64% |
| 9 | MIA | 9-17 | 5.5 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 7.5% | 70% |
| 11 | TEN | 22-13 | 1.9 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 8.7% | 59% |
| 12 | NYJ | 14-21 | 4.8 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 19.2% | 65% |
| 13 | IND | 0-31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.8% | 62% |
| 14 | SEA | 13-33 | 11.9 | 5 | 10 | 69 | 0 | 20.8% | 70% |
| 15 | JAX | 30-16 | 3.4 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 13.3% | 61% |
| 16 | LAC | 41-29 | 12.3 | 3 | 4 | 33 | 1 | 14.8% | 66% |
| 17 | SF | 7-23 | 5.5 | 2 | 5 | 35 | 0 | 16.7% | 60% |
| 18 | TEN | 25-28 | 9.7 | 3 | 7 | 67 | 0 | 21.9% | 72% |
| Receptions | 33 |
| Targets | 60 |
| Receiving yards | 446 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 5.97 |
| Yards per target | 7.43 |
| Catch rate | 55% |
| Snap share | 59.07% |
| Target share | 12.94% |
| Air-yards share | 19.27% |
| WOPR | 0.329 |
| RACR | 0.9 |
| Average depth of target | 10.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 9.5 |
| Total YAC | 133 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 77.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.02 |
| Red-zone targets | 6 |
| Red-zone target share | 12.8% |
| End-zone target share | 29.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.95 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.95 |
The offense threw it 546 times. He took 11.47% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Brandin Cooks | 25.62% |
| Nico Collins ← | 11.47% |
| David Johnson | 8.03% |
| Danny Amendola | 7.27% |
| Chris Conley | 7.07% |
| Pharaoh Brown | 6.5% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 10 | 47 | 6.97 | 8.02 | 13.64% |
| Tyrod Taylor | 4 | 13 | 3.47 | 5.31 | 11.2% |
4 of his 14 games were blowouts, 30% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.28 in those and 6.67 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
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