Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 7.62 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 140.4, usage worth 7.4.
23 years old · 1 season of experience · 2025 draft class
| SLEEPER | 134.5 |
| ESPN | 159.3 |
| YAHOO | 133.3 |
| UNDERDOG | 121.1 |
| CBS | 134.6 |
| FFA | 128 |
| Goes around | Round 12, pick 8 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR56 |
| Bye week | 8 |
| ADP standard deviation | 12.6 picks |
Our board has him at 146.1 points, 8.9 per game — 53.6 catches, 703 yards, 3.7 TDs. That is WR5, 127 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 6.7 points per game to a ceiling of 13.1, with the median at 8.9. Boom rate 47%, bust rate 24%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 140.4 on consensus and our board has him 127. We rank him 13.4 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
Houston Texans returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing rb1. CJ Stroud at quarterback, Demeco Ryans as head coach, Nick Caley calling it. The offense projects to 34 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 27.5 rushes.
In: Nathaniel Dell (wr3), Lewis Bond (wr7), David Montgomery (rb1), Noah Whittington (rb4), Foster Moreau (te2). Out: Nick Chubb (rb2), Cade Stover (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 11.5%, with a bear case of 9.6% and a bull case of 14.7% and a full range of 7.8% to 17.2%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Nico Collins | 21.3% |
| Dalton Schultz | 14% |
| Jayden Higgins ← | 11.5% |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 8.6% |
| Jaylin Noel | 7.1% |
| Nathaniel Dell | 6.2% |
What the offense looks like: If this offense could produce at a higher level than 2025, this will be an offense you want to have pieces of. David Montgomery COULD be a very interesting high end RB2 as long as RB Woody Marks does not eat into his PT too much. Houston also has arguably the best defense in the entire NFL. they will keep them in every game & force turnovers to get this offense the ball back.
Key additions: Texans signed starting LG Wyatt Teller & starting RT Braden Smith this offseason. Also drafted C Keylan Rutledge in the 1st round. all 3 upgrades to last year. Should help protect CJ Stroud & HOPEFULLY GET A RUN GAME GOING IN HOUSTON. Traded for Lions RB David Montgomery. Joe mixon saw great success in 2024 & Montgomery COULD see a high degree of success too. Drafted WR Lewis Bond as well who does not have immediate upside.
Notes: Nico Collins remains a high producing dynasty WR when CJ Stroud plays well. Texans have to improve O line play for offense to provide large fantasy relevance. Traded for David Montgomery from the Lions & He will operate as RB1 with Woody Marks expected to also work in. CJ Stroud has struggled since his rookie season & is a mid range QB2 most weeks in fantasy. Texans do expect to extend him long term despite poor play. Jayden Higgins is an interesting year 2 breakout candidate but Tank Dell also returns in 2026 (We will see if his knee still works).
How the volume number was reached: Same QB CJ Stroud returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (34.2 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 34 att/g.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~22, prior share 12.9%, same team, OC continuity. Distribution: median 14.0%, p25-p75 [10.8%, 19.5%], tails [7.7%, 23.6%]. Closest comps: Van Jefferson 2021→2022 (LA: 11.7%→17.2%); K.J. Osborn 2021→2022 (MIN: 14.1%→13.4%); Josh Palmer 2022→2023 (LAC: 13.5%→17.7%).
self-anchored 30% to own 12.9% role (1yr), 70% to comp median 14.0%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: HOU rates 22.5 against a league average of 23, 0.5 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +3.2 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | +6.5 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | +3.8 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -6.2 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Jayden Higgins study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -22.8% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Pierce | 2022 | 7 | 87% | -5.2% |
| Rashod Bateman | 2021 | 8.6 | 76% | -1% |
| Quentin Johnston | 2023 | 5.5 | 76% | +19% |
| Elijah Moore | 2022 | 6.3 | 72% | +0.2% |
| Terrace Marshall | 2022 | 6.4 | 72% | -15.6% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 2 lost it and 2 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2025, round 2, pick 34 by HOU |
| College | Iowa St. |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′4″ |
| Weight | 214 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.47s |
| Vertical | 39″ |
| Broad jump | 128″ |
His best game was Week 17 against LAC — 16.8 PPR on 4 targets and a 15.4% target share, in a game that finished 20-16. His worst was Week 7 against SEA at 0, on 3 targets, final score 19-27. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 12 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.6; in the 5 decided by more, 7.6. Game state made no difference to his scoring.
His usage that season was worth 7.4 points per game. He scored 7.62, 5.9% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 4 against 1.83 expected, a gap of 2.2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 9-14 | 5.2 | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 11.1% | 43% |
| 2 | TB | 19-20 | 3.8 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 | 4.3% | 43% |
| 3 | JAX | 10-17 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2.8% | 44% |
| 4 | TEN | 26-0 | 9.4 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 1 | 3.6% | 44% |
| 5 | BAL | 44-10 | 7.2 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 12.9% | 56% |
| 7 | SEA | 19-27 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6.5% | 63% |
| 8 | SF | 26-15 | 13.4 | 4 | 8 | 34 | 1 | 21.1% | 82% |
| 9 | DEN | 15-18 | 1.4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2.6% | 48% |
| 10 | JAX | 36-29 | 15.2 | 5 | 7 | 42 | 1 | 15.9% | 57% |
| 11 | TEN | 16-13 | 9.5 | 4 | 7 | 55 | 0 | 17.5% | 61% |
| 12 | BUF | 23-19 | 13.8 | 4 | 9 | 38 | 1 | 32.1% | 58% |
| 13 | IND | 20-16 | 11.5 | 5 | 5 | 65 | 0 | 15.6% | 58% |
| 14 | KC | 20-10 | 6.4 | 3 | 5 | 34 | 0 | 18.5% | 60% |
| 15 | ARI | 40-20 | 1.4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3.8% | 72% |
| 16 | LV | 23-21 | 2.7 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 8.8% | 54% |
| 17 | LAC | 20-16 | 16.8 | 2 | 4 | 88 | 1 | 15.4% | 49% |
| 18 | IND | 38-30 | 10.3 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 1 | 17.9% | 81% |
| Receptions | 41 |
| Targets | 68 |
| Receiving yards | 525 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 7.62 |
| Yards per target | 7.72 |
| Catch rate | 60.29% |
| Snap share | 57.24% |
| Target share | 12.38% |
| Air-yards share | 17.66% |
| WOPR | 0.309 |
| RACR | 1.092 |
| Average depth of target | 11 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 9.8 |
| Total YAC | 123 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 101.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.99 |
| Red-zone targets | 8 |
| Red-zone target share | 9.5% |
| End-zone target share | 17.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.83 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | 2.17 |
The offense threw it 582 times. He took 12.3% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Nico Collins | 21.7% |
| Dalton Schultz | 19.17% |
| Jayden Higgins ← | 12.3% |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 10.31% |
| Christian Kirk | 9.4% |
| Woody Marks | 6.51% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 13 | 44 | 6.89 | 8.77 | 10.95% |
| Davis Mills | 4 | 24 | 9.97 | 5.79 | 17.02% |
3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 13.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6 in those and 7.64 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Jayden Higgins →