Across 16,532 player-games, the correlation between a production spike and pre-game value movement is approximately zero. The repricing happens after.
Does the dynasty fantasy market anticipate breakouts?
Dynasty values are widely assumed to be forward-looking, with the market pricing in a breakout as it becomes apparent.
Measured across 16,532 player-games, the relationship between a production spike and value movement before the game is approximately zero. The market reprices for two to four weeks after, which makes days 7 to 28 post-breakout the only measurable inefficiency in the window.
Dynasty prices are set by trade negotiation between managers reacting to what they have seen, not by a continuous market with participants paid to be early. Information takes weeks to propagate through that process.
If you are selling a breakout, the window is not the day after. If you are buying ahead of one, the market will not have done it for you.
Daily dynasty values across six years, matched against game-level production, measuring value change in windows before and after a production spike.
Figures on this page come from the GWTTKB methodology report, where the full testing record is published.
This measures the aggregate market, not any individual league. In a league of engaged managers the repricing will be faster than the aggregate suggests.