Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 4.86 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 170.2, usage worth 5.
27 years old · 3 seasons of experience · 2023 draft class
| ESPN | 170.2 |
| UNDERDOG | 215.8 |
| FFA | 301 |
| Goes around | Round 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB97 |
Our board has him at 0.5 points, 0 per game — 3 rushing yards, 0.1 catches. That is RB6, 282 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 0 points per game to a ceiling of 0, with the median at 0. Boom rate 80%, bust rate 10%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 170.2 on consensus and our board has him 282. We rank him 111.8 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
Kansas City Chiefs returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing rb1, oc. Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, Andy Reid as head coach, Eric Bieniemy calling it. The offense projects to 34 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 25.8 rushes.
In: Justin Fields (qb2), Cyrus Allen (wr5), Andrew Armstrong (wr7), Kenneth Walker III (rb1), Emmett Johnson (rb3), Emari Demercado (rb4). Out: Marquise Brown (wr3), Isiah Pacheco (rb1), Kareem Hunt (rb2).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| Kenneth Walker III | 43.5% |
| Brashard Smith | 25.7% |
| Emari Demercado ← | 24.9% |
| Emmett Johnson | 5.8% |
What the offense looks like: Highly relevant offense to own pieces of. Mahomes needs to return to his MVP form to support WR other than Rice, but Kenneth Walker III may be about to feast in KC if he can stay healthy. Of note, if Walker were to suffer an injury, RB Emmett Johnson has a great opportunity to fill in and be a valuable back.
Key additions: OC Eric Bieniemy retuns to Chiefs as OC. Previously served as OC from 2018 - 2022. Add RB Kenneth Walker III in free agency on massive 3 year deal.
Key departures: Isiah Pacheco left Chiefs for Lions in free agency. RB Kareem Hunt is also likely gone from the team. WR Hollywood Brown also left to the Eagles in free agency. Chiefs lost RT Jawaan Taylor in free agency (mid).
Notes: Rashee Rice is slotted to operate as WR1 & holds high value for 2026 season. Mahomes should be recovered from torn ACL. Kelce is in his final season most likely. Xavier Worthy has struggled to produce, could break out, but not looking great right now. Chiefs sign Kenneth Walker III in free agency (reigning superbowl MVP RB from seahawks) and he is set for monster season. Brashard Smith should operate as receiving back and Emmett Johnson will battle for 3rd string back with Emari Demercado.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Patrick Mahomes returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (34.4 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 34 att/g; New OC Eric Bieniemy — pass rate and tempo may shift.
| Projected carry share | 24.9% |
| Projected carries per game | 5.3 |
| Projected carries, full season | 90 |
| Last season, carries per game | 3.7 |
That is an increase of 1.6 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 25.8 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: KC rates 24.1 against a league average of 23, 1.1 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -1.1 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | -6 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | +1.1 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -7.6 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 3 | Keaontay Ingram | +-2.8 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +42.2% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, RBs crash the following year 59% of the time (hold 41%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 59% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeeJay Dallas | 2022 | 3.1 | 78% | -21.3% |
| Rico Dowdle | 2023 | 5.7 | 77% | +63.9% |
| Emanuel Wilson | 2024 | 5.6 | 75% | +49.9% |
| DeeJay Dallas | 2021 | 3.5 | 73% | +26.3% |
| Jeffery Wilson | 2023 | 4.6 | 72% | -41.3% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 2 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Career PPR per game | 5.9 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.8 |
| Boom rate | 25.9% |
| Bust rate | 33.3% |
| Games missed per season | 2.7 |
| Injury history | Toe, Back, Ankle |
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 10 against SEA — 13.4 PPR on 8 touches and a 9.1% target share, in a game that finished 22-44. His worst was Week 3 against SF at 0, on 3 touches, final score 15-16. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 3.2; in the 6 decided by more, 6.5. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 5 points per game. He scored 4.86, 2% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 20-13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 3 | SF | 15-16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2.9% | 11% |
| 4 | SEA | 20-23 | 10.1 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 5% | 39% |
| 5 | TEN | 21-22 | 6.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 81 | 0 | 0% | 28% |
| 6 | IND | 27-31 | 0.1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2.6% | 4% |
| 9 | DAL | 27-17 | 8.8 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 14 | 79 | 0 | 3.4% | 40% |
| 10 | SEA | 22-44 | 13.4 | 3 | 4 | 40 | 4 | 64 | 0 | 9.1% | 42% |
| 11 | SF | 22-41 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 5.4% | 18% |
| 15 | HOU | 20-40 | 2.1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7.9% | 11% |
| 16 | ATL | 19-26 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 3.4% | 32% |
| 17 | CIN | 14-37 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 8.6% | 53% |
| 18 | LA | 20-37 | 6.7 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 2 | 29 | 0 | 3.6% | 22% |
| Receptions | 13 |
| Targets | 20 |
| Receiving yards | 101 |
| Carries | 44 |
| Rushing yards | 312 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 4.86 |
| Yards per target | 5.05 |
| Catch rate | 65% |
| Yards per carry | 7.09 |
| Snap share | 25% |
| Target share | 4.33% |
| Air-yards share | 0.46% |
| WOPR | 0.068 |
| RACR | 1.223 |
| Average depth of target | 0.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 1.3 |
| Total YAC | 84 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 94 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.13 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.58 |
| Red-zone targets | 4 |
| Red-zone target share | 3.9% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 10% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.24 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.24 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.59 |
The offense threw it 648 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Trey McBride | 27.39% |
| Michael Wilson | 20.42% |
| Marvin Harrison | 11.83% |
| Michael Carter | 7.29% |
| Elijah Higgins | 6% |
| Greg Dortch | 5.35% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 8 | 17 | 5.26 | 5.18 | 5.5% |
| Kyler Murray | 4 | 3 | 4.05 | 4.33 | 1.98% |
5 of his 12 games were blowouts, 51.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.04 in those and 3.22 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 9 against CHI — 16 PPR on 6 touches and a 10.5% target share, in a game that finished 29-9. His worst was Week 8 against MIA at 0, on 1 touches, final score 28-27. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 1.7; in the 7 decided by more, 6.4. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 3.6 points per game. He scored 4.21, 16.9% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 28-34 | 4.6 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.5% | 21% |
| 2 | LA | 41-10 | 4.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 46 | 0 | 0% | 11% |
| 3 | DET | 13-20 | 0.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 20% |
| 4 | WAS | 14-42 | 3.4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 4.5% | 24% |
| 5 | SF | 24-23 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.3% | 22% |
| 6 | GB | 13-34 | 11.4 | 5 | 7 | 39 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 21.9% | 53% |
| 7 | LAC | 17-15 | 1.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0% | 11% |
| 8 | MIA | 28-27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3% | 12% |
| 9 | CHI | 29-9 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 4 | 59 | 1 | 10.5% | 24% |
| 10 | NYJ | 31-6 | 2.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 0% | 12% |
| 12 | SEA | 6-16 | 1.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0% | 16% |
| 13 | MIN | 22-23 | 2.5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 4.7% | 27% |
| 14 | SEA | 18-30 | 5.5 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.5% | 11% |
| Receptions | 16 |
| Targets | 20 |
| Receiving yards | 104 |
| Carries | 24 |
| Rushing yards | 223 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 4.21 |
| Yards per target | 5.2 |
| Catch rate | 80% |
| Yards per carry | 9.29 |
| Snap share | 20.31% |
| Target share | 4.99% |
| Air-yards share | 0.68% |
| WOPR | 0.08 |
| RACR | 1.668 |
| Average depth of target | 1.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 0.6 |
| Total YAC | 95 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 88.3 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.26 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.95 |
| Red-zone targets | 4 |
| Red-zone target share | 6% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.56 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.56 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0 |
The offense threw it 543 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Trey McBride | 28.11% |
| Marvin Harrison | 22.18% |
| Michael Wilson | 13.58% |
| James Conner | 10.52% |
| Greg Dortch | 9.56% |
| Elijah Higgins | 4.59% |
5 of his 13 games were blowouts, 68.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.52 in those and 1.7 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 15 against SF — 14 PPR on 7 touches and a 7.9% target share, in a game that finished 29-45. His worst was Week 3 against DAL at 0.2, on 2 touches, final score 28-16. Across 11 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 3 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 4.4; in the 8 decided by more, 7.5. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 7.2 points per game. He scored 6.66, 7.9% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | NYG | 28-31 | 2.5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 6.9% | 12% |
| 3 | DAL | 28-16 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 18% |
| 4 | SF | 16-35 | 5.4 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 9.8% | 35% |
| 5 | CIN | 20-34 | 12.7 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 45 | 1 | 10% | 77% |
| 6 | LA | 9-26 | 2.7 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 2.6% | 43% |
| 7 | SEA | 10-20 | 11.5 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 13 | 58 | 0 | 15.2% | 80% |
| 8 | BAL | 24-31 | 8.9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 78 | 0 | 2.8% | 55% |
| 12 | LA | 14-37 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 0% | 20% |
| 15 | SF | 29-45 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 64 | 1 | 7.9% | 24% |
| 16 | CHI | 16-27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 40 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 21.6% | 38% |
| 17 | PHI | 35-31 | 1.9 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.7% | 12% |
| Receptions | 21 |
| Targets | 30 |
| Receiving yards | 119 |
| Carries | 58 |
| Rushing yards | 284 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 6.66 |
| Yards per target | 3.97 |
| Catch rate | 70% |
| Yards per carry | 4.9 |
| Snap share | 37.64% |
| Target share | 7.86% |
| Air-yards share | 1.04% |
| WOPR | 0.125 |
| RACR | 4.54 |
| Average depth of target | 0.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 0.5 |
| Total YAC | 109 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 76.9 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -1.36 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.48 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 1.7% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 4.9% |
| Goal-line carry share | 4.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.28 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.28 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.53 |
The offense threw it 555 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Trey McBride | 19.63% |
| Marquise Brown | 18.7% |
| Rondale Moore | 11.48% |
| Michael Wilson | 10.74% |
| Zach Ertz | 7.96% |
| Greg Dortch | 7.59% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Dobbs | 7 | 16 | 6.27 | 4 | 6.76% |
| Kyler Murray | 4 | 14 | 7.35 | 3.93 | 9.8% |
3 of his 11 games were blowouts, 13.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.2 in those and 4.43 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
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