Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 3 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 170, usage worth 5.1.
31 years old · 8 seasons of experience · 2018 draft class
| ESPN | 170 |
| UNDERDOG | 216 |
| FFA | 774 |
| Goes around | Round 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | QB44 |
Pittsburgh Steelers returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing hc, oc. Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, Mike McCarthy as head coach, Brian Angelichio calling it. The offense projects to 33 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 25.3 rushes.
In: Drew Allar (qb2), Michael Pittman Jr. (wr2), Germie Bernard (wr3), Kaden Wejen (wr6), A.T. Perry (wr7), Rico Dowdle (rb2), Eli Heidenreich (rb4). Out: Calvin Austin III (wr2), Adam Thielen (wr4), Kenneth Gainwell (rb2), Jonnu Smith (te2).
The projected target split across the offense:
| DK Metcalf | 21% |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | 13.9% |
| Germie Bernard | 13.6% |
| Pat Freiermuth | 13.1% |
| Jaylen Warren | 10.4% |
| Rico Dowdle | 7.1% |
Key additions: Traded for and Signed Michael Pittman Jr to 3 year $59M deal. Signed RB Rico Dowdle to 2/$12M deal in free agency. Drafted WR Germie Bernard in 2nd round, Drafted OT Max Iheanachor in 1st roud to beef up line. Drafted QB Drew Allar in the 3rd round. Drafted G Gennings Dunker 3rd roud (depth). Bringin in HC Mike McCarthy & Brian Angelichio as OC.
Key departures: RB Kenneth Gainwell left in free agency to Bucs. LG Isaac Seumalo left for Cardinals. WR Calvin Austin III left in free agency for Giants. HC Mike Tomlin & OC Arthur Smith (Ass) are both gone.
Notes: Drafted Bernard round 2 Steelers traded up. Steelers traded for Michael Pittman Jr. who is aging but will elevate the passing game. DK Metcalf looks to get back on track in 2026 & establish himself as WR1. Crowded WR room. Steelers drafted WR Riley Nowakowski in the 4th round & he will likely operate as WR5 or return specialist. Signed Rico Dowdle to 2 year deal in free agency. Warren is slotted to be 1A and Dowdle 1B, but any injury to either back makes the other a home run hit in fantasy for 2026. Aaron Rodgers SHOULD return to Steelers, but also drafted Drew Allar (bad QB but good prospect who should be rostered because he can progress. Zero floor on Allar but the ceiling is very high if he gets better.)
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Aaron Rodgers returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (32.4 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33 att/g; New OC Brian Angelichio — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Mike McCarthy.
Base case 179.3 PPR points, with a bear case of 69.1 and a bull case of 260, and a comp mean of 167.8. The model puts 25% probability on him beating this and 75% on falling short. Drawn from 20 comparable quarterback seasons.
| Comparable season | What he actually scored | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick 2012 | 167.7 | 0.3 |
| Andy Dalton 2011 | 255.3 | 0.4 |
| Philip Rivers 2012 | 315.5 | 0.4 |
| Mike Glennon 2013 | 89.6 | 0.4 |
| Matt Hasselbeck 2010 | 190 | 0.5 |
Cross-check against the dynasty market: his production ranks in the 24th percentile and his value in the 10th, which the engine reads as below production. Players with a similar production-against-value gap saw dynasty value move -3.6% over the following year, across 36 cases — a dynasty signal, not a 2026 scoring one.
Offensive environment: PIT rates 21.3 against a league average of 23, 1.6 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -1.9 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | +2.2 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -1.8 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +3.7 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -45.4% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, QBs recover only 30% of the time (keep falling 70%).
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.8 elite seasons and 3.1 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 2022 | 12 | 70% | -8.9% |
| Drew Lock | 2024 | 11.4 | 66% | -12.4% |
| Jacoby Brissett | 2024 | 6.5 | 61% | +243.4% |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 2022 | 10.6 | 56% | -36.2% |
| Jameis Winston | 2021 | 16.8 | 51% | -15% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 4 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2018, round 3, pick 76 by PIT |
| College | Oklahoma St. |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| Height | 6′5″ |
| Weight | 235 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.9s |
| Vertical | 26″ |
His best game was Week 11 against CIN — 8.98 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 34-12. His worst was Week 13 against BUF at -2, on 0 targets, final score 7-26. Across 5 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 4 times.
His usage that season was worth 5.1 points per game. He scored 3, 50.2% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | SEA | 17-31 | 0.48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 5% |
| 6 | CLE | 23-9 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 5% |
| 11 | CIN | 34-12 | 8.98 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 0% | 43% |
| 12 | CHI | 28-31 | 7.54 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | BUF | 7-26 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 16% |
| Carries | 7 |
| Rushing yards | 6 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 3 |
| Yards per carry | 0.86 |
| Snap share | 33.8% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.27 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.14 |
The offense threw it 550 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| DK Metcalf | 19.04% |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 16.35% |
| Calvin Austin III | 10.58% |
| Jonnu Smith | 10.38% |
| Pat Freiermuth | 10.38% |
| Jaylen Warren | 8.65% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 0 | -0.51 | — | 0% |
| Mason Rudolph | 2 | 0 | 8.26 | — | 0% |
2 of his 5 games were blowouts, 46.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.49 in those and 7.54 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 8 against DET — 19.54 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 14-52. His worst was Week 18 against HOU at 3.3, on 0 targets, final score 14-23. Across 8 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 3 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14.6; in the 5 decided by more, 10.4. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 15.2 points per game. He scored 11.97, 21.2% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | MIA | 31-12 | 3.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 83% |
| 7 | BUF | 10-34 | 9.9 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | DET | 14-52 | 19.54 | 0 | 4 | 29 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | NE | 20-17 | 17.5 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | CIN | 27-37 | 15.76 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 53% |
| 16 | IND | 30-38 | 14.38 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | JAX | 13-20 | 12.02 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 18 | HOU | 14-23 | 3.3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 42% |
| Carries | 25 |
| Rushing yards | 106 |
| Touchdowns | 10 |
| Points per game | 11.97 |
| Yards per carry | 4.24 |
| Snap share | 84.75% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.62 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.12 |
The offense threw it 530 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Calvin Ridley | 23.72% |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 13.83% |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 11.86% |
| Tyler Boyd | 11.26% |
| Tony Pollard | 11.26% |
| Josh Whyle | 7.31% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Rudolph | 7 | 0 | 13.21 | — | 0% |
| Will Levis | 1 | 0 | 3.3 | — | 0% |
3 of his 8 games were blowouts, 34.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.95 in those and 14.63 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 16 against CIN — 20 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 34-11. His worst was Week 15 against IND at 0.12, on 0 targets, final score 13-30. Across 4 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 2 times.
His usage that season was worth 11.4 points per game. He scored 9.89, 1.2% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | IND | 13-30 | 0.12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 10% |
| 16 | CIN | 34-11 | 20 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | SEA | 30-23 | 11.46 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 18 | BAL | 17-10 | 7.98 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| Carries | 10 |
| Rushing yards | 8 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 9.89 |
| Yards per carry | 0.8 |
| Snap share | 77.5% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.84 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 2.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.17 |
The offense threw it 506 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| George Pickens | 21.9% |
| Diontae Johnson | 17.98% |
| Jaylen Warren | 15.29% |
| Allen Robinson | 10.12% |
| Pat Freiermuth | 9.71% |
| Najee Harris | 7.85% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Rudolph | 3 | 0 | 13.15 | — | 0% |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | — | 0% |
2 of his 4 games were blowouts, 50.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.06 in those and 9.72 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His usage that season was worth 14.8 points per game. He scored 9.19, 37.9% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | DET | 16-16 | 15.28 | 0 | 4 | 36 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | KC | 10-36 | 3.1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 0% | 14% |
| Carries | 5 |
| Rushing yards | 53 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 9.19 |
| Yards per carry | 10.6 |
| Snap share | 57% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 1.53 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 2.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.05 |
The offense threw it 663 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Diontae Johnson | 26% |
| Chase Claypool | 16.15% |
| Najee Harris | 14.46% |
| Pat Freiermuth | 12.15% |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 10.15% |
| James Washington | 6.77% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Rudolph | 1 | 0 | 15.28 | — | 0% |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 0 | 3.1 | — | 0% |
1 of his 2 games were blowouts, 16.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.1 in those and 15.28 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 17 against CLE — 18.7 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 22-24. His worst was Week 11 against JAX at -0.4, on 0 targets, final score 27-3. Across 4 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 3 times.
His usage that season was worth 6.4 points per game. He scored 4.59, 28.6% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | CLE | 38-7 | -0.06 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 0% | 11% |
| 9 | DAL | 24-19 | 0.12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 6% |
| 11 | JAX | 27-3 | -0.4 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 | 0% | 8% |
| 17 | CLE | 22-24 | 18.7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0% | 87% |
| Carries | 7 |
| Rushing yards | -6 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 4.59 |
| Yards per carry | -0.86 |
| Snap share | 28% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -1.9 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0 |
The offense threw it 656 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Diontae Johnson | 22.12% |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 19.66% |
| Chase Claypool | 16.74% |
| Eric Ebron | 13.98% |
| James Washington | 8.6% |
| James Conner | 6.61% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 0 | -0.11 | — | 0% |
| Mason Rudolph | 1 | 0 | 18.7 | — | 0% |
2 of his 4 games were blowouts, -2.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged -0.23 in those and 9.41 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
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