Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 11.91 points per game in 2025, usage worth 11.1.
28 years old · 6 seasons of experience · 2020 draft class
Indianapolis Colts returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1. Daniel Jones at quarterback, Shane Steichen as head coach, Jim Bob Cooter calling it. The offense projects to 32.5 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 26.1 rushes.
In: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (wr3), Deion Burks (wr5), Seth McGowan (rb3), Anderson Castle (rb4). Out: Michael Pittman Jr (wr1), Adonai Mitchell (wr4), Ameer Abdullah (rb3).
The projected target split across the offense:
| Josh Downs | 20.1% |
| Tyler Warren | 19.1% |
| Alec Pierce | 17% |
| Jonathan Taylor | 10.1% |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 10% |
| Deion Burks | 4.8% |
What the offense looks like: The Colts seriously need Daniel Jones to BE THAT GUY. Taylor, Downs, and especially Alec Pierce rely on having a highly productive passing game that helps lift the entire offense as whole. Tyler Warren has shown flashes of being the next George Kittle, really awesome player.
Key additions: Colts brought in WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine in free agency. Westbrook-Ikhine was a highly dynamic WR while in Tennessee. Could be nohting, but could help.
Key departures: WR Michael Pittman Jr traded to Steelers. QB Anthony Richardson requested a trade & will not play again for the Colts.
Notes: Anthony Richardson will be traded or released. Daniel Jones on track for full recovery from torn achilles & landed extension. Very positive for offense. Jonathan Taylor aging but HIGHLY productive. Alec Pierce lands MASSVIVE 4 year contract & Colts invested in him as their WR1. Josh Downs is primed for an increase workload & could truly break out in 2026. Michael Pittman Jr. traded to Steelers. Tyler Warren is a top TE in dynasty & could have a MASSIVE season next year.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Daniel Jones returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (32.1 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.5 att/g.
Offensive environment: IND rates 23.3 against a league average of 23, 0.3 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +1.1 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | +4.7 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -0.8 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +2.9 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +3.6% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 2024 | 12.7 | 72% | -4.3% |
| Terry McLaurin | 2024 | 15.8 | 69% | -16.4% |
| Jerry Jeudy | 2024 | 14.2 | 64% | -22.4% |
| Diontae Johnson | 2024 | 8.1 | 63% | -53.6% |
| Terry McLaurin | 2023 | 12 | 62% | +39.7% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 4 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2020, round 2, pick 34 by IND |
| College | USC |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′4″ |
| Weight | 223 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.52s |
| Vertical | 36.5″ |
| Broad jump | 121″ |
| 3-cone | 6.96s |
| Shuttle | 4.14s |
| Career PPR per game | 12.3 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.6 |
| Boom rate | 20.8% |
| Bust rate | 23.4% |
| Games missed per season | 0.3 |
| Injury history | Calf, Back |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.68 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 8 against TEN — 23.5 PPR on 9 targets and a 32.1% target share, in a game that finished 38-14. His worst was Week 13 against HOU at 2.3, on 4 targets, final score 16-20. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8; in the 7 decided by more, 17.5. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 11.1 points per game. He scored 11.91, 6.8% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | 33-8 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 80 | 1 | 27.6% | — |
| 2 | DEN | 29-28 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 | 15.2% | — |
| 3 | TEN | 41-20 | 19.3 | 6 | 6 | 73 | 1 | 24% | — |
| 4 | LA | 20-27 | 15.1 | 5 | 10 | 41 | 1 | 31.3% | — |
| 5 | LV | 40-6 | 14.9 | 5 | 6 | 39 | 1 | 19.4% | — |
| 6 | ARI | 31-27 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 10% | — |
| 7 | LAC | 38-24 | 20.8 | 7 | 9 | 58 | 1 | 28.1% | — |
| 8 | TEN | 38-14 | 23.5 | 8 | 9 | 95 | 1 | 32.1% | — |
| 9 | PIT | 20-27 | 20.5 | 9 | 12 | 115 | 0 | 25% | — |
| 10 | ATL | 31-25 | 3.9 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 7.7% | — |
| 12 | KC | 20-23 | 13.7 | 5 | 8 | 27 | 1 | 25.8% | — |
| 13 | HOU | 16-20 | 2.3 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 16% | — |
| 14 | JAX | 19-36 | 16.9 | 9 | 12 | 79 | 0 | 33.3% | — |
| 15 | SEA | 16-18 | 5.6 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 19.2% | — |
| 16 | SF | 27-48 | 7.2 | 4 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 13.9% | — |
| 17 | JAX | 17-23 | 3.6 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 10.3% | — |
| 18 | HOU | 30-38 | 3.1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 12.1% | — |
| Receptions | 80 |
| Targets | 111 |
| Receiving yards | 784 |
| Touchdowns | 7 |
| Points per game | 11.91 |
| Yards per target | 7.06 |
| Catch rate | 72.07% |
| Target share | 20.65% |
| Air-yards share | 20.99% |
| WOPR | 0.458 |
| RACR | 0.959 |
| Average depth of target | 8.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.6 |
| Total YAC | 259 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 93.8 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.31 |
| Red-zone targets | 15 |
| Red-zone target share | 19.5% |
| End-zone target share | 23.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.23 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 5 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.77 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 25 of 44 |
| Yards per target | 38 of 44 |
| Target share | 28 of 44 |
| Air-yards share | 39 of 44 |
The offense threw it 546 times. He took 21.02% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Tyler Warren | 21.21% |
| Michael Pittman ← | 21.02% |
| Josh Downs | 16.67% |
| Alec Pierce | 15.91% |
| Jonathan Taylor | 10.42% |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 3.79% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 12 | 82 | 13.83 | 7.56 | 21.85% |
| Philip Rivers | 3 | 13 | 5.47 | 5.69 | 14.47% |
| Riley Leonard | 2 | 16 | 10 | 5.63 | 22.7% |
6 of his 17 games were blowouts, 50.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 16.97 in those and 7.98 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 17 against NYG — 25.9 PPR on 10 targets and a 27% target share, in a game that finished 33-45. His worst was Week 9 against MIN at 2.4, on 4 targets, final score 13-21. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 13 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.8; in the 3 decided by more, 17.1. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 12.3 points per game. He scored 10.36, 15.7% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | 27-29 | 7.1 | 4 | 8 | 31 | 0 | 42.1% | — |
| 2 | GB | 10-16 | 5.1 | 3 | 7 | 21 | 0 | 22.6% | — |
| 3 | CHI | 21-16 | 7.6 | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 | 27.8% | — |
| 4 | PIT | 27-24 | 17.3 | 6 | 9 | 113 | 0 | 32.1% | — |
| 5 | JAX | 34-37 | 14.7 | 5 | 8 | 37 | 1 | 17.8% | — |
| 6 | TEN | 20-17 | 12.5 | 3 | 5 | 35 | 1 | 13.9% | — |
| 7 | MIA | 16-10 | 9.3 | 3 | 5 | 63 | 0 | 22.7% | — |
| 8 | HOU | 20-23 | 2.6 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 0 | 19.4% | — |
| 9 | MIN | 13-21 | 2.4 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 14.8% | — |
| 11 | NYJ | 28-27 | 9.6 | 5 | 8 | 46 | 0 | 28.6% | — |
| 12 | DET | 6-24 | 15.6 | 6 | 7 | 96 | 0 | 28% | — |
| 13 | NE | 25-24 | 9.2 | 5 | 7 | 42 | 0 | 29.2% | — |
| 15 | DEN | 13-31 | 9.8 | 6 | 9 | 58 | 0 | 25% | — |
| 16 | TEN | 38-30 | 3.9 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 27.3% | — |
| 17 | NYG | 33-45 | 25.9 | 9 | 10 | 109 | 1 | 27% | — |
| 18 | JAX | 26-23 | 13.2 | 6 | 10 | 72 | 0 | 25.6% | — |
| Receptions | 69 |
| Targets | 111 |
| Receiving yards | 808 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 10.36 |
| Yards per target | 7.28 |
| Catch rate | 62.16% |
| Target share | 25.24% |
| Air-yards share | 24.6% |
| WOPR | 0.552 |
| RACR | 0.696 |
| Average depth of target | 11 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8 |
| Total YAC | 259 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 78.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.08 |
| Red-zone targets | 13 |
| Red-zone target share | 20.3% |
| End-zone target share | 23.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.7 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.3 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 41 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 38 of 51 |
| Target share | 20 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 39 of 51 |
The offense threw it 513 times. He took 22.61% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Michael Pittman ← | 22.61% |
| Josh Downs | 21.79% |
| Alec Pierce | 14.05% |
| Adonai Mitchell | 11.2% |
| Jonathan Taylor | 6.31% |
| Kylen Granson | 6.31% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Richardson | 10 | 65 | 7.98 | 6.58 | 27.27% |
| Joe Flacco | 6 | 46 | 14.33 | 8.26 | 21.87% |
2 of his 16 games were blowouts, 15.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 12.7 in those and 8.81 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 13 against TEN — 27.5 PPR on 16 targets and a 39% target share, in a game that finished 31-28. His worst was Week 4 against LA at 4.5, on 5 targets, final score 23-29. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14.6; in the 7 decided by more, 17.3. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 16.8 points per game. He scored 15.76, 5.9% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 2 against 3.87 expected, a gap of -1.9.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | 21-31 | 23.7 | 8 | 11 | 97 | 1 | 28.2% | — |
| 2 | HOU | 31-20 | 13.6 | 8 | 12 | 56 | 0 | 38.7% | — |
| 3 | BAL | 22-19 | 16.7 | 9 | 11 | 77 | 0 | 26.2% | — |
| 4 | LA | 23-29 | 4.5 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 20.8% | — |
| 5 | TEN | 23-16 | 10.2 | 5 | 7 | 52 | 0 | 29.2% | — |
| 6 | JAX | 20-37 | 19.9 | 9 | 14 | 109 | 0 | 26.9% | — |
| 7 | CLE | 38-39 | 16.3 | 2 | 5 | 83 | 1 | 22.7% | — |
| 8 | NO | 27-38 | 18 | 8 | 13 | 40 | 1 | 34.2% | — |
| 9 | CAR | 27-13 | 14.4 | 8 | 8 | 64 | 0 | 33.3% | — |
| 10 | NE | 10-6 | 16.4 | 8 | 12 | 84 | 0 | 46.2% | — |
| 12 | TB | 27-20 | 20.7 | 10 | 13 | 107 | 0 | 32.5% | — |
| 13 | TEN | 31-28 | 27.5 | 11 | 16 | 105 | 1 | 39% | — |
| 14 | CIN | 14-34 | 19.5 | 8 | 11 | 95 | 0 | 28.9% | — |
| 15 | PIT | 30-13 | 11.8 | 4 | 5 | 78 | 0 | 18.5% | — |
| 17 | LV | 23-20 | 9.6 | 5 | 7 | 46 | 0 | 35% | — |
| 18 | HOU | 19-23 | 9.4 | 5 | 6 | 44 | 0 | 26.1% | — |
| Receptions | 109 |
| Targets | 156 |
| Receiving yards | 1,152 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 15.76 |
| Yards per target | 7.38 |
| Catch rate | 69.87% |
| Target share | 30.4% |
| Air-yards share | 32.67% |
| WOPR | 0.686 |
| RACR | 0.993 |
| Average depth of target | 7.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 5.9 |
| Total YAC | 513 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 83.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.76 |
| Red-zone targets | 20 |
| Red-zone target share | 30.8% |
| End-zone target share | 23.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.87 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.87 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 14 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 40 of 51 |
| Target share | 4 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 24 of 51 |
The offense threw it 574 times. He took 28.57% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Michael Pittman ← | 28.57% |
| Josh Downs | 17.95% |
| Alec Pierce | 11.9% |
| Kylen Granson | 9.16% |
| Zack Moss | 6.78% |
| Will Mallory | 4.76% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 14 | 140 | 16 | 7.43 | 31.24% |
| Anthony Richardson | 2 | 16 | 14.1 | 7 | 24.5% |
3 of his 16 games were blowouts, 20.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 17.07 in those and 14.59 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 1 against HOU — 27.1 PPR on 13 targets and a 26.5% target share, in a game that finished 20-20. His worst was Week 13 against DAL at 3.6, on 4 targets, final score 19-54. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 15.8; in the 5 decided by more, 8.5. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 15.1 points per game. He scored 13.53, 10.1% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | 20-20 | 27.1 | 9 | 13 | 121 | 1 | 26.5% | — |
| 3 | KC | 20-17 | 15.2 | 8 | 9 | 72 | 0 | 25% | — |
| 4 | TEN | 17-24 | 6.1 | 3 | 6 | 31 | 0 | 16.7% | — |
| 5 | DEN | 12-9 | 10.9 | 5 | 8 | 59 | 0 | 22.2% | — |
| 6 | JAX | 34-27 | 26.4 | 13 | 16 | 134 | 0 | 28.6% | — |
| 7 | TEN | 10-19 | 9.8 | 6 | 9 | 58 | 0 | 22% | — |
| 8 | WAS | 16-17 | 12.3 | 7 | 9 | 53 | 0 | 39.1% | — |
| 9 | NE | 3-26 | 5.2 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 21.4% | — |
| 10 | LV | 25-20 | 12.3 | 7 | 9 | 53 | 0 | 33.3% | — |
| 11 | PHI | 16-17 | 13.5 | 6 | 7 | 75 | 0 | 22.6% | — |
| 12 | PIT | 17-24 | 19.1 | 7 | 11 | 61 | 1 | 34.4% | — |
| 13 | DAL | 19-54 | 3.6 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 11.4% | — |
| 15 | MIN | 36-39 | 19 | 10 | 14 | 60 | 0 | 45.2% | — |
| 16 | LAC | 3-20 | 7.9 | 4 | 7 | 39 | 0 | 25% | — |
| 17 | NYG | 10-38 | 16.1 | 6 | 8 | 41 | 1 | 29.6% | — |
| 18 | HOU | 31-32 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 30 | 1 | 14.7% | — |
| Receptions | 99 |
| Targets | 141 |
| Receiving yards | 925 |
| Carries | 3 |
| Rushing yards | 30 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 13.53 |
| Yards per target | 6.56 |
| Catch rate | 70.21% |
| Yards per carry | 10 |
| Target share | 26.11% |
| Air-yards share | 27.84% |
| WOPR | 0.588 |
| RACR | 0.976 |
| Average depth of target | 6.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 5.7 |
| Total YAC | 357 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 88.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.29 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.09 |
| Red-zone targets | 14 |
| Red-zone target share | 22.2% |
| End-zone target share | 25% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.09 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.09 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 22 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 48 of 51 |
| Target share | 17 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 32 of 51 |
The offense threw it 604 times. He took 24.35% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Michael Pittman ← | 24.35% |
| Parris Campbell | 15.72% |
| Alec Pierce | 13.47% |
| Jonathan Taylor | 6.91% |
| Kylen Granson | 6.91% |
| Jelani Woods | 6.91% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 11 | 106 | 14.82 | 6.98 | 26.17% |
| Sam Ehlinger | 4 | 28 | 11.4 | 5.21 | 26.2% |
| Nick Foles | 1 | 7 | 7.9 | 5.57 | 25% |
4 of his 16 games were blowouts, 15.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.2 in those and 15.81 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 8 against TEN — 30.6 PPR on 15 targets and a 31.3% target share, in a game that finished 31-34. His worst was Week 15 against NE at 1.7, on 5 targets, final score 27-17. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 17.2; in the 10 decided by more, 11.8. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 13.1 points per game. He scored 14.04, 6.8% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | 16-28 | 5.9 | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 11.4% | — |
| 2 | LA | 24-27 | 20.3 | 8 | 12 | 123 | 0 | 34.3% | — |
| 3 | TEN | 16-25 | 13.3 | 6 | 12 | 68 | 0 | 35.3% | — |
| 4 | MIA | 27-17 | 11.9 | 6 | 8 | 59 | 0 | 25% | — |
| 5 | BAL | 25-31 | 20.9 | 6 | 7 | 89 | 1 | 20.6% | — |
| 6 | HOU | 31-3 | 5.8 | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 16.7% | — |
| 7 | SF | 30-18 | 20.5 | 4 | 4 | 105 | 1 | 15.4% | — |
| 8 | TEN | 31-34 | 30.6 | 10 | 15 | 86 | 2 | 31.3% | — |
| 9 | NYJ | 45-30 | 17.4 | 5 | 6 | 64 | 1 | 20.7% | — |
| 10 | JAX | 23-17 | 12.1 | 5 | 5 | 71 | 0 | 15.2% | — |
| 11 | BUF | 41-15 | 4.3 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 25% | — |
| 12 | TB | 31-38 | 9.3 | 4 | 10 | 53 | 0 | 23.3% | — |
| 13 | HOU | 31-0 | 17 | 6 | 8 | 77 | 0 | 36.4% | — |
| 15 | NE | 27-17 | 1.7 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 41.7% | — |
| 16 | ARI | 22-16 | 16.5 | 8 | 12 | 82 | 0 | 42.9% | — |
| 17 | LV | 20-23 | 10.7 | 6 | 6 | 47 | 0 | 25% | — |
| 18 | JAX | 11-26 | 20.4 | 6 | 7 | 64 | 1 | 24.1% | — |
| Receptions | 88 |
| Targets | 129 |
| Receiving yards | 1,082 |
| Carries | 5 |
| Rushing yards | 44 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 14.04 |
| Yards per target | 8.39 |
| Catch rate | 68.22% |
| Yards per carry | 8.8 |
| Target share | 26.14% |
| Air-yards share | 32.46% |
| WOPR | 0.618 |
| RACR | 1.108 |
| Average depth of target | 9.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.3 |
| Total YAC | 348 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 99.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.83 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.09 |
| Red-zone targets | 17 |
| Red-zone target share | 25% |
| End-zone target share | 26.9% |
| Red-zone carry share | 0.9% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.27 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.27 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.05 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 23 of 48 |
| Yards per target | 19 of 48 |
| Target share | 13 of 48 |
| Air-yards share | 17 of 48 |
The offense threw it 521 times. He took 25.75% of the targets. 0 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Michael Pittman ← | 25.75% |
| Zach Pascal | 13.77% |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 11.38% |
| Jonathan Taylor | 10.18% |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 8.98% |
| Jack Doyle | 8.58% |
3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 11.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.03 in those and 17.2 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 10 against TEN — 19.2 PPR on 8 targets and a 22.2% target share, in a game that finished 34-17. His worst was Week 8 against DET at 1.6, on 1 targets, final score 41-21. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.8; in the 8 decided by more, 7.5. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 9.1 points per game. He scored 7.61, 10.9% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 2.42 expected, a gap of -2.4.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | 20-27 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 4.3% | — |
| 2 | MIN | 28-11 | 7.7 | 4 | 6 | 37 | 0 | 24% | — |
| 3 | NYJ | 36-7 | 5.6 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 16% | — |
| 8 | DET | 41-21 | 1.6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | — |
| 9 | BAL | 10-24 | 9.6 | 4 | 7 | 56 | 0 | 17.5% | — |
| 10 | TEN | 34-17 | 19.2 | 7 | 8 | 101 | 0 | 22.2% | — |
| 11 | GB | 34-31 | 15.6 | 3 | 3 | 66 | 1 | 8.6% | — |
| 12 | TEN | 26-45 | 4.8 | 2 | 9 | 28 | 0 | 21.4% | — |
| 13 | HOU | 26-20 | 9.6 | 5 | 5 | 46 | 0 | 14.3% | — |
| 14 | LV | 44-27 | 6.5 | 2 | 5 | 42 | 0 | 18.5% | — |
| 15 | HOU | 27-20 | 3.9 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 10.3% | — |
| 16 | PIT | 24-28 | 6.8 | 3 | 6 | 38 | 0 | 17.6% | — |
| 17 | JAX | 28-14 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 7.7% | — |
| Receptions | 40 |
| Targets | 61 |
| Receiving yards | 503 |
| Carries | 3 |
| Rushing yards | 26 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 7.61 |
| Yards per target | 8.25 |
| Catch rate | 65.57% |
| Yards per carry | 8.67 |
| Target share | 14.26% |
| Air-yards share | 15.07% |
| WOPR | 0.318 |
| RACR | 1.905 |
| Average depth of target | 8.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 5.3 |
| Total YAC | 293 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 89.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.7 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.11 |
| Red-zone targets | 12 |
| Red-zone target share | 13.8% |
| End-zone target share | 4% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.42 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -2.42 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.05 |
The offense threw it 552 times. He took 11.4% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| T.Y. Hilton | 17.38% |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 14.21% |
| Zach Pascal | 13.27% |
| Michael Pittman ← | 11.4% |
| Trey Burton | 8.79% |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 7.29% |
6 of his 13 games were blowouts, 45.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.57 in those and 7.78 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Michael Pittman →