Roman Wilson
Overview
Board Oct 12Week 5 rest-of-season review, Oct 12, 2026. The three reads are where our backtested model, the betting market and his 2026 production each place him at WR; our board rank is the call.
Where his stats say he could finish from here: WR70 to WR98. Our rank stays the call.
2026 so far5 games
- target share down from 17.1% to 10.1% (last 2 games vs the three before)
- snap share down from 58% to 32% (last 2 games vs the three before)
Ranked among 103 qualified WRs this season.
80% range 2.9–9.0 half-PPR points a game. Biggest inputs: TDs so far +0.2, points so far +0.2, 2025 snap share -0.2, start vs 2025 level -0.2. The model informs the rank; it does not set it.
Week 6
Lines Oct 14PIT
TB0 points. Our projection does not expect him to play this week.
Updated Oct 14, 2026.
Allowed to WRs per game across 5 games. Best games against them: George Pickens (W5, 28 PPR, 9/13 130 yds); Denzel Boston (W2, 20.5 PPR, 5/7 95 yds); Jordan Addison (W3, 20 PPR, 5/9 90 yds).
EPA ranks entering Week 6: #11 against the pass, #2 against the run (1 = best defense).
Big number: receiving fantasy points TB allows a game to WRs in that zone. # = its rank of 32. Green tag = Roman Wilson's share of his targets in that zone this season. Depth is air yards at the catch point; 5 games, through Week 5. Tap a zone for the detail.
0-0 rec on 1 tgt
Game log
2026 · through W5Every gametap a game for the detail
PIT -6.5 (closing) · total 40.5 · 77°F, wind 4 mph · 7 days rest
Projected 4.0 (WR84) · PIT +4.5 (closing) · total 41.5 · 63°F, wind 7 mph · 7 days rest
Projected 4.6 (WR77) · PIT +3.5 (closing) · total 42.5 · 70°F, wind 12 mph · 7 days rest · division game
Projected 5.8 (WR66) · PIT -2.5 (closing) · total 38.5 · 77°F, wind 11 mph · 4 days rest · prime time · division game
Projected 7.1 (WR48) · PIT -3 (closing) · total 41.5 · 10 days rest
D# = the opponent's rank against WRs entering that week (1 = stingiest, 32 = softest). Finish = his rank at WR that week.
Usage
What changedlast 3 full games vs. before
| W1, W2 | W3, W4, W5 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snap share | 67.0% | 34.3% | −32.7 |
| Target share | 16.2% | 12.7% | −3.5 |
| Air-yard share | 20.4% | 21.0% | +0.6 |
| Targets a game | 6.0 | 4.3 | −1.7 |
Games he left injured are left out of both sides.
PIT target treeshare of team targets, 2026
Season to date, games each player played.
Role details2026, through Week 5
Advanced
Percentile against the WRs on our charts (each stat's minimum is next to it), 2026 through Week 5. 50 is the middle of the pack. Tap a bubble for his rank.
Expected vs. actualPPR, from this season's play-by-play
2 TDs on 1.05 expected. Expected points price every target by depth and field position and every carry by field position. Do touchdowns regress? ›
Splits
As a receiver2026 charted plays, through Week 5
| Situation | Tgt | Rec-Yds-TD | Yds/tgt | EPA/tgt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All targets | 25 | 14-188-2 | 7.58.2 | 0.250.27 |
| Red zone8% of targets | 2 | 1-12-1 | 6.04.4 | 1.170.18 |
| Third down32% of targets | 8 | 3-75-1 | 9.47.1 | 0.400.14 |
| Score within 764% of targets | 16 | 8-103-2 | 6.48.1 | 0.210.26 |
| Trailing by 8+36% of targets | 9 | 6-85-0 | 9.48.2 | 0.330.28 |
| Two-minute drill40% of targets | 10 | 3-73-0 | 7.37.5 | -0.160.17 |
| Vs. the blitz4% of targets | 1 | 0-0-0 | 0.07.9 | -1.210.23 |
| No blitz96% of targets | 24 | 14-188-2 | 7.88.4 | 0.320.29 |
| With motion36% of targets | 9 | 5-72-1 | 8.08.3 | 0.040.32 |
| Screens20% of targets | 5 | 5-25-0 | 5.04.7 | 0.21-0.20 |
Small grey number = every WR in that situation. Green or red = a clear gap either way. 17 of his 25 charted targets were catchable; 1 drop, 1 of 4 contested caught.
Against coverage2025 (2026 is not charted per player)
| Coverage | Tgt | Yds/tgt | Caught | EPA/tgt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zone | 12 | 6.3 | 58% | −0.19 |
Team
PITPittsburgh Steelers offense, 2026 through Week 5. Rank 1 = most. Scheme rates from FTN charting through Week 5.
Game by gamescore, implied total, pass rate (over expected), QB
| Week | Score | Implied | Pass rate | QB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1vs ATL | 20-13 | 23.5 | 71%+10.6 | Rodgers40 att |
| W2vs NE | 3-20 | 18.5 | 66%−4.7 | Rodgers39 att |
| W3vs CIN | 30-27 | 19.5 | 63%+2.3 | Rodgers34 att |
| W4vs CLE | 24-27 | 20.5 | 70%+0.8 | Rodgers40 att |
| W5vs IND | 34-22 | 22.3 | 62%+3.2 | Rodgers31 att |
Depth chartWR, Oct 14
Scheduleeach defense's current rank vs WRs
Green = soft, red = stingy (1 = stingiest, 32 = softest), ranked on fantasy points allowed to WRs so far. Gold underline = fantasy playoffs. Does strength of schedule matter? ›
Head coach: Mike McCarthy. QB: Aaron Rodgers (most pass attempts, Week 5).
Charts
Roman Wilson is highlighted on each chart. Swipe for more; tap a dot for the player. Every chart saves and shares as an image on the Charts page.
Career
Season by season
| Year | G | Rec-Yds-TD | Pts/g | xFP/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026PIT | 5 | 14-188-225 tgt, 14.1% share | 7.6WR49 | 8.9+0.5 |
| 2025PIT | 9 | 12-166-221 tgt, 7.7% share, routes 35% | 3.6WR96 | 4.0+2.7 |
Under points a game: his rank at WR in points a game (8+ games; 2026: 2+ games). xFP = expected PPR a game from his usage; under it, the season's points over expected. Routes = share of team dropbacks he ran a route (through 2025).
Red zone and touchdowns
| 2025 | 1 RZ tgt (1%), 0 end-zone, 0 rec TD vs 0.3 exp |
Floor and ceilingPPR
0 of his last 9 games reached 20 PPR; 7 finished under 10. Is there a floor-vs-ceiling trade-off? ›
Every game since 2025
2025 game log 9 games · PIT · 4.3 PPR a game
| Game | Line | Snaps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| W2vs SEA · D22 | 1-7 on 2 tgt | 35% | 1.2 |
| W6vs CLE · D21 | 1-12 on 1 tgt | 25% | 1.7 |
| W7@ CIN · D17 | 2-17 on 2 tgt | 58% | 2.7 |
| W8vs GB · D19 | 4-74-1 on 5 tgt | 46% | 15.4 |
| W9vs IND · D29 | 1-4 on 2 tgt | 47% | -1.1 |
| W10@ LAC · D6 | 2-35-1 on 3 tgt | 35% | 10.5 |
| W11vs CIN · D17 | 1-17 on 2 tgt | 57% | 2.2 |
| W12@ CHI · D24 | 0-0 on 3 tgt | 28% | 0.0 |
| W13vs BUF · D16 | 0-0 on 1 tgt | 44% | 0.0 |
Health
Out · concern high · through Week 7. Finger injury in Week 5. Mike McCarthy ruled him out for Week 6 at Tampa Bay; ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reports he will miss multiple weeks.
Our note, Oct 13, 2026 · NFL.com news roundup (Mon 10/12); Forbes injury report (Tue 10/13)
2026 injury reportofficial, week by week
✓ = not listed. Letters = game status (Q, D, O) or worst practice that week (LP limited, DNP did not practice). Tap a week for the detail.
Historyofficial injury reports since 2020
| Year | Weeks listed | Ruled out | Listed for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 7 | 3 | Ankle (4), Hamstring (3) |
Teammates on the report
Our current notes first, then Sleeper designations. What happens when a starter is ruled out? ›
Value
Market Oct 10Market value on a 0–10,000 scale, through Oct 10, 2026. Faint stretches are estimates between real readings. Gold = peak.
Teal dot = today (3,190). Box = the middle half of outcomes, white line = the median, whiskers = 10th to 90th percentile. WRs about 25 valued near #180 overall: real 1-year moves since 2022, weighted by exact age and market rank (about 132 players' worth).
2023 David Bell (51% match). His dynasty value moved −40.6% over the next 12 months.
169.9 overall, WR73. ESPN 169.9 · Underdog 215.8
Profile
Athletic profilepercentile vs WRs at the combine since 2010
College production
| Year | G | Rec-Yds-TD | Yds share | Dominator |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Michigan | 12 | 41-662-11 | 23.8% | 38.1 |
| 2022Michigan | 11 | 20-272-3 | 11.9% | 15.4 |
| 2021Michigan | 11 | 24-378-3 | 14.2% | 14.6 |
| 2020Michigan | 5 | 9-122-1 | 9.2% | 10.9 |
Share = his share of his team's receiving yards. Dominator = average of his share of receiving yards and TDs.