RB · PIT · GWTTKB

Rico Dowdle — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 12.72 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 89.5, usage worth 13.

28 years old · 6 seasons of experience · 2020 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.
ADP 89.5
Consensus across 4 books, standard deviation 15.8, 38.2 picks between cheapest and priciest. Cheapest on espn, priciest on cbs.
SLEEPER88.1
ESPN110.9
YAHOO86.2
UNDERDOG86.5
CBS72.7
FFA76

Draft-room facts

Goes aroundRound 8, pick 6 in a 12-team draft
Positional rankRB30
Bye week9
ADP standard deviation15.8 picks

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 164.2 points, 10.3 per game — 704 rushing yards, 5 rushing TDs, 30.3 catches. That is RB4, 76 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 7.3 points per game to a ceiling of 18.4, with the median at 10.3. Boom rate 78%, bust rate 29%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

He goes at 89.5 on consensus and our board has him 76. We rank him 13.5 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.

Our written view

cleared 1,300 yards in back-to-back seasons *on two different teams*, which is unusually hard to do and is treated as real signal of talent, even while acknowledging the uncertainty of changing teams again complicates projecting it forward a third time.

hold · medium conviction · 2026-08

The offense he plays in, 2026

Pittsburgh Steelers returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing hc, oc. Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, Mike McCarthy as head coach, Brian Angelichio calling it. The offense projects to 33 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 25.3 rushes.

In: Drew Allar (qb2), Michael Pittman Jr. (wr2), Germie Bernard (wr3), Kaden Wejen (wr6), A.T. Perry (wr7), Rico Dowdle (rb2), Eli Heidenreich (rb4). Out: Calvin Austin III (wr2), Adam Thielen (wr4), Kenneth Gainwell (rb2), Jonnu Smith (te2).

The projected carry split across the offense:

Jaylen Warren50.2%
Rico Dowdle 38.2%
Kaleb Johnson9.6%
Eli Heidenreich2%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

Key additions: Traded for and Signed Michael Pittman Jr to 3 year $59M deal. Signed RB Rico Dowdle to 2/$12M deal in free agency. Drafted WR Germie Bernard in 2nd round, Drafted OT Max Iheanachor in 1st roud to beef up line. Drafted QB Drew Allar in the 3rd round. Drafted G Gennings Dunker 3rd roud (depth). Bringin in HC Mike McCarthy & Brian Angelichio as OC.

Key departures: RB Kenneth Gainwell left in free agency to Bucs. LG Isaac Seumalo left for Cardinals. WR Calvin Austin III left in free agency for Giants. HC Mike Tomlin & OC Arthur Smith (Ass) are both gone.

Notes: Drafted Bernard round 2 Steelers traded up. Steelers traded for Michael Pittman Jr. who is aging but will elevate the passing game. DK Metcalf looks to get back on track in 2026 & establish himself as WR1. Crowded WR room. Steelers drafted WR Riley Nowakowski in the 4th round & he will likely operate as WR5 or return specialist. Signed Rico Dowdle to 2 year deal in free agency. Warren is slotted to be 1A and Dowdle 1B, but any injury to either back makes the other a home run hit in fantasy for 2026. Aaron Rodgers SHOULD return to Steelers, but also drafted Drew Allar (bad QB but good prospect who should be rostered because he can progress. Zero floor on Allar but the ceiling is very high if he gets better.)

How the volume number was reached: Same QB Aaron Rodgers returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (32.4 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33 att/g; New OC Brian Angelichio — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Mike McCarthy.

How the carry projection was built

Projected carry share38.2%
Projected carries per game7.9
Projected carries, full season135
Last season, carries per game13.4

That is a reduction of 5.5 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 25.3 rushing attempts a game.

Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.

Offensive environment: PIT rates 21.3 against a league average of 23, 1.6 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season-0.4 · neutral
Weeks 1–6+0.5 · neutral
Weeks 12–17-6 · harder
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)+4.2 · easier

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

Read the full Rico Dowdle study →

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved +50.4% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, RBs crash the following year 59% of the time (hold 41%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 59% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Raheem Mostert202317.862%-48.5%
Tony Pollard202313.161%+4.4%
Zack Moss202312.160%-2%
Tony Pollard202412.559%-1.9%
Devin Singletary202211.159%+25.8%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 1 lost it and 2 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

02,0004,000202120222023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2020-04 to 2026-07. From 0 to 3,068, peaking at 4,144.

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Height5′11″
Weight213 lb
40-yard dash4.54s
Vertical38″
Broad jump127″

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game10.6
Week-to-week variation0.8
Boom rate23.8%
Bust rate28.6%
Games missed per season0.3
Injury historyAnkle
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score0.48

That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · CAR · 17 games

His best game was Week 6 against DAL — 33.9 PPR on 35 touches and a 23.8% target share, in a game that finished 30-27. His worst was Week 2 against ARI at 2.9, on 7 touches, final score 22-27. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 15.7; in the 7 decided by more, 8.5. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 13 points per game. He scored 12.72, 6.6% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 1.04 expected, a gap of -1.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1JAX10-263.623431208.8%34%
2ARI22-272.911106901.9%29%
3ATL30-010.8118103014.2%40%
4NE13-42411-293203.1%39%
5MIA27-2432.4342823206114.8%67%
6DAL30-2733.9455630183123.8%88%
7NYJ13-610.61217177906.5%46%
8BUF9-405.400085400%36%
9GB16-1328.1231125130215.8%72%
10NO7-1715.333101853113%79%
11ATL30-271557551945015.9%82%
12SF9-2011.44436638014.8%65%
13LA31-289.922211858010%42%
15NO17-2012.4115164915%60%
16TB23-208.34614929019.4%57%
17SEA10-279.33541259023.8%64%
18TB14-163222071006.7%53%

Production

Receptions39
Targets50
Receiving yards297
Carries236
Rushing yards1,076
Touchdowns7
Points per game12.72
Yards per target5.94
Catch rate78%
Yards per carry4.56

Role

Snap share56.06%
Target share11.03%
Air-yards share-3.15%
WOPR0.145
RACR-1.39

Efficiency

Average depth of target-1
Yards after catch per reception9
Yards before catch per reception-1.4
Total YAC350
Broken tackles3
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted89.7
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game-0.05
Rushing EPA per game-0.13

Scoring position

Red-zone targets6
Red-zone target share7.9%
End-zone target share3.3%
Red-zone carry share47.8%
Goal-line carry share57.1%
Expected receiving TDs1.04
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-1.04
Expected rushing TDs4.73

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game23 of 49
Yards per target23 of 49
Target share13 of 49
Air-yards share45 of 49

Who else ate

The offense threw it 515 times. He took 10.42% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Tetairoa McMillan25.42%
Xavier Legette13.33%
Rico Dowdle 10.42%
Jalen Coker8.96%
Chuba Hubbard8.13%
Tommy Tremble7.71%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Bryce Young165013.185.9411.72%
Andy Dalton105.40%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 13.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.38 in those and 15.65 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2024 · DAL · 16 games

His best game was Week 9 against ATL — 21.7 PPR on 18 touches and a 12.5% target share, in a game that finished 21-27. His worst was Week 1 against CLE at 4.2, on 9 touches, final score 33-17. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14.9; in the 7 decided by more, 9. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 14.2 points per game. He scored 12.36, 13% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1CLE33-174.211682603.2%44%
2NO19-449.94529730012.2%43%
3BAL25-288.63524832010%46%
4NYG20-1513.11115114613.8%45%
5PIT20-1719.42227208714.9%50%
6DET9-4710.55630525014%28%
9ATL21-2721.756321275112.5%71%
10PHI6-348.63331253010.3%52%
11HOU10-345.4256102809.3%49%
12WAS34-2610.83312198609.4%61%
13NYG27-2021.333112211218.3%70%
14CIN20-2715.112101813106.5%77%
15CAR30-1414.90002514900%74%
16TB26-248.13328132309.1%77%
17PHI7-419.81142310403.4%66%
18WAS19-2316.42312227219.1%67%

Production

Receptions39
Targets49
Receiving yards249
Carries235
Rushing yards1,079
Touchdowns5
Points per game12.36
Yards per target5.08
Catch rate79.59%
Yards per carry4.59

Role

Snap share57.5%
Target share7.88%
Air-yards share-0.36%
WOPR0.116
RACR0.731

Efficiency

Average depth of target-0.1
Yards after catch per reception7
Yards before catch per reception-0.6
Total YAC272
Broken tackles3
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted108.2
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game0.27
Rushing EPA per game-0.66

Scoring position

Red-zone targets7
Red-zone target share10.1%
End-zone target share5.1%
Red-zone carry share43.9%
Goal-line carry share33.3%
Expected receiving TDs1.67
Actual receiving TDs2
Receiving TD luck0.33
Expected rushing TDs3.39

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game24 of 46
Yards per target31 of 46
Target share29 of 46
Air-yards share19 of 46

Who else ate

The offense threw it 635 times. He took 7.92% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

CeeDee Lamb24.56%
Jake Ferguson13.89%
Jalen Tolbert12.76%
Brandin Cooks8.72%
Kavontae Turpin8.4%
Rico Dowdle 7.92%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Cooper Rush92612.864.087.64%
Dak Prescott62010.956.558.02%
Trey Lance1316.449.1%

Blowouts against close games

5 of his 16 games were blowouts, 22.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.84 in those and 14.94 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2023 · DAL · 16 games

His best game was Week 10 against NYG — 13.9 PPR on 12 touches and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 49-17. His worst was Week 16 against MIA at 0.4, on 4 touches, final score 20-22. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 4 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 1.4; in the 12 decided by more, 7.2. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 5.4 points per game. He scored 5.72, 7% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 2 against 0.82 expected, a gap of 1.2.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1NYG40-02.400062400%16%
2NYJ30-105.3111772602.7%21%
3ARI16-2813.6332542118.1%14%
4NE38-32.71183902.8%9%
5SF10-421.501051503.8%20%
6LAC20-171.200031200%16%
8LA43-204.522751805.9%35%
9PHI23-280.80002800%19%
10NYG49-1713.9000127910%28%
11CAR33-10422-382305%29%
12WAS45-109.6111531113.1%22%
13SEA41-353.211751502.5%18%
14PHI33-1312.2116124612.6%28%
15BUF10-313.22383409.4%26%
16MIA20-220.40202406.3%17%
18WAS38-10133454946010%36%

Production

Receptions17
Targets22
Receiving yards144
Carries89
Rushing yards361
Touchdowns4
Points per game5.72
Yards per target6.55
Catch rate77.27%
Yards per carry4.06

Role

Snap share22.13%
Target share3.89%
Air-yards share-0.18%
WOPR0.056
RACR-0.765

Efficiency

Average depth of target-0.5
Yards after catch per reception10
Yards before catch per reception-1.5
Total YAC170
Broken tackles2
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted124.1
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game0.35
Rushing EPA per game-0.33

Scoring position

Red-zone targets6
Red-zone target share5%
End-zone target share1.8%
Red-zone carry share14.4%
Goal-line carry share13.8%
Expected receiving TDs0.82
Actual receiving TDs2
Receiving TD luck1.18
Expected rushing TDs2.44

Who else ate

The offense threw it 614 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

CeeDee Lamb29.92%
Jake Ferguson16.86%
Brandin Cooks13.39%
Tony Pollard11.07%
Michael Gallup9.42%
Jalen Tolbert5.95%

Blowouts against close games

11 of his 16 games were blowouts, 79% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.57 in those and 1.4 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2022 · DAL · 2 games

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1TB3-1900000000%0%
2CIN20-1700000000%2%

Production

Receptions0
Targets0
Receiving yards0
Carries0
Rushing yards0
Touchdowns0
Points per game0

Role

Snap share1%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%
WOPR0
RACR0

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game0

Who else ate

The offense threw it 556 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

CeeDee Lamb28.62%
Dalton Schultz16.33%
Noah Brown13.58%
Michael Gallup13.58%
Tony Pollard10.09%
Ezekiel Elliott4.22%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Dak Prescott1000%
Cooper Rush1000%

2020 · DAL · 5 games

His best game was Week 6 against ARI — 1.3 PPR on 3 touches and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 10-38. His worst was Week 17 against NYG at 0, on 0 touches, final score 19-23. Across 5 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 5 times.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 2.3 points per game. He scored 0.48, 46.7% below it. The engine classified the season as low_volume.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
6ARI10-381.300031300%3%
9PIT19-2400000000%0%
15SF41-331.100041100%14%
16PHI37-1700000000%1%
17NYG19-2300000000%1%

Production

Receptions0
Targets0
Receiving yards0
Carries7
Rushing yards24
Touchdowns0
Points per game0.48
Yards per carry3.43

Role

Snap share3.8%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%
WOPR0
RACR0

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game-0.5

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share1.4%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0.05

Who else ate

The offense threw it 638 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Amari Cooper21.17%
CeeDee Lamb18.08%
Michael Gallup17.1%
Dalton Schultz14.5%
Ezekiel Elliott11.56%
Tony Pollard6.51%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Andy Dalton400.60%
Garrett Gilbert1000%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 5 games were blowouts, 54.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 0.65 in those and 0.37 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

Ask the Coach about Rico Dowdle →
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