Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 1.84 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 282.5, usage worth 2.6.
29 years old · 7 seasons of experience · 2019 draft class
| SLEEPER | 395 |
| ESPN | 170 |
| FFA | 553 |
| Goes around | Round 24, pick 7 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | TE95 |
| ADP standard deviation | 159.1 picks |
Our board has him at 7.2 points, 0.5 per game — 3 catches, 30 yards, 0.2 TDs. That is TE5, 358 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 0.2 points per game to a ceiling of 1.3, with the median at 0.5. Boom rate 99%, bust rate 62%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 282.5 on consensus and our board has him 358. We rank him 75.5 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
Houston Texans returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing rb1. CJ Stroud at quarterback, Demeco Ryans as head coach, Nick Caley calling it. The offense projects to 34 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 27.5 rushes.
In: Nathaniel Dell (wr3), Lewis Bond (wr7), David Montgomery (rb1), Noah Whittington (rb4), Foster Moreau (te2). Out: Nick Chubb (rb2), Cade Stover (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 5.7%, with a bear case of 4% and a bull case of 8.2% and a full range of 1.6% to 10.7%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Nico Collins | 21.3% |
| Dalton Schultz | 14% |
| Jayden Higgins | 11.5% |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 8.6% |
| Jaylin Noel | 7.1% |
| Nathaniel Dell | 6.2% |
What the offense looks like: If this offense could produce at a higher level than 2025, this will be an offense you want to have pieces of. David Montgomery COULD be a very interesting high end RB2 as long as RB Woody Marks does not eat into his PT too much. Houston also has arguably the best defense in the entire NFL. they will keep them in every game & force turnovers to get this offense the ball back.
Key additions: Texans signed starting LG Wyatt Teller & starting RT Braden Smith this offseason. Also drafted C Keylan Rutledge in the 1st round. all 3 upgrades to last year. Should help protect CJ Stroud & HOPEFULLY GET A RUN GAME GOING IN HOUSTON. Traded for Lions RB David Montgomery. Joe mixon saw great success in 2024 & Montgomery COULD see a high degree of success too. Drafted WR Lewis Bond as well who does not have immediate upside.
Notes: Nico Collins remains a high producing dynasty WR when CJ Stroud plays well. Texans have to improve O line play for offense to provide large fantasy relevance. Traded for David Montgomery from the Lions & He will operate as RB1 with Woody Marks expected to also work in. CJ Stroud has struggled since his rookie season & is a mid range QB2 most weeks in fantasy. Texans do expect to extend him long term despite poor play. Jayden Higgins is an interesting year 2 breakout candidate but Tank Dell also returns in 2026 (We will see if his knee still works).
How the volume number was reached: Same QB CJ Stroud returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (34.2 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 34 att/g.
25 historical comps for TEs age ~28, prior share 9.6%, team change, OC continuity. Distribution: median 6.8%, p25-p75 [3.7%, 10.4%], tails [0.0%, 14.4%]. Closest comps: Dan Arnold 2020→2021 (ARI→CAR: 9.3%→14.9%); Mike Gesicki 2023→2024 (NE→CIN: 10.9%→13.2%); Jordan Akins 2024→2025 (CLE: 10.3%→0.0%). Adjustment: -6% from role_decline (real opportunity collapse)
arrival self-anchored 21% to own 9.6% role (1yr)
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: HOU rates 22.5 against a league average of 23, 0.5 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +3.2 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | +6.5 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | +3.8 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -6.2 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -36.3% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, TEs recover only 30% of the time (keep falling 70%).
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durham Smythe | 2024 | 1 | 84% | +26.5% |
| Will Dissly | 2023 | 3.1 | 76% | +219.4% |
| Ian Thomas | 2023 | 1.3 | 68% | -1% |
| Harrison Bryant | 2024 | 2.9 | 65% | +48.9% |
| Austin Hooper | 2023 | 3 | 64% | +46.1% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 4 gained value, 0 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2019, round 4, pick 137 by OAK |
| College | LSU |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′4″ |
| Weight | 253 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.66s |
| Vertical | 36.5″ |
| Broad jump | 121″ |
| 3-cone | 7.16s |
| Shuttle | 4.11s |
| Career PPR per game | 5.1 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.9 |
| Boom rate | 14.5% |
| Bust rate | 29.1% |
| Games missed per season | 0.3 |
| Injury history | Knee, Ankle |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.04 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 10 against CAR — 3.6 PPR on 3 targets and a 11.5% target share, in a game that finished 17-7. His worst was Week 12 against ATL at 0, on 1 targets, final score 10-24. Across 7 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 3 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 2.6; in the 4 decided by more, 1.3. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 2.6 points per game. He scored 1.84, 29.1% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | NE | 19-25 | 1.9 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3.8% | 36% |
| 8 | TB | 3-23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | 18% |
| 10 | CAR | 17-7 | 3.6 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 11.5% | 62% |
| 12 | ATL | 10-24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.3% | 29% |
| 13 | MIA | 17-21 | 3.3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 5.9% | 38% |
| 14 | TB | 24-20 | 2.6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 5% | 45% |
| 16 | NYJ | 29-6 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2.1% | 28% |
| Receptions | 7 |
| Targets | 10 |
| Receiving yards | 59 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 1.84 |
| Yards per target | 5.9 |
| Catch rate | 70% |
| Snap share | 36.57% |
| Target share | 4.66% |
| Air-yards share | 1.04% |
| WOPR | 0.079 |
| RACR | 1.657 |
| Average depth of target | 1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 2.1 |
| Total YAC | 44 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.2% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 45.4 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.53 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 2% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.15 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.15 |
The offense threw it 591 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Chris Olave | 27.71% |
| Juwan Johnson | 18.12% |
| Rashid Shaheed | 11.72% |
| Alvin Kamara | 6.93% |
| Devaughn Vele | 6.93% |
| Brandin Cooks | 4.44% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | 6 | 9 | 1.83 | 5.56 | 4.8% |
| Spencer Rattler | 1 | 1 | 1.9 | 9 | 3.8% |
2 of his 7 games were blowouts, 11.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 0.75 in those and 2.6 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 1 against CAR — 14.3 PPR on 4 targets and a 16.7% target share, in a game that finished 47-10. His worst was Week 10 against ATL at 0, on 2 targets, final score 20-17. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.6; in the 9 decided by more, 7.1. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 5.1 points per game. He scored 6.46, 35.7% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 4 against 2.48 expected, a gap of 1.5.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | 47-10 | 14.3 | 4 | 4 | 43 | 1 | 16.7% | 77% |
| 2 | DAL | 44-19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 80% |
| 3 | PHI | 12-15 | 1.2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8.7% | 71% |
| 5 | KC | 13-26 | 9.3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 6.3% | 53% |
| 6 | TB | 27-51 | 7.4 | 2 | 2 | 54 | 0 | 5.3% | 49% |
| 7 | DEN | 10-33 | 5.8 | 2 | 2 | 38 | 0 | 5.1% | 60% |
| 8 | LAC | 8-26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.6% | 78% |
| 9 | CAR | 22-23 | 8.7 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 7.1% | 80% |
| 10 | ATL | 20-17 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9.5% | 83% |
| 11 | CLE | 35-14 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 50 | 0 | 14.3% | 85% |
| 13 | LA | 14-21 | 2.6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 11.8% | 66% |
| 14 | NYG | 14-11 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 40 | 0 | 6.5% | 72% |
| 15 | WAS | 19-20 | 13.9 | 4 | 4 | 39 | 1 | 13.8% | 64% |
| 16 | GB | 0-34 | 5.3 | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 10.7% | 48% |
| 17 | LV | 10-25 | 13.7 | 3 | 5 | 47 | 1 | 14.7% | 73% |
| 18 | TB | 19-27 | 7.1 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 10.3% | 79% |
| Receptions | 32 |
| Targets | 43 |
| Receiving yards | 413 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 6.46 |
| Yards per target | 9.6 |
| Catch rate | 74.42% |
| Snap share | 69.88% |
| Target share | 8.96% |
| Air-yards share | 9.87% |
| WOPR | 0.204 |
| RACR | 1.098 |
| Average depth of target | 9.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8 |
| Total YAC | 158 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 133.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.24 |
| Red-zone targets | 9 |
| Red-zone target share | 20.9% |
| End-zone target share | 35.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.48 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.52 |
The offense threw it 551 times. He took 8.38% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Alvin Kamara | 17.35% |
| Juwan Johnson | 12.87% |
| Chris Olave | 8.58% |
| Foster Moreau ← | 8.38% |
| Rashid Shaheed | 7.99% |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 6.82% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 9 | 22 | 5.57 | 7.77 | 8.99% |
| Spencer Rattler | 7 | 21 | 7.6 | 11.52 | 8.93% |
7 of his 16 games were blowouts, 39.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.83 in those and 5.64 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 5 against NE — 7.6 PPR on 1 targets and a 4% target share, in a game that finished 34-0. His worst was Week 12 against ATL at 0, on 0 targets, final score 15-24. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 4; in the 6 decided by more, 3.1. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 3.9 points per game. He scored 3.56, 7.2% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CAR | 20-17 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 5.9% | 47% |
| 5 | NE | 34-0 | 7.6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 4% | 67% |
| 6 | HOU | 13-20 | 7.3 | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 8.7% | 48% |
| 7 | JAX | 24-31 | 6.3 | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 7.5% | 50% |
| 9 | CHI | 24-17 | 3.3 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 3.1% | 49% |
| 10 | MIN | 19-27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 31% |
| 12 | ATL | 15-24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 43% |
| 13 | DET | 28-33 | 4.8 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 6.9% | 60% |
| 14 | CAR | 28-6 | 2.8 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 9.1% | 63% |
| 15 | NYG | 24-6 | 4.3 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 17.9% | 73% |
| 16 | LA | 22-30 | 2.3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 5% | 40% |
| 17 | TB | 23-13 | 2.3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 2.9% | 54% |
| 18 | ATL | 48-17 | 1.3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4% | 60% |
| Receptions | 21 |
| Targets | 25 |
| Receiving yards | 193 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 3.56 |
| Yards per target | 7.72 |
| Catch rate | 84% |
| Snap share | 52.69% |
| Target share | 5.77% |
| Air-yards share | 3.48% |
| WOPR | 0.112 |
| RACR | 1.803 |
| Average depth of target | 4.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 4.6 |
| Total YAC | 96 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 112.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.65 |
| Red-zone targets | 4 |
| Red-zone target share | 5.9% |
| End-zone target share | 3.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.97 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.03 |
The offense threw it 606 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Chris Olave | 23.96% |
| Alvin Kamara | 14.93% |
| Rashid Shaheed | 13.02% |
| Michael Thomas | 11.11% |
| Juwan Johnson | 10.24% |
| Taysom Hill | 6.94% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 12 | 25 | 3.86 | 7.72 | 6.25% |
| Jameis Winston | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | 0% |
4 of his 13 games were blowouts, 34.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4 in those and 4 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 10 against IND — 13.3 PPR on 4 targets and a 10.5% target share, in a game that finished 20-25. His worst was Week 14 against LA at 0, on 1 targets, final score 16-17. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.4; in the 3 decided by more, 5.6. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 6.8 points per game. He scored 6.23, 7.9% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | ARI | 23-29 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 10.3% | 61% |
| 3 | TEN | 22-24 | 7.4 | 3 | 4 | 44 | 0 | 9.8% | 50% |
| 7 | HOU | 38-20 | 5.8 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 19.2% | 96% |
| 8 | NO | 0-24 | 9.1 | 6 | 9 | 31 | 0 | 23.1% | 100% |
| 9 | JAX | 20-27 | 6.4 | 2 | 5 | 42 | 0 | 13.9% | 97% |
| 10 | IND | 20-25 | 13.3 | 3 | 4 | 43 | 1 | 10.5% | 96% |
| 11 | DEN | 22-16 | 4.3 | 1 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 8.1% | 100% |
| 12 | SEA | 40-34 | 12.3 | 3 | 7 | 33 | 1 | 19.4% | 100% |
| 13 | LAC | 27-20 | 4.2 | 1 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 11.1% | 90% |
| 14 | LA | 16-17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5.3% | 100% |
| 15 | NE | 30-24 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 6.3% | 56% |
| 16 | PIT | 10-13 | 3.9 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 10% | 68% |
| 17 | SF | 34-37 | 8.5 | 3 | 3 | 55 | 0 | 9.4% | 79% |
| 18 | KC | 13-31 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 2.9% | 40% |
| Receptions | 33 |
| Targets | 54 |
| Receiving yards | 420 |
| Rushing yards | 2 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 6.23 |
| Yards per target | 7.78 |
| Catch rate | 61.11% |
| Snap share | 80.93% |
| Target share | 11.38% |
| Air-yards share | 10.37% |
| WOPR | 0.242 |
| RACR | 1.286 |
| Average depth of target | 8.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 5.5 |
| Total YAC | 237 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 82.3 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.6 |
| Red-zone targets | 5 |
| Red-zone target share | 7% |
| End-zone target share | 13.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.46 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.54 |
The offense threw it 586 times. He took 9.68% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Davante Adams | 32.26% |
| Mack Hollins | 16.85% |
| Josh Jacobs | 11.47% |
| Foster Moreau ← | 9.68% |
| Hunter Renfrow | 8.96% |
| Darren Waller | 7.71% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 12 | 50 | 6.39 | 7.1 | 12.25% |
| Jarrett Stidham | 2 | 4 | 5.25 | 16.25 | 6.15% |
3 of his 14 games were blowouts, 19.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.63 in those and 6.39 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 7 against PHI — 18 PPR on 6 targets and a 17.6% target share, in a game that finished 33-22. His worst was Week 10 against KC at 0, on 0 targets, final score 14-41. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.1; in the 7 decided by more, 6.4. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 6.3 points per game. He scored 5.69, 4% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 3 against 1.42 expected, a gap of 1.6.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | PIT | 26-17 | 11.4 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 1 | 8.1% | 58% |
| 3 | MIA | 31-28 | 1.8 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 5% | 57% |
| 5 | CHI | 9-20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 22% |
| 6 | DEN | 34-24 | 2.1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 4% | 45% |
| 7 | PHI | 33-22 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 60 | 1 | 17.6% | 100% |
| 9 | NYG | 16-23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 32% |
| 10 | KC | 14-41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 39% |
| 11 | CIN | 13-32 | 8.9 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 1 | 8% | 36% |
| 12 | DAL | 36-33 | 1.3 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 13.2% | 89% |
| 13 | WAS | 15-17 | 4.4 | 1 | 3 | 34 | 0 | 8.3% | 85% |
| 14 | KC | 9-48 | 4.3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 14% | 98% |
| 15 | CLE | 16-14 | 13.5 | 7 | 9 | 65 | 0 | 25% | 100% |
| 16 | DEN | 17-13 | 10.7 | 4 | 4 | 67 | 0 | 16% | 94% |
| 17 | IND | 23-20 | 1.9 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3.1% | 100% |
| 18 | LAC | 35-32 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 50 | 0 | 6.1% | 61% |
| Receptions | 30 |
| Targets | 44 |
| Receiving yards | 373 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 5.69 |
| Yards per target | 8.48 |
| Catch rate | 68.18% |
| Snap share | 67.73% |
| Target share | 8.56% |
| Air-yards share | 8.73% |
| WOPR | 0.189 |
| RACR | 1.285 |
| Average depth of target | 7.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.1 |
| Total YAC | 189 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 98 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.06 |
| Red-zone targets | 8 |
| Red-zone target share | 8.2% |
| End-zone target share | 15.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.42 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.58 |
The offense threw it 628 times. He took 7.45% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Hunter Renfrow | 21.66% |
| Darren Waller | 15.74% |
| Zay Jones | 11.84% |
| Josh Jacobs | 10.83% |
| Bryan Edwards | 9.98% |
| Foster Moreau ← | 7.45% |
3 of his 15 games were blowouts, 15.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.4 in those and 5.08 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 14 against IND — 11.7 PPR on 2 targets and a 4.4% target share, in a game that finished 27-44. His worst was Week 16 against MIA at 0, on 0 targets, final score 25-26. Across 8 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 4 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 1.7; in the 4 decided by more, 6.6. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 2.3 points per game. He scored 4.13, 107.5% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | NO | 34-24 | 4.1 | 1 | 1 | 31 | 0 | 2.9% | 40% |
| 3 | NE | 20-36 | 10.5 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 1 | 6.3% | 25% |
| 4 | BUF | 23-30 | 1.8 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2.3% | 14% |
| 8 | CLE | 16-6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.5% | 43% |
| 14 | IND | 27-44 | 11.7 | 1 | 2 | 47 | 1 | 4.4% | 19% |
| 15 | LAC | 27-30 | 3.2 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 3.3% | 26% |
| 16 | MIA | 25-26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 3% |
| 17 | DEN | 32-31 | 1.7 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2.9% | 20% |
| Receptions | 7 |
| Targets | 9 |
| Receiving yards | 140 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 4.13 |
| Yards per target | 15.56 |
| Catch rate | 77.78% |
| Snap share | 23.75% |
| Target share | 3.32% |
| Air-yards share | 5.45% |
| WOPR | 0.088 |
| RACR | 0.935 |
| Average depth of target | 12.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 12.7 |
| Total YAC | 51 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 158.3 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.27 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 1.4% |
| End-zone target share | 3.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.51 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.49 |
The offense threw it 551 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Darren Waller | 28.66% |
| Nelson Agholor | 16.21% |
| Hunter Renfrow | 15.22% |
| Josh Jacobs | 8.89% |
| Henry Ruggs | 8.5% |
| Jalen Richard | 4.55% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 7 | 8 | 4.26 | 14.75 | 3.33% |
| Marcus Mariota | 1 | 1 | 3.2 | 22 | 3.3% |
1 of his 8 games were blowouts, 35.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11.7 in those and 1.68 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
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