Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 17.26 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 82.2, usage worth 16.1.
23 years old · 1 season of experience · 2025 draft class
| SLEEPER | 81.2 |
| ESPN | 75.8 |
| YAHOO | 82.4 |
| UNDERDOG | 100.7 |
| CBS | 89.5 |
| FFA | 84 |
| Goes around | Round 7, pick 10 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | QB9 |
| Bye week | 8 |
| ADP standard deviation | 5.6 picks |
Our board has him at 334.2 points, 19.9 per game — 3,944 passing yards, 23.9 passing TDs, 544 rushing yards. That is QB3, 83 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 15.9 points per game to a ceiling of 26.8, with the median at 19.9. Boom rate 35%, bust rate 20%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 82.2 on consensus and our board has him 83. Those agree, so there is no market disagreement to exploit. The question is whether you want the profile, not whether it is mispriced.
excellent rookie debut as a passer, specifically singled out (given the era of QB play the team just went through) as clearly the best QB play they've gotten in a long time — offense visibly fell apart on tape whenever he left the field. The real swing area: a tendency to take unnecessary extra hits fighting for extra yards rather than sliding, which the staff has reportedly made an explicit offseason emphasis specifically because they don't want to risk losing him over marginal yardage.
buy · medium conviction · 2026-08New York Giants returns 2 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, te1, hc, oc. Jaxson Dart at quarterback, Jim Harbaugh as head coach, Matt Nagy calling it. The offense projects to 30.3 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 27.7 rushes.
In: Darnell Mooney (wr2), Malachi Fields (wr4), Calvin Austin III (wr5), Isaiah Likely (te1). Out: Jaxon Dart (qb), Russell Wilson (qb), Wan'Dale Robinson (wr2), Gunner Olszewski (wr4), Daniel Bellinger (te2).
The projected target split across the offense:
| Malik Nabers | 25.9% |
| Darius Slayton | 11.2% |
| Darnell Mooney | 10.4% |
| Malachi Fields | 8.6% |
| Theo Johnson | 8.2% |
| Cam Skattebo | 7.5% |
What the offense looks like: NY still reamins a question mark but there is a lot of potential in this offense if Jaxson Dart turns into the franchise QB. He has a strong arm, is mobile, and plays with a certain type of swagger not all QBs play with. Despite what Ravens fans say, bringing Harbaugh & Nagy into NY is a very good thing. A future HOF coach that is putting his reputation on the line for this team to succeed. Harbaugh has mainly focused on the defense so far, which could imply he thinks the offense is in a good spot, but we will have to see.
Key additions: Darnell Mooney WR from ATL, Calvin Austin III WR from Steelers, Drafted WR Malachi Fields 3rd round, signed TE Isaiah Likely in free agency, New Coach Jim Harbaugh & new OC Matt Nagy.
Key departures: Russell Wilson left to free agency. Won'Dale Robinson left in free agency to the Tennessee Titans (opens up significant amount of targets)
Notes: Giants fired Daboll & brought in Harbaugh. Harbaugh should revamp offense. Brought it Isaiah Likely from Baltimore who seriously hurts Theo Johnson dynasty value (likely should be good). NY did not draft RB & Skattebo will be the starter week 1 of 2026 unless they add someone. He could have a monster season with his Jaxson Dart connection growing. Jaxson Dart gets to play with Malik Nabers for the first time & connection should be electric. Darnell Mooney is a great signing & is on a 1 year prove it deal in NY. If Dart play continues, Mooney will have value.
How the volume number was reached: New QB Jaxson Dart, avg 24.2 att/g over 2025; Regressed 65% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30.2 att/g; New OC Matt Nagy — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Jim Harbaugh.
Base case 205.6 PPR points, with a bear case of 36.3 and a bull case of 420.9, and a comp mean of 211.7. The model puts 50% probability on him beating this and 50% on falling short. Drawn from 20 comparable quarterback seasons.
| Comparable season | What he actually scored | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields 2023 | 119.1 | 0.6 |
| Drake Maye 2024 | 416.9 | 0.7 |
| Lamar Jackson 2022 | 385.9 | 0.7 |
| Tua Tagovailoa 2020 | 180.9 | 0.8 |
| Tyrod Taylor 2017 | 41.4 | 0.8 |
Cross-check against the dynasty market: his production ranks in the 31th percentile and his value in the 79th, which the engine reads as well above production. Players with a similar production-against-value gap saw dynasty value move -8.7% over the following year, across 14 cases — a dynasty signal, not a 2026 scoring one.
Offensive environment: NYG rates 21.8 against a league average of 23, 1.1 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +4.4 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | +8.3 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | +5.7 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +7.9 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Jaxson Dart study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +37.4% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, QBs crash the following year 52% of the time (hold 48%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 52% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.8 elite seasons and 3.1 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 2024 | 15 | 61% | +24.1% |
| Kyler Murray | 2021 | 21.5 | 59% | -17.6% |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2021 | 11.7 | 57% | +39.1% |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2023 | 16.4 | 55% | 0% |
| Joe Burrow | 2020 | 17.4 | 55% | +25.9% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 1 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2025, round 1, pick 25 by NYG |
| College | Mississippi |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′2″ |
| Weight | 223 lb |
His best game was Week 7 against DEN — 28.42 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 32-33. His worst was Week 2 against DAL at -0.3, on 0 targets, final score 37-40. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 7 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 16.1; in the 8 decided by more, 18.1. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 16.1 points per game. He scored 17.26, 7.4% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | DAL | 37-40 | -0.3 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 0% | 4% |
| 3 | KC | 9-22 | 0.3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 5% |
| 4 | LAC | 21-18 | 19.84 | 0 | 10 | 54 | 2 | 0% | 97% |
| 5 | NO | 14-26 | 15.58 | 0 | 7 | 55 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | PHI | 34-17 | 23.6 | 0 | 13 | 58 | 2 | 0% | 97% |
| 7 | DEN | 32-33 | 28.42 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | PHI | 20-38 | 19.42 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | SF | 24-34 | 27.24 | 0 | 8 | 56 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | CHI | 20-24 | 26.28 | 0 | 6 | 66 | 2 | 0% | 71% |
| 13 | NE | 15-33 | 13.56 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | WAS | 21-29 | 22.14 | 0 | 9 | 63 | 2 | 0% | 97% |
| 16 | MIN | 13-16 | 0.02 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | LV | 34-10 | 25.08 | 0 | 9 | 48 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 18 | DAL | 34-17 | 20.4 | 0 | 5 | 32 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| Carries | 86 |
| Rushing yards | 487 |
| Touchdowns | 24 |
| Points per game | 17.26 |
| Yards per carry | 5.66 |
| Snap share | 83.64% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 2.72 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 22.7% |
| Goal-line carry share | 23.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 3.89 |
The offense threw it 526 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 27.89% |
| Theo Johnson | 14.74% |
| Darius Slayton | 12.55% |
| Tyrone Tracy | 9.56% |
| Malik Nabers | 6.97% |
| Cam Skattebo | 6.37% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Dart | 12 | 0 | 20.13 | — | 0% |
| Russell Wilson | 2 | 0 | 0 | — | 0% |
5 of his 14 games were blowouts, 42.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 20.41 in those and 16.07 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Jaxson Dart →