Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 12.54 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 196.9, usage worth 14.3.
23 years old · 2 seasons of experience · 2024 draft class
| SLEEPER | 224.2 |
| ESPN | 169.6 |
| UNDERDOG | 215.9 |
| FFA | 527 |
| Goes around | Round 17, pick 5 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | QB68 |
| ADP standard deviation | 38.6 picks |
Minnesota Vikings returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1. Kyler Murray at quarterback, Kevin O'Connell as head coach, Wes Phillips calling it. The offense projects to 32.6 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 25 rushes.
In: Kyler Murray (qb), Dontae Fleming (wr5), Dillon Bell (wr7), Desmond Claiborne (rb3). Out: Carson Wentz (qb), Jalen Nailor (wr3), Adam Thielen (wr4).
The projected target split across the offense:
| Justin Jefferson | 26.5% |
| Jordan Addison | 18.3% |
| TJ Hockenson | 16.6% |
| Aaron Jones | 9.8% |
| Tai Felton | 7.7% |
| Jordan Mason | 5.6% |
What the offense looks like: Jefferson and Addison have all the talent in the world they & KOC is an elite coach, but this team needs to feed them. This RB room struggled last year. Difficult to say if Aaron Jones & Jordan mason regressed or if teams just focused on stopping the run to force JJ McCarthy to throw them another Pick 6. Either way, running game has to get established in 2026. Likely a committee as Aaron Jones was expected to be cut but took a pay cut to come back.
Key additions: Kyler Murray QB from Cardinals (former 1st overall pick).
Key departures: Jalen Nailor WR3 left to Raiders in free agency. Pretty solid loss that opens up a decent target
Notes: Jefferson dynasty cornerstone regardless of QB. Vikings sign Kyler Murray from Cardinals who is looking to turn around career. Kyler will compete with McCarthy for QB1 spot but JJ Nine McCarthy is BOOTY CHEEKS, so Kyler will start & could elevate offense a lot. Jefferson long term value there regardless of QB, Addison is great WR but volume still isnt there, interesting buy if can get him for cheap. Aaron Jones may phase out and took a pay cut to stay. Mason is mid. Rookie RB Claiborne COULD build out a role if he can beat out Mason. Hockenson should be better than last year but his play has declined a lot.
How the volume number was reached: New QB Kyler Murray, avg 32 att/g over 2025,2024; Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.6 att/g.
Base case 204.1 PPR points, with a bear case of 29.5 and a bull case of 341.9, and a comp mean of 203.2. The model puts 25% probability on him beating this and 75% on falling short. Drawn from 20 comparable quarterback seasons.
| Comparable season | What he actually scored | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray 2024 | 77.8 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray 2019 | 378.7 | 0.2 |
| Dak Prescott 2018 | 337.8 | 0.3 |
| Blake Bortles 2017 | 173.2 | 0.5 |
| Jameis Winston 2015 | 256.1 | 0.5 |
Cross-check against the dynasty market: his production ranks in the 28th percentile and his value in the 41th, which the engine reads as above production. Players with a similar production-against-value gap saw dynasty value move -19.6% over the following year, across 24 cases — a dynasty signal, not a 2026 scoring one.
Offensive environment: MIN rates 22.2 against a league average of 23, 0.8 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +2.7 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | +3.1 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | +3.6 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +12.3 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5 | Max Brosmer | +-0.6 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -53.6% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, QBs recover only 30% of the time (keep falling 70%).
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.8 elite seasons and 3.1 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2020 | 13.5 | 80% | -1% |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2021 | 13.9 | 78% | +18.6% |
| Kenny Pickett | 2022 | 11.5 | 76% | -27.7% |
| Daniel Jones | 2020 | 12.9 | 76% | -9.7% |
| Bryce Young | 2024 | 13.9 | 74% | -0.9% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 2 lost it and 2 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2024, round 1, pick 10 by MIN |
| College | Michigan |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Height | 6′3″ |
| Weight | 219 lb |
| 3-cone | 6.82s |
| Shuttle | 4.23s |
His best game was Week 15 against DAL — 23.5 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 34-26. His worst was Week 12 against GB at 0.48, on 0 targets, final score 6-23. Across 10 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 15.6; in the 4 decided by more, 7.9. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 14.3 points per game. He scored 12.54, 12.1% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 27-24 | 22.22 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | ATL | 6-22 | 2.82 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | DET | 27-24 | 18.92 | 0 | 9 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | BAL | 19-27 | 14.72 | 0 | 5 | 48 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | CHI | 17-19 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | GB | 6-23 | 0.48 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 14 | WAS | 31-0 | 20.42 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | DAL | 34-26 | 23.5 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | NYG | 16-13 | 8.32 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 0% | 52% |
| 18 | GB | 16-3 | 7.98 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 64% |
| Carries | 37 |
| Rushing yards | 181 |
| Touchdowns | 15 |
| Points per game | 12.54 |
| Yards per carry | 4.89 |
| Snap share | 91.6% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.68 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 10.5% |
| Goal-line carry share | 6.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.89 |
The offense threw it 484 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Justin Jefferson | 30.26% |
| Jordan Addison | 16.95% |
| T.J. Hockenson | 14.16% |
| Jalen Nailor | 11.37% |
| Aaron Jones | 8.8% |
| Josh Oliver | 4.08% |
2 of his 10 games were blowouts, 16.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.45 in those and 15.61 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
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