QB · NYG · GWTTKB

Russell Wilson — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 8.31 points per game in 2025, usage worth 11.6.

37 years old · 14 seasons of experience · 2012 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.

The offense he plays in, 2026

New York Giants returns 2 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, te1, hc, oc. Jaxson Dart at quarterback, Jim Harbaugh as head coach, Matt Nagy calling it. The offense projects to 30.3 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 27.7 rushes.

In: Darnell Mooney (wr2), Malachi Fields (wr4), Calvin Austin III (wr5), Isaiah Likely (te1). Out: Jaxon Dart (qb), Russell Wilson (qb), Wan'Dale Robinson (wr2), Gunner Olszewski (wr4), Daniel Bellinger (te2).

The projected target split across the offense:

Malik Nabers25.9%
Darius Slayton11.2%
Darnell Mooney10.4%
Malachi Fields8.6%
Theo Johnson8.2%
Cam Skattebo7.5%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

What the offense looks like: NY still reamins a question mark but there is a lot of potential in this offense if Jaxson Dart turns into the franchise QB. He has a strong arm, is mobile, and plays with a certain type of swagger not all QBs play with. Despite what Ravens fans say, bringing Harbaugh & Nagy into NY is a very good thing. A future HOF coach that is putting his reputation on the line for this team to succeed. Harbaugh has mainly focused on the defense so far, which could imply he thinks the offense is in a good spot, but we will have to see.

Key additions: Darnell Mooney WR from ATL, Calvin Austin III WR from Steelers, Drafted WR Malachi Fields 3rd round, signed TE Isaiah Likely in free agency, New Coach Jim Harbaugh & new OC Matt Nagy.

Key departures: Russell Wilson left to free agency. Won'Dale Robinson left in free agency to the Tennessee Titans (opens up significant amount of targets)

Notes: Giants fired Daboll & brought in Harbaugh. Harbaugh should revamp offense. Brought it Isaiah Likely from Baltimore who seriously hurts Theo Johnson dynasty value (likely should be good). NY did not draft RB & Skattebo will be the starter week 1 of 2026 unless they add someone. He could have a monster season with his Jaxson Dart connection growing. Jaxson Dart gets to play with Malik Nabers for the first time & connection should be electric. Darnell Mooney is a great signing & is on a 1 year prove it deal in NY. If Dart play continues, Mooney will have value.

How the volume number was reached: New QB Jaxson Dart, avg 24.2 att/g over 2025; Regressed 65% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30.2 att/g; New OC Matt Nagy — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Jim Harbaugh.

How the quarterback projection was built

Base case 205.6 PPR points, with a bear case of 36.3 and a bull case of 420.9, and a comp mean of 211.7. The model puts 50% probability on him beating this and 50% on falling short. Drawn from 20 comparable quarterback seasons.

Comparable seasonWhat he actually scoredDistance
Justin Fields 2023119.10.6
Drake Maye 2024416.90.7
Lamar Jackson 2022385.90.7
Tua Tagovailoa 2020180.90.8
Tyrod Taylor 201741.40.8

Cross-check against the dynasty market: his production ranks in the 31th percentile and his value in the 79th, which the engine reads as well above production. Players with a similar production-against-value gap saw dynasty value move -8.7% over the following year, across 14 cases — a dynasty signal, not a 2026 scoring one.

Offensive environment: NYG rates 21.8 against a league average of 23, 1.1 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season+4.4 · easier
Weeks 1–6+8.3 · easier
Weeks 12–17+5.7 · easier
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)+7.9 · easier

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved -71.6% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, QBs recover only 30% of the time (keep falling 70%).

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.8 elite seasons and 3.1 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Gardner Minshew20249.655%-20.8%
Mac Jones20249.651%+83.9%
Gardner Minshew202312.350%-9.5%
Drew Lock202411.449%-12.4%
Derek Carr202415.148%-53.1%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 4 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

02,0004,0006,0008,00010,000202120222023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2020-06 to 2026-07. Down 93% across the series, peaking at 9,323.

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Height5′11″
Weight204 lb
40-yard dash4.53s
Vertical34″
Broad jump118″
3-cone6.97s
Shuttle4.09s

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game16
Week-to-week variation0.4
Boom rate13.6%
Bust rate15.3%
Games missed per season0.3
Injury historyright Finger, Concussion

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · NYG · 6 games

His best game was Week 2 against DAL — 30.3 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 37-40. His worst was Week 6 against PHI at 0, on 0 targets, final score 34-17. Across 6 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 3 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11.2; in the 3 decided by more, 5.4. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 11.6 points per game. He scored 8.31, 28.6% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1WAS6-2111.12084400%100%
2DAL37-4030.3032330%96%
3KC9-225.1052700%95%
4LAC21-180.3200000%3%
6PHI34-17000000%3%
10CHI20-243021200%29%

Production

Carries18
Rushing yards106
Touchdowns3
Points per game8.31
Yards per carry5.89

Role

Snap share54.33%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game-0.21

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share7.2%
Goal-line carry share3.3%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0.85

Who else ate

The offense threw it 526 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Wan'Dale Robinson27.89%
Theo Johnson14.74%
Darius Slayton12.55%
Tyrone Tracy9.56%
Malik Nabers6.97%
Cam Skattebo6.37%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Russell Wilson3015.510%
Jaxson Dart301.110%

Blowouts against close games

1 of his 6 games were blowouts, 0% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 0 in those and 11.21 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2024 · PIT · 11 games

His best game was Week 13 against CIN — 26.86 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 44-38. His worst was Week 11 against BAL at 6.3, on 0 targets, final score 18-16. Across 11 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 15.1; in the 5 decided by more, 16.5. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 16.6 points per game. He scored 15.71, 3.5% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
7NYJ37-1524.8603330%100%
8NYG26-1813.8203710%100%
10WAS28-2718.104330%100%
11BAL18-166.304100%96%
12CLE19-2413.8031010%90%
13CIN44-3826.8603330%97%
14CLE27-1416.02061720%100%
15PHI13-278.42041310%98%
16BAL17-3415.38032720%100%
17KC10-2917.7065510%100%
18CIN17-1911.52041610%100%

Production

Carries43
Rushing yards155
Touchdowns18
Points per game15.71
Yards per carry3.6

Role

Snap share98.27%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game-0.69

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share7.7%
Goal-line carry share11.5%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs1.62

Who else ate

The offense threw it 498 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

George Pickens22.44%
Pat Freiermuth16.99%
Calvin Austin III12.64%
Najee Harris10.46%
Jaylen Warren10.24%
Van Jefferson8.71%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 11 games were blowouts, 33.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 19.31 in those and 15.07 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2023 · DEN · 15 games

His best game was Week 2 against WAS — 25.92 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 33-35. His worst was Week 6 against KC at 6.9, on 0 targets, final score 8-19. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 18.7; in the 7 decided by more, 15.3. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 16.6 points per game. He scored 17.13, 3% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1LV16-1715.1801120%100%
2WAS33-3525.92065630%100%
3MIA20-7014.2400010%100%
4CHI31-2822.22041330%100%
5NYJ21-3118.74074920%100%
6KC8-196.9043110%100%
7GB19-1713.86012110%100%
8KC24-917.56083030%100%
10BUF24-2218.72093020%100%
11MIN21-2014.4602110%100%
12CLE29-1216.760113420%100%
13HOU17-2215.840104420%100%
14LAC24-715.4606520%100%
15DET17-4217.5207620%94%
16NE23-2623.52042020%100%

Production

Carries80
Rushing yards341
Touchdowns29
Points per game17.13
Yards per carry4.26

Role

Snap share99.6%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game1.17

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share17.1%
Goal-line carry share27.8%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs2.67

Who else ate

The offense threw it 513 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Courtland Sutton18.99%
Jerry Jeudy18.35%
Javonte Williams12.24%
Samaje Perine11.81%
Jaleel McLaughlin7.59%
Adam Trautman7.38%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 15 games were blowouts, 24.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 16 in those and 18.72 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2022 · DEN · 15 games

His best game was Week 4 against LV — 27.48 PPR on 1 targets and a 4% target share, in a game that finished 23-32. His worst was Week 16 against LA at 8.26, on 0 targets, final score 14-51. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 0 times. In the 12 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 15.1; in the 3 decided by more, 14.7. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 16.6 points per game. He scored 15.05, 9.1% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1SEA16-1717.801210%100%
2HOU16-911.0602310%100%
3SF11-109.06061700%100%
4LV23-3227.48142934%100%
5IND9-129.16042200%100%
6LAC16-1913.82042310%100%
8JAX21-1713.78041710%100%
10TEN10-1714.2407810%100%
11LV16-2210.6801800%100%
12CAR10-238.4802810%100%
13BAL9-109.66022100%100%
14KC28-3425.58045730%86%
16LA14-518.26021710%75%
17KC24-2723.58042730%100%
18LAC31-2823.12081830%100%

Production

Receptions1
Targets1
Receiving yards1
Carries55
Rushing yards277
Touchdowns19
Points per game15.05
Yards per target1
Catch rate100%
Yards per carry5.04

Role

Snap share97.4%
Target share0.27%
Air-yards share-0.03%
WOPR0.004

Efficiency

Average depth of target-1
Yards after catch per reception2
Yards before catch per reception-1
Total YAC2
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted79.2
Receiving EPA per game-0.03
Rushing EPA per game1.02

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share12.5%
Goal-line carry share10.5%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs1.02

Who else ate

The offense threw it 571 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Courtland Sutton20.6%
Jerry Jeudy18.9%
Greg Dulcich10.4%
Latavius Murray6.43%
Kendall Hinton6.24%
Melvin Gordon6.05%

Blowouts against close games

1 of his 15 games were blowouts, 3.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.26 in those and 15.13 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2021 · SEA · 14 games

His best game was Week 17 against DET — 27.84 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 51-29. His worst was Week 15 against LA at 4.24, on 0 targets, final score 10-20. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 6 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 20.4; in the 8 decided by more, 15. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 15 points per game. He scored 17.34, 15.5% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1IND28-1627.0605940%100%
2TEN30-3323.32031620%100%
3MIN17-3016.6203710%100%
4SF28-2122.56042630%100%
5LA17-269.08021010%62%
10GB0-175.64053200%100%
11ARI13-238.4802200%100%
12WAS15-1719.48021620%100%
13SF30-2316.74031520%100%
14HOU33-1321.202820%100%
15LA10-204.2400000%100%
16CHI24-2516.54021320%100%
17DET51-2927.84062440%100%
18ARI38-3024.0204540%100%

Production

Carries43
Rushing yards183
Touchdowns27
Points per game17.34
Yards per carry4.26

Role

Snap share97.29%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game-0.17

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share8.5%
Goal-line carry share5.6%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0.63

Who else ate

The offense threw it 495 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

DK Metcalf27.27%
Tyler Lockett22.62%
Gerald Everett13.32%
Freddie Swain8.46%
Will Dissly5.5%
DeeJay Dallas4.86%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Russell Wilson13017.980%
Geno Smith109.080%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 14 games were blowouts, 22.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 18.23 in those and 20.44 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2020 · SEA · 16 games

His best game was Week 3 against DAL — 36.8 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 38-31. His worst was Week 10 against LA at 9.92, on 0 targets, final score 16-23. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 10 times and came in under 8 points 0 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 21.4; in the 5 decided by more, 24.9. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 20.2 points per game. He scored 22.49, 10.3% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1ATL38-2531.78032940%100%
2NE35-3033.42053950%100%
3DAL38-3136.8062250%100%
4MIA31-2320.904520%100%
5MIN27-2624.48055830%100%
7ARI34-3729.92068430%100%
8SF37-2728.74062340%100%
9BUF34-4422.102530%100%
10LA16-239.92086000%100%
11ARI28-2120.080104220%100%
12PHI23-1714.4061210%100%
13NYG12-1715.02074510%100%
14NYJ40-322.1401-140%75%
15WAS20-1512.04065210%100%
16LA20-919.903920%100%
17SF26-2318.14052920%100%

Production

Carries83
Rushing yards513
Touchdowns42
Points per game22.49
Yards per carry6.18

Role

Snap share98.44%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game0.13

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share4.9%
Goal-line carry share13%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs1.31

Who else ate

The offense threw it 563 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Tyler Lockett24.63%
DK Metcalf24.07%
David Moore8.77%
Chris Carson8.58%
Jacob Hollister7.46%
Greg Olsen6.9%

Blowouts against close games

1 of his 16 games were blowouts, 6.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 22.14 in those and 21.37 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

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