Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 5.49 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 211.1, usage worth 8.2.
28 years old · 6 seasons of experience · 2020 draft class
| SLEEPER | 251.5 |
| ESPN | 170.6 |
| UNDERDOG | 209.2 |
| FFA | 221 |
| Goes around | Round 18, pick 7 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR172 |
| Bye week | 8 |
| ADP standard deviation | 57.2 picks |
Our board has him at 96 points, 5.9 per game — 34.1 catches, 455 yards, 2.5 TDs. That is WR6, 212 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 4.8 points per game to a ceiling of 12.4, with the median at 5.9. Boom rate 99%, bust rate 18%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 211.1 on consensus and our board has him 212. Those agree, so there is no market disagreement to exploit. The question is whether you want the profile, not whether it is mispriced.
New York Giants returns 2 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, te1, hc, oc. Jaxson Dart at quarterback, Jim Harbaugh as head coach, Matt Nagy calling it. The offense projects to 30.3 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 27.7 rushes.
In: Darnell Mooney (wr2), Malachi Fields (wr4), Calvin Austin III (wr5), Isaiah Likely (te1). Out: Jaxon Dart (qb), Russell Wilson (qb), Wan'Dale Robinson (wr2), Gunner Olszewski (wr4), Daniel Bellinger (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 10.4%, with a bear case of 9.3% and a bull case of 12.4% and a full range of 6.8% to 12.8%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Malik Nabers | 25.9% |
| Darius Slayton | 11.2% |
| Darnell Mooney ← | 10.4% |
| Malachi Fields | 8.6% |
| Theo Johnson | 8.2% |
| Cam Skattebo | 7.5% |
What the offense looks like: NY still reamins a question mark but there is a lot of potential in this offense if Jaxson Dart turns into the franchise QB. He has a strong arm, is mobile, and plays with a certain type of swagger not all QBs play with. Despite what Ravens fans say, bringing Harbaugh & Nagy into NY is a very good thing. A future HOF coach that is putting his reputation on the line for this team to succeed. Harbaugh has mainly focused on the defense so far, which could imply he thinks the offense is in a good spot, but we will have to see.
Key additions: Darnell Mooney WR from ATL, Calvin Austin III WR from Steelers, Drafted WR Malachi Fields 3rd round, signed TE Isaiah Likely in free agency, New Coach Jim Harbaugh & new OC Matt Nagy.
Key departures: Russell Wilson left to free agency. Won'Dale Robinson left in free agency to the Tennessee Titans (opens up significant amount of targets)
Notes: Giants fired Daboll & brought in Harbaugh. Harbaugh should revamp offense. Brought it Isaiah Likely from Baltimore who seriously hurts Theo Johnson dynasty value (likely should be good). NY did not draft RB & Skattebo will be the starter week 1 of 2026 unless they add someone. He could have a monster season with his Jaxson Dart connection growing. Jaxson Dart gets to play with Malik Nabers for the first time & connection should be electric. Darnell Mooney is a great signing & is on a 1 year prove it deal in NY. If Dart play continues, Mooney will have value.
How the volume number was reached: New QB Jaxson Dart, avg 24.2 att/g over 2025; Regressed 65% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30.2 att/g; New OC Matt Nagy — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Jim Harbaugh.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~27, prior share 17.4%, team change, OC change, QB change. Distribution: median 10.8%, p25-p75 [8.2%, 14.8%], tails [2.8%, 15.7%]. Closest comps: Allen Robinson 2022→2023 (LA→PIT: 18.7%→10.8%); Robbie Chosen 2022→2023 (CAR→MIA: 16.1%→3.5%); D.J. Chark 2022→2023 (DET→CAR: 15.8%→14.8%). Adjustment: -3% from mixed_decline (conflicting signals)
arrival self-anchored 41% to own 17.4% role (3yr)
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: NYG rates 21.8 against a league average of 23, 1.1 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +4.4 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | +8.3 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | +5.7 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +7.9 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2 | D.J. Moore | +4.3 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -30.1% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, WRs recover only 15% of the time (keep falling 85%).
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Davis | 2024 | 5.4 | 72% | -18.4% |
| Allen Lazard | 2024 | 10.5 | 65% | -21.1% |
| Darius Slayton | 2023 | 8.9 | 65% | +23.8% |
| K.J. Osborn | 2023 | 8 | 60% | -28.8% |
| Josh Reynolds | 2023 | 8.1 | 58% | -23.8% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 4 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2020, round 5, pick 173 by CHI |
| College | Tulane |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 5′10″ |
| Weight | 176 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.38s |
| Vertical | 37″ |
| Broad jump | 124″ |
| Career PPR per game | 9.9 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.7 |
| Boom rate | 22.5% |
| Bust rate | 19.7% |
| Games missed per season | 0.5 |
| Injury history | Concussion, Hamstring |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.14 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 12 against NO — 16.4 PPR on 3 targets and a 15% target share, in a game that finished 24-10. His worst was Week 14 against SEA at 1.6, on 4 targets, final score 9-37. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 12 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 4.4; in the 6 decided by more, 7.1. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 8.2 points per game. He scored 5.49, 33% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 1.83 expected, a gap of -1.8.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | MIN | 22-6 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 19% | 86% |
| 3 | CAR | 0-30 | 8.4 | 4 | 11 | 44 | 0 | 26.8% | 89% |
| 4 | WAS | 34-27 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 3.8% | 45% |
| 7 | SF | 10-20 | 9.8 | 3 | 5 | 68 | 0 | 13.9% | 83% |
| 8 | MIA | 10-34 | 2.1 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 13.3% | 90% |
| 9 | NE | 23-24 | 2.5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 5.9% | 100% |
| 10 | IND | 25-31 | 2.7 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 0 | 32% | 90% |
| 11 | CAR | 27-30 | 6.4 | 3 | 7 | 34 | 0 | 24.1% | 92% |
| 12 | NO | 24-10 | 16.4 | 3 | 3 | 74 | 1 | 15% | 66% |
| 13 | NYJ | 24-27 | 4.5 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 16.1% | 96% |
| 14 | SEA | 9-37 | 1.6 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 14.3% | 77% |
| 15 | TB | 29-28 | 6.5 | 3 | 6 | 35 | 0 | 14.6% | 92% |
| 16 | ARI | 26-19 | 4.4 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 5.9% | 70% |
| 17 | LA | 27-24 | 5.5 | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 15% | 70% |
| 18 | NO | 19-17 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 0 | 23.3% | 83% |
| Receptions | 32 |
| Targets | 72 |
| Receiving yards | 443 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 5.49 |
| Yards per target | 6.15 |
| Catch rate | 44.44% |
| Snap share | 81.93% |
| Target share | 16.2% |
| Air-yards share | 27.97% |
| WOPR | 0.44 |
| RACR | 0.559 |
| Average depth of target | 13.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 11.6 |
| Total YAC | 73 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 69.4 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.25 |
| Red-zone targets | 8 |
| Red-zone target share | 13.1% |
| End-zone target share | 17.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.83 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.83 |
The offense threw it 545 times. He took 13.9% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Kyle Pitts | 22.78% |
| Drake London | 21.62% |
| Bijan Robinson | 19.88% |
| Darnell Mooney ← | 13.9% |
| David Sills | 6.95% |
| Tyler Allgeier | 3.09% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 8 | 34 | 5.75 | 6.76 | 14.69% |
| Michael Penix | 7 | 38 | 5.19 | 5.61 | 17.93% |
3 of his 15 games were blowouts, 14.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.03 in those and 4.44 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 5 against TB — 31.5 PPR on 16 targets and a 29.6% target share, in a game that finished 36-30. His worst was Week 15 against LV at 0, on 1 targets, final score 15-9. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12.6; in the 5 decided by more, 10.9. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 11.7 points per game. He scored 12.07, 2.9% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PIT | 10-18 | 2.5 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 13% | 95% |
| 2 | PHI | 22-21 | 17.8 | 3 | 7 | 88 | 1 | 24.1% | 100% |
| 3 | KC | 17-22 | 14.6 | 8 | 8 | 66 | 0 | 29.6% | 93% |
| 4 | NO | 26-24 | 8.6 | 3 | 6 | 56 | 0 | 17.6% | 96% |
| 5 | TB | 36-30 | 31.5 | 9 | 16 | 105 | 2 | 29.6% | 98% |
| 6 | CAR | 38-20 | 6.8 | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 | 17.2% | 96% |
| 7 | SEA | 14-34 | 9.6 | 5 | 8 | 46 | 0 | 22.2% | 88% |
| 8 | TB | 31-26 | 18.6 | 4 | 6 | 86 | 1 | 21.4% | 94% |
| 9 | DAL | 27-21 | 19.8 | 5 | 9 | 88 | 1 | 37.5% | 100% |
| 10 | NO | 17-20 | 14.6 | 5 | 9 | 96 | 0 | 24.3% | 99% |
| 11 | DEN | 6-38 | 4.7 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 13.8% | 58% |
| 13 | LAC | 13-17 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 0 | 15.8% | 94% |
| 14 | MIN | 21-42 | 20.2 | 6 | 7 | 142 | 0 | 18.9% | 95% |
| 15 | LV | 15-9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.3% | 91% |
| 16 | NYG | 34-7 | 13.2 | 5 | 6 | 82 | 0 | 23.1% | 90% |
| 17 | WAS | 24-30 | 5.7 | 2 | 5 | 37 | 0 | 14.3% | 97% |
| Receptions | 64 |
| Targets | 106 |
| Receiving yards | 992 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 12.07 |
| Yards per target | 9.36 |
| Catch rate | 60.38% |
| Snap share | 92.75% |
| Target share | 20.54% |
| Air-yards share | 32.73% |
| WOPR | 0.538 |
| RACR | 0.89 |
| Average depth of target | 12.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 11.2 |
| Total YAC | 275 |
| Broken tackles | 6 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 99.3 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.75 |
| Red-zone targets | 6 |
| Red-zone target share | 9.8% |
| End-zone target share | 3.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.53 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.53 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 33 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 10 of 51 |
| Target share | 39 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 18 of 51 |
The offense threw it 559 times. He took 19.67% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Drake London | 29.31% |
| Darnell Mooney ← | 19.67% |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 16.14% |
| Kyle Pitts | 13.73% |
| Bijan Robinson | 13.36% |
| Tyler Allgeier | 2.41% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 14 | 95 | 12.45 | 9.19 | 20.81% |
| Michael Penix | 2 | 11 | 9.45 | 10.82 | 18.7% |
5 of his 16 games were blowouts, 28.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.9 in those and 12.61 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 1 against GB — 15.3 PPR on 7 targets and a 19.4% target share, in a game that finished 20-38. His worst was Week 5 against WAS at 0, on 4 targets, final score 40-20. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6; in the 7 decided by more, 5.3. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 7.5 points per game. He scored 5.64, 24.7% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 1 against 2.36 expected, a gap of -1.4.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 20-38 | 15.3 | 4 | 7 | 53 | 1 | 19.4% | 84% |
| 3 | KC | 10-41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | 71% |
| 4 | DEN | 28-31 | 9.1 | 4 | 4 | 51 | 0 | 12.5% | 75% |
| 5 | WAS | 40-20 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16% | 78% |
| 6 | MIN | 13-19 | 6.8 | 2 | 3 | 48 | 0 | 12.5% | 79% |
| 7 | LV | 30-12 | 7.4 | 4 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 17.2% | 68% |
| 8 | LAC | 13-30 | 5.4 | 1 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 10.8% | 85% |
| 9 | NO | 17-24 | 13.2 | 5 | 6 | 82 | 0 | 23.1% | 87% |
| 10 | CAR | 16-13 | 3.4 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 12.5% | 67% |
| 11 | DET | 26-31 | 3.4 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 4.5% | 60% |
| 12 | MIN | 12-10 | 2.6 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 9.4% | 81% |
| 14 | DET | 28-13 | 6.4 | 2 | 7 | 44 | 0 | 23.3% | 90% |
| 15 | CLE | 17-20 | 3.4 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 0 | 22.9% | 86% |
| 16 | ARI | 27-16 | 2.5 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 17.4% | 81% |
| Receptions | 31 |
| Targets | 61 |
| Receiving yards | 414 |
| Carries | 2 |
| Rushing yards | 5 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 5.64 |
| Yards per target | 6.79 |
| Catch rate | 50.82% |
| Yards per carry | 2.5 |
| Snap share | 78% |
| Target share | 14.75% |
| Air-yards share | 23.11% |
| WOPR | 0.383 |
| RACR | 1.036 |
| Average depth of target | 10.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7.5 |
| Total YAC | 181 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 57.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.34 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.05 |
| Red-zone targets | 8 |
| Red-zone target share | 13.3% |
| End-zone target share | 20.7% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.36 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.36 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.05 |
The offense threw it 513 times. He took 12.95% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| D.J. Moore | 28.87% |
| Cole Kmet | 19.11% |
| Darnell Mooney ← | 12.95% |
| Roschon Johnson | 8.49% |
| Tyler Scott | 6.79% |
| Khalil Herbert | 6.58% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 9 | 39 | 4.74 | 5.05 | 14.49% |
| Tyson Bagent | 5 | 22 | 7.24 | 9.86 | 15.22% |
5 of his 14 games were blowouts, 35.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.62 in those and 5.99 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 9 against MIA — 17.5 PPR on 8 targets and a 29.6% target share, in a game that finished 32-35. His worst was Week 2 against GB at 0.6, on 2 targets, final score 10-27. Across 11 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11.3; in the 4 decided by more, 5.7. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 9.5 points per game. He scored 9.23, 2.6% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | 19-10 | 1.8 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 17.6% | 90% |
| 2 | GB | 10-27 | 0.6 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 0 | 18.2% | 90% |
| 3 | HOU | 23-20 | 4.3 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 0 | 37.5% | 94% |
| 4 | NYG | 12-20 | 13.4 | 4 | 5 | 94 | 0 | 25% | 85% |
| 5 | MIN | 22-29 | 7.2 | 2 | 5 | 52 | 0 | 23.8% | 94% |
| 6 | WAS | 7-12 | 13.8 | 7 | 12 | 68 | 0 | 46.2% | 92% |
| 7 | NE | 33-14 | 8.3 | 3 | 6 | 53 | 0 | 28.6% | 80% |
| 8 | DAL | 29-49 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 70 | 0 | 21.7% | 86% |
| 9 | MIA | 32-35 | 17.5 | 7 | 8 | 43 | 1 | 29.6% | 86% |
| 10 | DET | 30-31 | 9.7 | 4 | 4 | 57 | 0 | 22.2% | 87% |
| 11 | ATL | 24-27 | 12.9 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 1 | 26.3% | 81% |
| Receptions | 40 |
| Targets | 61 |
| Receiving yards | 493 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 2 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 9.23 |
| Yards per target | 8.08 |
| Catch rate | 65.57% |
| Yards per carry | 2 |
| Snap share | 87.73% |
| Target share | 26.97% |
| Air-yards share | 34.38% |
| WOPR | 0.645 |
| RACR | 0.765 |
| Average depth of target | 12 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.2 |
| Total YAC | 164 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 87.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.32 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.06 |
| Red-zone targets | 7 |
| Red-zone target share | 16.7% |
| End-zone target share | 21.4% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.71 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.29 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.06 |
The offense threw it 377 times. He took 17.04% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Cole Kmet | 19.27% |
| Darnell Mooney ← | 17.04% |
| Dante Pettis | 11.45% |
| David Montgomery | 11.17% |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 10.61% |
| Chase Claypool | 8.1% |
3 of his 11 games were blowouts, 20.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.97 in those and 11.26 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 18 against MIN — 24.6 PPR on 16 targets and a 34.8% target share, in a game that finished 17-31. His worst was Week 3 against CLE at 1.9, on 4 targets, final score 6-26. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 16.1; in the 11 decided by more, 11.2. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 14.3 points per game. He scored 12.92, 9.4% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 14-34 | 7.6 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 0 | 17.5% | 100% |
| 2 | CIN | 20-17 | 12.6 | 6 | 8 | 66 | 0 | 34.8% | 89% |
| 3 | CLE | 6-26 | 1.9 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 20% | 98% |
| 4 | DET | 24-14 | 18.5 | 5 | 7 | 125 | 0 | 41.2% | 71% |
| 5 | LV | 20-9 | 6.5 | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 | 25% | 77% |
| 6 | GB | 14-24 | 15.5 | 5 | 8 | 45 | 1 | 32% | 93% |
| 7 | TB | 3-38 | 5.9 | 2 | 5 | 39 | 0 | 16.1% | 86% |
| 8 | SF | 22-33 | 12.4 | 6 | 9 | 64 | 0 | 33.3% | 77% |
| 9 | PIT | 27-29 | 20.6 | 3 | 6 | 41 | 2 | 20.7% | 81% |
| 11 | BAL | 13-16 | 23.1 | 5 | 16 | 121 | 1 | 48.5% | 92% |
| 12 | DET | 16-14 | 17.5 | 5 | 8 | 123 | 0 | 21.6% | 87% |
| 13 | ARI | 22-33 | 7.7 | 5 | 7 | 27 | 0 | 17.5% | 95% |
| 14 | GB | 30-45 | 2.9 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 15.6% | 92% |
| 15 | MIN | 9-17 | 11.6 | 5 | 7 | 63 | 0 | 19.4% | 96% |
| 16 | SEA | 25-24 | 10.9 | 5 | 9 | 57 | 0 | 25.7% | 85% |
| 17 | NYG | 29-3 | 19.9 | 7 | 13 | 69 | 1 | 39.4% | 85% |
| 18 | MIN | 17-31 | 24.6 | 12 | 16 | 126 | 0 | 34.8% | 90% |
| Receptions | 81 |
| Targets | 140 |
| Receiving yards | 1,055 |
| Carries | 6 |
| Rushing yards | 32 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 12.92 |
| Yards per target | 7.54 |
| Catch rate | 57.86% |
| Yards per carry | 5.33 |
| Snap share | 87.88% |
| Target share | 27.24% |
| Air-yards share | 34.33% |
| WOPR | 0.65 |
| RACR | 0.678 |
| Average depth of target | 11.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.3 |
| Total YAC | 381 |
| Broken tackles | 5 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 67.4 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.03 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.06 |
| Red-zone targets | 11 |
| Red-zone target share | 17.5% |
| End-zone target share | 26.9% |
| Red-zone carry share | 3.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.99 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.01 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.24 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 27 of 48 |
| Yards per target | 34 of 48 |
| Target share | 8 of 48 |
| Air-yards share | 12 of 48 |
The offense threw it 542 times. He took 26.72% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Darnell Mooney ← | 26.72% |
| Cole Kmet | 17.75% |
| Allen Robinson | 12.6% |
| David Montgomery | 9.73% |
| Marquise Goodwin | 7.63% |
| Damiere Byrd | 7.25% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 10 | 64 | 10.84 | 7.91 | 25.81% |
| Andy Dalton | 6 | 67 | 16.73 | 7.34 | 29.88% |
| Nick Foles | 1 | 9 | 10.9 | 6.33 | 25.7% |
4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 16.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.82 in those and 16.05 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 17 against GB — 20.3 PPR on 13 targets and a 31.7% target share, in a game that finished 16-35. His worst was Week 10 against MIN at 2.3, on 2 targets, final score 13-19. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.9; in the 5 decided by more, 10.9. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 11 points per game. He scored 9.51, 13.9% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 4 against 2.66 expected, a gap of 1.3.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 27-23 | 6.8 | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 | 8.3% | 32% |
| 2 | NYG | 17-13 | 12.6 | 3 | 3 | 36 | 1 | 10.7% | 60% |
| 3 | ATL | 30-26 | 3.9 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 10.2% | 62% |
| 4 | IND | 11-19 | 9.9 | 5 | 9 | 52 | 0 | 21.4% | 74% |
| 5 | TB | 20-19 | 3.5 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 11.9% | 65% |
| 6 | CAR | 23-16 | 6.6 | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 | 13.9% | 67% |
| 7 | LA | 10-24 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 40 | 0 | 18.4% | 81% |
| 8 | NO | 23-26 | 17.9 | 5 | 6 | 69 | 1 | 14.6% | 93% |
| 9 | TEN | 17-24 | 9.3 | 5 | 11 | 43 | 0 | 23.4% | 87% |
| 10 | MIN | 13-19 | 2.3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6.9% | 92% |
| 12 | GB | 25-41 | 8.4 | 3 | 9 | 34 | 0 | 20.5% | 85% |
| 13 | DET | 30-34 | 8.3 | 4 | 6 | 43 | 0 | 18.2% | 81% |
| 14 | HOU | 36-7 | 10.7 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 1 | 6.1% | 75% |
| 15 | MIN | 33-27 | 16.5 | 4 | 5 | 49 | 1 | 23.8% | 83% |
| 16 | JAX | 41-17 | 8.1 | 4 | 7 | 39 | 0 | 19.4% | 74% |
| 17 | GB | 16-35 | 20.3 | 11 | 13 | 93 | 0 | 31.7% | 60% |
| Receptions | 61 |
| Targets | 98 |
| Receiving yards | 631 |
| Carries | 4 |
| Rushing yards | 20 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 9.51 |
| Yards per target | 6.44 |
| Catch rate | 62.24% |
| Yards per carry | 5 |
| Snap share | 73.19% |
| Target share | 16.21% |
| Air-yards share | 21.71% |
| WOPR | 0.396 |
| RACR | 0.814 |
| Average depth of target | 11.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.2 |
| Total YAC | 254 |
| Broken tackles | 8 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 85.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.69 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.01 |
| Red-zone targets | 10 |
| Red-zone target share | 10.9% |
| End-zone target share | 10.3% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.66 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.34 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.05 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 48 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 49 of 51 |
| Target share | 48 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 42 of 51 |
The offense threw it 614 times. He took 16.47% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Allen Robinson | 25.38% |
| Darnell Mooney ← | 16.47% |
| Jimmy Graham | 12.77% |
| Anthony Miller | 12.77% |
| David Montgomery | 11.43% |
| Cole Kmet | 7.39% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 8 | 48 | 11.46 | 7.38 | 17.34% |
| Nick Foles | 8 | 50 | 7.55 | 5.54 | 15.09% |
3 of his 16 games were blowouts, 25.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 13.03 in those and 8.87 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Darnell Mooney →