Theo Johnson
Overview
Board Oct 12Week 5 rest-of-season review, Oct 12, 2026. The three reads are where our backtested model, the betting market and his 2026 production each place him at TE; our board rank is the call.
Where his stats say he could finish from here: TE36 to TE53. Our rank stays the call.
2026 so far4 games
- 6.3% target share (45th of 48 TEs)
- 39% of snaps (45th of 48 TEs)
Ranked among 48 qualified TEs this season.
80% range 2.5–7.3 half-PPR points a game. Biggest inputs: 2025 PPG +0.3, catches per game -0.3, start vs 2025 level +0.2, team play volume -0.1. The model informs the rank; it does not set it.
Week 6
Lines Oct 14NYG
NOUpdated Oct 14, 2026, built on a NYG team total of 22. Rank is among every TE we project this week.
Allowed to TEs per game across 5 games. Best games against them: Brock Bowers (W3, 27.6 PPR, 10/13 116 yds); Michael Mayer (W3, 12.2 PPR, 3/3 32 yds); Mark Andrews (W2, 10.9 PPR, 6/7 49 yds).
EPA ranks entering Week 6: #29 against the pass, #27 against the run (1 = best defense).
Big number: receiving fantasy points NO allows a game to TEs in that zone. # = its rank of 32. Green tag = Theo Johnson's share of his targets in that zone this season. Depth is air yards at the catch point; 5 games, through Week 5. Tap a zone for the detail.
Against NO beforelast 1
| Game | Line | Pts |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 W5@ NO · L 14-26 | 6-33-2 on 7 tgt | 18.3 |
2-35 rec on 3 tgt
Game log
2026 · through W5Every gametap a game for the detail
NYG +3 (closing) · total 47.5 · 80°F, wind 7 mph · 7 days rest · prime time · division game · Injury report: practice FP
Projected 1.1 (TE73) · NYG +6.5 (closing) · total 47.5 · indoors · 8 days rest · prime time
Projected 3.1 (TE42) · NYG +2.5 (closing) · total 44.5 · 63°F, wind 9 mph · 7 days rest
Projected 2.6 (TE41) · NYG +3.5 (closing) · total 41.5 · 7 days rest · division game
D# = the opponent's rank against TEs entering that week (1 = stingiest, 32 = softest). Finish = his rank at TE that week.
Usage
What changedlast 3 full games vs. before
| W1 | W2, W4, W5 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snap share | 46.0% | 36.3% | −9.7 |
| Target share | 3.4% | 7.2% | +3.8 |
| Air-yard share | 80.0% | 8.4% | −71.6 |
| Targets a game | 1.0 | 2.7 | +1.7 |
Games he left injured are left out of both sides.
NYG target treeshare of team targets, 2026
Season to date, games each player played.
Role details2026, through Week 5
Advanced
Percentile against the TEs on our charts (each stat's minimum is next to it), 2026 through Week 5. 50 is the middle of the pack. Tap a bubble for his rank.
Expected vs. actualPPR, from this season's play-by-play
1 TDs on 0.37 expected. Expected points price every target by depth and field position and every carry by field position. Do touchdowns regress? ›
Splits
As a receiver2026 charted plays, through Week 5
| Situation | Tgt | Rec-Yds-TD | Yds/tgt | EPA/tgt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All targets | 9 | 4-55-1 | 6.17.1 | 0.250.25 |
| Red zone11% of targets | 1 | 1-11-1 | 11.04.6 | 2.230.61 |
| Third down11% of targets | 1 | 0-0-0 | 0.06.6 | -1.830.21 |
| Score within 778% of targets | 7 | 3-34-1 | 4.97.0 | 0.160.22 |
| Trailing by 8+22% of targets | 2 | 1-21-0 | 10.56.7 | 0.570.20 |
| Two-minute drill11% of targets | 1 | 1-14-0 | 14.06.4 | 1.480.23 |
| Vs. the blitz33% of targets | 3 | 0-0-0 | 0.06.8 | -0.960.20 |
| No blitz67% of targets | 6 | 4-55-1 | 9.27.2 | 0.860.27 |
| Play action33% of targets | 3 | 1-9-0 | 3.07.3 | -0.060.25 |
| With motion11% of targets | 1 | 1-21-0 | 21.07.4 | 1.600.29 |
Small grey number = every TE in that situation. Green or red = a clear gap either way. 4 of his 9 charted targets were catchable; 0 drops, 1 of 2 contested caught.
Against coverage2024-2025 (2026 is not charted per player)
| Coverage | Tgt | Yds/tgt | Caught | EPA/tgt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man | 43 | 7.8 | 63% | +0.09 |
| Zone | 74 | 7.1 | 64% | +0.13 |
| Cover 1 | 32 | 8.9 | 63% | +0.24 |
| Cover 3 | 31 | 7.4 | 65% | +0.40 |
| Cover 2 | 25 | 7.3 | 72% | −0.12 |
With and withoutfantasy points a game, NYG, 2025–2026
"Without" = games he played and the teammate did not (a QB counts as playing with 10+ attempts). Games either of them left injured are left out. Small samples swing hard. Who benefits when a player gets hurt? ›
Team
NYGNew York Giants offense, 2026 through Week 5. Rank 1 = most. Scheme rates from FTN charting through Week 5.
Game by gamescore, implied total, pass rate (over expected), QB
| Week | Score | Implied | Pass rate | QB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1vs DAL | 28-20 | 22.3 | 48%−7.2 | Dart29 att |
| W2vs LA | 6-28 | 20.5 | 62%−6.0 | Winston27 att |
| W3vs TEN | 12-7 | 20.0 | 44%−19.1 | Winston22 att |
| W4vs ARI | 36-24 | 21.0 | 54%−10.2 | Winston29 att |
| W5vs WAS | 27-27 | 19.0 | 68%−1.6 | Winston54 att |
Depth chartTE, Oct 14
Scheduleeach defense's current rank vs TEs
Green = soft, red = stingy (1 = stingiest, 32 = softest), ranked on fantasy points allowed to TEs so far. Gold underline = fantasy playoffs. Does strength of schedule matter? ›
Head coach: John Harbaugh. QB: Jameis Winston (most pass attempts, Week 5).
Charts
Theo Johnson is highlighted on each chart. Swipe for more; tap a dot for the player. Every chart saves and shares as an image on the Charts page.
Career
Season by season
| Year | G | Rec-Yds-TD | Pts/g | xFP/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026NYG | 4 | 4-55-19 tgt, 6.3% share | 3.4TE48 | 3.9−0.1 |
| 2025NYG | 15 | 45-528-574 tgt, 17.2% share, routes 89% | 7.0TE24 | 9.0−6.6 |
| 2024NYG | 11 | 29-331-143 tgt, 13.5% share, routes 88% | 4.9TE34 | 7.6−8.0 |
Under points a game: his rank at TE in points a game (8+ games; 2026: 2+ games). xFP = expected PPR a game from his usage; under it, the season's points over expected. Routes = share of team dropbacks he ran a route (through 2025).
Red zone and touchdowns
| 2025 | 14 RZ tgt (22%), 7 end-zone, 4 rec TD vs 3.6 exp |
| 2024 | 1 RZ tgt (2%), 1 end-zone, 0 rec TD vs 0.5 exp |
Floor and ceilingPPR
1 of his last 26 games reached 20 PPR; 17 finished under 10. Is there a floor-vs-ceiling trade-off? ›
Every game since 2024
2025 game log 15 games · NYG · 8.5 PPR a game
| Game | Line | Snaps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1@ WAS · D10 | 1-5 on 3 tgt | 78% | 1.0 |
| W2@ DAL · D6 | 4-34 on 5 tgt | 84% | 5.4 |
| W3vs KC · D27 | 1-10 on 2 tgt | 86% | 1.5 |
| W4vs LAC · D8 | 3-17-1 on 5 tgt | 70% | 9.2 |
| W5@ NO · D17 | 6-33-2 on 7 tgt | 82% | 18.3 |
| W6vs PHI · D4 | 2-27 on 4 tgt | 90% | 3.7 |
| W7@ DEN · D4 | 3-66-1 on 7 tgt | 88% | 14.1 |
| W8@ PHI · D4 | 3-20 on 4 tgt | 98% | 3.5 |
| W9vs SF · D11 | 3-27-1 on 6 tgt | 86% | 10.2 |
| W10@ CHI · D22 | 7-75 on 8 tgt | 97% | 11.0 |
| W11vs GB · D21 | 3-36 on 4 tgt | 92% | 5.1 |
| W12@ DET · D13 | 3-77 on 5 tgt | 78% | 9.2 |
| W13@ NE · D24 | 3-29 on 8 tgt | 89% | 4.4 |
| W15vs WAS · D28 | 3-72 on 4 tgt | 87% | 8.7 |
| W16vs MIN · D15 | 0-0 on 2 tgt | 96% | 0.0 |
2024 game log 11 games · NYG · 6.2 PPR a game
| Game | Line | Snaps | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| W1vs MIN · D14 | 1-18 on 4 tgt | 86% | 2.3 |
| W3@ CLE · D1 | 1-13 on 3 tgt | 81% | 1.8 |
| W4vs DAL · D13 | 1-6 on 1 tgt | 71% | 1.1 |
| W5@ SEA · D24 | 5-48 on 5 tgt | 78% | 7.3 |
| W6vs CIN · D26 | 3-30 on 3 tgt | 89% | 4.5 |
| W7vs PHI · D2 | no stats | 90% | 0.0 |
| W8@ PIT · D22 | 3-35 on 4 tgt | 97% | 5.0 |
| W9vs WAS · D8 | 3-51-1 on 6 tgt | 85% | 12.6 |
| W10@ CAR · D32 | 4-37 on 6 tgt | 92% | 5.7 |
| W12vs TB · D28 | 3-39 on 6 tgt | 73% | 5.4 |
| W13@ DAL · D9 | 5-54 on 5 tgt | 89% | 7.9 |
Health
No injury designation. Not on the Sleeper injury list as of Oct 10 and not on the Week 6 practice report so far.
2026 injury reportofficial, week by week
✓ = not listed. Letters = game status (Q, D, O) or worst practice that week (LP limited, DNP did not practice). Tap a week for the detail.
Historyofficial injury reports since 2020
| Year | Weeks listed | Ruled out | Listed for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5 | 2 | Toe (2), Illness (2), Shoulder |
| 2024 | 3 | 0 | Back (2), Knee |
2 games missed 2023–25 (1.00 a season).
8 report weeks over 2 seasons; recurring: Knee, Back, Toe, Shoulder, Illness. Risk label: low.
Teammates on the report
Our current notes first, then Sleeper designations. What happens when a starter is ruled out? ›
Value
Market Oct 10Market value on a 0–10,000 scale, through Oct 10, 2026. Faint stretches are estimates between real readings. Gold = peak.
Teal dot = today (2,669). Box = the middle half of outcomes, white line = the median, whiskers = 10th to 90th percentile. TEs about 26 valued near #227 overall: real 1-year moves since 2022, weighted by exact age and market rank (about 51 players' worth).
Risk profilepreseason, from comparable players
2019 Mike Gesicki (60% match). He went from 9.1 to 10.6 PPR a game the next year (TE1→TE1). His dynasty value moved +7.6% over the next 12 months.
201.2 overall, TE74. ESPN 170.2 · Underdog 215.8 · Sleeper 232.2
Profile
College production
| Year | G | Rec-Yds-TD | Yds share | Dominator |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Penn State | 11 | 32-325-6 | 15.3% | 20.2 |
| 2022Penn State | 8 | 19-300-4 | 15.6% | 18.4 |
| 2021Penn State | 9 | 19-213-1 | 8.3% | 6.7 |
| 2020Penn State | 3 | 4-56-0 | 6.3% | 3.2 |
Share = his share of his team's receiving yards. Dominator = average of his share of receiving yards and TDs.