TE · IND · GWTTKB

Mo Alie-Cox — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 2.79 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 170, usage worth 3.3.

32 years old · 9 seasons of experience · 2017 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.
ADP 170
Consensus across 1 books, 0 picks between cheapest and priciest. Cheapest on espn, priciest on espn.
ESPN170
FFA428

Draft-room facts

Goes aroundRound 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft
Positional rankTE56

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 25.3 points, 1.7 per game — 10.5 catches, 94 yards, 0.9 TDs. That is TE5, 327 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 1.1 points per game to a ceiling of 3.4, with the median at 1.7. Boom rate 99%, bust rate 32%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

He goes at 170 on consensus and our board has him 327. We rank him 157 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.

The offense he plays in, 2026

Indianapolis Colts returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1. Daniel Jones at quarterback, Shane Steichen as head coach, Jim Bob Cooter calling it. The offense projects to 32.5 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 26.1 rushes.

In: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (wr3), Deion Burks (wr5), Seth McGowan (rb3), Anderson Castle (rb4). Out: Michael Pittman Jr (wr1), Adonai Mitchell (wr4), Ameer Abdullah (rb3).

His own projected target share for 2026 is 2.9%, with a bear case of 1.2% and a bull case of 4.4%.

The projected target split across the offense:

Josh Downs20.1%
Tyler Warren19.1%
Alec Pierce17%
Jonathan Taylor10.1%
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine10%
Deion Burks4.8%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

What the offense looks like: The Colts seriously need Daniel Jones to BE THAT GUY. Taylor, Downs, and especially Alec Pierce rely on having a highly productive passing game that helps lift the entire offense as whole. Tyler Warren has shown flashes of being the next George Kittle, really awesome player.

Key additions: Colts brought in WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine in free agency. Westbrook-Ikhine was a highly dynamic WR while in Tennessee. Could be nohting, but could help.

Key departures: WR Michael Pittman Jr traded to Steelers. QB Anthony Richardson requested a trade & will not play again for the Colts.

Notes: Anthony Richardson will be traded or released. Daniel Jones on track for full recovery from torn achilles & landed extension. Very positive for offense. Jonathan Taylor aging but HIGHLY productive. Alec Pierce lands MASSVIVE 4 year contract & Colts invested in him as their WR1. Josh Downs is primed for an increase workload & could truly break out in 2026. Michael Pittman Jr. traded to Steelers. Tyler Warren is a top TE in dynasty & could have a MASSIVE season next year.

How the volume number was reached: Same QB Daniel Jones returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (32.1 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.5 att/g.

How that share projection was built

Depth/practice piece (holdover_no_qualifying_multi_year_sample) — slot prior 3.0% baseline.

The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.

Offensive environment: IND rates 23.3 against a league average of 23, 0.3 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season+1.1 · neutral
Weeks 1–6+4.7 · easier
Weeks 12–17-0.8 · neutral
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)+2.9 · easier

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved 0% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Durham Smythe2024168%+26.5%
Harrison Bryant20242.967%+48.9%
Will Dissly20233.166%+219.4%
Foster Moreau20233.663%+61.9%
Kylen Granson2024262%-40.3%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 4 gained value, 1 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

02,000202120222023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2020-04 to 2026-07. Up 85% across the series, peaking at 1,570.

The player

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game4
Week-to-week variation1.2
Boom rate7.8%
Bust rate39.1%
Games missed per season0.2
Injury historyKnee

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · IND · 11 games

His best game was Week 17 against JAX — 11 PPR on 3 targets and a 10.3% target share, in a game that finished 17-23. His worst was Week 14 against JAX at 0, on 2 targets, final score 19-36. Across 11 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 3.2; in the 4 decided by more, 2.1. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 3.3 points per game. He scored 2.79, 15.4% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1MIA33-83112003.4%45%
2DEN29-281.811803%35%
6ARI31-272.6121606.7%63%
7LAC38-241.612606.3%30%
9PIT20-27001002.1%37%
10ATL31-25001003.8%45%
12KC20-231.911903.2%49%
14JAX19-36002005.6%27%
16SF27-483.6221605.6%22%
17JAX17-23113320110.3%42%
18HOU30-385.23422012.1%42%

Production

Receptions13
Targets20
Receiving yards117
Touchdowns1
Points per game2.79
Yards per target5.85
Catch rate65%

Role

Snap share39.73%
Target share5.65%
Air-yards share3.4%
WOPR0.108
RACR2.022

Efficiency

Average depth of target4.7
Yards after catch per reception5.9
Yards before catch per reception3.1
Total YAC77
Broken tackles1
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted76.5
Receiving EPA per game-0.08

Scoring position

Red-zone targets6
Red-zone target share7.8%
End-zone target share3.8%
Expected receiving TDs1.39
Actual receiving TDs1
Receiving TD luck-0.39

Who else ate

The offense threw it 546 times. He took 3.79% of the targets. 4 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Tyler Warren21.21%
Michael Pittman21.02%
Josh Downs16.67%
Alec Pierce15.91%
Jonathan Taylor10.42%
Mo Alie-Cox 3.79%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Daniel Jones791.566.564.07%
Riley Leonard262.63.678.85%
Philip Rivers257.37.27.95%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 11 games were blowouts, 21.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.2 in those and 3.21 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2024 · IND · 12 games

His best game was Week 5 against JAX — 11.7 PPR on 4 targets and a 8.9% target share, in a game that finished 34-37. His worst was Week 18 against JAX at 0, on 1 targets, final score 26-23. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 3.2 points per game. He scored 2.73, 15.9% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1HOU27-29001005.3%40%
2GB10-163.2112203.2%32%
3CHI21-16001005.6%55%
5JAX34-3711.7243718.9%41%
6TEN20-178.14441011.1%49%
7MIA16-10001004.5%53%
8HOU20-23001003.2%42%
11NYJ28-273.72317010.7%40%
13NE25-243.5221508.3%58%
16TEN38-302.51215018.2%48%
17NYG33-45001002.7%40%
18JAX26-23001002.6%38%

Production

Receptions12
Targets22
Receiving yards147
Touchdowns1
Points per game2.73
Yards per target6.68
Catch rate54.55%

Role

Snap share44.67%
Target share7.02%
Air-yards share5.68%
WOPR0.144
RACR0.652

Efficiency

Average depth of target9.6
Yards after catch per reception4.1
Yards before catch per reception8.2
Total YAC49
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted71.6
Receiving EPA per game0.58

Scoring position

Red-zone targets6
Red-zone target share9.4%
End-zone target share15.4%
Expected receiving TDs1.02
Actual receiving TDs1
Receiving TD luck-0.02

Who else ate

The offense threw it 513 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Michael Pittman22.61%
Josh Downs21.79%
Alec Pierce14.05%
Adonai Mitchell11.2%
Jonathan Taylor6.31%
Kylen Granson6.31%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Anthony Richardson8121.615.757.38%
Joe Flacco4104.957.86.33%

2023 · IND · 14 games

His best game was Week 4 against LA — 10.5 PPR on 1 targets and a 4.2% target share, in a game that finished 23-29. His worst was Week 16 against ATL at 0, on 1 targets, final score 10-29. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 12 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 3.9; in the 7 decided by more, 3.1. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 2.9 points per game. He scored 3.51, 28.9% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 2 against 0.88 expected, a gap of 1.1.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1JAX21-31002005.1%42%
2HOU31-202.5111503.2%40%
4LA23-2910.5113514.2%27%
5TEN23-162.7111704.2%18%
7CLE38-390.411-604.5%46%
8NO27-382.1121105.3%32%
9CAR27-13000000%51%
10NE10-6001003.8%60%
12TB27-204113002.5%47%
14CIN14-347.211212.6%28%
15PIT30-1310.12321111.1%52%
16ATL10-29001002.9%27%
17LV23-203.82318015%61%
18HOU19-235.82418017.4%53%

Production

Receptions13
Targets22
Receiving yards161
Touchdowns3
Points per game3.51
Yards per target7.32
Catch rate59.09%

Role

Snap share41.71%
Target share5.84%
Air-yards share6.74%
WOPR0.135
RACR0.694

Efficiency

Average depth of target10.1
Yards after catch per reception6.2
Yards before catch per reception6.2
Total YAC80
Broken tackles1
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted102.5
Receiving EPA per game0.54

Scoring position

Red-zone targets4
Red-zone target share6.2%
End-zone target share11.8%
Expected receiving TDs0.88
Actual receiving TDs2
Receiving TD luck1.12

Who else ate

The offense threw it 574 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Michael Pittman28.57%
Josh Downs17.95%
Alec Pierce11.9%
Kylen Granson9.16%
Zack Moss6.78%
Will Mallory4.76%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Gardner Minshew12193.226.636.04%
Anthony Richardson235.2511.674.65%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 14 games were blowouts, 35.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.77 in those and 3.89 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2022 · IND · 14 games

His best game was Week 4 against TEN — 26.5 PPR on 6 targets and a 16.7% target share, in a game that finished 17-24. His worst was Week 13 against DAL at -0.4, on 1 targets, final score 19-54. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.3; in the 5 decided by more, 1.2. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 3.5 points per game. He scored 3.85, 10% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 3 against 1.33 expected, a gap of 1.7.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1HOU20-204.6222604.1%54%
2JAX0-241.9139010.3%54%
3KC20-171.913908.3%59%
4TEN17-2426.56685216.7%70%
5DEN12-91.711702.8%44%
8WAS16-17001004.3%50%
9NE3-263.3221307.1%55%
11PHI16-172.4111403.2%62%
12PIT17-243.4231409.4%34%
13DAL19-54-0.411602.9%43%
15MIN36-39001003.2%51%
16LAC3-201.212207.1%44%
17NYG10-38001003.7%53%
18HOU31-327.411412.9%60%

Production

Receptions19
Targets28
Receiving yards189
Touchdowns3
Points per game3.85
Yards per target6.75
Catch rate67.86%

Role

Snap share52.36%
Target share6.14%
Air-yards share4.72%
WOPR0.125
RACR1.37

Efficiency

Average depth of target5.4
Yards after catch per reception5.2
Yards before catch per reception4.7
Total YAC99
Broken tackles2
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted122.5
Receiving EPA per game-0.11

Scoring position

Red-zone targets4
Red-zone target share6.3%
End-zone target share7.1%
Expected receiving TDs1.33
Actual receiving TDs3
Receiving TD luck1.67

Who else ate

The offense threw it 604 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Michael Pittman24.35%
Parris Campbell15.72%
Alec Pierce13.47%
Jonathan Taylor6.91%
Kylen Granson6.91%
Jelani Woods6.91%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Matt Ryan9214.678.16.77%
Sam Ehlinger452.673.44.5%
Nick Foles121.217.1%

Blowouts against close games

5 of his 14 games were blowouts, 11.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 1.2 in those and 5.32 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2021 · IND · 17 games

His best game was Week 4 against MIA — 19.2 PPR on 5 targets and a 15.6% target share, in a game that finished 27-17. His worst was Week 15 against NE at 0, on 1 targets, final score 27-17. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 3.7; in the 10 decided by more, 5.3. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 4.6 points per game. He scored 4.68, 1.4% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1SEA16-28002005.7%51%
2LA24-272.8121805.7%40%
3TEN16-253.4221405.9%46%
4MIA27-1719.23542215.6%69%
5BAL25-3183450011.8%45%
6HOU31-39.81328116.7%50%
7SF30-1811.53325111.5%63%
8TEN31-34004008.3%49%
9NYJ45-303.8112803.4%61%
10JAX23-171.612606.1%55%
11BUF41-15001005%41%
12TB31-381.812804.7%57%
13HOU31-0111004.5%43%
15NE27-17001008.3%77%
16ARI22-166.22442014.3%90%
17LV20-235.83528020.8%57%
18JAX11-264.72327010.3%39%

Production

Receptions24
Targets45
Receiving yards316
Touchdowns4
Points per game4.68
Yards per target7.02
Catch rate53.33%

Role

Snap share54.88%
Target share9.33%
Air-yards share10.4%
WOPR0.213
RACR1.414

Efficiency

Average depth of target9.9
Yards after catch per reception6.3
Yards before catch per reception6.9
Total YAC150
Broken tackles2
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted96.2
Receiving EPA per game0.52

Scoring position

Red-zone targets9
Red-zone target share13.2%
End-zone target share19.2%
Expected receiving TDs2.42
Actual receiving TDs3
Receiving TD luck0.58

Who else ate

The offense threw it 521 times. He took 8.98% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Michael Pittman25.75%
Zach Pascal13.77%
Nyheim Miller-Hines11.38%
Jonathan Taylor10.18%
Mo Alie-Cox 8.98%
Jack Doyle8.58%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 13.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.6 in those and 3.74 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2020 · IND · 14 games

His best game was Week 2 against MIN — 16.1 PPR on 6 targets and a 24% target share, in a game that finished 28-11. His worst was Week 5 against CLE at 0, on 1 targets, final score 23-32. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 4.3; in the 8 decided by more, 6.9. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 5.1 points per game. He scored 5.74, 15.3% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1JAX20-274222004.3%39%
2MIN28-1116.156111024%67%
3NYJ36-7143350112%59%
4CHI19-118.3121317.1%46%
5CLE23-32001003.1%38%
8DET41-216.73437012.1%42%
9BAL10-247.3334307.5%51%
10TEN34-174.93419011.1%66%
11GB34-311.6231608.6%51%
12TEN26-453.9221904.8%51%
13HOU26-205.33523014.3%64%
14LV44-271.911903.7%33%
15HOU27-203.4221406.9%45%
16PIT24-283112002.9%33%

Production

Receptions31
Targets39
Receiving yards394
Touchdowns2
Points per game5.74
Yards per target10.1
Catch rate79.49%

Role

Snap share48.93%
Target share8.74%
Air-yards share8.58%
WOPR0.192
RACR1.723

Efficiency

Average depth of target6.8
Yards after catch per reception5.9
Yards before catch per reception6.8
Total YAC182
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted104.5
Receiving EPA per game0.91

Scoring position

Red-zone targets7
Red-zone target share8%
End-zone target share8%
Expected receiving TDs1.74
Actual receiving TDs2
Receiving TD luck0.26

Who else ate

The offense threw it 552 times. He took 7.29% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

T.Y. Hilton17.38%
Nyheim Miller-Hines14.21%
Zach Pascal13.27%
Michael Pittman11.4%
Trey Burton8.79%
Mo Alie-Cox 7.29%

Blowouts against close games

6 of his 14 games were blowouts, 59.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.92 in those and 4.27 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

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