Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 2.79 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 170, usage worth 3.3.
32 years old · 9 seasons of experience · 2017 draft class
| ESPN | 170 |
| FFA | 428 |
| Goes around | Round 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | TE56 |
Our board has him at 25.3 points, 1.7 per game — 10.5 catches, 94 yards, 0.9 TDs. That is TE5, 327 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 1.1 points per game to a ceiling of 3.4, with the median at 1.7. Boom rate 99%, bust rate 32%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 170 on consensus and our board has him 327. We rank him 157 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
Indianapolis Colts returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1. Daniel Jones at quarterback, Shane Steichen as head coach, Jim Bob Cooter calling it. The offense projects to 32.5 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 26.1 rushes.
In: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (wr3), Deion Burks (wr5), Seth McGowan (rb3), Anderson Castle (rb4). Out: Michael Pittman Jr (wr1), Adonai Mitchell (wr4), Ameer Abdullah (rb3).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 2.9%, with a bear case of 1.2% and a bull case of 4.4%.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Josh Downs | 20.1% |
| Tyler Warren | 19.1% |
| Alec Pierce | 17% |
| Jonathan Taylor | 10.1% |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 10% |
| Deion Burks | 4.8% |
What the offense looks like: The Colts seriously need Daniel Jones to BE THAT GUY. Taylor, Downs, and especially Alec Pierce rely on having a highly productive passing game that helps lift the entire offense as whole. Tyler Warren has shown flashes of being the next George Kittle, really awesome player.
Key additions: Colts brought in WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine in free agency. Westbrook-Ikhine was a highly dynamic WR while in Tennessee. Could be nohting, but could help.
Key departures: WR Michael Pittman Jr traded to Steelers. QB Anthony Richardson requested a trade & will not play again for the Colts.
Notes: Anthony Richardson will be traded or released. Daniel Jones on track for full recovery from torn achilles & landed extension. Very positive for offense. Jonathan Taylor aging but HIGHLY productive. Alec Pierce lands MASSVIVE 4 year contract & Colts invested in him as their WR1. Josh Downs is primed for an increase workload & could truly break out in 2026. Michael Pittman Jr. traded to Steelers. Tyler Warren is a top TE in dynasty & could have a MASSIVE season next year.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Daniel Jones returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (32.1 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.5 att/g.
Depth/practice piece (holdover_no_qualifying_multi_year_sample) — slot prior 3.0% baseline.
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: IND rates 23.3 against a league average of 23, 0.3 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +1.1 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | +4.7 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -0.8 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +2.9 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved 0% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durham Smythe | 2024 | 1 | 68% | +26.5% |
| Harrison Bryant | 2024 | 2.9 | 67% | +48.9% |
| Will Dissly | 2023 | 3.1 | 66% | +219.4% |
| Foster Moreau | 2023 | 3.6 | 63% | +61.9% |
| Kylen Granson | 2024 | 2 | 62% | -40.3% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 4 gained value, 1 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Career PPR per game | 4 |
| Week-to-week variation | 1.2 |
| Boom rate | 7.8% |
| Bust rate | 39.1% |
| Games missed per season | 0.2 |
| Injury history | Knee |
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 17 against JAX — 11 PPR on 3 targets and a 10.3% target share, in a game that finished 17-23. His worst was Week 14 against JAX at 0, on 2 targets, final score 19-36. Across 11 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 3.2; in the 4 decided by more, 2.1. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 3.3 points per game. He scored 2.79, 15.4% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | 33-8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 3.4% | 45% |
| 2 | DEN | 29-28 | 1.8 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | 35% |
| 6 | ARI | 31-27 | 2.6 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 6.7% | 63% |
| 7 | LAC | 38-24 | 1.6 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6.3% | 30% |
| 9 | PIT | 20-27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.1% | 37% |
| 10 | ATL | 31-25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.8% | 45% |
| 12 | KC | 20-23 | 1.9 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3.2% | 49% |
| 14 | JAX | 19-36 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5.6% | 27% |
| 16 | SF | 27-48 | 3.6 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 5.6% | 22% |
| 17 | JAX | 17-23 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 10.3% | 42% |
| 18 | HOU | 30-38 | 5.2 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 12.1% | 42% |
| Receptions | 13 |
| Targets | 20 |
| Receiving yards | 117 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 2.79 |
| Yards per target | 5.85 |
| Catch rate | 65% |
| Snap share | 39.73% |
| Target share | 5.65% |
| Air-yards share | 3.4% |
| WOPR | 0.108 |
| RACR | 2.022 |
| Average depth of target | 4.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 3.1 |
| Total YAC | 77 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 76.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.08 |
| Red-zone targets | 6 |
| Red-zone target share | 7.8% |
| End-zone target share | 3.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.39 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.39 |
The offense threw it 546 times. He took 3.79% of the targets. 4 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Tyler Warren | 21.21% |
| Michael Pittman | 21.02% |
| Josh Downs | 16.67% |
| Alec Pierce | 15.91% |
| Jonathan Taylor | 10.42% |
| Mo Alie-Cox ← | 3.79% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 7 | 9 | 1.56 | 6.56 | 4.07% |
| Riley Leonard | 2 | 6 | 2.6 | 3.67 | 8.85% |
| Philip Rivers | 2 | 5 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 7.95% |
3 of his 11 games were blowouts, 21.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.2 in those and 3.21 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 5 against JAX — 11.7 PPR on 4 targets and a 8.9% target share, in a game that finished 34-37. His worst was Week 18 against JAX at 0, on 1 targets, final score 26-23. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times.
His usage that season was worth 3.2 points per game. He scored 2.73, 15.9% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | 27-29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5.3% | 40% |
| 2 | GB | 10-16 | 3.2 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 3.2% | 32% |
| 3 | CHI | 21-16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5.6% | 55% |
| 5 | JAX | 34-37 | 11.7 | 2 | 4 | 37 | 1 | 8.9% | 41% |
| 6 | TEN | 20-17 | 8.1 | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 11.1% | 49% |
| 7 | MIA | 16-10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.5% | 53% |
| 8 | HOU | 20-23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.2% | 42% |
| 11 | NYJ | 28-27 | 3.7 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 10.7% | 40% |
| 13 | NE | 25-24 | 3.5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 8.3% | 58% |
| 16 | TEN | 38-30 | 2.5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 18.2% | 48% |
| 17 | NYG | 33-45 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.7% | 40% |
| 18 | JAX | 26-23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.6% | 38% |
| Receptions | 12 |
| Targets | 22 |
| Receiving yards | 147 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 2.73 |
| Yards per target | 6.68 |
| Catch rate | 54.55% |
| Snap share | 44.67% |
| Target share | 7.02% |
| Air-yards share | 5.68% |
| WOPR | 0.144 |
| RACR | 0.652 |
| Average depth of target | 9.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.2 |
| Total YAC | 49 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 71.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.58 |
| Red-zone targets | 6 |
| Red-zone target share | 9.4% |
| End-zone target share | 15.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.02 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.02 |
The offense threw it 513 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Michael Pittman | 22.61% |
| Josh Downs | 21.79% |
| Alec Pierce | 14.05% |
| Adonai Mitchell | 11.2% |
| Jonathan Taylor | 6.31% |
| Kylen Granson | 6.31% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Richardson | 8 | 12 | 1.61 | 5.75 | 7.38% |
| Joe Flacco | 4 | 10 | 4.95 | 7.8 | 6.33% |
His best game was Week 4 against LA — 10.5 PPR on 1 targets and a 4.2% target share, in a game that finished 23-29. His worst was Week 16 against ATL at 0, on 1 targets, final score 10-29. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 12 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 3.9; in the 7 decided by more, 3.1. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 2.9 points per game. He scored 3.51, 28.9% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 2 against 0.88 expected, a gap of 1.1.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | 21-31 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5.1% | 42% |
| 2 | HOU | 31-20 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 3.2% | 40% |
| 4 | LA | 23-29 | 10.5 | 1 | 1 | 35 | 1 | 4.2% | 27% |
| 5 | TEN | 23-16 | 2.7 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 4.2% | 18% |
| 7 | CLE | 38-39 | 0.4 | 1 | 1 | -6 | 0 | 4.5% | 46% |
| 8 | NO | 27-38 | 2.1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 5.3% | 32% |
| 9 | CAR | 27-13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 51% |
| 10 | NE | 10-6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.8% | 60% |
| 12 | TB | 27-20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 | 2.5% | 47% |
| 14 | CIN | 14-34 | 7.2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2.6% | 28% |
| 15 | PIT | 30-13 | 10.1 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 11.1% | 52% |
| 16 | ATL | 10-29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.9% | 27% |
| 17 | LV | 23-20 | 3.8 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 15% | 61% |
| 18 | HOU | 19-23 | 5.8 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 17.4% | 53% |
| Receptions | 13 |
| Targets | 22 |
| Receiving yards | 161 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 3.51 |
| Yards per target | 7.32 |
| Catch rate | 59.09% |
| Snap share | 41.71% |
| Target share | 5.84% |
| Air-yards share | 6.74% |
| WOPR | 0.135 |
| RACR | 0.694 |
| Average depth of target | 10.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.2 |
| Total YAC | 80 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 102.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.54 |
| Red-zone targets | 4 |
| Red-zone target share | 6.2% |
| End-zone target share | 11.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.88 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.12 |
The offense threw it 574 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Michael Pittman | 28.57% |
| Josh Downs | 17.95% |
| Alec Pierce | 11.9% |
| Kylen Granson | 9.16% |
| Zack Moss | 6.78% |
| Will Mallory | 4.76% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 12 | 19 | 3.22 | 6.63 | 6.04% |
| Anthony Richardson | 2 | 3 | 5.25 | 11.67 | 4.65% |
3 of his 14 games were blowouts, 35.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.77 in those and 3.89 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 4 against TEN — 26.5 PPR on 6 targets and a 16.7% target share, in a game that finished 17-24. His worst was Week 13 against DAL at -0.4, on 1 targets, final score 19-54. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.3; in the 5 decided by more, 1.2. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 3.5 points per game. He scored 3.85, 10% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 3 against 1.33 expected, a gap of 1.7.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | 20-20 | 4.6 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 4.1% | 54% |
| 2 | JAX | 0-24 | 1.9 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 10.3% | 54% |
| 3 | KC | 20-17 | 1.9 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 8.3% | 59% |
| 4 | TEN | 17-24 | 26.5 | 6 | 6 | 85 | 2 | 16.7% | 70% |
| 5 | DEN | 12-9 | 1.7 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2.8% | 44% |
| 8 | WAS | 16-17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.3% | 50% |
| 9 | NE | 3-26 | 3.3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 7.1% | 55% |
| 11 | PHI | 16-17 | 2.4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 3.2% | 62% |
| 12 | PIT | 17-24 | 3.4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 9.4% | 34% |
| 13 | DAL | 19-54 | -0.4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2.9% | 43% |
| 15 | MIN | 36-39 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.2% | 51% |
| 16 | LAC | 3-20 | 1.2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7.1% | 44% |
| 17 | NYG | 10-38 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.7% | 53% |
| 18 | HOU | 31-32 | 7.4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2.9% | 60% |
| Receptions | 19 |
| Targets | 28 |
| Receiving yards | 189 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 3.85 |
| Yards per target | 6.75 |
| Catch rate | 67.86% |
| Snap share | 52.36% |
| Target share | 6.14% |
| Air-yards share | 4.72% |
| WOPR | 0.125 |
| RACR | 1.37 |
| Average depth of target | 5.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 4.7 |
| Total YAC | 99 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 122.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.11 |
| Red-zone targets | 4 |
| Red-zone target share | 6.3% |
| End-zone target share | 7.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.33 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.67 |
The offense threw it 604 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Michael Pittman | 24.35% |
| Parris Campbell | 15.72% |
| Alec Pierce | 13.47% |
| Jonathan Taylor | 6.91% |
| Kylen Granson | 6.91% |
| Jelani Woods | 6.91% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 9 | 21 | 4.67 | 8.1 | 6.77% |
| Sam Ehlinger | 4 | 5 | 2.67 | 3.4 | 4.5% |
| Nick Foles | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1 | 7.1% |
5 of his 14 games were blowouts, 11.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 1.2 in those and 5.32 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 4 against MIA — 19.2 PPR on 5 targets and a 15.6% target share, in a game that finished 27-17. His worst was Week 15 against NE at 0, on 1 targets, final score 27-17. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 3.7; in the 10 decided by more, 5.3. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 4.6 points per game. He scored 4.68, 1.4% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | 16-28 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5.7% | 51% |
| 2 | LA | 24-27 | 2.8 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 5.7% | 40% |
| 3 | TEN | 16-25 | 3.4 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 5.9% | 46% |
| 4 | MIA | 27-17 | 19.2 | 3 | 5 | 42 | 2 | 15.6% | 69% |
| 5 | BAL | 25-31 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 50 | 0 | 11.8% | 45% |
| 6 | HOU | 31-3 | 9.8 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 1 | 16.7% | 50% |
| 7 | SF | 30-18 | 11.5 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 1 | 11.5% | 63% |
| 8 | TEN | 31-34 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8.3% | 49% |
| 9 | NYJ | 45-30 | 3.8 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 | 3.4% | 61% |
| 10 | JAX | 23-17 | 1.6 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6.1% | 55% |
| 11 | BUF | 41-15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | 41% |
| 12 | TB | 31-38 | 1.8 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 4.7% | 57% |
| 13 | HOU | 31-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.5% | 43% |
| 15 | NE | 27-17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8.3% | 77% |
| 16 | ARI | 22-16 | 6.2 | 2 | 4 | 42 | 0 | 14.3% | 90% |
| 17 | LV | 20-23 | 5.8 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 20.8% | 57% |
| 18 | JAX | 11-26 | 4.7 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 10.3% | 39% |
| Receptions | 24 |
| Targets | 45 |
| Receiving yards | 316 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 4.68 |
| Yards per target | 7.02 |
| Catch rate | 53.33% |
| Snap share | 54.88% |
| Target share | 9.33% |
| Air-yards share | 10.4% |
| WOPR | 0.213 |
| RACR | 1.414 |
| Average depth of target | 9.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.9 |
| Total YAC | 150 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 96.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.52 |
| Red-zone targets | 9 |
| Red-zone target share | 13.2% |
| End-zone target share | 19.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.42 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.58 |
The offense threw it 521 times. He took 8.98% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Michael Pittman | 25.75% |
| Zach Pascal | 13.77% |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 11.38% |
| Jonathan Taylor | 10.18% |
| Mo Alie-Cox ← | 8.98% |
| Jack Doyle | 8.58% |
3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 13.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.6 in those and 3.74 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 2 against MIN — 16.1 PPR on 6 targets and a 24% target share, in a game that finished 28-11. His worst was Week 5 against CLE at 0, on 1 targets, final score 23-32. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 4.3; in the 8 decided by more, 6.9. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 5.1 points per game. He scored 5.74, 15.3% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | 20-27 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 4.3% | 39% |
| 2 | MIN | 28-11 | 16.1 | 5 | 6 | 111 | 0 | 24% | 67% |
| 3 | NYJ | 36-7 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 50 | 1 | 12% | 59% |
| 4 | CHI | 19-11 | 8.3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 7.1% | 46% |
| 5 | CLE | 23-32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.1% | 38% |
| 8 | DET | 41-21 | 6.7 | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 12.1% | 42% |
| 9 | BAL | 10-24 | 7.3 | 3 | 3 | 43 | 0 | 7.5% | 51% |
| 10 | TEN | 34-17 | 4.9 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 11.1% | 66% |
| 11 | GB | 34-31 | 1.6 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 8.6% | 51% |
| 12 | TEN | 26-45 | 3.9 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 4.8% | 51% |
| 13 | HOU | 26-20 | 5.3 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 14.3% | 64% |
| 14 | LV | 44-27 | 1.9 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3.7% | 33% |
| 15 | HOU | 27-20 | 3.4 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 6.9% | 45% |
| 16 | PIT | 24-28 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 2.9% | 33% |
| Receptions | 31 |
| Targets | 39 |
| Receiving yards | 394 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 5.74 |
| Yards per target | 10.1 |
| Catch rate | 79.49% |
| Snap share | 48.93% |
| Target share | 8.74% |
| Air-yards share | 8.58% |
| WOPR | 0.192 |
| RACR | 1.723 |
| Average depth of target | 6.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.8 |
| Total YAC | 182 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 104.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.91 |
| Red-zone targets | 7 |
| Red-zone target share | 8% |
| End-zone target share | 8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.74 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.26 |
The offense threw it 552 times. He took 7.29% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| T.Y. Hilton | 17.38% |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 14.21% |
| Zach Pascal | 13.27% |
| Michael Pittman | 11.4% |
| Trey Burton | 8.79% |
| Mo Alie-Cox ← | 7.29% |
6 of his 14 games were blowouts, 59.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.92 in those and 4.27 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Mo Alie-Cox →