WR · IND · GWTTKB

Alec Pierce — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 12.22 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 85.7, usage worth 9.6.

26 years old · 4 seasons of experience · 2022 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.
ADP 85.7
Consensus across 4 books, standard deviation 13.7, 30.8 picks between cheapest and priciest. Cheapest on espn, priciest on cbs.
SLEEPER93.7
ESPN97.9
YAHOO84
UNDERDOG87.8
CBS67.1
FFA102

Draft-room facts

Goes aroundRound 8, pick 2 in a 12-team draft
Positional rankWR34
Bye week13
ADP standard deviation13.7 picks

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 153.6 points, 9.4 per game — 49.4 catches, 796 yards, 4.1 TDs. That is WR5, 102 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 7 points per game to a ceiling of 14.1, with the median at 9.4. Boom rate 50%, bust rate 26%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

He goes at 85.7 on consensus and our board has him 102. We rank him 16.3 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.

Our written view

a genuinely extreme, unsustainable efficiency level on very low volume the past two seasons (20+ yards/catch each year) that will almost certainly come down in raw rate even as the team pays him like they expect a much larger role. Recovering from foot surgery adds real uncertainty about both his health and how much practice-rep chemistry he'll have built with the QB by Week 1.

watch · medium conviction · 2026-08

The offense he plays in, 2026

Indianapolis Colts returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1. Daniel Jones at quarterback, Shane Steichen as head coach, Jim Bob Cooter calling it. The offense projects to 32.5 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 26.1 rushes.

In: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (wr3), Deion Burks (wr5), Seth McGowan (rb3), Anderson Castle (rb4). Out: Michael Pittman Jr (wr1), Adonai Mitchell (wr4), Ameer Abdullah (rb3).

His own projected target share for 2026 is 17%, with a bear case of 16.5% and a bull case of 19% and a full range of 15.6% to 19.8%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.

The projected target split across the offense:

Josh Downs20.1%
Tyler Warren19.1%
Alec Pierce 17%
Jonathan Taylor10.1%
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine10%
Deion Burks4.8%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

What the offense looks like: The Colts seriously need Daniel Jones to BE THAT GUY. Taylor, Downs, and especially Alec Pierce rely on having a highly productive passing game that helps lift the entire offense as whole. Tyler Warren has shown flashes of being the next George Kittle, really awesome player.

Key additions: Colts brought in WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine in free agency. Westbrook-Ikhine was a highly dynamic WR while in Tennessee. Could be nohting, but could help.

Key departures: WR Michael Pittman Jr traded to Steelers. QB Anthony Richardson requested a trade & will not play again for the Colts.

Notes: Anthony Richardson will be traded or released. Daniel Jones on track for full recovery from torn achilles & landed extension. Very positive for offense. Jonathan Taylor aging but HIGHLY productive. Alec Pierce lands MASSVIVE 4 year contract & Colts invested in him as their WR1. Josh Downs is primed for an increase workload & could truly break out in 2026. Michael Pittman Jr. traded to Steelers. Tyler Warren is a top TE in dynasty & could have a MASSIVE season next year.

How the volume number was reached: Same QB Daniel Jones returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (32.1 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.5 att/g.

How that share projection was built

25 historical comps for WRs age ~25, prior share 15.8%, same team, OC continuity. Distribution: median 20.1%, p25-p75 [17.9%, 23.8%], tails [15.7%, 25.7%]. Closest comps: George Pickens 2022→2023 (PIT: 16.0%→24.2%); Michael Gallup 2021→2022 (DAL: 19.7%→16.8%); Marquez Valdes-Scantling 2020→2021 (GB: 15.6%→14.9%). Adjustment: -5% from td_luck_breakout (TD regression risk)

self-anchored 58% to own 15.8% role (3yr), 42% to comp median 20.1%

The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.

Offensive environment: IND rates 23.3 against a league average of 23, 0.3 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season+1.1 · neutral
Weeks 1–6+4.7 · easier
Weeks 12–17-0.8 · neutral
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)+2.9 · easier

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

What happened when he missed time

From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.

SeasonGames missedMain beneficiaryTheir PPR gain
20252Ashton Dulin+4.2
Read the full Alec Pierce study →

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved +86.6% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, WRs crash the following year 40% of the time (hold 60%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 40% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Elijah Moore20247.173%-32.2%
Tee Higgins202311.569%+22.9%
Rashod Bateman202410.969%-17.8%
Jerry Jeudy20238.967%+55.8%
Christian Kirk202312.566%-15.9%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

02,0004,0002023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2022-03 to 2026-07. Up 244% across the series, peaking at 4,610.

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Drafted2022, round 2, pick 53 by IND
CollegeCincinnati
Age at draft22
Height6′3″
Weight211 lb
40-yard dash4.41s
Vertical40.5″
Broad jump129″
3-cone7.13s
Shuttle4.28s

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game8.6
Week-to-week variation0.9
Boom rate25%
Bust rate30.8%
Games missed per season1
Injury historyConcussion
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score0.19

That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · IND · 15 games

His best game was Week 18 against HOU — 29.2 PPR on 7 targets and a 21.2% target share, in a game that finished 30-38. His worst was Week 17 against JAX at 0, on 5 targets, final score 17-23. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11.9; in the 6 decided by more, 12.8. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 9.6 points per game. He scored 12.22, 27.8% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 4 against 2.13 expected, a gap of 1.9.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1MIA33-84.61336010.3%79%
2DEN29-2810.84568015.2%90%
3TEN41-2010.74567020%54%
6ARI31-276.82448013.3%81%
7LAC38-2414.851098031.3%87%
8TEN38-148.92569017.9%81%
9PIT20-2717.5613115027.1%91%
10ATL31-2518.44784126.9%95%
12KC20-233.6122606.5%96%
13HOU16-2017.84578120%96%
14JAX19-36135880022.2%83%
15SEA16-182.6111603.8%100%
16SF27-4824.64486211.1%97%
17JAX17-230050017.2%91%
18HOU30-3829.247132221.2%68%

Production

Receptions47
Targets84
Receiving yards1,003
Touchdowns6
Points per game12.22
Yards per target11.94
Catch rate55.95%

Role

Snap share85.93%
Target share17.6%
Air-yards share40.61%
WOPR0.547
RACR0.713

Efficiency

Average depth of target18.9
Yards after catch per reception3.7
Yards before catch per reception17.6
Total YAC174
Broken tackles1
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted112.4
Receiving EPA per game3.72

Scoring position

Red-zone targets9
Red-zone target share11.7%
End-zone target share34.6%
Expected receiving TDs2.13
Actual receiving TDs4
Receiving TD luck1.87

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:

Points per game22 of 44
Yards per target1 of 44
Target share41 of 44
Air-yards share5 of 44

Who else ate

The offense threw it 546 times. He took 15.91% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Tyler Warren21.21%
Michael Pittman21.02%
Josh Downs16.67%
Alec Pierce 15.91%
Jonathan Taylor10.42%
Mo Alie-Cox3.79%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Daniel Jones105911.3911.6818.85%
Philip Rivers3109.0710.210.7%
Riley Leonard21521.114.1321.7%

Blowouts against close games

5 of his 15 games were blowouts, 33.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 12.36 in those and 11.86 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2024 · IND · 16 games

His best game was Week 17 against NYG — 24.2 PPR on 9 targets and a 24.3% target share, in a game that finished 33-45. His worst was Week 15 against DEN at 0, on 4 targets, final score 13-31. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 12 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.5; in the 4 decided by more, 11.8. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 7.6 points per game. He scored 10.09, 32% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 4 against 1.88 expected, a gap of 2.1.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1HOU27-2921.533125115.8%84%
2GB10-1616.65756122.6%95%
3CHI21-165.41244011.1%77%
4PIT27-241.912907.1%83%
5JAX34-3722.43313416.7%74%
6TEN20-170040011.1%89%
7MIA16-103.52515022.7%79%
8HOU20-232.11411012.9%78%
9MIN13-217.13341011.1%89%
10BUF20-3018.14781120%86%
11NYJ28-2710.43474014.3%80%
12DET6-244.91439016%73%
13NE25-249.62616125%71%
15DEN13-310040011.1%46%
17NYG33-4524.269122124.3%95%
18JAX26-2313.7225715.1%82%

Production

Receptions37
Targets69
Receiving yards824
Touchdowns7
Points per game10.09
Yards per target11.94
Catch rate53.62%

Role

Snap share80.06%
Target share14.81%
Air-yards share28.14%
WOPR0.419
RACR0.578

Efficiency

Average depth of target21.5
Yards after catch per reception3.2
Yards before catch per reception19.1
Total YAC118
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted106.2
Receiving EPA per game2.52

Scoring position

Red-zone targets6
Red-zone target share9.4%
End-zone target share23.1%
Expected receiving TDs1.88
Actual receiving TDs4
Receiving TD luck2.12

Who else ate

The offense threw it 513 times. He took 14.05% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Michael Pittman22.61%
Josh Downs21.79%
Alec Pierce 14.05%
Adonai Mitchell11.2%
Jonathan Taylor6.31%
Kylen Granson6.31%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Anthony Richardson9398.229.7416.83%
Joe Flacco73012.4914.812.2%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 16 games were blowouts, 3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.45 in those and 9.52 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2023 · IND · 17 games

His best game was Week 13 against TEN — 19 PPR on 6 targets and a 14.6% target share, in a game that finished 31-28. His worst was Week 18 against HOU at 0, on 4 targets, final score 19-23. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 14 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.1; in the 8 decided by more, 3.9. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 6.6 points per game. He scored 5.61, 14.6% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 1.48 expected, a gap of -1.5.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1JAX21-311.513507.7%92%
2HOU31-204.8222806.5%100%
3BAL22-197.33743016.7%96%
4LA23-294.8123808.3%91%
5TEN23-162121008.3%98%
6JAX20-375.53625011.5%74%
7CLE38-398.33353013.6%100%
8NO27-387.13541013.2%94%
9CAR27-13002008.3%100%
10NE10-63.1112103.8%96%
12TB27-206.74627015%95%
13TEN31-281936100114.6%99%
14CIN14-344.2232207.9%91%
15PIT30-132.31513018.5%97%
16ATL10-2963730020%100%
17LV23-2012.8115815%98%
18HOU19-230040017.4%97%

Production

Receptions32
Targets65
Receiving yards514
Touchdowns2
Points per game5.61
Yards per target7.91
Catch rate49.23%

Role

Snap share95.18%
Target share11.55%
Air-yards share21.89%
WOPR0.329
RACR0.62

Efficiency

Average depth of target14.9
Yards after catch per reception3
Yards before catch per reception13
Total YAC97
Broken tackles1
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted79.9
Receiving EPA per game1.01

Scoring position

Red-zone targets6
Red-zone target share9.2%
End-zone target share29.4%
Expected receiving TDs1.48
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-1.48

Who else ate

The offense threw it 574 times. He took 11.9% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Michael Pittman28.57%
Josh Downs17.95%
Alec Pierce 11.9%
Kylen Granson9.16%
Zack Moss6.78%
Will Mallory4.76%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Gardner Minshew15605.947.8512.02%
Anthony Richardson253.158.68%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 18.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.5 in those and 7.11 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2022 · IND · 16 games

His best game was Week 13 against DAL — 18.6 PPR on 8 targets and a 22.9% target share, in a game that finished 19-54. His worst was Week 15 against MIN at 0, on 5 targets, final score 36-39. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.7; in the 5 decided by more, 7.7. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 8.3 points per game. He scored 7.02, 15.8% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1HOU20-20002004.1%51%
3KC20-179.13561013.9%45%
4TEN17-24124680016.7%44%
5DEN12-916.18981025%59%
6JAX34-2713.93749112.5%65%
7TEN10-196.7343709.8%97%
8WAS16-179.53565021.7%57%
9NE3-263.3122307.1%71%
10LV25-20002007.4%65%
11PHI16-175.83828025.8%71%
12PIT17-24002006.3%70%
13DAL19-5418.64886122.9%71%
15MIN36-390050016.1%77%
16LAC3-205.63426014.3%73%
17NYG10-384.53515018.5%83%
18HOU31-327.23442011.8%64%

Production

Receptions41
Targets78
Receiving yards593
Touchdowns2
Points per game7.02
Yards per target7.6
Catch rate52.56%

Role

Snap share66.44%
Target share14.62%
Air-yards share26.24%
WOPR0.403
RACR0.767

Efficiency

Average depth of target11.7
Yards after catch per reception2.8
Yards before catch per reception11.7
Total YAC113
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted75.4
Receiving EPA per game1.21

Scoring position

Red-zone targets6
Red-zone target share9.5%
End-zone target share14.3%
Expected receiving TDs1.43
Actual receiving TDs1
Receiving TD luck-0.43

Who else ate

The offense threw it 604 times. He took 13.47% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Michael Pittman24.35%
Parris Campbell15.72%
Alec Pierce 13.47%
Jonathan Taylor6.91%
Kylen Granson6.91%
Jelani Woods6.91%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Matt Ryan11587.477.2814.59%
Sam Ehlinger4166.139.0614.77%
Nick Foles145.66.514.3%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 16 games were blowouts, 28.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8 in those and 6.69 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

Ask the Coach about Alec Pierce →
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