Seth McGowan
Overview
Board Oct 12Week 5 rest-of-season review, Oct 12, 2026. The three reads are where our backtested model, the betting market and his 2026 production each place him at RB; our board rank is the call.
Where his stats say he could finish from here: RB61 to RB76. Our rank stays the call.
2026 so far5 games
- share of IND's carries up from 7% to 20% (last 2 games vs the three before)
- carries + targets a game up from 2.3 to 7 (last 2 games vs the three before)
- snap share up from 11% to 28% (last 2 games vs the three before)
- 0 of IND's 14 carries inside the 5
- 4.2 carries + targets a game (64th of 66 RBs)
Ranked among 66 qualified RBs this season.
80% range 1.7–6.2 half-PPR points a game. Biggest inputs: draft capital -0.9, college seasons -0.5, Week 5 sportsbook lines -0.4, rushing yards -0.3. The model informs the rank; it does not set it.
Week 6
Lines Oct 14IND
TENUpdated Oct 14, 2026, built on a IND team total of 25.75. Rank is among every RB we project this week.
Allowed to RBs per game across 5 games. Best games against them: Breece Hall (W1, 19.8 PPR, 22 car 102 ry, 2/2 16 rec); Derrick Henry (W4, 15.9 PPR, 23 car 73 ry, 2/2 6 rec); Cam Skattebo (W3, 13 PPR, 20 car 60 ry, 3/4 40 rec).
EPA ranks entering Week 6: #28 against the pass, #12 against the run (1 = best defense).
Runs by directionRB rushing points allowed a game
Big number: receiving fantasy points TEN allows a game to RBs in that zone. # = its rank of 32. Green tag = Seth McGowan's share of his targets in that zone this season. Depth is air yards at the catch point; 5 games, through Week 5. Tap a zone for the detail.
5-16 rush, 1-3 rec on 1 tgt
Game log
2026 · through W5Every gametap a game for the detail
IND +3 (closing) · total 48.5 · indoors · 7 days rest
Projected 1.6 (RB71) · IND +6 (closing) · total 46.5 · 71°F, wind 10 mph · 7 days rest · prime time
Projected 0.6 (RB91) · IND +1.5 (closing) · total 41.5 · indoors · 7 days rest · division game
Projected 1.4 (RB72) · IND -4.5 (closing) · total 46.5 · 70°F, wind 7 mph · 7 days rest
Projected 2.5 (RB56) · IND +3 (closing) · total 41.5 · 7 days rest
D# = the opponent's rank against RBs entering that week (1 = stingiest, 32 = softest). Finish = his rank at RB that week.
Usage
What changedlast 3 full games vs. before
| W1, W2 | W3, W4, W5 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snap share | 8.5% | 23.7% | +15.2 |
| Carry share | 3.2% | 17.9% | +14.7 |
| Target share | 1.7% | 3.1% | +1.4 |
| Carries a game | 1.0 | 5.0 | +4.0 |
| Targets a game | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 |
Games he left injured are left out of both sides.
IND backfieldshare of team carries, 2026
Season to date, games each player played.
Role details2026, through Week 5
Advanced
Percentile against the RBs on our charts (each stat's minimum is next to it), 2026 through Week 5. 50 is the middle of the pack. Tap a bubble for his rank.
Expected vs. actualPPR, from this season's play-by-play
0 TDs on 0.41 expected. Expected points price every target by depth and field position and every carry by field position. Do touchdowns regress? ›
Splits
As a receiver2026 charted plays, through Week 5
| Situation | Tgt | Rec-Yds-TD | Yds/tgt | EPA/tgt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All targets | 4 | 3-10-0 | 2.55.4 | -0.55-0.02 |
| Third down25% of targets | 1 | 1-0-0 | 0.06.5 | -1.750.08 |
| Score within 750% of targets | 2 | 1-7-0 | 3.55.3 | 0.01-0.08 |
| Trailing by 8+50% of targets | 2 | 2-3-0 | 1.55.6 | -1.110.11 |
| Vs. the blitz25% of targets | 1 | 0-0-0 | 0.05.3 | -0.47-0.04 |
| No blitz75% of targets | 3 | 3-10-0 | 3.35.4 | -0.58-0.01 |
| Play action25% of targets | 1 | 0-0-0 | 0.05.9 | -0.470.08 |
| With motion75% of targets | 3 | 2-7-0 | 2.35.3 | -0.58-0.03 |
Small grey number = every RB in that situation. Green or red = a clear gap either way. 3 of his 4 charted targets were catchable; 1 drop, 1 of 1 contested caught.
As a runner2026 charted carries, through Week 5
| Situation | Car | Yds-TD | YPC | Success |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All carries | 17 | 61-0 | 3.64.1 | 35%39% |
| Red zone18% of carries | 3 | 8-0 | 2.72.6 | 33%40% |
| Inside the 1012% of carries | 2 | 2-0 | 1.01.7 | 0%47% |
| Score within 771% of carries | 12 | 44-0 | 3.74.1 | 33%38% |
| Trailing by 8+18% of carries | 3 | 4-0 | 1.34.1 | 33%41% |
| Leading by 8+12% of carries | 2 | 13-0 | 6.54.5 | 50%40% |
| Light box (6 or fewer)35% of carries | 6 | 15-0 | 2.54.5 | 17%40% |
| Stacked box (8+)12% of carries | 2 | 10-0 | 5.03.0 | 50%39% |
| RPO6% of carries | 1 | 0-0 | 0.04.2 | 0%42% |
Box counts from FTN charting. Small grey number = every RB in that situation.
Team
INDIndianapolis Colts offense, 2026 through Week 5. Rank 1 = most. Scheme rates from FTN charting through Week 5.
Game by gamescore, implied total, pass rate (over expected), QB
| Week | Score | Implied | Pass rate | QB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1vs BAL | 23-41 | 22.8 | 62%−6.4 | Jones31 att |
| W2vs KC | 30-30 | 20.3 | 49%−13.9 | Jones31 att |
| W3vs HOU | 19-17 | 20.0 | 56%−0.6 | Jones36 att |
| W4vs WAS | 30-13 | 25.5 | 56%−2.1 | Jones34 att |
| W5vs PIT | 22-34 | 19.3 | 65%+2.1 | Jones44 att |
Depth chartRB, Oct 14
Scheduleeach defense's current rank vs RBs
Green = soft, red = stingy (1 = stingiest, 32 = softest), ranked on fantasy points allowed to RBs so far. Gold underline = fantasy playoffs. Does strength of schedule matter? ›
Head coach: Shane Steichen. QB: Daniel Jones (most pass attempts, Week 5).
Charts
Seth McGowan is highlighted on each chart. Swipe for more; tap a dot for the player. Every chart saves and shares as an image on the Charts page.
Career
Season by season
| Year | G | Rushing / receiving | Pts/g | xFP/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026IND | 5 | 17-61-0 rush3-10-0 rec on 4 tgt | 1.7RB77 | 3.1−5.1 |
Under points a game: his rank at RB in points a game (8+ games; 2026: 2+ games). xFP = expected PPR a game from his usage; under it, the season's points over expected. Routes = share of team dropbacks he ran a route (through 2025).
Health
No injury designation. Not on the Sleeper injury list as of Oct 10 and not on the Week 6 practice report so far.
2026 injury reportofficial, week by week
✓ = not listed. Letters = game status (Q, D, O) or worst practice that week (LP limited, DNP did not practice). Tap a week for the detail.
Teammates on the report
Our current notes first, then Sleeper designations. What happens when a starter is ruled out? ›
Value
Market Oct 10Market value on a 0–10,000 scale, through Oct 10, 2026. Faint stretches are estimates between real readings. Gold = peak.
Teal dot = today (2,397). Box = the middle half of outcomes, white line = the median, whiskers = 10th to 90th percentile. RBs about 25 valued near #248 overall: real 1-year moves since 2022, weighted by exact age and market rank (about 93 players' worth).
170.1 overall, RB88. ESPN 170.1 · Underdog 215.0
Profile
Athletic profilepercentile vs RBs at the combine since 2010
College production
| Year | G | Rec-Yds-TD | Yds share | Dominator |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Kentucky | 11 | 19-126-0 | 6.0% | 3.0 |
| 2024New Mexico State | 12 | 23-277-3 | 16.1% | 20.6 |
| 2020Oklahoma | 6 | 10-131-1 | 6.0% | 6.0 |
Share = his share of his team's receiving yards. Dominator = average of his share of receiving yards and TDs.