Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 6.16 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 169.9, usage worth 6.9.
| ESPN | 169.9 |
| UNDERDOG | 216 |
| FFA | 341 |
| Goes around | Round 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR79 |
Our board has him at 41 points, 2.5 per game — 15.3 catches, 200 yards, 0.7 TDs. That is WR6, 293 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 0.1 points per game to a ceiling of 4.9, with the median at 2.5. Boom rate 97%, bust rate 94%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 169.9 on consensus and our board has him 293. We rank him 123.1 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
New York Giants returns 2 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, te1, hc, oc. Jaxson Dart at quarterback, Jim Harbaugh as head coach, Matt Nagy calling it. The offense projects to 30.3 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 27.7 rushes.
In: Darnell Mooney (wr2), Malachi Fields (wr4), Calvin Austin III (wr5), Isaiah Likely (te1). Out: Jaxon Dart (qb), Russell Wilson (qb), Wan'Dale Robinson (wr2), Gunner Olszewski (wr4), Daniel Bellinger (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 6.4%, with a bear case of 4.2% and a bull case of 7.6% and a full range of 3.2% to 8.9%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Malik Nabers | 25.9% |
| Darius Slayton | 11.2% |
| Darnell Mooney | 10.4% |
| Malachi Fields | 8.6% |
| Theo Johnson | 8.2% |
| Cam Skattebo | 7.5% |
What the offense looks like: NY still reamins a question mark but there is a lot of potential in this offense if Jaxson Dart turns into the franchise QB. He has a strong arm, is mobile, and plays with a certain type of swagger not all QBs play with. Despite what Ravens fans say, bringing Harbaugh & Nagy into NY is a very good thing. A future HOF coach that is putting his reputation on the line for this team to succeed. Harbaugh has mainly focused on the defense so far, which could imply he thinks the offense is in a good spot, but we will have to see.
Key additions: Darnell Mooney WR from ATL, Calvin Austin III WR from Steelers, Drafted WR Malachi Fields 3rd round, signed TE Isaiah Likely in free agency, New Coach Jim Harbaugh & new OC Matt Nagy.
Key departures: Russell Wilson left to free agency. Won'Dale Robinson left in free agency to the Tennessee Titans (opens up significant amount of targets)
Notes: Giants fired Daboll & brought in Harbaugh. Harbaugh should revamp offense. Brought it Isaiah Likely from Baltimore who seriously hurts Theo Johnson dynasty value (likely should be good). NY did not draft RB & Skattebo will be the starter week 1 of 2026 unless they add someone. He could have a monster season with his Jaxson Dart connection growing. Jaxson Dart gets to play with Malik Nabers for the first time & connection should be electric. Darnell Mooney is a great signing & is on a 1 year prove it deal in NY. If Dart play continues, Mooney will have value.
How the volume number was reached: New QB Jaxson Dart, avg 24.2 att/g over 2025; Regressed 65% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30.2 att/g; New OC Matt Nagy — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Jim Harbaugh.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~25, prior share 12.5%, team change, OC change, QB change. Distribution: median 8.2%, p25-p75 [2.6%, 11.5%], tails [0.0%, 14.8%]. Closest comps: Julio Jones 2022→2023 (TB→PHI: 13.3%→8.2%); Nelson Agholor 2022→2023 (NE→BAL: 13.8%→10.1%); Olamide Zaccheaus 2022→2023 (ATL→PHI: 14.8%→5.6%).
arrival self-anchored 41% to own 12.5% role (3yr)
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: NYG rates 21.8 against a league average of 23, 1.1 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +4.4 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | +8.3 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | +5.7 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +7.9 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2 | Scott Miller | +1.1 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -27.4% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, WRs recover only 15% of the time (keep falling 85%).
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Guyton | 2023 | 3.6 | 80% | -62.1% |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 2024 | 4.6 | 76% | +27.6% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2023 | 3.5 | 76% | +246.6% |
| Marquez Callaway | 2022 | 3.8 | 74% | -19.2% |
| Hunter Renfrow | 2022 | 7.9 | 72% | -32.4% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2022, round 4, pick 138 by PIT |
| College | Memphis |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| Height | 5′8″ |
| Weight | 170 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.32s |
| Vertical | 39″ |
| Broad jump | 135″ |
| 3-cone | 6.65s |
| Shuttle | 4.07s |
| Career PPR per game | 4.7 |
| Week-to-week variation | 1.1 |
| Boom rate | 10.5% |
| Bust rate | 42.1% |
| Games missed per season | 0.7 |
| Injury history | Shoulder, Hamstring |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | -0.22 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 1 against NYJ — 17 PPR on 6 targets and a 20.7% target share, in a game that finished 34-32. His worst was Week 15 against MIA at 0, on 1 targets, final score 28-15. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.9; in the 6 decided by more, 2.5. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 6.9 points per game. He scored 6.16, 13.6% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 2 against 0.74 expected, a gap of 1.3.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | 34-32 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 70 | 1 | 20.7% | 80% |
| 2 | SEA | 17-31 | 3.2 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 12.9% | 92% |
| 3 | NE | 21-14 | 12.4 | 3 | 5 | 34 | 1 | 22.7% | 72% |
| 4 | MIN | 24-21 | 3.3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 9.1% | 51% |
| 8 | GB | 25-35 | 6.8 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 0 | 18.8% | 78% |
| 9 | IND | 27-20 | 10.6 | 5 | 6 | 56 | 0 | 17.1% | 56% |
| 10 | LAC | 10-25 | 3.4 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 25% | 73% |
| 11 | CIN | 34-12 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3.4% | 29% |
| 12 | CHI | 28-31 | 7.6 | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 | 16.1% | 46% |
| 13 | BUF | 7-26 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9.1% | 49% |
| 14 | BAL | 27-22 | 4.1 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 0 | 6.1% | 31% |
| 15 | MIA | 28-15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.7% | 27% |
| 16 | DET | 29-24 | 1.8 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2.6% | 16% |
| 18 | BAL | 26-24 | 14.5 | 3 | 7 | 55 | 1 | 15.9% | 49% |
| Receptions | 31 |
| Targets | 55 |
| Receiving yards | 372 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 6.16 |
| Yards per target | 6.76 |
| Catch rate | 56.36% |
| Snap share | 53.5% |
| Target share | 13.09% |
| Air-yards share | 25.46% |
| WOPR | 0.374 |
| RACR | 0.929 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.3 |
| Red-zone targets | 4 |
| Red-zone target share | 5.2% |
| End-zone target share | 10.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.74 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.26 |
The offense threw it 550 times. He took 10.58% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| DK Metcalf | 19.04% |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 16.35% |
| Calvin Austin III ← | 10.58% |
| Jonnu Smith | 10.38% |
| Pat Freiermuth | 10.38% |
| Jaylen Warren | 8.65% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 12 | 49 | 6.42 | 6.76 | 13.64% |
| Mason Rudolph | 2 | 6 | 4.55 | 6.83 | 9.75% |
2 of his 14 games were blowouts, 1.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 0.75 in those and 8.91 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 8 against NYG — 20.4 PPR on 4 targets and a 14.8% target share, in a game that finished 26-18. His worst was Week 18 against CIN at 0, on 1 targets, final score 17-19. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.1; in the 7 decided by more, 8.6. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 5.9 points per game. He scored 7.11, 16.9% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 1.22 expected, a gap of -1.2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | 18-10 | 1.7 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 9.1% | 41% |
| 2 | DEN | 13-6 | 1.6 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 11.1% | 45% |
| 3 | LAC | 20-10 | 19.5 | 4 | 5 | 95 | 1 | 16.1% | 54% |
| 4 | IND | 24-27 | 2.7 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 3.1% | 56% |
| 5 | DAL | 17-20 | 1.6 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7.7% | 76% |
| 6 | LV | 32-13 | 5.6 | 2 | 5 | 36 | 0 | 21.7% | 36% |
| 7 | NYJ | 37-15 | 4.6 | 1 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 14.8% | 50% |
| 8 | NYG | 26-18 | 20.4 | 3 | 4 | 54 | 1 | 14.8% | 58% |
| 10 | WAS | 28-27 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 0 | 23.1% | 45% |
| 11 | BAL | 18-16 | 0.9 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 6.3% | 33% |
| 12 | CLE | 19-24 | 16.8 | 3 | 3 | 78 | 1 | 12% | 58% |
| 13 | CIN | 44-38 | 10.9 | 2 | 2 | 29 | 1 | 5.6% | 23% |
| 14 | CLE | 27-14 | 1.4 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 16.7% | 35% |
| 15 | PHI | 13-27 | 11.5 | 5 | 5 | 65 | 0 | 23.8% | 81% |
| 16 | BAL | 17-34 | 10.5 | 4 | 5 | 65 | 0 | 19.2% | 80% |
| 17 | KC | 10-29 | 7.1 | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 14.3% | 75% |
| 18 | CIN | 17-19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.4% | 66% |
| Receptions | 36 |
| Targets | 58 |
| Receiving yards | 548 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 7.11 |
| Yards per target | 9.45 |
| Catch rate | 62.07% |
| Snap share | 53.65% |
| Target share | 13.11% |
| Air-yards share | 18.22% |
| WOPR | 0.325 |
| RACR | 0.745 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.42 |
| Red-zone targets | 5 |
| Red-zone target share | 8.2% |
| End-zone target share | 12% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.22 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.22 |
The offense threw it 498 times. He took 12.64% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| George Pickens | 22.44% |
| Pat Freiermuth | 16.99% |
| Calvin Austin III ← | 12.64% |
| Najee Harris | 10.46% |
| Jaylen Warren | 10.24% |
| Van Jefferson | 8.71% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 11 | 41 | 8.01 | 9.29 | 14% |
| Justin Fields | 6 | 17 | 5.45 | 9.82 | 11.47% |
4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 23% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.95 in those and 6.06 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 3 against LV — 15.2 PPR on 6 targets and a 22.2% target share, in a game that finished 23-18. His worst was Week 17 against SEA at 0, on 0 targets, final score 30-23. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 14 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 2.1; in the 5 decided by more, 5.8. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 3.7 points per game. He scored 3.29, 9.8% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | 7-30 | 9.7 | 6 | 6 | 37 | 0 | 13.3% | 56% |
| 2 | CLE | 26-22 | 1.8 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 13.8% | 76% |
| 3 | LV | 23-18 | 15.2 | 2 | 6 | 72 | 1 | 22.2% | 73% |
| 4 | HOU | 6-30 | 5.9 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 18.5% | 90% |
| 5 | BAL | 17-10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.2% | 56% |
| 7 | LA | 24-17 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 12% |
| 8 | JAX | 10-20 | 4.9 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 5% | 27% |
| 9 | TEN | 20-16 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.4% | 26% |
| 10 | GB | 23-19 | 1.9 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4.5% | 20% |
| 11 | CLE | 10-13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 17% |
| 12 | CIN | 16-10 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3.1% | 25% |
| 13 | ARI | 10-24 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3.7% | 15% |
| 14 | NE | 18-21 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 29% |
| 16 | CIN | 34-11 | 6.7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8% | 19% |
| 17 | SEA | 30-23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 19% |
| 18 | BAL | 17-10 | 0.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 27% |
| Receptions | 17 |
| Targets | 30 |
| Receiving yards | 180 |
| Carries | 11 |
| Rushing yards | 57 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 3.29 |
| Yards per target | 6 |
| Catch rate | 56.67% |
| Yards per carry | 5.18 |
| Snap share | 36.69% |
| Target share | 6.17% |
| Air-yards share | 11.42% |
| WOPR | 0.172 |
| RACR | 0.444 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.2 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.21 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 2% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.28 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.72 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.12 |
The offense threw it 506 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| George Pickens | 21.9% |
| Diontae Johnson | 17.98% |
| Jaylen Warren | 15.29% |
| Allen Robinson | 10.12% |
| Pat Freiermuth | 9.71% |
| Najee Harris | 7.85% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 10 | 25 | 3.71 | 6.04 | 8.2% |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 3 | 3 | 2.7 | 9.67 | 2.9% |
| Mason Rudolph | 3 | 2 | 2.5 | 0 | 2.67% |
3 of his 16 games were blowouts, 42.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.43 in those and 2.14 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Calvin Austin III →