Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 11.76 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 132.3, usage worth 10.6.
30 years old · 7 seasons of experience · 2019 draft class
| SLEEPER | 139 |
| ESPN | 136.5 |
| YAHOO | 127.7 |
| UNDERDOG | 127.3 |
| CBS | 126 |
| FFA | 138 |
| Goes around | Round 11, pick 12 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR51 |
| ADP standard deviation | 6.4 picks |
Our board has him at 133.9 points, 7.9 per game — 47 catches, 611 yards, 3.2 TDs. That is WR5, 137 overall.
He goes at 132.3 on consensus and our board has him 137. We rank him 4.7 picks worse than the room drafts him, so at ADP he is mildly overpriced. That is an objection to the price and not to the player — if he falls past his slot he can be exactly the right pick.
San Francisco 49ers returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1. Brock Purdy at quarterback, Kyle Shanahan as head coach, Klay Kubiak calling it. The offense projects to 33.7 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 27.7 rushes.
In: Mike Evans (wr1), De'Zhaun Stribling (wr2), Christian Kirk (wr4), Jacob Cowing (wr7), Kaelon Black (rb2). Out: Jauan Jennings (wr1), Kendrick Bourne (wr3), Brian Robinson Jr. (rb2).
The projected target split across the offense:
| De'Zhaun Stribling | 16.1% |
| Mike Evans | 11.8% |
| George Kittle | 11.5% |
| Ricky Pearsall | 10.4% |
| Christian Kirk | 9.2% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 8.9% |
Key additions: Signed WR Mike Evans from Bucs in free agency. Signed WR Christian Kirk in free agency. Drafted WR De'Zhaun Stribling in the 2nd round from Ole Miss. Drafted RB Kaelon Black in the 3rd round.
Key departures: WR Brandon Aiyuk (who did not play all of 2025 due to injury) is gone. WR Jauan Jennings is also gone. He has functioned as 49ers WR 1/2 for the past two seasons. RB Brian Robinson Jr left to ATL in free agency.
Notes: Stribling round 2 has opportunity to break out early. Mike Evans signing in free agency. Should be alpha WR1 but aging & injury risk. Potential sell high but should produce in 2026. Drafted RB Kaelon Black round 3 from Indiana. Black was not even invited to the NFL combine, but 49ers LOVE him. Could assume RB2 role immediately if he beats out Jordan James. Ricky Pearsall has an opportunity to break out as a WR2 but needs to stay healthy enough to do so. Signed Christian Kirk in offseason, veteran with no fantasy value but will take away targets. Kittle recovering from torn achilles. Drafted Wills the TE. Tonges should function as primary TE2, Wills will be TE3. CMC is a potential sell high candidate but know if healthy he is the number 1 overall RB in 2026.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Brock Purdy returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.7 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.6 att/g.
Offensive environment: SF rates 25.4 against a league average of 23, 2.4 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -2.6 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | +1.9 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -8.4 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -15.3 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2 | Jauan Jennings | +17.7 |
| 2020 | 7 | Richie James | +9.6 |
| 2022 | 4 | Brandon Aiyuk | +3.3 |
| 2023 | 2 | Ray-Ray McCloud | +3.3 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -34.4% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, WRs recover only 15% of the time (keep falling 85%).
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | 2024 | 11.7 | 46% | -24.4% |
| CeeDee Lamb | 2024 | 17.6 | 41% | +8.2% |
| Chris Godwin | 2023 | 12.3 | 37% | +22.9% |
| Jakobi Meyers | 2023 | 13.7 | 37% | +16.3% |
| Curtis Samuel | 2023 | 9.8 | 36% | -10.1% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 2 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2019, round 2, pick 36 by SFO |
| College | South Carolina |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| Height | 5′11″ |
| Weight | 214 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.48s |
| Vertical | 39″ |
| Broad jump | 122″ |
| 3-cone | 7.03s |
| Shuttle | 4.14s |
| Career PPR per game | 14 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.6 |
| Boom rate | 15.6% |
| Bust rate | 20.3% |
| Games missed per season | 2.8 |
| Injury history | Foot, Hamstring, Groin, Ankle, Shoulder, Calf, Ribs, Heel |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.42 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 5 against LAC — 23.6 PPR on 11 targets and a 47.8% target share, in a game that finished 27-10. His worst was Week 18 against PHI at 4.1, on 5 targets, final score 24-17. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11.4; in the 9 decided by more, 12. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 10.6 points per game. He scored 11.76, 11.3% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 21-6 | 22.6 | 7 | 10 | 77 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 34.5% | 77% |
| 2 | GB | 18-27 | 17.4 | 7 | 8 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20% | 88% |
| 3 | LV | 41-24 | 4.9 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 16.7% | 43% |
| 4 | ATL | 27-34 | 20.1 | 6 | 6 | 72 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 25% | 86% |
| 5 | LAC | 27-10 | 23.6 | 8 | 11 | 96 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 47.8% | 78% |
| 6 | CHI | 24-25 | 5.4 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20.8% | 72% |
| 8 | KC | 7-28 | 4.2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20% | 74% |
| 9 | SEA | 14-38 | 9.4 | 5 | 6 | 41 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 28.6% | 68% |
| 10 | DET | 22-44 | 12.9 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22.7% | 78% |
| 11 | MIA | 13-16 | 20.7 | 7 | 8 | 74 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 27.6% | 75% |
| 13 | DEN | 26-27 | 11.1 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 15.6% | 70% |
| 14 | MIN | 0-31 | 6.7 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30% | 52% |
| 15 | NYG | 29-21 | 7.3 | 3 | 5 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31.3% | 61% |
| 16 | PHI | 18-29 | 6.5 | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20% | 81% |
| 17 | DAL | 23-30 | 11.3 | 2 | 4 | 68 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 19% | 82% |
| 18 | PHI | 24-17 | 4.1 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 26.3% | 71% |
| Receptions | 72 |
| Targets | 99 |
| Receiving yards | 727 |
| Carries | 17 |
| Rushing yards | 75 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 11.76 |
| Yards per target | 7.34 |
| Catch rate | 72.73% |
| Yards per carry | 4.41 |
| Snap share | 72.25% |
| Target share | 25.37% |
| Air-yards share | 13.44% |
| WOPR | 0.475 |
| RACR | 2.245 |
| Average depth of target | 5.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 3.6 |
| Total YAC | 466 |
| Broken tackles | 6 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 97.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.1 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.01 |
| Red-zone targets | 12 |
| Red-zone target share | 25.5% |
| End-zone target share | 13% |
| Red-zone carry share | 4.4% |
| Goal-line carry share | 2.9% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.43 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.57 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.62 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 28 of 44 |
| Yards per target | 35 of 44 |
| Target share | 12 of 44 |
| Air-yards share | 43 of 44 |
The offense threw it 469 times. He took 22.92% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Deebo Samuel ← | 22.92% |
| Zach Ertz | 16.67% |
| Terry McLaurin | 13.89% |
| Jaylin Lane | 7.41% |
| Jeremy McNichols | 7.18% |
| Chris Moore | 5.32% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 8 | 44 | 10.96 | 7.7 | 22.36% |
| Jayden Daniels | 6 | 46 | 14.18 | 6.52 | 30.28% |
| Josh Johnson | 2 | 9 | 7.7 | 9.78 | 22.65% |
6 of his 16 games were blowouts, 32.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.28 in those and 11.43 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 16 against MIA — 25.1 PPR on 9 targets and a 24.3% target share, in a game that finished 17-29. His worst was Week 7 against KC at 0, on 0 targets, final score 18-28. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.5; in the 8 decided by more, 11.2. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 10.3 points per game. He scored 10.37, 8.4% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 2 against 3.18 expected, a gap of -1.2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | 32-19 | 18.7 | 5 | 9 | 54 | 8 | 23 | 1 | 31% | 74% |
| 2 | MIN | 17-23 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 110 | 2 | -10 | 0 | 27.8% | 86% |
| 4 | NE | 30-13 | 10.2 | 3 | 5 | 58 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 19.2% | 76% |
| 5 | ARI | 23-24 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 9.4% | 81% |
| 6 | SEA | 36-24 | 20.7 | 3 | 5 | 102 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 18.5% | 82% |
| 7 | KC | 18-28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 6% |
| 8 | DAL | 30-24 | 12.6 | 4 | 7 | 71 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 28% | 62% |
| 10 | TB | 23-20 | 12.6 | 5 | 6 | 62 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 17.6% | 78% |
| 11 | SEA | 17-20 | 6.1 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 25% | 87% |
| 12 | GB | 10-38 | 3.1 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15.4% | 67% |
| 13 | BUF | 10-35 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29.4% | 75% |
| 14 | CHI | 38-13 | 5.5 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 11.5% | 79% |
| 15 | LA | 6-12 | 4.9 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 22.6% | 78% |
| 16 | MIA | 17-29 | 25.1 | 7 | 9 | 96 | 5 | 25 | 1 | 24.3% | 83% |
| 17 | DET | 34-40 | 9.1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 2.8% | 83% |
| Receptions | 51 |
| Targets | 81 |
| Receiving yards | 670 |
| Carries | 42 |
| Rushing yards | 136 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 10.37 |
| Yards per target | 8.27 |
| Catch rate | 62.96% |
| Yards per carry | 3.24 |
| Snap share | 73.13% |
| Target share | 18.83% |
| Air-yards share | 14.49% |
| WOPR | 0.383 |
| RACR | 1.422 |
| Average depth of target | 6.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 4.9 |
| Total YAC | 421 |
| Broken tackles | 8 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 96.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.74 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.61 |
| Red-zone targets | 14 |
| Red-zone target share | 17.1% |
| End-zone target share | 6.7% |
| Red-zone carry share | 10.2% |
| Goal-line carry share | 7.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.18 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.18 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.46 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 40 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 23 of 51 |
| Target share | 41 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 49 of 51 |
The offense threw it 533 times. He took 16.8% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Jauan Jennings | 23.44% |
| George Kittle | 19.5% |
| Deebo Samuel ← | 16.8% |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 9.75% |
| Ricky Pearsall | 9.54% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 3.94% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 14 | 77 | 10.89 | 8.43 | 19.08% |
| Brandon Allen | 1 | 4 | 3.1 | 5.25 | 15.4% |
4 of his 15 games were blowouts, 15.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.2 in those and 9.47 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 13 against PHI — 35.8 PPR on 4 targets and a 16% target share, in a game that finished 42-19. His worst was Week 4 against ARI at 0.6, on 0 targets, final score 35-16. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 6 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 3 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.5; in the 12 decided by more, 17.9. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 10.6 points per game. He scored 16.25, 43.1% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PIT | 30-7 | 11.3 | 5 | 7 | 55 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 25% | 87% |
| 2 | LA | 30-23 | 22.1 | 6 | 9 | 63 | 5 | 38 | 1 | 37.5% | 89% |
| 3 | NYG | 30-12 | 25.1 | 6 | 12 | 129 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 35.3% | 82% |
| 4 | ARI | 35-16 | 0.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 87% |
| 5 | DAL | 42-10 | 11.5 | 3 | 3 | 55 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 12% | 73% |
| 6 | CLE | 17-19 | 1.1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 4.2% | 15% |
| 10 | JAX | 34-3 | 15.9 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 3 | 29 | 1 | 14.8% | 56% |
| 11 | TB | 27-14 | 9.2 | 3 | 4 | 63 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16% | 85% |
| 12 | SEA | 31-13 | 22.4 | 7 | 9 | 79 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 30% | 76% |
| 13 | PHI | 42-19 | 35.8 | 4 | 4 | 116 | 3 | 22 | 3 | 16% | 83% |
| 14 | SEA | 28-16 | 34 | 7 | 9 | 149 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 33.3% | 78% |
| 15 | ARI | 45-29 | 21.9 | 4 | 7 | 48 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 26.9% | 86% |
| 16 | BAL | 19-33 | 9.4 | 4 | 12 | 47 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 27.3% | 96% |
| 17 | WAS | 27-10 | 18.2 | 5 | 6 | 37 | 3 | 35 | 1 | 22.2% | 84% |
| 18 | LA | 20-21 | 5.2 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 8% | 33% |
| Receptions | 60 |
| Targets | 89 |
| Receiving yards | 892 |
| Carries | 37 |
| Rushing yards | 225 |
| Touchdowns | 12 |
| Points per game | 16.25 |
| Yards per target | 10.02 |
| Catch rate | 67.42% |
| Yards per carry | 6.08 |
| Snap share | 74% |
| Target share | 20.57% |
| Air-yards share | 15.91% |
| WOPR | 0.42 |
| RACR | 9.102 |
| Average depth of target | 6.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.1 |
| Total YAC | 527 |
| Broken tackles | 13 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 116.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.73 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.69 |
| Red-zone targets | 18 |
| Red-zone target share | 22.2% |
| End-zone target share | 12% |
| Red-zone carry share | 8.5% |
| Goal-line carry share | 7.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.07 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.07 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.63 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 12 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 7 of 51 |
| Target share | 37 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 47 of 51 |
The offense threw it 491 times. He took 19.6% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Brandon Aiyuk | 23.13% |
| George Kittle | 19.82% |
| Deebo Samuel ← | 19.6% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 18.28% |
| Jauan Jennings | 7.27% |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 3.3% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 14 | 87 | 17.04 | 10.01 | 21.46% |
| Sam Darnold | 1 | 2 | 5.2 | 10.5 | 8% |
8 of his 15 games were blowouts, 57.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 17.6 in those and 9.47 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 4 against LA — 23.7 PPR on 7 targets and a 28% target share, in a game that finished 24-9. His worst was Week 18 against ARI at 4.4, on 3 targets, final score 38-13. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 3 times.
His usage that season was worth 12.4 points per game. He scored 12.95, 5.9% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 1 against 3.45 expected, a gap of -2.4.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 10-19 | 12.6 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 8 | 52 | 1 | 26.9% | 82% |
| 2 | SEA | 27-7 | 14.7 | 5 | 6 | 44 | 4 | 53 | 0 | 25% | 78% |
| 3 | DEN | 10-11 | 12.9 | 5 | 8 | 73 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 27.6% | 79% |
| 4 | LA | 24-9 | 23.7 | 6 | 7 | 115 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 28% | 80% |
| 5 | CAR | 37-15 | 11.2 | 2 | 9 | 20 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 30% | 79% |
| 6 | ATL | 14-28 | 16 | 7 | 10 | 79 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 24.4% | 83% |
| 7 | KC | 23-44 | 9.4 | 5 | 7 | 42 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 15.2% | 86% |
| 10 | LAC | 22-16 | 7.1 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 21.4% | 87% |
| 11 | ARI | 38-10 | 22.4 | 7 | 9 | 57 | 3 | 37 | 1 | 31% | 59% |
| 12 | NO | 13-0 | 7.3 | 3 | 7 | 43 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18.9% | 79% |
| 13 | MIA | 33-17 | 12.3 | 6 | 10 | 58 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 25% | 82% |
| 14 | TB | 35-7 | 14.4 | 4 | 5 | 43 | 4 | 21 | 1 | 22.7% | 43% |
| 18 | ARI | 38-13 | 4.4 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 15% | 68% |
| Receptions | 56 |
| Targets | 94 |
| Receiving yards | 632 |
| Carries | 42 |
| Rushing yards | 232 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 12.95 |
| Yards per target | 6.72 |
| Catch rate | 59.57% |
| Yards per carry | 5.52 |
| Snap share | 75.77% |
| Target share | 23.93% |
| Air-yards share | 12.82% |
| WOPR | 0.448 |
| RACR | 1.922 |
| Average depth of target | 4.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 2.5 |
| Total YAC | 493 |
| Broken tackles | 12 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 73.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.69 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.64 |
| Red-zone targets | 14 |
| Red-zone target share | 19.2% |
| End-zone target share | 16.7% |
| Red-zone carry share | 6.9% |
| Goal-line carry share | 2.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.45 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -2.45 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.96 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 29 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 45 of 51 |
| Target share | 20 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 51 of 51 |
The offense threw it 512 times. He took 19.54% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Brandon Aiyuk | 23.7% |
| Deebo Samuel ← | 19.54% |
| George Kittle | 17.88% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 13.51% |
| Jauan Jennings | 11.64% |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 5.2% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 9 | 69 | 13.86 | 7.2 | 24.61% |
| Brock Purdy | 3 | 18 | 10.37 | 6.72 | 20.9% |
| Trey Lance | 1 | 7 | 12.6 | 2 | 26.9% |
6 of his 13 games were blowouts, 45.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 12.75 in those and 10 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 4 against SEA — 35.7 PPR on 13 targets and a 33.3% target share, in a game that finished 21-28. His worst was Week 3 against GB at 10.2, on 10 targets, final score 28-30. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 8 times and came in under 8 points 0 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 22.3; in the 7 decided by more, 19.7. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 12.3 points per game. He scored 21.19, 66.8% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 41-33 | 31.9 | 9 | 12 | 189 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 52.2% | 84% |
| 2 | PHI | 17-11 | 16.1 | 6 | 8 | 93 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 26.7% | 70% |
| 3 | GB | 28-30 | 10.2 | 5 | 10 | 52 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 26.3% | 90% |
| 4 | SEA | 21-28 | 35.7 | 8 | 13 | 156 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 33.3% | 89% |
| 5 | ARI | 10-17 | 16.1 | 3 | 9 | 58 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 32.1% | 86% |
| 7 | IND | 18-30 | 21 | 7 | 11 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 40.7% | 86% |
| 8 | CHI | 33-22 | 23.1 | 6 | 9 | 171 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 33.3% | 82% |
| 9 | ARI | 17-31 | 11.3 | 5 | 9 | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23.1% | 92% |
| 10 | LA | 31-10 | 30.3 | 5 | 5 | 97 | 5 | 36 | 2 | 26.3% | 72% |
| 11 | JAX | 30-10 | 16.4 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 8 | 79 | 1 | 10% | 80% |
| 12 | MIN | 34-26 | 20.8 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 6 | 66 | 2 | 15.4% | 66% |
| 14 | CIN | 26-23 | 12.9 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 8 | 37 | 1 | 2.7% | 77% |
| 15 | ATL | 31-13 | 18.9 | 4 | 5 | 60 | 6 | 29 | 1 | 20.8% | 81% |
| 16 | TEN | 17-20 | 28.1 | 9 | 11 | 159 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 31.4% | 76% |
| 17 | HOU | 23-7 | 17.2 | 3 | 6 | 63 | 7 | 19 | 1 | 26.1% | 85% |
| 18 | LA | 27-24 | 28.96 | 4 | 6 | 95 | 8 | 45 | 2 | 18.8% | 71% |
| Receptions | 77 |
| Targets | 121 |
| Receiving yards | 1,405 |
| Carries | 59 |
| Rushing yards | 365 |
| Touchdowns | 15 |
| Points per game | 21.19 |
| Yards per target | 11.61 |
| Catch rate | 63.64% |
| Yards per carry | 6.19 |
| Snap share | 80.44% |
| Target share | 26.2% |
| Air-yards share | 28.8% |
| WOPR | 0.596 |
| RACR | 1.404 |
| Average depth of target | 8.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 10 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.3 |
| Total YAC | 768 |
| Broken tackles | 13 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 106.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 3.46 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 1.3 |
| Red-zone targets | 10 |
| Red-zone target share | 16.1% |
| End-zone target share | 4.5% |
| Red-zone carry share | 23.9% |
| Goal-line carry share | 5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.52 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.52 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.89 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 3 of 48 |
| Yards per target | 1 of 48 |
| Target share | 12 of 48 |
| Air-yards share | 26 of 48 |
The offense threw it 514 times. He took 26.42% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Deebo Samuel ← | 26.42% |
| George Kittle | 20.52% |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 18.34% |
| Jauan Jennings | 8.3% |
| Jamycal Hasty | 6.33% |
| Mohamed Sanu | 5.24% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 14 | 106 | 21.83 | 12.11 | 25.79% |
| Trey Lance | 2 | 15 | 16.65 | 8.07 | 29.1% |
3 of his 16 games were blowouts, 19.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 21.87 in those and 22.31 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 12 against LA — 24.3 PPR on 13 targets and a 38.2% target share, in a game that finished 23-20. His worst was Week 14 against WAS at 0.9, on 0 targets, final score 15-23. Across 7 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 4 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12.7; in the 3 decided by more, 10. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 11.3 points per game. He scored 11.53, 1.8% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | PHI | 20-25 | 7.5 | 3 | 3 | 35 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 7.3% | 34% |
| 5 | MIA | 17-43 | 4.2 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 22.9% | 89% |
| 6 | LA | 24-16 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 66 | 1 | -6 | 1 | 18.8% | 82% |
| 7 | NE | 33-6 | 12.2 | 5 | 5 | 65 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 20% | 62% |
| 12 | LA | 23-20 | 24.3 | 11 | 13 | 133 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 38.2% | 88% |
| 13 | BUF | 24-34 | 13.6 | 6 | 9 | 73 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 23.1% | 95% |
| 14 | WAS | 15-23 | 0.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 1% |
| Receptions | 33 |
| Targets | 44 |
| Receiving yards | 391 |
| Carries | 8 |
| Rushing yards | 26 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 11.53 |
| Yards per target | 8.89 |
| Catch rate | 75% |
| Yards per carry | 3.25 |
| Snap share | 64.43% |
| Target share | 18.61% |
| Air-yards share | 3.44% |
| WOPR | 0.304 |
| RACR | 3.02 |
| Average depth of target | 2.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 12.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.2 |
| Total YAC | 398 |
| Broken tackles | 6 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 90.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.45 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.23 |
| Red-zone targets | 2 |
| Red-zone target share | 2.5% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 2.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.45 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.55 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.17 |
The offense threw it 570 times. He took 8.38% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Brandon Aiyuk | 18.29% |
| Kendrick Bourne | 14.1% |
| George Kittle | 12% |
| Jordan Reed | 8.76% |
| Jerick McKinnon | 8.76% |
| Deebo Samuel ← | 8.38% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Mullens | 4 | 25 | 11.57 | 9.64 | 17.15% |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 2 | 11 | 15.1 | 11.91 | 19.4% |
| C.J. Beathard | 1 | 8 | 4.2 | 2.38 | 22.9% |
2 of his 7 games were blowouts, 20.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.2 in those and 12.67 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
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