Demarcus Robinson — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 4.16 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 170, usage worth 4.6.

31 years old · 10 seasons of experience · 2016 draft class

ESPN	170
UNDERDOG	216
FFA	602

Draft-room facts

Goes around	Round 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft
Positional rank	WR99

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 35.8 points, 2.2 per game — 14.2 catches, 186 yards, 0.5 TDs. That is WR6, 362 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 0.7 points per game to a ceiling of 4, with the median at 2.2. Boom rate 76%, bust rate 69%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

He goes at 170 on consensus and our board has him 362. We rank him 192 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.

The offense he plays in, 2026

San Francisco 49ers returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1. Brock Purdy at quarterback, Kyle Shanahan as head coach, Klay Kubiak calling it. The offense projects to 33.7 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 27.7 rushes.

In: Mike Evans (wr1), De'Zhaun Stribling (wr2), Christian Kirk (wr4), Jacob Cowing (wr7), Kaelon Black (rb2). Out: Jauan Jennings (wr1), Kendrick Bourne (wr3), Brian Robinson Jr. (rb2).

His own projected target share for 2026 is 6.5%, with a bear case of 4.5% and a bull case of 7.4% and a full range of 2.9% to 8.9%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.

The projected target split across the offense:

De'Zhaun Stribling	16.1%
Mike Evans	11.8%
George Kittle	11.5%
Ricky Pearsall	10.4%
Christian Kirk	9.2%
Christian McCaffrey	8.9%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

How the volume number was reached: Same QB Brock Purdy returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.7 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.6 att/g.

How that share projection was built

The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.

Offensive environment: SF rates 25.4 against a league average of 23, 2.4 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season	-2.6 · harder
Weeks 1–6	+1.9 · easier
Weeks 12–17	-8.4 · harder
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)	-15.3 · harder

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved -8.8% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

Player	Season	Their PPG	Similarity	Next year
Josh Reynolds	2024	4.8	69%	-12.7%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	2024	6.5	61%	-42.7%
Nelson Agholor	2024	3.8	57%	-7.7%
Justin Watson	2024	4.2	55%	-17.4%
JuJu Smith-Schuster	2024	4.8	54%	+0.1%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 0 gained value, 4 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Drafted	2016, round 4, pick 126 by KAN
College	Florida
Age at draft	21
Height	6′1″
Weight	203 lb
40-yard dash	4.59s
Vertical	34.5″
Broad jump	123″
3-cone	6.77s
Shuttle	4.19s

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game	7
Week-to-week variation	0.9
Boom rate	27.3%
Bust rate	31.8%
Games missed per season	0
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score	0.17

The record, season by season

2025 · SF · 14 games

His best game was Week 16 against IND — 10.3 PPR on 2 targets and a 6.1% target share, in a game that finished 48-27. His worst was Week 9 against NYG at 0, on 1 targets, final score 34-24. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 3 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5; in the 11 decided by more, 3.9. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 4.6 points per game. He scored 4.16, 12.3% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
4	JAX	21-26	3	1	2	20	0	5.4%	38%
5	LA	26-23	6.9	3	7	39	0	14.6%	85%
6	TB	19-30	6.4	2	3	44	0	8.1%	19%
7	ATL	20-10	0	0	1	0	0	4.2%	34%
8	HOU	15-26	4.5	2	3	5	0	9.7%	56%
9	NYG	34-24	0	0	1	0	0	4.3%	33%
10	LA	26-42	6.4	3	4	34	0	10.3%	46%
11	ARI	41-22	2.3	1	2	13	0	8%	49%
12	CAR	20-9	1.8	1	1	8	0	3.1%	54%
13	CLE	26-8	0.6	0	1	0	0	4.3%	43%
15	TEN	37-24	5.6	2	2	36	0	7.1%	31%
16	IND	48-27	10.3	2	2	23	1	6.1%	44%
17	CHI	42-38	5	2	2	30	0	6.1%	35%
18	SEA	3-13	5.4	3	4	24	0	14.8%	88%

Production

Receptions	22
Targets	35
Receiving yards	276
Carries	1
Rushing yards	6
Touchdowns	1
Points per game	4.16
Yards per target	7.89
Catch rate	62.86%
Yards per carry	6

Role

Snap share	46.79%
Target share	7.58%
Air-yards share	14.26%
WOPR	0.214
RACR	0.567

Efficiency

Average depth of target	13.5
Yards after catch per reception	1.6
Yards before catch per reception	10.9
Total YAC	36
Broken tackles	1
Drop rate	0%
Passer rating when targeted	96.8
Receiving EPA per game	0.54
Rushing EPA per game	0.02

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	4
Red-zone target share	4.4%
End-zone target share	5.9%
Expected receiving TDs	1.31
Actual receiving TDs	1
Receiving TD luck	-0.31

Who else ate

The offense threw it 574 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Christian McCaffrey	24.76%
Jauan Jennings	17.27%
George Kittle	13.24%
Kendrick Bourne	10.17%
Ricky Pearsall	10.17%
Jake Tonges	8.83%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QB	Games	Targets	PPG	Y/T	Tgt%
Brock Purdy	8	16	4.25	9.63	6.86%
Mac Jones	6	19	4.03	6.42	8.53%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 14 games were blowouts, 22.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.4 in those and 4.97 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2024 · LA · 17 games

His best game was Week 9 against SEA — 27.4 PPR on 9 targets and a 21.4% target share, in a game that finished 26-20. His worst was Week 17 against ARI at 0, on 2 targets, final score 13-9. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 13 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.9; in the 4 decided by more, 8.5. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 6.8 points per game. He scored 7.26, 6% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	DET	20-26	8.2	4	7	42	0	14.6%	92%
2	ARI	10-41	7	2	4	50	0	14.8%	92%
3	SF	27-24	4.2	1	4	32	0	17.4%	93%
4	CHI	18-24	5.7	2	3	37	0	10.3%	85%
5	GB	19-24	11.8	3	5	28	1	11.1%	97%
7	LV	20-15	1.9	1	3	9	0	13.6%	91%
8	MIN	30-20	17.5	2	3	35	2	8.8%	85%
9	SEA	26-20	27.4	6	9	94	2	21.4%	70%
10	MIA	15-23	3.3	1	5	23	0	11.4%	83%
11	NE	28-22	3.9	2	4	19	0	14.8%	75%
12	PHI	20-37	9.5	2	3	15	1	8.8%	80%
13	NO	21-14	12.9	2	3	49	1	13%	61%
14	BUF	44-42	0	0	1	0	0	3.3%	61%
15	SF	12-6	0	0	1	0	0	3.8%	78%
16	NYJ	19-9	0	0	1	0	0	5.3%	73%
17	ARI	13-9	0	0	2	0	0	7.1%	79%
18	SEA	25-30	10.2	3	6	72	0	15%	94%

Production

Receptions	31
Targets	64
Receiving yards	505
Touchdowns	7
Points per game	7.26
Yards per target	7.89
Catch rate	48.44%

Role

Snap share	81.71%
Target share	11.44%
Air-yards share	24.39%
WOPR	0.342
RACR	0.455

Efficiency

Average depth of target	14.2
Yards after catch per reception	2.3
Yards before catch per reception	14
Total YAC	71
Broken tackles	1
Drop rate	0%
Passer rating when targeted	85.7
Receiving EPA per game	0.48

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	13
Red-zone target share	13.8%
End-zone target share	26.3%
Expected receiving TDs	4.58
Actual receiving TDs	5
Receiving TD luck	0.42

Who else ate

The offense threw it 559 times. He took 11.83% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Puka Nacua	19.59%
Cooper Kupp	18.48%
Demarcus Robinson ←	11.83%
Tutu Atwell	11.46%
Colby Parkinson	9.06%
Tyler Johnson	7.58%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QB	Games	Targets	PPG	Y/T	Tgt%
Matthew Stafford	16	58	7.08	7.47	11.22%
Jimmy Garoppolo	1	6	10.2	12	15%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 17 games were blowouts, 13.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.25 in those and 6.88 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2023 · LA · 8 games

His best game was Week 16 against NO — 20.2 PPR on 6 targets and a 18.8% target share, in a game that finished 30-22. His worst was Week 9 against GB at 2.5, on 1 targets, final score 3-20. Across 8 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13.2; in the 3 decided by more, 7.1. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 8.6 points per game. He scored 10.93, 22.6% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
9	GB	3-20	2.5	1	1	15	0	3.7%	16%
11	SEA	17-16	4.4	2	2	24	0	6.9%	10%
12	ARI	37-14	3.3	2	2	13	0	6.5%	60%
13	CLE	36-19	15.5	4	5	55	1	14.7%	59%
14	BAL	31-37	13.6	3	10	46	1	25.6%	86%
15	WAS	28-20	14.7	2	3	44	1	9.4%	95%
16	NO	30-22	20.2	6	6	82	1	18.8%	93%
17	NYG	26-25	13.2	6	10	92	0	29.4%	92%

Production

Receptions	26
Targets	39
Receiving yards	371
Carries	1
Rushing yards	23
Touchdowns	4
Points per game	10.93
Yards per target	9.51
Catch rate	66.67%
Yards per carry	23

Role

Snap share	63.88%
Target share	14.38%
Air-yards share	23.31%
WOPR	0.378
RACR	1.289

Efficiency

Average depth of target	12.3
Yards after catch per reception	3.4
Yards before catch per reception	10.8
Total YAC	89
Broken tackles	0
Drop rate	0%
Passer rating when targeted	120.8
Receiving EPA per game	2.03
Rushing EPA per game	0.17

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	9
Red-zone target share	11%
End-zone target share	22.6%
Expected receiving TDs	2.97
Actual receiving TDs	3
Receiving TD luck	0.03

Who else ate

The offense threw it 583 times. He took 7.03% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Puka Nacua	28.83%
Cooper Kupp	17.12%
Tyler Higbee	12.61%
Tutu Atwell	12.07%
Kyren Williams	8.65%
Demarcus Robinson ←	7.03%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QB	Games	Targets	PPG	Y/T	Tgt%
Matthew Stafford	7	38	12.13	9.37	15.9%
Brett Rypien	1	1	2.5	15	3.7%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 8 games were blowouts, 24.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.1 in those and 13.22 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2022 · BAL · 16 games

His best game was Week 11 against CAR — 21.8 PPR on 9 targets and a 28.1% target share, in a game that finished 13-3. His worst was Week 3 against NE at 0, on 1 targets, final score 37-26. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.5; in the 6 decided by more, 6.5. Game state made no difference to his scoring.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 7.8 points per game. He scored 6.49, 12.5% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	NYJ	24-9	3.9	2	4	19	0	13.8%	45%
2	MIA	38-42	8.2	1	2	12	1	6.9%	39%
3	NE	37-26	0	0	1	0	0	3.7%	37%
4	BUF	20-23	3	2	3	10	0	10.7%	56%
5	CIN	19-17	1.8	1	2	8	0	7.4%	75%
6	NYG	20-24	5.7	3	5	27	0	15.6%	76%
8	TB	27-22	12.4	6	8	64	0	23.5%	63%
9	NO	27-13	2.2	1	4	12	0	18.2%	50%
11	CAR	13-3	21.8	9	9	128	0	28.1%	78%
12	JAX	27-28	2.7	1	4	17	0	13.3%	60%
13	DEN	10-9	11.1	7	8	41	0	22.2%	76%
14	PIT	16-14	10.2	5	6	52	0	35.3%	61%
15	CLE	3-13	6.9	6	6	29	0	21.4%	63%
16	ATL	17-9	7.6	1	1	6	1	6.3%	54%
17	PIT	13-16	1.9	1	3	9	0	15%	60%
18	CIN	16-27	4.4	2	9	24	0	21.4%	63%

Production

Receptions	48
Targets	75
Receiving yards	458
Touchdowns	2
Points per game	6.49
Yards per target	6.11
Catch rate	64%

Role

Snap share	59.75%
Target share	16.43%
Air-yards share	19.62%
WOPR	0.384
RACR	0.63

Efficiency

Average depth of target	9
Yards after catch per reception	3
Yards before catch per reception	6.5
Total YAC	146
Broken tackles	1
Drop rate	0%
Passer rating when targeted	67.5
Receiving EPA per game	0.22

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	11
Red-zone target share	13.9%
End-zone target share	21.9%
Expected receiving TDs	2.25
Actual receiving TDs	2
Receiving TD luck	-0.25

Who else ate

The offense threw it 488 times. He took 16.13% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Mark Andrews	24.3%
Demarcus Robinson ←	16.13%
Isaiah Likely	12.9%
Devin Duvernay	10.54%
Rashod Bateman	6.02%
Kenyan Drake	5.59%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QB	Games	Targets	PPG	Y/T	Tgt%
Lamar Jackson	10	42	6.17	7.07	14.12%
Tyler Huntley	5	24	7.54	5.71	20.04%
Anthony Brown	1	9	4.4	2.67	21.4%

2021 · KC · 14 games

His best game was Week 2 against BAL — 13.6 PPR on 4 targets and a 13.3% target share, in a game that finished 35-36. His worst was Week 15 against LAC at 0, on 3 targets, final score 34-28. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 4.9; in the 6 decided by more, 5. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 5.1 points per game. He scored 4.96, 6.5% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	CLE	33-29	1.9	1	2	9	0	5.9%	74%
2	BAL	35-36	13.6	3	4	46	1	13.3%	59%
3	LAC	24-30	3.7	2	2	17	0	5%	72%
5	BUF	20-38	1.8	1	2	8	0	4%	76%
6	WAS	31-13	13.6	3	6	46	1	13%	70%
7	TEN	3-27	1.7	1	4	7	0	8.3%	79%
8	NYG	20-17	2.8	1	1	18	0	2.3%	41%
9	GB	13-7	1.2	1	1	2	0	2.8%	22%
10	LV	41-14	5.3	3	4	23	0	8.3%	34%
13	DEN	22-9	4.1	2	2	21	0	7.4%	54%
15	LAC	34-28	0	0	3	0	0	6.7%	68%
16	PIT	36-10	3.5	2	2	15	0	6.9%	67%
17	CIN	31-34	11.3	2	2	33	1	5.9%	64%
18	DEN	28-24	4.9	3	6	19	0	14.3%	53%

Production

Receptions	25
Targets	41
Receiving yards	264
Touchdowns	3
Points per game	4.96
Yards per target	6.44
Catch rate	60.98%

Role

Snap share	59.5%
Target share	7.44%
Air-yards share	9.9%
WOPR	0.181
RACR	0.96

Efficiency

Average depth of target	10.4
Yards after catch per reception	2.5
Yards before catch per reception	8.1
Total YAC	62
Broken tackles	0
Drop rate	0%
Passer rating when targeted	104.1
Receiving EPA per game	0.7

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	4
Red-zone target share	3.2%
End-zone target share	0%
Expected receiving TDs	0.71
Actual receiving TDs	0
Receiving TD luck	-0.71

Who else ate

The offense threw it 674 times. He took 6.48% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Tyreek Hill	25.12%
Travis Kelce	21.17%
Mecole Hardman	13.11%
Byron Pringle	9.48%
Darrel Williams	9%
Demarcus Robinson ←	6.48%

Blowouts against close games

5 of his 14 games were blowouts, 37.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.18 in those and 4.92 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2020 · KC · 15 games

His best game was Week 8 against NYJ — 16.3 PPR on 5 targets and a 10.6% target share, in a game that finished 35-9. His worst was Week 3 against BAL at 0, on 1 targets, final score 34-20. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.8; in the 6 decided by more, 7.7. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 6.8 points per game. He scored 7.17, 2.9% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	HOU	34-20	5	3	6	20	0	18.8%	48%
2	LAC	23-20	5.8	3	4	28	0	8.9%	62%
3	BAL	34-20	0	0	1	0	0	2.4%	55%
5	LV	32-40	2.2	2	4	2	0	9.5%	68%
6	BUF	26-17	11.9	5	6	69	0	23.1%	95%
7	DEN	43-16	1.4	1	1	4	0	4.2%	67%
8	NYJ	35-9	16.3	4	5	63	1	10.6%	55%
9	CAR	33-31	10.4	3	3	34	1	6.8%	81%
11	LV	35-31	10.4	6	8	44	0	18.2%	81%
12	TB	27-24	8.6	5	6	36	0	13%	72%
13	DEN	22-16	5.9	2	2	39	0	5%	58%
14	MIA	33-27	2.3	1	1	13	0	2.9%	53%
15	NO	32-29	4.7	2	3	27	0	6.8%	51%
16	ATL	17-14	10.9	2	2	29	1	4.8%	61%
17	LAC	21-38	11.8	6	7	58	0	22.6%	89%

Production

Receptions	45
Targets	59
Receiving yards	466
Touchdowns	3
Points per game	7.17
Yards per target	7.9
Catch rate	76.27%

Role

Snap share	66.4%
Target share	10.51%
Air-yards share	13.27%
WOPR	0.251
RACR	1.031

Efficiency

Average depth of target	8.9
Yards after catch per reception	3.8
Yards before catch per reception	6.5
Total YAC	173
Broken tackles	1
Drop rate	0%
Passer rating when targeted	108.4
Receiving EPA per game	1.37

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	8
Red-zone target share	7.5%
End-zone target share	11.1%
Expected receiving TDs	1.68
Actual receiving TDs	1
Receiving TD luck	-0.68

Who else ate

The offense threw it 629 times. He took 9.7% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Travis Kelce	23.85%
Tyreek Hill	22.2%
Mecole Hardman	10.2%
Demarcus Robinson ←	9.7%
Sammy Watkins	9.05%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	8.88%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QB	Games	Targets	PPG	Y/T	Tgt%
Patrick Mahomes	14	52	6.84	7.85	9.64%
Chad Henne	1	7	11.8	8.29	22.6%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 15 games were blowouts, 27.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.83 in those and 6.8 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

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