Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 10.6 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 71.6, usage worth 13.2.
32 years old · 12 seasons of experience · 2014 draft class
| SLEEPER | 59.2 |
| ESPN | 97.5 |
| YAHOO | 65.6 |
| UNDERDOG | 49.4 |
| CBS | 64.3 |
| FFA | 54 |
| Goes around | Round 6, pick 12 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR28 |
| Bye week | 8 |
| ADP standard deviation | 17.5 picks |
Our board has him at 206.1 points, 12.6 per game — 63.7 catches, 884 yards, 9 TDs. That is WR4, 54 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 9.2 points per game to a ceiling of 18.5, with the median at 12.6. Boom rate 47%, bust rate 27%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 71.6 on consensus and our board has him 54. We rank him 17.6 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
Red-zone monster in a high-scoring SF offense; could lead the NFL in TDs. Value at the 5/6 turn. Age 33 + last year's collarbone are the worries, but that injury isn't repeatable and Jennings (3rd in inside-5 targets) is gone. Ideal as a high-ceiling WR3/flex.
buy · high conviction · 2026-06-05San Francisco 49ers returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1. Brock Purdy at quarterback, Kyle Shanahan as head coach, Klay Kubiak calling it. The offense projects to 33.7 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 27.7 rushes.
In: Mike Evans (wr1), De'Zhaun Stribling (wr2), Christian Kirk (wr4), Jacob Cowing (wr7), Kaelon Black (rb2). Out: Jauan Jennings (wr1), Kendrick Bourne (wr3), Brian Robinson Jr. (rb2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 11.8%, with a bear case of 8.3% and a bull case of 16% and a full range of 6.2% to 17.6%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| De'Zhaun Stribling | 16.1% |
| Mike Evans ← | 11.8% |
| George Kittle | 11.5% |
| Ricky Pearsall | 10.4% |
| Christian Kirk | 9.2% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 8.9% |
Key additions: Signed WR Mike Evans from Bucs in free agency. Signed WR Christian Kirk in free agency. Drafted WR De'Zhaun Stribling in the 2nd round from Ole Miss. Drafted RB Kaelon Black in the 3rd round.
Key departures: WR Brandon Aiyuk (who did not play all of 2025 due to injury) is gone. WR Jauan Jennings is also gone. He has functioned as 49ers WR 1/2 for the past two seasons. RB Brian Robinson Jr left to ATL in free agency.
Notes: Stribling round 2 has opportunity to break out early. Mike Evans signing in free agency. Should be alpha WR1 but aging & injury risk. Potential sell high but should produce in 2026. Drafted RB Kaelon Black round 3 from Indiana. Black was not even invited to the NFL combine, but 49ers LOVE him. Could assume RB2 role immediately if he beats out Jordan James. Ricky Pearsall has an opportunity to break out as a WR2 but needs to stay healthy enough to do so. Signed Christian Kirk in offseason, veteran with no fantasy value but will take away targets. Kittle recovering from torn achilles. Drafted Wills the TE. Tonges should function as primary TE2, Wills will be TE3. CMC is a potential sell high candidate but know if healthy he is the number 1 overall RB in 2026.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Brock Purdy returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.7 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.6 att/g.
25 historical comps for WRs age ~55, prior share 25.8%, team change, OC continuity. Distribution: median 14.2%, p25-p75 [5.9%, 22.3%], tails [1.3%, 25.7%]. Closest comps: Mike Evans 2024→2025 (TB: 24.8%→24.3%); Mike Evans 2023→2024 (TB: 22.3%→26.1%); Julian Edelman 2020→2021 (NE: 27.3%→0.0%). Adjustment: -6% from role_decline (real opportunity collapse)
arrival self-anchored 32% to own 25.8% role (2yr)
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: SF rates 25.4 against a league average of 23, 2.4 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -2.6 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | +1.9 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -8.4 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -15.3 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4 | Tez Johnson | +4.5 |
| 2024 | 3 | Rakim Jarrett | +3 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -12.8% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 2024 | 12.7 | 73% | -4.3% |
| Adam Thielen | 2024 | 14 | 70% | -65% |
| Diontae Johnson | 2024 | 8.1 | 68% | -53.6% |
| Terry McLaurin | 2023 | 12 | 66% | +39.7% |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 2024 | 8.9 | 65% | -27.7% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 4 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Height | 6′5″ |
| Weight | 231 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.53s |
| Vertical | 37″ |
| 3-cone | 7.08s |
| Shuttle | 4.26s |
| Career PPR per game | 15.6 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.6 |
| Boom rate | 26.5% |
| Bust rate | 22.1% |
| Games missed per season | 1.3 |
| Injury history | Hamstring, Collarbone |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.15 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 15 against ATL — 19.2 PPR on 12 targets and a 37.5% target share, in a game that finished 28-29. His worst was Week 7 against DET at 0, on 4 targets, final score 9-24. Across 8 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 2 times.
His usage that season was worth 13.2 points per game. He scored 10.6, 19.9% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | 23-20 | 10.1 | 5 | 8 | 51 | 0 | 26.7% | 83% |
| 2 | HOU | 20-19 | 10.6 | 5 | 11 | 56 | 0 | 30.6% | 79% |
| 3 | NYJ | 29-27 | 13.3 | 4 | 9 | 33 | 1 | 31% | 72% |
| 7 | DET | 9-24 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8% | 20% |
| 15 | ATL | 28-29 | 19.2 | 6 | 12 | 132 | 0 | 37.5% | 55% |
| 16 | CAR | 20-23 | 14.1 | 5 | 9 | 31 | 1 | 36% | 66% |
| 17 | MIA | 17-20 | 12.1 | 3 | 7 | 31 | 1 | 15.9% | 75% |
| 18 | CAR | 16-14 | 5.4 | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 9.1% | 75% |
| Receptions | 30 |
| Targets | 62 |
| Receiving yards | 368 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 10.6 |
| Yards per target | 5.94 |
| Catch rate | 48.39% |
| Snap share | 65.63% |
| Target share | 24.35% |
| Air-yards share | 34.77% |
| WOPR | 0.609 |
| RACR | 0.501 |
| Average depth of target | 13.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 1.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 11 |
| Total YAC | 37 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 69.8 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.66 |
| Red-zone targets | 9 |
| Red-zone target share | 12.5% |
| End-zone target share | 18.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.12 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.12 |
The offense threw it 558 times. He took 11.48% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Emeka Egbuka | 23.52% |
| Cade Otton | 15% |
| Mike Evans ← | 11.48% |
| Sterling Shepard | 9.81% |
| Chris Godwin | 9.44% |
| Rachaad White | 8.33% |
His best game was Week 15 against LAC — 36.9 PPR on 11 targets and a 42.3% target share, in a game that finished 40-17. His worst was Week 3 against DEN at 3.7, on 3 targets, final score 7-26. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 6 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 17.2; in the 9 decided by more, 17.2. Game state made no difference to his scoring.
His usage that season was worth 13.8 points per game. He scored 17.17, 26.7% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 8 against 5.52 expected, a gap of 2.5.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS | 37-20 | 23.1 | 5 | 6 | 61 | 2 | 20% | 70% |
| 2 | DET | 20-16 | 7.2 | 3 | 6 | 42 | 0 | 31.6% | 79% |
| 3 | DEN | 7-26 | 3.7 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 9.4% | 82% |
| 4 | PHI | 33-16 | 23.4 | 8 | 14 | 94 | 1 | 29.8% | 77% |
| 5 | ATL | 30-36 | 23.2 | 5 | 7 | 62 | 2 | 29.2% | 87% |
| 6 | NO | 51-27 | 5.4 | 2 | 6 | 34 | 0 | 16.7% | 57% |
| 7 | BAL | 31-41 | 9.5 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 1 | 6.7% | 28% |
| 12 | NYG | 30-7 | 11.8 | 5 | 6 | 68 | 0 | 20% | 60% |
| 13 | CAR | 26-23 | 25.8 | 8 | 12 | 118 | 1 | 35.3% | 84% |
| 14 | LV | 28-13 | 10.9 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 0 | 17.9% | 82% |
| 15 | LAC | 40-17 | 36.9 | 9 | 11 | 159 | 2 | 42.3% | 65% |
| 16 | DAL | 24-26 | 11.9 | 5 | 8 | 69 | 0 | 18.6% | 81% |
| 17 | CAR | 48-14 | 29.7 | 8 | 9 | 97 | 2 | 28.1% | 62% |
| 18 | NO | 27-19 | 17.9 | 9 | 14 | 89 | 0 | 45.2% | 88% |
| Receptions | 74 |
| Targets | 110 |
| Receiving yards | 1,004 |
| Touchdowns | 11 |
| Points per game | 17.17 |
| Yards per target | 9.13 |
| Catch rate | 67.27% |
| Snap share | 71.57% |
| Target share | 25.06% |
| Air-yards share | 39.57% |
| WOPR | 0.653 |
| RACR | 0.8 |
| Average depth of target | 11.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 10.5 |
| Total YAC | 226 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 110.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.75 |
| Red-zone targets | 16 |
| Red-zone target share | 18.8% |
| End-zone target share | 36.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 5.52 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 8 |
| Receiving TD luck | 2.48 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 10 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 14 of 51 |
| Target share | 24 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 8 of 51 |
The offense threw it 571 times. He took 19.54% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Mike Evans ← | 19.54% |
| Cade Otton | 15.45% |
| Chris Godwin | 11.01% |
| Jalen McMillan | 10.3% |
| Rachaad White | 10.12% |
| Bucky Irving | 9.24% |
7 of his 14 games were blowouts, 55.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 19.14 in those and 17.2 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 13 against CAR — 29.2 PPR on 12 targets and a 44.4% target share, in a game that finished 21-18. His worst was Week 14 against ATL at 1.8, on 6 targets, final score 29-25. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 6 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 17.2; in the 10 decided by more, 16.2. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 14 points per game. He scored 16.62, 19.7% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 6 against 4.59 expected, a gap of 1.4.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 20-17 | 18.6 | 6 | 10 | 66 | 1 | 31.3% | 84% |
| 2 | CHI | 27-17 | 29.1 | 6 | 8 | 171 | 1 | 25% | 61% |
| 3 | PHI | 11-25 | 17 | 5 | 10 | 60 | 1 | 40% | 81% |
| 4 | NO | 26-9 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 10% | 37% |
| 6 | DET | 6-20 | 8.9 | 4 | 10 | 49 | 0 | 27% | 80% |
| 7 | ATL | 13-16 | 20.2 | 6 | 8 | 82 | 1 | 19.5% | 78% |
| 8 | BUF | 18-24 | 12.9 | 3 | 6 | 39 | 1 | 15.4% | 85% |
| 9 | HOU | 37-39 | 12.7 | 4 | 5 | 87 | 0 | 16.7% | 83% |
| 10 | TEN | 20-6 | 26.3 | 6 | 10 | 143 | 1 | 34.5% | 72% |
| 11 | SF | 14-27 | 15.3 | 5 | 12 | 43 | 1 | 27.9% | 79% |
| 12 | IND | 20-27 | 25 | 6 | 9 | 70 | 2 | 30% | 92% |
| 13 | CAR | 21-18 | 29.2 | 7 | 12 | 162 | 1 | 44.4% | 82% |
| 14 | ATL | 29-25 | 1.8 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 20.7% | 93% |
| 15 | GB | 34-20 | 15.7 | 4 | 6 | 57 | 1 | 22.2% | 85% |
| 16 | JAX | 30-12 | 27.6 | 7 | 9 | 86 | 2 | 25.7% | 77% |
| 17 | NO | 13-23 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 70 | 0 | 12.1% | 82% |
| 18 | CAR | 9-0 | 5.2 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 0 | 25.8% | 86% |
| Receptions | 79 |
| Targets | 136 |
| Receiving yards | 1,255 |
| Touchdowns | 13 |
| Points per game | 16.62 |
| Yards per target | 9.23 |
| Catch rate | 58.09% |
| Snap share | 78.65% |
| Target share | 25.19% |
| Air-yards share | 39.14% |
| WOPR | 0.652 |
| RACR | 0.706 |
| Average depth of target | 14 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 11.8 |
| Total YAC | 322 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 111.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 3.18 |
| Red-zone targets | 17 |
| Red-zone target share | 23.6% |
| End-zone target share | 41.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.59 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 6 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.41 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 10 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 16 of 51 |
| Target share | 18 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 10 of 51 |
The offense threw it 568 times. He took 24.73% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Mike Evans ← | 24.73% |
| Chris Godwin | 23.64% |
| Rachaad White | 12.73% |
| Trey Palmer | 12.36% |
| Cade Otton | 12.18% |
| Deven Thompkins | 4.55% |
2 of his 17 games were blowouts, 12.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 17.3 in those and 17.2 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 17 against CAR — 48.7 PPR on 12 targets and a 28.6% target share, in a game that finished 30-24. His worst was Week 12 against CLE at 5.1, on 9 targets, final score 17-23. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14.2; in the 6 decided by more, 16.3. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 14.7 points per game. He scored 15.03, 2.1% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL | 19-3 | 18.1 | 5 | 7 | 71 | 1 | 25.9% | 73% |
| 2 | NO | 20-10 | 9.1 | 3 | 4 | 61 | 0 | 12.1% | 61% |
| 4 | KC | 31-41 | 30.3 | 8 | 10 | 103 | 2 | 19.2% | 91% |
| 5 | ATL | 21-15 | 12.1 | 4 | 8 | 81 | 0 | 16% | 85% |
| 6 | PIT | 18-20 | 8.2 | 4 | 4 | 42 | 0 | 10.8% | 96% |
| 7 | CAR | 3-21 | 18.6 | 9 | 15 | 96 | 0 | 31.3% | 88% |
| 8 | BAL | 22-27 | 18.3 | 6 | 11 | 123 | 0 | 26.2% | 94% |
| 9 | LA | 16-13 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 40 | 0 | 20% | 88% |
| 10 | SEA | 21-16 | 10.4 | 5 | 6 | 54 | 0 | 20.7% | 73% |
| 12 | CLE | 17-23 | 5.1 | 2 | 9 | 31 | 0 | 21.4% | 90% |
| 13 | NO | 17-16 | 9.9 | 4 | 4 | 59 | 0 | 7.5% | 84% |
| 14 | SF | 7-35 | 8.4 | 4 | 9 | 44 | 0 | 17.6% | 87% |
| 15 | CIN | 23-34 | 13.3 | 5 | 9 | 83 | 0 | 21.4% | 81% |
| 16 | ARI | 19-16 | 5.9 | 3 | 8 | 29 | 0 | 16.7% | 93% |
| 17 | CAR | 30-24 | 48.7 | 10 | 12 | 207 | 3 | 28.6% | 83% |
| Receptions | 77 |
| Targets | 127 |
| Receiving yards | 1,124 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 15.03 |
| Yards per target | 8.85 |
| Catch rate | 60.63% |
| Snap share | 84.47% |
| Target share | 19.69% |
| Air-yards share | 34.81% |
| WOPR | 0.54 |
| RACR | 0.731 |
| Average depth of target | 12.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 11.8 |
| Total YAC | 216 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 85.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.74 |
| Red-zone targets | 14 |
| Red-zone target share | 12.2% |
| End-zone target share | 23.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.6 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.6 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 15 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 15 of 51 |
| Target share | 37 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 15 of 51 |
The offense threw it 751 times. He took 17.57% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Chris Godwin | 19.64% |
| Mike Evans ← | 17.57% |
| Leonard Fournette | 11.48% |
| Russell Gage | 9.68% |
| Cade Otton | 8.99% |
| Rachaad White | 8.02% |
2 of his 15 games were blowouts, 12% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 13.5 in those and 14.18 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 7 against CHI — 31.6 PPR on 10 targets and a 25.6% target share, in a game that finished 38-3. His worst was Week 15 against NO at 2.4, on 1 targets, final score 0-9. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 6 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10.8; in the 10 decided by more, 19.8. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 13.5 points per game. He scored 16.41, 29.9% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 10 against 6.93 expected, a gap of 3.1.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL | 31-29 | 5.4 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 | 13.3% | 94% |
| 2 | ATL | 48-25 | 24.5 | 5 | 9 | 75 | 2 | 25.7% | 73% |
| 3 | LA | 24-34 | 18.6 | 8 | 10 | 106 | 0 | 18.5% | 84% |
| 4 | NE | 19-17 | 14.5 | 7 | 12 | 75 | 0 | 27.9% | 88% |
| 5 | MIA | 45-17 | 29.3 | 6 | 8 | 113 | 2 | 19% | 78% |
| 6 | PHI | 28-22 | 4.7 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 9.5% | 93% |
| 7 | CHI | 38-3 | 31.6 | 6 | 10 | 76 | 3 | 25.6% | 77% |
| 8 | NO | 27-36 | 12.8 | 2 | 4 | 48 | 1 | 9.8% | 95% |
| 10 | WAS | 19-29 | 14.2 | 2 | 3 | 62 | 1 | 9.1% | 100% |
| 11 | NYG | 30-10 | 20.3 | 6 | 11 | 73 | 1 | 23.4% | 82% |
| 12 | IND | 38-31 | 4.6 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 0 | 17.6% | 99% |
| 13 | ATL | 30-17 | 16.9 | 7 | 10 | 99 | 0 | 19.6% | 93% |
| 14 | BUF | 33-27 | 21.1 | 6 | 6 | 91 | 1 | 13% | 93% |
| 15 | NO | 0-9 | 2.4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 2.1% | 23% |
| 17 | NYJ | 28-24 | 14.7 | 4 | 7 | 47 | 1 | 14.3% | 76% |
| 18 | CAR | 41-17 | 26.9 | 6 | 7 | 89 | 2 | 18.4% | 72% |
| Receptions | 74 |
| Targets | 114 |
| Receiving yards | 1,035 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 10 |
| Touchdowns | 14 |
| Points per game | 16.41 |
| Yards per target | 9.08 |
| Catch rate | 64.91% |
| Yards per carry | 10 |
| Snap share | 82.5% |
| Target share | 16.68% |
| Air-yards share | 26.32% |
| WOPR | 0.434 |
| RACR | 0.784 |
| Average depth of target | 13 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 10.5 |
| Total YAC | 259 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 122.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 4.11 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.04 |
| Red-zone targets | 25 |
| Red-zone target share | 18.1% |
| End-zone target share | 30.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 6.93 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 10 |
| Receiving TD luck | 3.07 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 10 of 48 |
| Yards per target | 12 of 48 |
| Target share | 44 of 48 |
| Air-yards share | 29 of 48 |
The offense threw it 731 times. He took 15.92% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Chris Godwin | 17.74% |
| Mike Evans ← | 15.92% |
| Rob Gronkowski | 12.43% |
| Leonard Fournette | 11.73% |
| Antonio Brown | 8.66% |
| Cameron Brate | 7.96% |
5 of his 16 games were blowouts, 50.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 26.52 in those and 10.83 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 16 against DET — 40.1 PPR on 12 targets and a 29.3% target share, in a game that finished 47-7. His worst was Week 6 against GB at 2, on 2 targets, final score 38-10. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 18.3; in the 10 decided by more, 13.9. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 11.8 points per game. He scored 15.54, 23.6% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 11 against 7.58 expected, a gap of 3.4.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 23-34 | 7.2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11.8% | 93% |
| 2 | CAR | 31-17 | 23.4 | 7 | 10 | 104 | 1 | 28.6% | 87% |
| 3 | DEN | 28-10 | 14.2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11.1% | 90% |
| 4 | LAC | 38-31 | 25.2 | 7 | 8 | 122 | 1 | 17.8% | 71% |
| 5 | CHI | 19-20 | 15.1 | 5 | 9 | 41 | 1 | 22% | 85% |
| 6 | GB | 38-10 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 7.4% | 78% |
| 7 | LV | 45-20 | 5.7 | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 | 4.9% | 86% |
| 8 | NYG | 25-23 | 16.5 | 5 | 7 | 55 | 1 | 17.5% | 90% |
| 9 | NO | 3-38 | 10.4 | 4 | 6 | 64 | 0 | 16.2% | 86% |
| 10 | CAR | 46-23 | 19.7 | 6 | 11 | 77 | 1 | 28.9% | 80% |
| 11 | LA | 24-27 | 15.9 | 5 | 9 | 49 | 1 | 19.1% | 88% |
| 12 | KC | 24-27 | 20 | 3 | 9 | 50 | 2 | 22% | 90% |
| 14 | MIN | 26-14 | 8.6 | 3 | 5 | 56 | 0 | 22.7% | 76% |
| 15 | ATL | 31-27 | 17 | 6 | 7 | 110 | 0 | 16.3% | 81% |
| 16 | DET | 47-7 | 40.1 | 10 | 12 | 181 | 2 | 29.3% | 81% |
| 17 | ATL | 44-27 | 7.6 | 3 | 4 | 46 | 0 | 10.5% | 16% |
| Receptions | 70 |
| Targets | 109 |
| Receiving yards | 1,006 |
| Touchdowns | 13 |
| Points per game | 15.54 |
| Yards per target | 9.23 |
| Catch rate | 64.22% |
| Snap share | 79.88% |
| Target share | 17.88% |
| Air-yards share | 22.91% |
| WOPR | 0.429 |
| RACR | 0.798 |
| Average depth of target | 12.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 10.6 |
| Total YAC | 265 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 126 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 3.12 |
| Red-zone targets | 22 |
| Red-zone target share | 20.4% |
| End-zone target share | 30.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 7.58 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 11 |
| Receiving TD luck | 3.42 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 14 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 12 of 51 |
| Target share | 43 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 37 of 51 |
The offense threw it 626 times. He took 17.99% of the targets. 0 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Mike Evans ← | 17.99% |
| Chris Godwin | 13.86% |
| Rob Gronkowski | 12.71% |
| Antonio Brown | 10.23% |
| Scott Miller | 8.75% |
| Leonard Fournette | 7.76% |
7 of his 16 games were blowouts, 40.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 14.24 in those and 18.28 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Mike Evans →