Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 11.82 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 169.9, usage worth 13.9.
27 years old · 5 seasons of experience · 2021 draft class
| ESPN | 169.9 |
| UNDERDOG | 216 |
| FFA | 552 |
| Goes around | Round 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | QB38 |
San Francisco 49ers returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1. Brock Purdy at quarterback, Kyle Shanahan as head coach, Klay Kubiak calling it. The offense projects to 33.7 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 27.7 rushes.
In: Mike Evans (wr1), De'Zhaun Stribling (wr2), Christian Kirk (wr4), Jacob Cowing (wr7), Kaelon Black (rb2). Out: Jauan Jennings (wr1), Kendrick Bourne (wr3), Brian Robinson Jr. (rb2).
The projected target split across the offense:
| De'Zhaun Stribling | 16.1% |
| Mike Evans | 11.8% |
| George Kittle | 11.5% |
| Ricky Pearsall | 10.4% |
| Christian Kirk | 9.2% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 8.9% |
Key additions: Signed WR Mike Evans from Bucs in free agency. Signed WR Christian Kirk in free agency. Drafted WR De'Zhaun Stribling in the 2nd round from Ole Miss. Drafted RB Kaelon Black in the 3rd round.
Key departures: WR Brandon Aiyuk (who did not play all of 2025 due to injury) is gone. WR Jauan Jennings is also gone. He has functioned as 49ers WR 1/2 for the past two seasons. RB Brian Robinson Jr left to ATL in free agency.
Notes: Stribling round 2 has opportunity to break out early. Mike Evans signing in free agency. Should be alpha WR1 but aging & injury risk. Potential sell high but should produce in 2026. Drafted RB Kaelon Black round 3 from Indiana. Black was not even invited to the NFL combine, but 49ers LOVE him. Could assume RB2 role immediately if he beats out Jordan James. Ricky Pearsall has an opportunity to break out as a WR2 but needs to stay healthy enough to do so. Signed Christian Kirk in offseason, veteran with no fantasy value but will take away targets. Kittle recovering from torn achilles. Drafted Wills the TE. Tonges should function as primary TE2, Wills will be TE3. CMC is a potential sell high candidate but know if healthy he is the number 1 overall RB in 2026.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Brock Purdy returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.7 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.6 att/g.
Base case 247.4 PPR points, with a bear case of 194.8 and a bull case of 293.7, and a comp mean of 239.7. The model puts 50% probability on him beating this and 50% on falling short. Drawn from 20 comparable quarterback seasons.
| Comparable season | What he actually scored | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott 2022 | 373.5 | 0.5 |
| Jon Kitna 2010 | 3.3 | 0.5 |
| Jay Cutler 2013 | 255.6 | 0.6 |
| Marcus Mariota 2015 | 259.9 | 0.6 |
| Lamar Jackson 2021 | 236.1 | 0.6 |
Cross-check against the dynasty market: his production ranks in the 38th percentile and his value in the 59th, which the engine reads as above production. Players with a similar production-against-value gap saw dynasty value move -19.6% over the following year, across 24 cases — a dynasty signal, not a 2026 scoring one.
Offensive environment: SF rates 25.4 against a league average of 23, 2.4 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -2.6 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | +1.9 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -8.4 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -15.3 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +101.1% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, QBs crash the following year 52% of the time (hold 48%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 52% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.8 elite seasons and 3.1 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 2024 | 11.4 | 61% | -12.4% |
| Baker Mayfield | 2022 | 10.1 | 61% | +114.9% |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2024 | 16.5 | 60% | -27.8% |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2023 | 15.9 | 59% | -5% |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 2022 | 10.6 | 59% | -36.2% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 4 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2021, round 1, pick 15 by NWE |
| College | Alabama |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| Height | 6′2″ |
| Weight | 217 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.72s |
| Vertical | 32″ |
| Broad jump | 116″ |
| 3-cone | 7.04s |
| Shuttle | 4.39s |
| Career PPR per game | 11.3 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.6 |
| Boom rate | 20.8% |
| Bust rate | 22.9% |
| Games missed per season | 0.4 |
| Injury history | Ankle |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | -0.07 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 10 against LA — 23.06 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 26-42. His worst was Week 16 against IND at -0.3, on 0 targets, final score 48-27. Across 11 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 3 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 19.1; in the 8 decided by more, 9.1. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 13.9 points per game. He scored 11.82, 21.3% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | NO | 26-21 | 21.76 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | ARI | 16-15 | 13.26 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | LA | 26-23 | 22.18 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | TB | 19-30 | 11.18 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | ATL | 20-10 | 5.18 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | HOU | 15-26 | 18.02 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | NYG | 34-24 | 15.8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 98% |
| 10 | LA | 26-42 | 23.06 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | ARI | 41-22 | -0.3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 0% | 9% |
| 13 | CLE | 26-8 | 0.2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 6% |
| 16 | IND | 48-27 | -0.3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 0% | 5% |
| Carries | 36 |
| Rushing yards | 60 |
| Touchdowns | 13 |
| Points per game | 11.82 |
| Yards per carry | 1.67 |
| Snap share | 74.36% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.48 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.9% |
| Goal-line carry share | 3.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.44 |
The offense threw it 574 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Christian McCaffrey | 24.76% |
| Jauan Jennings | 17.27% |
| George Kittle | 13.24% |
| Kendrick Bourne | 10.17% |
| Ricky Pearsall | 10.17% |
| Jake Tonges | 8.83% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 8 | 0 | 16.3 | — | 0% |
| Brock Purdy | 3 | 0 | -0.13 | — | 0% |
3 of his 11 games were blowouts, -0.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged -0.13 in those and 19.07 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 13 against HOU — 20 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 20-23. His worst was Week 3 against BUF at -1.12, on 0 targets, final score 10-47. Across 10 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13.2; in the 3 decided by more, 1.1. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 13.9 points per game. He scored 9.61, 30.9% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | BUF | 10-47 | -1.12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 20% |
| 6 | CHI | 16-35 | 0.24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 5% |
| 10 | MIN | 7-12 | 5.24 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | DET | 6-52 | 4.22 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | HOU | 20-23 | 20 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 73% |
| 14 | TEN | 10-6 | 5.1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | NYJ | 25-32 | 18.66 | 0 | 4 | 29 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | LV | 14-19 | 13.88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | TEN | 20-13 | 17.16 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 18 | IND | 23-26 | 12.7 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| Carries | 28 |
| Rushing yards | 92 |
| Touchdowns | 9 |
| Points per game | 9.61 |
| Yards per carry | 3.29 |
| Snap share | 79.8% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.07 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 2.9% |
| Goal-line carry share | 9.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.85 |
The offense threw it 546 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Brian Thomas | 25.48% |
| Evan Engram | 12.26% |
| Brenton Strange | 10.15% |
| Travis Etienne | 9.96% |
| Parker Washington | 9.77% |
| Christian Kirk | 9% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 8 | 0 | 12.12 | — | 0% |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2 | 0 | -0.44 | — | 0% |
3 of his 10 games were blowouts, 3.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 1.11 in those and 13.25 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 1 against PHI — 24.14 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 20-25. His worst was Week 5 against NO at -1.6, on 0 targets, final score 0-34. Across 11 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11.9; in the 3 decided by more, 3.8. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 15.1 points per game. He scored 9.67, 36% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 20-25 | 24.14 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | MIA | 17-24 | 13.74 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | NYJ | 15-10 | 13.34 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | DAL | 3-38 | 0.7 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 73% |
| 5 | NO | 0-34 | -1.6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 72% |
| 6 | LV | 17-21 | 5.9 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0% | 95% |
| 7 | BUF | 29-25 | 19.98 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | MIA | 17-31 | 12.24 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | WAS | 17-20 | 11.1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | IND | 6-10 | 7.3 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 0% | 89% |
| 12 | NYG | 7-10 | -0.44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 51% |
| Carries | 26 |
| Rushing yards | 96 |
| Touchdowns | 10 |
| Points per game | 9.67 |
| Yards per carry | 3.69 |
| Snap share | 89.09% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.49 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0 |
The offense threw it 557 times. 0 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Demario Douglas | 14.6% |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 12.01% |
| Hunter Henry | 11.28% |
| DeVante Parker | 10.17% |
| Kendrick Bourne | 10.17% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 9.43% |
2 of his 11 games were blowouts, -0.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged -0.45 in those and 11.88 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 12 against MIN — 23.28 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 26-33. His worst was Week 7 against CHI at 0.92, on 0 targets, final score 14-33. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14.1; in the 7 decided by more, 10.2. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 16.1 points per game. He scored 12.15, 24.4% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | 7-20 | 8.52 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | PIT | 17-14 | 12.68 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | BAL | 26-37 | 15.94 | 0 | 5 | 31 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | CHI | 14-33 | 0.92 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 0% | 35% |
| 8 | NYJ | 22-17 | 11.66 | 0 | 7 | 19 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | IND | 26-3 | 9.68 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | NYJ | 10-3 | 10.14 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | MIN | 26-33 | 23.28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | BUF | 10-24 | 12.5 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 14 | ARI | 27-13 | 7.3 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | LV | 24-30 | 7.48 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | CIN | 18-22 | 17.5 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | MIA | 23-21 | 16.26 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 18 | BUF | 23-35 | 16.22 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| Carries | 47 |
| Rushing yards | 102 |
| Touchdowns | 15 |
| Points per game | 12.15 |
| Yards per carry | 2.17 |
| Snap share | 95.36% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.31 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 6.5% |
| Goal-line carry share | 5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.73 |
The offense threw it 540 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Jakobi Meyers | 18.71% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 17.15% |
| Hunter Henry | 11.5% |
| Nelson Agholor | 10.33% |
| Kendrick Bourne | 9.36% |
| DeVante Parker | 9.16% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 13 | 0 | 13.01 | — | 0% |
| Bailey Zappe | 1 | 0 | 0.92 | — | 0% |
2 of his 14 games were blowouts, 6.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.3 in those and 14.14 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 17 against JAX — 22.28 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 50-10. His worst was Week 13 against BUF at 0.46, on 0 targets, final score 14-10. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11.8; in the 11 decided by more, 14. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 15.7 points per game. He scored 13.23, 15.3% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | 16-17 | 15.24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | NYJ | 25-6 | 7.44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | NO | 13-28 | 11.6 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | TB | 17-19 | 16.9 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | HOU | 25-22 | 11.54 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | DAL | 29-35 | 14.76 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | NYJ | 54-13 | 22.18 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 2 | 0% | 84% |
| 8 | LAC | 27-24 | 11.68 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | CAR | 24-6 | 5.96 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 90% |
| 10 | CLE | 45-7 | 19.92 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 87% |
| 11 | ATL | 25-0 | 10.38 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | TEN | 36-13 | 21.5 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 98% |
| 13 | BUF | 14-10 | 0.46 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | IND | 17-27 | 17.16 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | BUF | 21-33 | 5.1 | 0 | 6 | 33 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | JAX | 50-10 | 22.28 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 82% |
| 18 | MIA | 24-33 | 10.84 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| Carries | 44 |
| Rushing yards | 129 |
| Touchdowns | 22 |
| Points per game | 13.23 |
| Yards per carry | 2.93 |
| Snap share | 96.53% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.01 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 6.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.38 |
The offense threw it 535 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Jakobi Meyers | 24.05% |
| Hunter Henry | 14.31% |
| Kendrick Bourne | 13.36% |
| Nelson Agholor | 12.21% |
| Brandon Bolden | 9.35% |
| Jonnu Smith | 8.59% |
7 of his 17 games were blowouts, 48.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 15.67 in those and 11.76 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
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