Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 9.84 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 156.1, usage worth 9.4.
25 years old · 2 seasons of experience · 2024 draft class
| SLEEPER | 237.3 |
| ESPN | 170.1 |
| YAHOO | 114.6 |
| CBS | 102.3 |
| FFA | 473 |
| Goes around | Round 13, pick 12 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR60 |
| Bye week | 8 |
| ADP standard deviation | 61.7 picks |
Our board has him at 7.5 points, 0.5 per game — 2.6 catches, 36 yards, 0.2 TDs. That is WR6, 341 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 0.4 points per game to a ceiling of 0.9, with the median at 0.5. Boom rate 78%, bust rate 26%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 156.1 on consensus and our board has him 341. We rank him 184.9 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
San Francisco 49ers returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1. Brock Purdy at quarterback, Kyle Shanahan as head coach, Klay Kubiak calling it. The offense projects to 33.7 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 27.7 rushes.
In: Mike Evans (wr1), De'Zhaun Stribling (wr2), Christian Kirk (wr4), Jacob Cowing (wr7), Kaelon Black (rb2). Out: Jauan Jennings (wr1), Kendrick Bourne (wr3), Brian Robinson Jr. (rb2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 10.4%, with a bear case of 9.1% and a bull case of 11.6% and a full range of 8.9% to 14.1%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| De'Zhaun Stribling | 16.1% |
| Mike Evans | 11.8% |
| George Kittle | 11.5% |
| Ricky Pearsall ← | 10.4% |
| Christian Kirk | 9.2% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 8.9% |
Key additions: Signed WR Mike Evans from Bucs in free agency. Signed WR Christian Kirk in free agency. Drafted WR De'Zhaun Stribling in the 2nd round from Ole Miss. Drafted RB Kaelon Black in the 3rd round.
Key departures: WR Brandon Aiyuk (who did not play all of 2025 due to injury) is gone. WR Jauan Jennings is also gone. He has functioned as 49ers WR 1/2 for the past two seasons. RB Brian Robinson Jr left to ATL in free agency.
Notes: Stribling round 2 has opportunity to break out early. Mike Evans signing in free agency. Should be alpha WR1 but aging & injury risk. Potential sell high but should produce in 2026. Drafted RB Kaelon Black round 3 from Indiana. Black was not even invited to the NFL combine, but 49ers LOVE him. Could assume RB2 role immediately if he beats out Jordan James. Ricky Pearsall has an opportunity to break out as a WR2 but needs to stay healthy enough to do so. Signed Christian Kirk in offseason, veteran with no fantasy value but will take away targets. Kittle recovering from torn achilles. Drafted Wills the TE. Tonges should function as primary TE2, Wills will be TE3. CMC is a potential sell high candidate but know if healthy he is the number 1 overall RB in 2026.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Brock Purdy returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.7 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.6 att/g.
25 historical comps for WRs age ~23, prior share 15.8%, same team, OC continuity. Distribution: median 11.8%, p25-p75 [8.2%, 14.1%], tails [7.8%, 19.9%]. Closest comps: Van Jefferson 2022→2023 (LA: 14.7%→9.5%); Jonathan Mingo 2023→2024 (CAR: 18.5%→8.8%); Allen Lazard 2020→2021 (GB: 15.8%→12.1%). Adjustment: -5% from td_luck_breakout (TD regression risk)
self-anchored 45% to own 15.8% role (2yr), 55% to comp median 11.8%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: SF rates 25.4 against a league average of 23, 2.4 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -2.6 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | +1.9 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -8.4 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -15.3 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7 | Kendrick Bourne | +5.8 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -16.4% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 2021 | 8.5 | 76% | +18% |
| Rashod Bateman | 2022 | 8.9 | 67% | -17.3% |
| Rashod Bateman | 2021 | 8.6 | 66% | -1% |
| Rashod Bateman | 2023 | 5.1 | 65% | +46.5% |
| Jonathan Mingo | 2023 | 5.7 | 64% | -31.1% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 2 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2024, round 1, pick 31 by SFO |
| College | Florida |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| Height | 6′1″ |
| Weight | 189 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.41s |
| Vertical | 42″ |
| Broad jump | 129″ |
| 3-cone | 6.64s |
| Shuttle | 4.05s |
His best game was Week 3 against ARI — 19.7 PPR on 11 targets and a 28.9% target share, in a game that finished 16-15. His worst was Week 11 against ARI at 1, on 2 targets, final score 41-22. Across 9 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13.2; in the 4 decided by more, 5.7. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 9.4 points per game. He scored 9.84, 5.6% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | 17-13 | 14.8 | 4 | 7 | 108 | 0 | 20.6% | 84% |
| 2 | NO | 26-21 | 9.2 | 4 | 6 | 56 | 0 | 15.8% | 89% |
| 3 | ARI | 16-15 | 19.7 | 8 | 11 | 117 | 0 | 28.9% | 97% |
| 4 | JAX | 21-26 | 8.6 | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 | 13.5% | 56% |
| 11 | ARI | 41-22 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | 75% |
| 12 | CAR | 20-9 | 2.8 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 12.5% | 76% |
| 13 | CLE | 26-8 | 3.4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 13% | 87% |
| 15 | TEN | 37-24 | 15.6 | 6 | 7 | 96 | 0 | 25% | 58% |
| 17 | CHI | 42-38 | 13.5 | 5 | 8 | 85 | 0 | 24.2% | 81% |
| Receptions | 36 |
| Targets | 53 |
| Receiving yards | 528 |
| Carries | 2 |
| Rushing yards | -2 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 9.84 |
| Yards per target | 9.96 |
| Catch rate | 67.92% |
| Yards per carry | -1 |
| Snap share | 78.11% |
| Target share | 17.94% |
| Air-yards share | 31.79% |
| WOPR | 0.49 |
| RACR | 0.603 |
| Average depth of target | 14.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 12.6 |
| Total YAC | 74 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 68.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.97 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.19 |
| Red-zone targets | 4 |
| Red-zone target share | 4.4% |
| End-zone target share | 8.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.88 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.88 |
The offense threw it 574 times. He took 10.17% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Christian McCaffrey | 24.76% |
| Jauan Jennings | 17.27% |
| George Kittle | 13.24% |
| Kendrick Bourne | 10.17% |
| Ricky Pearsall ← | 10.17% |
| Jake Tonges | 8.83% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 7 | 36 | 8.53 | 9.86 | 16.69% |
| Mac Jones | 2 | 17 | 14.45 | 10.18 | 22.35% |
2 of his 9 games were blowouts, 5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.2 in those and 13.16 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 17 against DET — 28.7 PPR on 10 targets and a 27.8% target share, in a game that finished 34-40. His worst was Week 13 against BUF at 0, on 1 targets, final score 10-35. Across 11 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12.1; in the 6 decided by more, 5.5. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 8.2 points per game. He scored 8.5, 14.7% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | KC | 18-28 | 5.1 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 16.1% | 76% |
| 8 | DAL | 30-24 | 11.7 | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 | 16% | 59% |
| 10 | TB | 23-20 | 17.3 | 4 | 6 | 73 | 1 | 17.6% | 64% |
| 11 | SEA | 17-20 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7.1% | 59% |
| 12 | GB | 10-38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 67% |
| 13 | BUF | 10-35 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5.9% | 73% |
| 14 | CHI | 38-13 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 7.7% | 49% |
| 15 | LA | 6-12 | 2.6 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 12.9% | 56% |
| 16 | MIA | 17-29 | 7.7 | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 10.8% | 72% |
| 17 | DET | 34-40 | 28.7 | 8 | 10 | 141 | 1 | 27.8% | 70% |
| 18 | ARI | 24-47 | 18.9 | 6 | 8 | 69 | 1 | 19% | 92% |
| Receptions | 31 |
| Targets | 46 |
| Receiving yards | 400 |
| Carries | 3 |
| Rushing yards | 45 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 8.5 |
| Yards per target | 8.7 |
| Catch rate | 67.39% |
| Yards per carry | 15 |
| Snap share | 67% |
| Target share | 12.81% |
| Air-yards share | 18.38% |
| WOPR | 0.322 |
| RACR | 0.604 |
| Average depth of target | 11.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 9.2 |
| Total YAC | 114 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 89 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.68 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.2 |
| Red-zone targets | 7 |
| Red-zone target share | 8.5% |
| End-zone target share | 6.7% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.68 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.32 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.04 |
The offense threw it 533 times. He took 9.54% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Jauan Jennings | 23.44% |
| George Kittle | 19.5% |
| Deebo Samuel | 16.8% |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 9.75% |
| Ricky Pearsall ← | 9.54% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 3.94% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 9 | 38 | 8.29 | 8.71 | 13.54% |
| Brandon Allen | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | 0% |
| Joshua Dobbs | 1 | 8 | 18.9 | 8.63 | 19% |
4 of his 11 games were blowouts, 21.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.1 in those and 12.06 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Ricky Pearsall →