Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 1.42 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 170, usage worth 4.
24 years old · 3 seasons of experience · 2023 draft class
| ESPN | 170 |
| FFA | 682 |
| Goes around | Round 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR104 |
Our board has him at 0.4 points, 0 per game — 0.2 catches, 2 yards. That is WR6, 389 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 0 points per game to a ceiling of 0, with the median at 0. Boom rate 40%, bust rate 20%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 170 on consensus and our board has him 389. We rank him 219 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
New York Giants returns 2 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, te1, hc, oc. Jaxson Dart at quarterback, Jim Harbaugh as head coach, Matt Nagy calling it. The offense projects to 30.3 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 27.7 rushes.
In: Darnell Mooney (wr2), Malachi Fields (wr4), Calvin Austin III (wr5), Isaiah Likely (te1). Out: Jaxon Dart (qb), Russell Wilson (qb), Wan'Dale Robinson (wr2), Gunner Olszewski (wr4), Daniel Bellinger (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 3.6%, with a bear case of 1.5% and a bull case of 5.6% and a full range of 1.5% to 7.7%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Malik Nabers | 25.9% |
| Darius Slayton | 11.2% |
| Darnell Mooney | 10.4% |
| Malachi Fields | 8.6% |
| Theo Johnson | 8.2% |
| Cam Skattebo | 7.5% |
What the offense looks like: NY still reamins a question mark but there is a lot of potential in this offense if Jaxson Dart turns into the franchise QB. He has a strong arm, is mobile, and plays with a certain type of swagger not all QBs play with. Despite what Ravens fans say, bringing Harbaugh & Nagy into NY is a very good thing. A future HOF coach that is putting his reputation on the line for this team to succeed. Harbaugh has mainly focused on the defense so far, which could imply he thinks the offense is in a good spot, but we will have to see.
Key additions: Darnell Mooney WR from ATL, Calvin Austin III WR from Steelers, Drafted WR Malachi Fields 3rd round, signed TE Isaiah Likely in free agency, New Coach Jim Harbaugh & new OC Matt Nagy.
Key departures: Russell Wilson left to free agency. Won'Dale Robinson left in free agency to the Tennessee Titans (opens up significant amount of targets)
Notes: Giants fired Daboll & brought in Harbaugh. Harbaugh should revamp offense. Brought it Isaiah Likely from Baltimore who seriously hurts Theo Johnson dynasty value (likely should be good). NY did not draft RB & Skattebo will be the starter week 1 of 2026 unless they add someone. He could have a monster season with his Jaxson Dart connection growing. Jaxson Dart gets to play with Malik Nabers for the first time & connection should be electric. Darnell Mooney is a great signing & is on a 1 year prove it deal in NY. If Dart play continues, Mooney will have value.
How the volume number was reached: New QB Jaxson Dart, avg 24.2 att/g over 2025; Regressed 65% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30.2 att/g; New OC Matt Nagy — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Jim Harbaugh.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~24, prior share 10.8%, team change, OC change, QB change. Distribution: median 4.3%, p25-p75 [0.0%, 8.2%], tails [0.0%, 12.3%]. Closest comps: Terrace Marshall 2023→2024 (CAR→LV: 12.2%→3.4%); Van Jefferson 2023→2024 (LA→PIT: 12.6%→10.0%); Richie James 2020→2021 (SF: 13.8%→0.0%).
arrival self-anchored 21% to own 10.8% role (1yr)
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: NYG rates 21.8 against a league average of 23, 1.1 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +4.4 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | +8.3 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | +5.7 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +7.9 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -25.8% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, WRs recover only 15% of the time (keep falling 85%).
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dyami Brown | 2023 | 2.2 | 83% | +129.7% |
| Denzel Mims | 2021 | 2.1 | 75% | +9.7% |
| Jalen Tolbert | 2023 | 4.3 | 75% | +60.3% |
| Denzel Mims | 2022 | 3.3 | 74% | -18.6% |
| David Bell | 2023 | 5.4 | 74% | -22.4% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 2 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2023, round 3, pick 73 by NYG |
| College | Tennessee |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Height | 6′0″ |
| Weight | 176 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.4s |
| Vertical | 40″ |
| Broad jump | 135″ |
| Career PPR per game | 3.2 |
| Week-to-week variation | 1.2 |
| Boom rate | 5% |
| Bust rate | 45% |
| Games missed per season | 0 |
His best game was Week 6 against PHI — 4.7 PPR on 5 targets and a 19.2% target share, in a game that finished 34-17. His worst was Week 15 against WAS at 0, on 1 targets, final score 21-29. Across 6 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 3 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 1.3; in the 3 decided by more, 1.6. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 4 points per game. He scored 1.42, 64.4% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | NO | 14-26 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7.7% | 47% |
| 6 | PHI | 34-17 | 4.7 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 19.2% | 42% |
| 7 | DEN | 32-33 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | 32% |
| 9 | SF | 24-34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 11 | GB | 20-27 | 3.8 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 13.8% | 61% |
| 15 | WAS | 21-29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.8% | 6% |
| Receptions | 5 |
| Targets | 14 |
| Receiving yards | 35 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 1.42 |
| Yards per target | 2.5 |
| Catch rate | 35.71% |
| Snap share | 31.33% |
| Target share | 7.75% |
| Air-yards share | 16.38% |
| WOPR | 0.232 |
| RACR | 0.128 |
| Average depth of target | 20 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 0.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.6 |
| Total YAC | 2 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 4.8 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -1.51 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 1.5% |
| End-zone target share | 2.9% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.15 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.15 |
The offense threw it 526 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 27.89% |
| Theo Johnson | 14.74% |
| Darius Slayton | 12.55% |
| Tyrone Tracy | 9.56% |
| Malik Nabers | 6.97% |
| Cam Skattebo | 6.37% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Dart | 5 | 10 | 0.94 | 1.7 | 6.54% |
| Jameis Winston | 1 | 4 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 13.8% |
1 of his 6 games were blowouts, 55.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.7 in those and 1.27 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 10 against CAR — 7.9 PPR on 4 targets and a 12.5% target share, in a game that finished 17-20. His worst was Week 18 against PHI at 0, on 1 targets, final score 13-20. Across 10 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 1.8; in the 4 decided by more, 0.9. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 3.4 points per game. He scored 1.42, 57.9% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 6-28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.6% | 23% |
| 3 | CLE | 21-15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | 14% |
| 4 | DAL | 15-20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.6% | 19% |
| 6 | CIN | 7-17 | 1.6 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 11.1% | 81% |
| 7 | PHI | 3-28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.7% | 5% |
| 10 | CAR | 17-20 | 7.9 | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 | 12.5% | 73% |
| 13 | DAL | 20-27 | 2.8 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6.3% | 29% |
| 14 | NO | 11-14 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4.3% | 23% |
| 16 | ATL | 7-34 | 1.9 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 5.4% | 20% |
| 18 | PHI | 13-20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.6% | 34% |
| Receptions | 8 |
| Targets | 19 |
| Receiving yards | 62 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 1.42 |
| Yards per target | 3.26 |
| Catch rate | 42.11% |
| Snap share | 32.1% |
| Target share | 5.51% |
| Air-yards share | 15.43% |
| WOPR | 0.192 |
| RACR | 0.402 |
| Average depth of target | 19.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 0.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7 |
| Total YAC | 6 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 11.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.66 |
The offense threw it 591 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Malik Nabers | 30.69% |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 25.27% |
| Darius Slayton | 12.82% |
| Tyrone Tracy | 9.57% |
| Theo Johnson | 7.76% |
| Devin Singletary | 4.33% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 6 | 12 | 1.58 | 3.75 | 5.92% |
| Drew Lock | 4 | 7 | 1.17 | 2.43 | 4.9% |
3 of his 10 games were blowouts, 13.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 0.63 in those and 1.78 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 12 against NE — 15.9 PPR on 6 targets and a 25% target share, in a game that finished 10-7. His worst was Week 15 against NO at 0, on 3 targets, final score 6-24. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.4; in the 7 decided by more, 1.4. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 5.3 points per game. He scored 4.64, 12.2% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL | 0-40 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.4% | 36% |
| 2 | ARI | 31-28 | 10.9 | 2 | 2 | 89 | 0 | 5.7% | 21% |
| 4 | SEA | 3-24 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 6.3% | 60% |
| 6 | BUF | 9-14 | 5.1 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 12.9% | 73% |
| 7 | WAS | 14-7 | 9.5 | 2 | 5 | 75 | 0 | 18.5% | 71% |
| 9 | LV | 6-30 | 3.9 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 17.2% | 59% |
| 10 | DAL | 17-49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.8% | 30% |
| 11 | WAS | 31-19 | 1.7 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 7.7% | 53% |
| 12 | NE | 10-7 | 15.9 | 5 | 6 | 109 | 0 | 25% | 60% |
| 14 | GB | 24-22 | 3.3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 15% | 64% |
| 15 | NO | 6-24 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8.8% | 71% |
| 17 | LA | 25-26 | 5.5 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 10.3% | 77% |
| 18 | PHI | 27-10 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6.3% | 13% |
| Receptions | 23 |
| Targets | 40 |
| Receiving yards | 373 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 4.64 |
| Yards per target | 9.32 |
| Catch rate | 57.5% |
| Snap share | 52.92% |
| Target share | 10.84% |
| Air-yards share | 25.77% |
| WOPR | 0.343 |
| RACR | 0.447 |
| Average depth of target | 21 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 14.1 |
| Total YAC | 48 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 68 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.24 |
The offense threw it 518 times. He took 8.26% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Darius Slayton | 16.32% |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 16.12% |
| Darren Waller | 15.29% |
| Saquon Barkley | 12.4% |
| Jalin Hyatt ← | 8.26% |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 6.82% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy DeVito | 6 | 20 | 4.13 | 7.4 | 12.92% |
| Tyrod Taylor | 4 | 15 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 12% |
| Daniel Jones | 3 | 5 | 4.63 | 19.8 | 5.13% |
6 of his 13 games were blowouts, 13.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 1.4 in those and 8.37 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
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