Kaelon Black
Overview
Board Oct 12Week 5 rest-of-season review, Oct 12, 2026. The three reads are where our backtested model, the betting market and his 2026 production each place him at RB; our board rank is the call.
Where his stats say he could finish from here: RB45 to RB62. Our rank stays the call.
2026 so far5 games
- 43% rush success rate (13th of 66 RBs)
- 0 of SF's 9 carries inside the 5
- 3 PPR points a game (61st of 66 RBs)
Ranked among 66 qualified RBs this season.
80% range 2.4–8.9 half-PPR points a game. Biggest inputs: college target share -0.8, preseason ADP -0.3, Week 5 sportsbook lines -0.3, team play volume +0.3. The model informs the rank; it does not set it.
Week 6
Lines Oct 14SF
WASUpdated Oct 14, 2026, built on a SF team total of 29. Rank is among every RB we project this week.
Allowed to RBs per game across 5 games. Best games against them: Jonathan Taylor (W4, 22.7 PPR, 20 car 95 ry, 1/4 2 rec); George Holani (W3, 10.8 PPR, 3 car 10 ry, 5/5 48 rec); Saquon Barkley (W1, 9 PPR, 15 car 83 ry, 1/2 -3 rec).
EPA ranks entering Week 6: #22 against the pass, #16 against the run (1 = best defense).
Runs by directionRB rushing points allowed a game
Big number: receiving fantasy points WAS allows a game to RBs in that zone. # = its rank of 32. Green tag = Kaelon Black's share of his targets in that zone this season. Depth is air yards at the catch point; 5 games, through Week 5. Tap a zone for the detail.
6-16 rush
Game log
2026 · through W5Every gametap a game for the detail
SF +3.5 (closing) · total 47.5 · indoors · 7 days rest · prime time · division game
Projected 6.4 (RB44) · SF -12.5 (closing) · total 44.5 · 69°F, wind 5 mph · 10 days rest · Injury report: game status Q, practice LP
Projected 6.3 (RB42) · SF -7.5 (closing) · total 48.5 · 70°F, wind 4 mph · 7 days rest · division game
Projected 4.9 (RB50) · SF -3 (closing) · total 48.5 · 87°F, wind 4 mph · 7 days rest
Projected 2.3 (RB58) · SF +3 (closing) · total 46.5 · 7 days rest · division game · Injury report: practice FP
D# = the opponent's rank against RBs entering that week (1 = stingiest, 32 = softest). Finish = his rank at RB that week.
Usage
What changedlast 3 full games vs. before
| W1, W2 | W3, W4, W5 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snap share | 38.0% | 19.7% | −18.3 |
| Carry share | 36.3% | 19.8% | −16.5 |
| Target share | 1.5% | 1.3% | −0.2 |
| Carries a game | 10.5 | 5.3 | −5.2 |
| Targets a game | 0.5 | 0.3 | −0.2 |
Games he left injured are left out of both sides.
SF backfieldshare of team carries, 2026
Season to date, games each player played.
Role details2026, through Week 5
Advanced
Percentile against the RBs on our charts (each stat's minimum is next to it), 2026 through Week 5. 50 is the middle of the pack. Tap a bubble for his rank.
Expected vs. actualPPR, from this season's play-by-play
0 TDs on 0.57 expected. Expected points price every target by depth and field position and every carry by field position. Do touchdowns regress? ›
Splits
As a receiver2026 charted plays, through Week 5
| Situation | Tgt | Rec-Yds-TD | Yds/tgt | EPA/tgt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All targets | 2 | 1-5-0 | 2.55.4 | -0.17-0.02 |
| Score within 7100% of targets | 2 | 1-5-0 | 2.55.3 | -0.17-0.08 |
| No blitz100% of targets | 2 | 1-5-0 | 2.55.4 | -0.17-0.01 |
| With motion100% of targets | 2 | 1-5-0 | 2.55.3 | -0.17-0.03 |
| Screens50% of targets | 1 | 0-0-0 | 0.05.2 | -0.52-0.09 |
Small grey number = every RB in that situation. Green or red = a clear gap either way. 2 of his 2 charted targets were catchable; 0 drops, 0 of 1 contested caught.
As a runner2026 charted carries, through Week 5
| Situation | Car | Yds-TD | YPC | Success |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All carries | 37 | 136-0 | 3.74.1 | 43%39% |
| Red zone19% of carries | 7 | 18-0 | 2.62.6 | 43%40% |
| Inside the 103% of carries | 1 | 6-0 | 6.01.7 | 100%47% |
| Third down11% of carries | 4 | 8-0 | 2.04.0 | 25%52% |
| Score within 768% of carries | 25 | 85-0 | 3.44.1 | 52%38% |
| Leading by 8+32% of carries | 12 | 51-0 | 4.34.5 | 25%40% |
| Light box (6 or fewer)59% of carries | 22 | 70-0 | 3.24.5 | 45%40% |
Box counts from FTN charting. Small grey number = every RB in that situation.
Team
SFSan Francisco 49ers offense, 2026 through Week 5. Rank 1 = most. Scheme rates from FTN charting through Week 5.
Game by gamescore, implied total, pass rate (over expected), QB
| Week | Score | Implied | Pass rate | QB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1vs LA | 27-7 | 22.0 | 53%+1.8 | Purdy34 att |
| W2vs MIA | 35-13 | 28.5 | 47%−2.9 | Purdy22 att |
| W3vs ARI | 36-30 | 28.0 | 55%+3.1 | Purdy27 att |
| W4vs DEN | 24-14 | 25.8 | 47%−7.2 | Purdy30 att |
| W5vs SEA | 32-29 | 21.8 | 60%−1.4 | Purdy29 att |
Depth chartRB, Oct 14
Scheduleeach defense's current rank vs RBs
Green = soft, red = stingy (1 = stingiest, 32 = softest), ranked on fantasy points allowed to RBs so far. Gold underline = fantasy playoffs. Does strength of schedule matter? ›
Head coach: Kyle Shanahan. QB: Brock Purdy (most pass attempts, Week 5).
Charts
Kaelon Black is highlighted on each chart. Swipe for more; tap a dot for the player. Every chart saves and shares as an image on the Charts page.
Career
Season by season
| Year | G | Rushing / receiving | Pts/g | xFP/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026SF | 5 | 37-136-0 rush1-5-0 rec on 2 tgt | 2.9RB70 | 4.5−7.6 |
Under points a game: his rank at RB in points a game (8+ games; 2026: 2+ games). xFP = expected PPR a game from his usage; under it, the season's points over expected. Routes = share of team dropbacks he ran a route (through 2025).
Health
No injury designation. Not on the Sleeper injury list as of Oct 10 and not on the Week 6 practice report so far.
2026 injury reportofficial, week by week
✓ = not listed. Letters = game status (Q, D, O) or worst practice that week (LP limited, DNP did not practice). Tap a week for the detail.
Teammates on the report
Our current notes first, then Sleeper designations. What happens when a starter is ruled out? ›
Value
Market Oct 10Market value on a 0–10,000 scale, through Oct 10, 2026. Faint stretches are estimates between real readings. Gold = peak.
Teal dot = today (3,839). Box = the middle half of outcomes, white line = the median, whiskers = 10th to 90th percentile. RBs about 25 valued near #125 overall: real 1-year moves since 2022, weighted by exact age and market rank (about 96 players' worth).
162.9 overall, RB55. CBS 155.2 · ESPN 170.5 · Underdog 209.3
Profile
College production
| Year | G | Rec-Yds-TD | Yds share | Dominator |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Indiana | 13 | 3-25-0 | 0.8% | 0.4 |
| 2024Indiana | 11 | 4-6-0 | 0.2% | 0.1 |
| 2023James Madison | 12 | 21-204-3 | 5.9% | 7.5 |
| 2022James Madison | 9 | 17-177-2 | 8.6% | 9.1 |
Share = his share of his team's receiving yards. Dominator = average of his share of receiving yards and TDs.