Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 11.34 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 135.8, usage worth 9.2.
25 years old · 3 seasons of experience · 2023 draft class
| SLEEPER | 138.3 |
| ESPN | 150.2 |
| YAHOO | 128.5 |
| UNDERDOG | 160.7 |
| CBS | 126.3 |
| FFA | 156 |
| Goes around | Round 12, pick 4 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB42 |
| Bye week | 11 |
| ADP standard deviation | 10.9 picks |
Our board has him at 87 points, 5.4 per game — 451 rushing yards, 3.9 rushing TDs, 8.7 catches. That is RB6, 156 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 2.9 points per game to a ceiling of 10.7, with the median at 5.4. Boom rate 98%, bust rate 46%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 135.8 on consensus and our board has him 156. We rank him 20.2 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
Seattle Seahawks returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing rb1, oc. Sam Darnold at quarterback, Mike Macdonald as head coach, Brian Fleury calling it. The offense projects to 30.4 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 28.4 rushes.
In: Rashid Shaheed (wr2), Emmanuel Henderson Jr (wr6), Levi Wentz (wr7), Jadarian Price (rb1), Emmanuel Wilson (rb3). Out: Rasheed Shaheed (wr2), Kenneth Walker III (rb1), Zach Charbonett (rb2).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| Jadarian Price | 57.9% |
| Zach Charbonnet ← | 30.1% |
| Emmanuel Wilson | 6.7% |
| George Holani | 5.4% |
What the offense looks like: High powered offense that SHOULD be ok without OC Klint Kubiak (could possibly be a concern). Capable of putting up 40 points any game.
Key additions: Extended WR Rashid Shaheed on 3 year deal. Signed RB Emmanuel Wilson from Packers in free agency (HIGHLY CAPABLE BACKUP), Drafted RB Jadarian Price in the 1st round from ND.
Key departures: SuperBowl MVP RB Kenneth Walker III left for Chiefs in free agency. OC Klint Kubiak left to become Raiders HC this offseason.
Notes: RB Price round 1 RB. with Charbonnet recovering from torn ACL. Lose OC Kubiak to Raiders. JSN top dynasty asset (ELITE). Shaheed could see expanded role in 2026 with full offseason with team. Charbonnet has never truly broken out & torn ACL places concern on productivity when back from injury. Signed RB Emmanuel Wilson in free agency & he could really hurt Price production early (this is a real concern). Cooper Kupp is dust & totally cooked. Tory Horton could be a break out candidate in 2026. Darnold needs to be rostered in all formats & decent low end QB1 with a high powered offense.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Sam Darnold returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (28.2 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30.4 att/g; New OC Brian Fleury — pass rate and tempo may shift.
| Projected carry share | 30.1% |
| Projected carries per game | 7 |
| Projected carries, full season | 119 |
| Last season, carries per game | 11.1 |
That is a reduction of 4.1 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 28.4 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: SEA rates 25 against a league average of 23, 2 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +2.5 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | -1.7 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | +7.2 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +1.8 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Zach Charbonnet study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +0.3% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Dillon | 2022 | 9.9 | 80% | -19.5% |
| Devin Singletary | 2021 | 11.6 | 71% | -3.4% |
| Cam Akers | 2022 | 9.4 | 70% | -39.1% |
| A.J. Dillon | 2021 | 10.9 | 69% | -1.3% |
| Brian Robinson | 2024 | 11.4 | 68% | -26.2% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 0 gained value, 4 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2023, round 2, pick 52 by SEA |
| College | UCLA |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′0″ |
| Weight | 214 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.53s |
| Vertical | 37″ |
| Broad jump | 122″ |
| Career PPR per game | 9.6 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.8 |
| Boom rate | 20% |
| Bust rate | 25% |
| Games missed per season | 0.3 |
| Injury history | Foot |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.49 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 17 against CAR — 26.2 PPR on 20 touches and a 7.7% target share, in a game that finished 27-10. His worst was Week 2 against PIT at 1, on 15 touches, final score 31-17. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10.6; in the 7 decided by more, 12.2. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 9.2 points per game. He scored 11.34, 16.7% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | 13-17 | 10.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 47 | 1 | 0% | 58% |
| 2 | PIT | 31-17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 55% |
| 4 | ARI | 23-20 | 12.4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 39 | 1 | 8.3% | 47% |
| 5 | TB | 35-38 | 11.8 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 36 | 1 | 5.9% | 56% |
| 6 | JAX | 20-12 | 4.7 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 12 | 24 | 0 | 4.2% | 60% |
| 7 | HOU | 27-19 | 19.5 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 49 | 2 | 6.9% | 51% |
| 9 | WAS | 38-14 | 5.6 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 25 | 0 | 4.2% | 35% |
| 10 | ARI | 44-22 | 14.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 83 | 1 | 0% | 37% |
| 11 | LA | 19-21 | 6.7 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 11 | 37 | 0 | 4.8% | 43% |
| 12 | TEN | 30-24 | 9.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 35 | 1 | 0% | 31% |
| 13 | MIN | 26-0 | 11.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 52 | 1 | 0% | 39% |
| 14 | ATL | 37-9 | 8.6 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 7 | 46 | 0 | 10% | 41% |
| 15 | IND | 18-16 | 3.1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 31 | 0 | 3% | 55% |
| 16 | LA | 38-37 | 17.4 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 9 | 32 | 1 | 12.9% | 56% |
| 17 | CAR | 27-10 | 26.2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 110 | 2 | 7.7% | 53% |
| 18 | SF | 13-3 | 18.7 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 17 | 74 | 1 | 15.4% | 57% |
| Receptions | 20 |
| Targets | 24 |
| Receiving yards | 144 |
| Carries | 184 |
| Rushing yards | 730 |
| Touchdowns | 12 |
| Points per game | 11.34 |
| Yards per target | 6 |
| Catch rate | 83.33% |
| Yards per carry | 3.97 |
| Snap share | 48.38% |
| Target share | 5.21% |
| Air-yards share | 1.22% |
| WOPR | 0.087 |
| RACR | 1.545 |
| Average depth of target | 1.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 1.1 |
| Total YAC | 123 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 91.7 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.04 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.07 |
| Red-zone targets | 3 |
| Red-zone target share | 3.8% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 45.6% |
| Goal-line carry share | 64.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.8 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.8 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 9.81 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 28 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 21 of 49 |
| Target share | 38 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 8 of 49 |
The offense threw it 481 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 35.82% |
| Cooper Kupp | 15.38% |
| A.J. Barner | 14.95% |
| Kenneth Walker | 7.91% |
| Rashid Shaheed | 5.71% |
| Elijah Arroyo | 5.71% |
5 of his 16 games were blowouts, 36.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 13.18 in those and 10.64 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 14 against ARI — 38.3 PPR on 29 touches and a 24.1% target share, in a game that finished 30-18. His worst was Week 7 against ATL at 1.9, on 8 touches, final score 34-14. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.1; in the 9 decided by more, 12.7. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 9.9 points per game. He scored 10.99, 9.3% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | 26-20 | 12.1 | 2 | 3 | 29 | 8 | 12 | 1 | 12% | 34% |
| 2 | NE | 23-20 | 17.9 | 5 | 5 | 31 | 14 | 38 | 1 | 11.6% | 96% |
| 3 | MIA | 24-3 | 25.7 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 18 | 91 | 2 | 12.1% | 84% |
| 4 | DET | 29-42 | 10.4 | 5 | 5 | 39 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 9.4% | 42% |
| 5 | NYG | 20-29 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 12.8% | 36% |
| 6 | SF | 24-36 | 4.5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 2.1% | 31% |
| 7 | ATL | 34-14 | 1.9 | 1 | 1 | -5 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 3.6% | 55% |
| 8 | BUF | 10-31 | 11.4 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 14.8% | 45% |
| 9 | LA | 20-26 | 5.3 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 8.8% | 25% |
| 11 | SF | 20-17 | 2.5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 6.5% | 32% |
| 12 | ARI | 16-6 | 2.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 0% | 38% |
| 13 | NYJ | 26-21 | 12.1 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 4 | 28 | 1 | 10.3% | 45% |
| 14 | ARI | 30-18 | 38.3 | 7 | 7 | 59 | 22 | 134 | 2 | 24.1% | 80% |
| 15 | GB | 13-30 | 13.6 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 8 | 54 | 1 | 12.9% | 80% |
| 16 | MIN | 24-27 | 3.3 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 4.8% | 22% |
| 17 | CHI | 6-3 | 10.6 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 15 | 57 | 0 | 13.6% | 75% |
| 18 | LA | 30-25 | 9.1 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 14 | 59 | 0 | 0% | 76% |
| Receptions | 42 |
| Targets | 52 |
| Receiving yards | 340 |
| Carries | 135 |
| Rushing yards | 569 |
| Touchdowns | 9 |
| Points per game | 10.99 |
| Yards per target | 6.54 |
| Catch rate | 80.77% |
| Yards per carry | 4.21 |
| Snap share | 52.71% |
| Target share | 9.38% |
| Air-yards share | -2.14% |
| WOPR | 0.125 |
| RACR | -3.662 |
| Average depth of target | -0.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.9 |
| Total YAC | 377 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 92.3 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.44 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.66 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 1.7% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 42.1% |
| Goal-line carry share | 48.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.14 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.14 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 6.32 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 29 of 46 |
| Yards per target | 16 of 46 |
| Target share | 22 of 46 |
| Air-yards share | 39 of 46 |
The offense threw it 593 times. He took 9.14% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 24.08% |
| DK Metcalf | 18.98% |
| Tyler Lockett | 13.01% |
| Noah Fant | 11.25% |
| Kenneth Walker | 9.31% |
| Zach Charbonnet ← | 9.14% |
4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 28.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 13.15 in those and 9.11 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 13 against DAL — 16.9 PPR on 21 touches and a 5.3% target share, in a game that finished 35-41. His worst was Week 16 against TEN at 0.6, on 4 touches, final score 20-17. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.7; in the 6 decided by more, 4.9. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 7.8 points per game. He scored 6.63, 14.6% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 13-30 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0% | 24% |
| 2 | DET | 37-31 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 5.4% | 26% |
| 3 | CAR | 37-27 | 5.5 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 9 | 46 | 0 | 5.7% | 43% |
| 4 | NYG | 24-3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 11.5% | 24% |
| 6 | CIN | 13-17 | 3.9 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 5.4% | 24% |
| 8 | CLE | 24-20 | 8.4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 53 | 0 | 5.6% | 59% |
| 9 | BAL | 3-37 | 2.3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 4% | 55% |
| 10 | WAS | 29-26 | 10.2 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 6 | 44 | 0 | 11.9% | 52% |
| 11 | LA | 16-17 | 12.9 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 15 | 47 | 0 | 15.8% | 85% |
| 12 | SF | 13-31 | 9.8 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 14 | 47 | 0 | 14.8% | 88% |
| 13 | DAL | 35-41 | 16.9 | 1 | 2 | 39 | 19 | 60 | 1 | 5.3% | 61% |
| 14 | SF | 16-28 | 5.8 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 44 | 0 | 3.2% | 42% |
| 15 | PHI | 20-17 | 1.6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 3.1% | 44% |
| 16 | TEN | 20-17 | 0.6 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5.6% | 42% |
| 17 | PIT | 23-30 | 9.1 | 5 | 5 | 39 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 15.2% | 57% |
| 18 | ARI | 21-20 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 7.7% | 53% |
| Receptions | 33 |
| Targets | 40 |
| Receiving yards | 209 |
| Carries | 108 |
| Rushing yards | 462 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 6.63 |
| Yards per target | 5.22 |
| Catch rate | 82.5% |
| Yards per carry | 4.28 |
| Snap share | 48.69% |
| Target share | 7.51% |
| Air-yards share | -1.11% |
| WOPR | 0.106 |
| RACR | -1.136 |
| Average depth of target | -1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -1.2 |
| Total YAC | 248 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 88.4 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.29 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.44 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 1.5% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 31.4% |
| Goal-line carry share | 26.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.14 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.14 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 3.83 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 43 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 25 of 49 |
| Target share | 35 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 36 of 49 |
The offense threw it 575 times. He took 7.33% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Tyler Lockett | 22.34% |
| DK Metcalf | 21.79% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 17.03% |
| Noah Fant | 7.88% |
| Zach Charbonnet ← | 7.33% |
| Kenneth Walker | 6.78% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 14 | 38 | 7.05 | 5.39 | 8.14% |
| Drew Lock | 2 | 2 | 3.7 | 2 | 3.15% |
4 of his 16 games were blowouts, 17.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.55 in those and 7.66 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Zach Charbonnet →