Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 8.7 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 146.2, usage worth 8.3.
27 years old · 4 seasons of experience · 2022 draft class
| SLEEPER | 158.4 |
| ESPN | 158.6 |
| YAHOO | 129 |
| UNDERDOG | 132.2 |
| CBS | 138.9 |
| FFA | 140 |
| Goes around | Round 13, pick 2 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR58 |
| Bye week | 11 |
| ADP standard deviation | 14.7 picks |
Our board has him at 132.3 points, 8.1 per game — 40.5 catches, 520 yards, 4.3 TDs. That is WR5, 139 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 6 points per game to a ceiling of 15.3, with the median at 8.1. Boom rate 89%, bust rate 26%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 146.2 on consensus and our board has him 139. We rank him 7.2 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
Seattle Seahawks returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing rb1, oc. Sam Darnold at quarterback, Mike Macdonald as head coach, Brian Fleury calling it. The offense projects to 30.4 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 28.4 rushes.
In: Rashid Shaheed (wr2), Emmanuel Henderson Jr (wr6), Levi Wentz (wr7), Jadarian Price (rb1), Emmanuel Wilson (rb3). Out: Rasheed Shaheed (wr2), Kenneth Walker III (rb1), Zach Charbonett (rb2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 10.8%, with a bear case of 7.6% and a bull case of 12.5% and a full range of 4.3% to 13.8%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 27.3% |
| Cooper Kupp | 15.3% |
| AJ Barner | 11.9% |
| Rashid Shaheed ← | 10.8% |
| Jadarian Price | 9% |
| Emmanuel Henderson Jr | 6.2% |
What the offense looks like: High powered offense that SHOULD be ok without OC Klint Kubiak (could possibly be a concern). Capable of putting up 40 points any game.
Key additions: Extended WR Rashid Shaheed on 3 year deal. Signed RB Emmanuel Wilson from Packers in free agency (HIGHLY CAPABLE BACKUP), Drafted RB Jadarian Price in the 1st round from ND.
Key departures: SuperBowl MVP RB Kenneth Walker III left for Chiefs in free agency. OC Klint Kubiak left to become Raiders HC this offseason.
Notes: RB Price round 1 RB. with Charbonnet recovering from torn ACL. Lose OC Kubiak to Raiders. JSN top dynasty asset (ELITE). Shaheed could see expanded role in 2026 with full offseason with team. Charbonnet has never truly broken out & torn ACL places concern on productivity when back from injury. Signed RB Emmanuel Wilson in free agency & he could really hurt Price production early (this is a real concern). Cooper Kupp is dust & totally cooked. Tory Horton could be a break out candidate in 2026. Darnold needs to be rostered in all formats & decent low end QB1 with a high powered offense.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Sam Darnold returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (28.2 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30.4 att/g; New OC Brian Fleury — pass rate and tempo may shift.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~?, prior share 14.9%, team change, OC change. Distribution: median 10.5%, p25-p75 [5.4%, 13.2%], tails [0.0%, 15.3%]. Closest comps: Emmanuel Sanders 2021→2022 (BUF: 16.1%→0.0%); Mack Hollins 2022→2023 (LV→ATL: 16.8%→10.8%); Mack Hollins 2023→2024 (ATL→BUF: 16.8%→10.5%).
arrival self-anchored 32% to own 14.9% role (2yr)
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: SEA rates 25 against a league average of 23, 2 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +0.6 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | -0.2 · neutral |
| Weeks 12–17 | +1.1 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -9.6 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Rashid Shaheed study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +0.5% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mecole Hardman | 2021 | 8.3 | 57% | +7.8% |
| Elijah Moore | 2023 | 8.3 | 56% | -1.6% |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 2022 | 8 | 55% | -43.7% |
| Kalif Raymond | 2022 | 6.8 | 54% | +1.9% |
| Darnell Mooney | 2023 | 5.6 | 54% | +82.9% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 1 lost it and 2 held roughly flat.
| Career PPR per game | 9.2 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.7 |
| Boom rate | 23.1% |
| Bust rate | 30.8% |
| Games missed per season | 0.5 |
| Injury history | Thigh, Knee |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.7 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 5 against NYG — 21.4 PPR on 5 targets and a 16.1% target share, in a game that finished 26-14. His worst was Week 12 against TEN at 0.5, on 2 targets, final score 30-24. Across 18 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.3; in the 11 decided by more, 9. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 8.3 points per game. He scored 8.7, 0.8% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 1 against 2.2 expected, a gap of -1.2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 13-20 | 9.3 | 6 | 9 | 33 | 0 | 22% | 85% |
| 2 | SF | 21-26 | 15.2 | 4 | 5 | 52 | 1 | 14.7% | 70% |
| 3 | SEA | 13-44 | 8.2 | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 | 14.6% | 74% |
| 4 | BUF | 19-31 | 9.2 | 4 | 5 | 47 | 0 | 20% | 70% |
| 5 | NYG | 26-14 | 21.4 | 4 | 5 | 114 | 1 | 16.1% | 67% |
| 6 | NE | 19-25 | 6.8 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 0 | 23.1% | 61% |
| 7 | CHI | 14-26 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 40 | 0 | 29% | 77% |
| 8 | TB | 3-23 | 14.5 | 9 | 12 | 75 | 0 | 24% | 78% |
| 9 | LA | 10-34 | 11.8 | 5 | 9 | 68 | 0 | 37.5% | 83% |
| 10 | ARI | 44-22 | 3.3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 8.3% | 34% |
| 11 | LA | 19-21 | 4.9 | 2 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 11.9% | 54% |
| 12 | TEN | 30-24 | 0.5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | 56% |
| 13 | MIN | 26-0 | 2.6 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 13% | 48% |
| 14 | ATL | 37-9 | 16.7 | 4 | 5 | 67 | 0 | 16.7% | 51% |
| 15 | IND | 18-16 | 12.1 | 5 | 7 | 74 | 0 | 21.2% | 68% |
| 16 | LA | 38-37 | 9.1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.2% | 54% |
| 17 | CAR | 27-10 | 1.8 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3.8% | 18% |
| 18 | SF | 13-3 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3.8% | 48% |
| Receptions | 59 |
| Targets | 92 |
| Receiving yards | 687 |
| Carries | 9 |
| Rushing yards | 69 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 8.7 |
| Yards per target | 7.47 |
| Catch rate | 64.13% |
| Yards per carry | 7.67 |
| Snap share | 60.89% |
| Target share | 16.16% |
| Air-yards share | 22.42% |
| WOPR | 0.401 |
| RACR | 0.642 |
| Average depth of target | 11.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 10.3 |
| Total YAC | 33 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 64.3 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.24 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.05 |
| Red-zone targets | 10 |
| Red-zone target share | 19.6% |
| End-zone target share | 13% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.2 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.2 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.05 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 41 of 44 |
| Yards per target | 29 of 44 |
| Target share | 43 of 44 |
| Air-yards share | 38 of 44 |
The offense threw it 591 times. He took 11.72% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Chris Olave | 27.71% |
| Juwan Johnson | 18.12% |
| Rashid Shaheed ← | 11.72% |
| Alvin Kamara | 6.93% |
| Devaughn Vele | 6.93% |
| Brandin Cooks | 4.44% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | 10 | 42 | 7.36 | 7.24 | 13.95% |
| Spencer Rattler | 7 | 45 | 11.16 | 7.91 | 19.93% |
| unknown | 1 | 5 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 11.9% |
7 of his 18 games were blowouts, 37.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.41 in those and 8.27 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 2 against DAL — 20.9 PPR on 4 targets and a 26.7% target share, in a game that finished 44-19. His worst was Week 3 against PHI at 0, on 5 targets, final score 12-15. Across 6 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 1 time.
His usage that season was worth 12.1 points per game. He scored 13.63, 12.7% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 1.08 expected, a gap of -1.1.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | 47-10 | 16.3 | 3 | 5 | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20.8% | 68% |
| 2 | DAL | 44-19 | 20.9 | 4 | 4 | 96 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 26.7% | 66% |
| 3 | PHI | 12-15 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21.7% | 75% |
| 4 | ATL | 24-26 | 17.7 | 8 | 11 | 83 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 30.6% | 77% |
| 5 | KC | 13-26 | 18.6 | 4 | 9 | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 28.1% | 87% |
| 6 | TB | 27-51 | 8.3 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 18.4% | 81% |
| Receptions | 20 |
| Targets | 41 |
| Receiving yards | 349 |
| Carries | 6 |
| Rushing yards | 29 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 13.63 |
| Yards per target | 8.51 |
| Catch rate | 48.78% |
| Yards per carry | 4.83 |
| Snap share | 75.67% |
| Target share | 24.38% |
| Air-yards share | 50.72% |
| WOPR | 0.72 |
| RACR | 0.607 |
| Average depth of target | 17.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 12.2 |
| Total YAC | 106 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 63 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.99 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.19 |
| Red-zone targets | 4 |
| Red-zone target share | 9.3% |
| End-zone target share | 11.8% |
| Red-zone carry share | 4.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.08 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.08 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.12 |
The offense threw it 551 times. He took 7.99% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Alvin Kamara | 17.35% |
| Juwan Johnson | 12.87% |
| Chris Olave | 8.58% |
| Foster Moreau | 8.38% |
| Rashid Shaheed ← | 7.99% |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 6.82% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 5 | 34 | 14.7 | 9.94 | 25.58% |
| Spencer Rattler | 1 | 7 | 8.3 | 1.57 | 18.4% |
3 of his 6 games were blowouts, 55.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 15.17 in those and 8.85 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 8 against IND — 24.3 PPR on 3 targets and a 10.3% target share, in a game that finished 38-27. His worst was Week 12 against ATL at 2.9, on 5 targets, final score 15-24. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11.7; in the 7 decided by more, 9.1. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 8.6 points per game. He scored 10.51, 22.3% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN | 16-15 | 21 | 5 | 6 | 89 | 1 | 18.2% | 54% |
| 2 | CAR | 20-17 | 10.3 | 4 | 4 | 63 | 0 | 11.8% | 49% |
| 3 | GB | 17-18 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5.9% | 72% |
| 4 | TB | 9-26 | 6.3 | 3 | 7 | 33 | 0 | 18.4% | 58% |
| 5 | NE | 34-0 | 4.8 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 8% | 57% |
| 6 | HOU | 13-20 | 18.3 | 2 | 6 | 85 | 1 | 13% | 76% |
| 7 | JAX | 24-31 | 7.2 | 4 | 8 | 28 | 0 | 15.1% | 70% |
| 8 | IND | 38-27 | 24.3 | 3 | 3 | 153 | 1 | 10.3% | 27% |
| 9 | CHI | 24-17 | 5.2 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 9.4% | 51% |
| 10 | MIN | 19-27 | 7.4 | 5 | 9 | 24 | 0 | 22.5% | 69% |
| 12 | ATL | 15-24 | 2.9 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 13.5% | 26% |
| 15 | NYG | 24-6 | 6.6 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 14.3% | 58% |
| 16 | LA | 22-30 | 18.4 | 5 | 9 | 70 | 1 | 22.5% | 82% |
| 17 | TB | 23-13 | 3.4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 8.8% | 54% |
| 18 | ATL | 48-17 | 15.5 | 3 | 4 | 65 | 1 | 16% | 67% |
| Receptions | 46 |
| Targets | 75 |
| Receiving yards | 719 |
| Carries | 7 |
| Rushing yards | 37 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 10.51 |
| Yards per target | 9.59 |
| Catch rate | 61.33% |
| Yards per carry | 5.29 |
| Snap share | 58% |
| Target share | 13.85% |
| Air-yards share | 22.3% |
| WOPR | 0.364 |
| RACR | 0.886 |
| Average depth of target | 14.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 12.3 |
| Total YAC | 151 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 98.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.81 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.08 |
| Red-zone targets | 7 |
| Red-zone target share | 10.3% |
| End-zone target share | 9.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.43 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.43 |
The offense threw it 606 times. He took 13.02% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Chris Olave | 23.96% |
| Alvin Kamara | 14.93% |
| Rashid Shaheed ← | 13.02% |
| Michael Thomas | 11.11% |
| Juwan Johnson | 10.24% |
| Taysom Hill | 6.94% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 14 | 66 | 10.73 | 10.53 | 13.23% |
| Jameis Winston | 1 | 9 | 7.4 | 2.67 | 22.5% |
4 of his 15 games were blowouts, 21.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.3 in those and 11.73 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 15 against ATL — 18.5 PPR on 4 targets and a 21.1% target share, in a game that finished 21-18. His worst was Week 9 against BAL at 0, on 0 targets, final score 13-27. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10; in the 5 decided by more, 6.2. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 5.3 points per game. He scored 8.38, 73% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | CIN | 26-30 | 10.4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3.2% | 13% |
| 7 | ARI | 34-42 | 12.3 | 1 | 1 | 53 | 1 | 2.2% | 14% |
| 8 | LV | 24-0 | 6.8 | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 | 10% | 23% |
| 9 | BAL | 13-27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 10% |
| 10 | PIT | 10-20 | 2.2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3.6% | 13% |
| 11 | LA | 27-20 | 1.8 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 7.4% | 49% |
| 12 | SF | 0-13 | 7.9 | 2 | 3 | 53 | 0 | 10% | 53% |
| 13 | TB | 16-17 | 11.5 | 4 | 4 | 75 | 0 | 14.3% | 61% |
| 15 | ATL | 21-18 | 18.5 | 3 | 4 | 95 | 1 | 21.1% | 71% |
| 16 | CLE | 17-10 | 8.1 | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 | 35.7% | 43% |
| 17 | PHI | 20-10 | 13.9 | 6 | 6 | 79 | 0 | 26.1% | 68% |
| 18 | CAR | 7-10 | 7.1 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 16% | 83% |
| Receptions | 28 |
| Targets | 34 |
| Receiving yards | 488 |
| Carries | 4 |
| Rushing yards | 57 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 8.38 |
| Yards per target | 14.35 |
| Catch rate | 82.35% |
| Yards per carry | 14.25 |
| Snap share | 41.75% |
| Target share | 12.47% |
| Air-yards share | 15.63% |
| WOPR | 0.297 |
| RACR | 1.153 |
| Average depth of target | 11.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 11.1 |
| Total YAC | 176 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 138.4 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.59 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.38 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 1.6% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.13 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.13 |
The offense threw it 512 times. He took 6.94% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Chris Olave | 24.29% |
| Alvin Kamara | 15.71% |
| Juwan Johnson | 13.27% |
| Jarvis Landry | 7.96% |
| Rashid Shaheed ← | 6.94% |
| Marquez Callaway | 6.53% |
1 of his 12 games were blowouts, 6.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.8 in those and 9.96 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Rashid Shaheed →