Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 7.27 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 187.2, usage worth 8.4.
33 years old · 9 seasons of experience · 2017 draft class
| SLEEPER | 230.2 |
| ESPN | 168.8 |
| UNDERDOG | 209.7 |
| CBS | 162.6 |
| FFA | 232 |
| Goes around | Round 16, pick 7 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR145 |
| ADP standard deviation | 37.4 picks |
Our board has him at 93.6 points, 5.7 per game — 33.9 catches, 417 yards, 3 TDs. That is WR6, 222 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 3.5 points per game to a ceiling of 8.2, with the median at 5.7. Boom rate 44%, bust rate 40%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 187.2 on consensus and our board has him 222. We rank him 34.8 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
Seattle Seahawks returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing rb1, oc. Sam Darnold at quarterback, Mike Macdonald as head coach, Brian Fleury calling it. The offense projects to 30.4 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 28.4 rushes.
In: Rashid Shaheed (wr2), Emmanuel Henderson Jr (wr6), Levi Wentz (wr7), Jadarian Price (rb1), Emmanuel Wilson (rb3). Out: Rasheed Shaheed (wr2), Kenneth Walker III (rb1), Zach Charbonett (rb2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 15.3%, with a bear case of 14% and a bull case of 16.8% and a full range of 12% to 20.7%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 27.3% |
| Cooper Kupp ← | 15.3% |
| AJ Barner | 11.9% |
| Rashid Shaheed | 10.8% |
| Jadarian Price | 9% |
| Emmanuel Henderson Jr | 6.2% |
What the offense looks like: High powered offense that SHOULD be ok without OC Klint Kubiak (could possibly be a concern). Capable of putting up 40 points any game.
Key additions: Extended WR Rashid Shaheed on 3 year deal. Signed RB Emmanuel Wilson from Packers in free agency (HIGHLY CAPABLE BACKUP), Drafted RB Jadarian Price in the 1st round from ND.
Key departures: SuperBowl MVP RB Kenneth Walker III left for Chiefs in free agency. OC Klint Kubiak left to become Raiders HC this offseason.
Notes: RB Price round 1 RB. with Charbonnet recovering from torn ACL. Lose OC Kubiak to Raiders. JSN top dynasty asset (ELITE). Shaheed could see expanded role in 2026 with full offseason with team. Charbonnet has never truly broken out & torn ACL places concern on productivity when back from injury. Signed RB Emmanuel Wilson in free agency & he could really hurt Price production early (this is a real concern). Cooper Kupp is dust & totally cooked. Tory Horton could be a break out candidate in 2026. Darnold needs to be rostered in all formats & decent low end QB1 with a high powered offense.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Sam Darnold returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (28.2 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30.4 att/g; New OC Brian Fleury — pass rate and tempo may shift.
25 historical comps for WRs age ~30, prior share 20.7%, same team, OC change. Distribution: median 11.9%, p25-p75 [8.3%, 15.9%], tails [3.1%, 26.2%]. Closest comps: Brandin Cooks 2023→2024 (DAL: 18.5%→16.6%); Jarvis Landry 2022→2023 (NO: 24.4%→0.0%); A.J. Green 2021→2022 (ARI: 16.8%→9.6%).
self-anchored 58% to own 20.7% role (3yr), 42% to comp median 11.9%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: SEA rates 25 against a league average of 23, 2 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +0.6 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | -0.2 · neutral |
| Weeks 12–17 | +1.1 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -9.6 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 4 | Jordan Whittington | +11.1 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -38% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, WRs recover only 15% of the time (keep falling 85%).
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 2024 | 7.1 | 75% | -33.8% |
| Tyler Lockett | 2023 | 11.9 | 64% | -28.6% |
| Amari Cooper | 2024 | 9.4 | 55% | -35.8% |
| Tyler Boyd | 2024 | 5.2 | 55% | -37.2% |
| Amari Cooper | 2023 | 15.1 | 53% | -18.9% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 0 gained value, 5 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2017, round 3, pick 69 by LAR |
| College | Eastern Washington |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| Height | 6′2″ |
| Weight | 204 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.62s |
| Vertical | 31″ |
| Broad jump | 116″ |
| 3-cone | 6.75s |
| Shuttle | 4.08s |
| Career PPR per game | 15.1 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.6 |
| Boom rate | 12.7% |
| Bust rate | 22.2% |
| Games missed per season | 0.8 |
| Injury history | Ankle |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.02 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 2 against PIT — 16 PPR on 9 targets and a 30% target share, in a game that finished 31-17. His worst was Week 17 against CAR at 1.6, on 3 targets, final score 27-10. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.9; in the 7 decided by more, 7.7. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 8.4 points per game. He scored 7.27, 3.7% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | 13-17 | 3.5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 13.6% | 88% |
| 2 | PIT | 31-17 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 90 | 0 | 30% | 69% |
| 3 | NO | 44-13 | 5.1 | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 15% | 54% |
| 4 | ARI | 23-20 | 6.6 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 20.8% | 74% |
| 5 | TB | 35-38 | 11.9 | 6 | 9 | 59 | 0 | 26.5% | 89% |
| 6 | JAX | 20-12 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 40 | 1 | 12.5% | 71% |
| 7 | HOU | 27-19 | 2.2 | 1 | 1 | 32 | 0 | 3.4% | 75% |
| 10 | ARI | 44-22 | 9.4 | 2 | 2 | 74 | 0 | 16.7% | 53% |
| 11 | LA | 19-21 | 5.3 | 3 | 7 | 23 | 0 | 16.7% | 81% |
| 12 | TEN | 30-24 | 4.4 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 16% | 77% |
| 13 | MIN | 26-0 | 5.4 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 17.4% | 76% |
| 14 | ATL | 37-9 | 11.5 | 2 | 3 | 35 | 1 | 10% | 69% |
| 15 | IND | 18-16 | 9.6 | 5 | 7 | 46 | 0 | 21.2% | 75% |
| 16 | LA | 38-37 | 6.9 | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 | 12.9% | 93% |
| 17 | CAR | 27-10 | 1.6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 11.5% | 88% |
| 18 | SF | 13-3 | 4.9 | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 11.5% | 77% |
| Receptions | 47 |
| Targets | 70 |
| Receiving yards | 593 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 7.27 |
| Yards per target | 8.47 |
| Catch rate | 67.14% |
| Snap share | 75.56% |
| Target share | 15.98% |
| Air-yards share | 14.24% |
| WOPR | 0.34 |
| RACR | 1.862 |
| Average depth of target | 7.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.4 |
| Total YAC | 293 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 85 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.48 |
| Red-zone targets | 15 |
| Red-zone target share | 19% |
| End-zone target share | 16.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.23 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.23 |
The offense threw it 481 times. He took 15.38% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 35.82% |
| Cooper Kupp ← | 15.38% |
| A.J. Barner | 14.95% |
| Kenneth Walker | 7.91% |
| Rashid Shaheed | 5.71% |
| Elijah Arroyo | 5.71% |
5 of his 16 games were blowouts, 28.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.6 in those and 6.93 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 1 against DET — 32 PPR on 21 targets and a 43.8% target share, in a game that finished 20-26. His worst was Week 15 against SF at 0, on 3 targets, final score 12-6. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 15.7; in the 4 decided by more, 12.3. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 13.7 points per game. He scored 14.58, 0.7% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 20-26 | 32 | 14 | 21 | 110 | 1 | 43.8% | 100% |
| 2 | ARI | 10-41 | 7.7 | 4 | 6 | 37 | 0 | 22.2% | 52% |
| 8 | MIN | 30-20 | 16.1 | 5 | 8 | 51 | 1 | 23.5% | 58% |
| 9 | SEA | 26-20 | 21.4 | 11 | 14 | 104 | 0 | 33.3% | 92% |
| 10 | MIA | 15-23 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 80 | 0 | 15.9% | 90% |
| 11 | NE | 28-22 | 28.6 | 6 | 10 | 106 | 2 | 37% | 71% |
| 12 | PHI | 20-37 | 20 | 8 | 11 | 60 | 1 | 32.4% | 95% |
| 13 | NO | 21-14 | 4.7 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 26.1% | 91% |
| 14 | BUF | 44-42 | 20.2 | 5 | 8 | 92 | 1 | 26.7% | 83% |
| 15 | SF | 12-6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11.5% | 85% |
| 16 | NYJ | 19-9 | 5.4 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 15.8% | 77% |
| 17 | ARI | 13-9 | 3.9 | 1 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 10.7% | 84% |
| Receptions | 67 |
| Targets | 100 |
| Receiving yards | 710 |
| Carries | 2 |
| Rushing yards | 10 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 14.58 |
| Yards per target | 7.1 |
| Catch rate | 67% |
| Yards per carry | 5 |
| Snap share | 81.5% |
| Target share | 24.91% |
| Air-yards share | 26.14% |
| WOPR | 0.558 |
| RACR | 0.931 |
| Average depth of target | 7.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.6 |
| Total YAC | 269 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 107.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.32 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.02 |
| Red-zone targets | 12 |
| Red-zone target share | 12.8% |
| End-zone target share | 15.8% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.43 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.57 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.04 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 20 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 42 of 51 |
| Target share | 25 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 36 of 51 |
The offense threw it 559 times. He took 18.48% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Puka Nacua | 19.59% |
| Cooper Kupp ← | 18.48% |
| Demarcus Robinson | 11.83% |
| Tutu Atwell | 11.46% |
| Colby Parkinson | 9.06% |
| Tyler Johnson | 7.58% |
2 of his 12 games were blowouts, 15.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 13.85 in those and 15.73 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 6 against ARI — 27.8 PPR on 9 targets and a 42.9% target share, in a game that finished 26-9. His worst was Week 11 against SEA at 2.1, on 1 targets, final score 17-16. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13.9; in the 6 decided by more, 13.5. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 13.7 points per game. He scored 13.7, 3.7% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 4 against 5.5 expected, a gap of -1.5.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | PHI | 14-23 | 19.8 | 8 | 12 | 118 | 0 | 35.3% | 95% |
| 6 | ARI | 26-9 | 27.8 | 7 | 9 | 148 | 1 | 42.9% | 100% |
| 7 | PIT | 17-24 | 6.9 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 0 | 25.9% | 100% |
| 8 | DAL | 20-43 | 6.1 | 4 | 10 | 21 | 0 | 31.3% | 100% |
| 9 | GB | 3-20 | 6.8 | 2 | 7 | 48 | 0 | 25.9% | 84% |
| 11 | SEA | 17-16 | 2.1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3.4% | 27% |
| 12 | ARI | 37-14 | 4.8 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 16.1% | 88% |
| 13 | CLE | 36-19 | 15.9 | 6 | 8 | 39 | 1 | 23.5% | 98% |
| 14 | BAL | 31-37 | 25.5 | 8 | 10 | 115 | 1 | 25.6% | 97% |
| 15 | WAS | 28-20 | 25.1 | 8 | 8 | 111 | 1 | 25% | 100% |
| 16 | NO | 30-22 | 10.9 | 6 | 12 | 52 | 0 | 37.5% | 100% |
| 17 | NYG | 26-25 | 12.7 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 1 | 17.6% | 98% |
| Receptions | 59 |
| Targets | 95 |
| Receiving yards | 737 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | -3 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 13.7 |
| Yards per target | 7.76 |
| Catch rate | 62.11% |
| Yards per carry | -3 |
| Snap share | 90.58% |
| Target share | 25.83% |
| Air-yards share | 26.32% |
| WOPR | 0.572 |
| RACR | 1.076 |
| Average depth of target | 8.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7 |
| Total YAC | 322 |
| Broken tackles | 5 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 90.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.81 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.08 |
| Red-zone targets | 23 |
| Red-zone target share | 28% |
| End-zone target share | 29% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 5.5 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.5 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.05 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 22 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 33 of 51 |
| Target share | 15 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 35 of 51 |
The offense threw it 583 times. He took 17.12% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Puka Nacua | 28.83% |
| Cooper Kupp ← | 17.12% |
| Tyler Higbee | 12.61% |
| Tutu Atwell | 12.07% |
| Kyren Williams | 8.65% |
| Demarcus Robinson | 7.03% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 11 | 88 | 14.33 | 7.83 | 25.83% |
| Brett Rypien | 1 | 7 | 6.8 | 6.86 | 25.9% |
5 of his 12 games were blowouts, 37.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 12.28 in those and 13.87 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 1 against BUF — 31.8 PPR on 15 targets and a 36.6% target share, in a game that finished 10-31. His worst was Week 10 against ARI at 2.9, on 5 targets, final score 17-27. Across 9 games he cleared 20 points 6 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 3 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 25; in the 6 decided by more, 21.1. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 18.6 points per game. He scored 22.38, 20.3% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 10-31 | 31.8 | 13 | 15 | 128 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 36.6% | 100% |
| 2 | ATL | 31-27 | 31.8 | 11 | 14 | 108 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 40% | 98% |
| 3 | ARI | 20-12 | 16.4 | 4 | 6 | 44 | 1 | 20 | 1 | 24% | 100% |
| 4 | SF | 9-24 | 26.2 | 14 | 19 | 122 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 39.6% | 100% |
| 5 | DAL | 10-22 | 25.9 | 7 | 10 | 125 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 23.8% | 98% |
| 6 | CAR | 24-10 | 16.7 | 7 | 8 | 80 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 25.8% | 97% |
| 8 | SF | 14-31 | 22.9 | 8 | 12 | 79 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 37.5% | 95% |
| 9 | TB | 13-16 | 26.8 | 8 | 9 | 127 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 34.6% | 100% |
| 10 | ARI | 17-27 | 2.9 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13.5% | 67% |
| Receptions | 75 |
| Targets | 98 |
| Receiving yards | 812 |
| Carries | 9 |
| Rushing yards | 52 |
| Touchdowns | 7 |
| Points per game | 22.38 |
| Yards per target | 8.29 |
| Catch rate | 76.53% |
| Yards per carry | 5.78 |
| Snap share | 95% |
| Target share | 30.6% |
| Air-yards share | 36.1% |
| WOPR | 0.711 |
| RACR | 1.149 |
| Average depth of target | 7.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 5.2 |
| Total YAC | 422 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 103.8 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.82 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.15 |
| Red-zone targets | 11 |
| Red-zone target share | 16.2% |
| End-zone target share | 20.7% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.04 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.96 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.06 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 1 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 27 of 51 |
| Target share | 2 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 13 of 51 |
The offense threw it 529 times. He took 18.99% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Tyler Higbee | 20.93% |
| Cooper Kupp ← | 18.99% |
| Ben Skowronek | 11.82% |
| Allen Robinson | 10.08% |
| Van Jefferson | 8.53% |
| Tutu Atwell | 6.78% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 8 | 93 | 24.81 | 8.74 | 32.74% |
| John Wolford | 1 | 5 | 2.9 | -0.2 | 13.5% |
2 of his 9 games were blowouts, 27.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 27.35 in those and 25 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 7 against DET — 37.6 PPR on 13 targets and a 31.7% target share, in a game that finished 28-19. His worst was Week 4 against ARI at 11.4, on 13 targets, final score 20-37. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 14 times and came in under 8 points 0 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 26; in the 11 decided by more, 25.8. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 19.2 points per game. He scored 25.85, 37.4% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 18 against 12.43 expected, a gap of 5.6.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 34-14 | 23.8 | 7 | 10 | 108 | 1 | 38.5% | 94% |
| 2 | IND | 27-24 | 36.8 | 9 | 11 | 163 | 2 | 37.9% | 100% |
| 3 | TB | 34-24 | 30.6 | 9 | 12 | 96 | 2 | 31.6% | 82% |
| 4 | ARI | 20-37 | 11.4 | 5 | 13 | 64 | 0 | 31.7% | 96% |
| 5 | SEA | 26-17 | 16.2 | 7 | 10 | 92 | 0 | 28.6% | 88% |
| 6 | NYG | 38-11 | 34 | 9 | 12 | 130 | 2 | 40% | 83% |
| 7 | DET | 28-19 | 37.6 | 10 | 13 | 156 | 2 | 31.7% | 97% |
| 8 | HOU | 38-22 | 24.5 | 7 | 9 | 115 | 1 | 26.5% | 87% |
| 9 | TEN | 16-28 | 20.5 | 11 | 13 | 95 | 0 | 27.7% | 100% |
| 10 | SF | 10-31 | 23.2 | 11 | 13 | 122 | 0 | 31% | 100% |
| 12 | GB | 28-36 | 18.6 | 7 | 10 | 96 | 0 | 25.6% | 100% |
| 13 | JAX | 37-7 | 26.9 | 8 | 10 | 129 | 1 | 27% | 94% |
| 14 | ARI | 30-23 | 31.3 | 13 | 15 | 123 | 1 | 50% | 90% |
| 15 | SEA | 20-10 | 34.7 | 9 | 13 | 136 | 2 | 44.8% | 94% |
| 16 | MIN | 30-23 | 21.3 | 10 | 13 | 109 | 0 | 35.1% | 97% |
| 17 | BAL | 20-19 | 21.5 | 6 | 7 | 95 | 1 | 20% | 100% |
| 18 | SF | 24-27 | 26.6 | 7 | 7 | 118 | 1 | 21.9% | 98% |
| Receptions | 145 |
| Targets | 191 |
| Receiving yards | 1,947 |
| Carries | 4 |
| Rushing yards | 18 |
| Touchdowns | 16 |
| Points per game | 25.85 |
| Yards per target | 10.19 |
| Catch rate | 75.92% |
| Yards per carry | 4.5 |
| Snap share | 94.12% |
| Target share | 32.33% |
| Air-yards share | 33.12% |
| WOPR | 0.715 |
| RACR | 1.291 |
| Average depth of target | 8.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7.6 |
| Total YAC | 846 |
| Broken tackles | 10 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 124.8 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 6.64 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.08 |
| Red-zone targets | 48 |
| Red-zone target share | 35.3% |
| End-zone target share | 31.7% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 12.43 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 18 |
| Receiving TD luck | 5.57 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.05 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 1 of 48 |
| Yards per target | 4 of 48 |
| Target share | 1 of 48 |
| Air-yards share | 16 of 48 |
The offense threw it 606 times. He took 31.73% of the targets. 0 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Cooper Kupp ← | 31.73% |
| Van Jefferson | 14.78% |
| Tyler Higbee | 14.12% |
| Robert Woods | 11.46% |
| Odell Beckham | 7.97% |
| Darrell Henderson | 6.64% |
5 of his 17 games were blowouts, 27.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 23.86 in those and 26.02 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 3 against BUF — 25.7 PPR on 10 targets and a 32.3% target share, in a game that finished 32-35. His worst was Week 6 against SF at 4.1, on 9 targets, final score 16-24. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13.3; in the 7 decided by more, 15. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 15 points per game. He scored 14.05, 7.2% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 2 against 3.5 expected, a gap of -1.5.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL | 20-17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 | 17.9% | 85% |
| 2 | PHI | 37-19 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 81 | 0 | 23.1% | 86% |
| 3 | BUF | 32-35 | 25.7 | 9 | 10 | 107 | 1 | 32.3% | 90% |
| 4 | NYG | 17-9 | 17.7 | 5 | 7 | 69 | 1 | 21.9% | 86% |
| 5 | WAS | 30-10 | 11.6 | 5 | 8 | 66 | 0 | 27.6% | 82% |
| 6 | SF | 16-24 | 4.1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 24.3% | 92% |
| 7 | CHI | 24-10 | 11.9 | 6 | 6 | 43 | 0 | 19.4% | 86% |
| 8 | MIA | 17-28 | 22 | 11 | 20 | 110 | 0 | 35.1% | 97% |
| 10 | SEA | 23-16 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 50 | 0 | 19.4% | 53% |
| 11 | TB | 27-24 | 25.5 | 11 | 13 | 145 | 0 | 26.5% | 72% |
| 12 | SF | 20-23 | 6.1 | 2 | 5 | 41 | 0 | 16.7% | 89% |
| 13 | ARI | 38-28 | 15.3 | 8 | 9 | 73 | 0 | 20.5% | 65% |
| 14 | NE | 24-3 | 14.3 | 5 | 5 | 33 | 1 | 20.8% | 62% |
| 15 | NYJ | 20-23 | 8.9 | 5 | 5 | 39 | 0 | 16.7% | 81% |
| 16 | SEA | 9-20 | 14.6 | 8 | 9 | 66 | 0 | 22% | 80% |
| Receptions | 92 |
| Targets | 124 |
| Receiving yards | 974 |
| Carries | 4 |
| Rushing yards | 33 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 14.05 |
| Yards per target | 7.85 |
| Catch rate | 74.19% |
| Yards per carry | 8.25 |
| Snap share | 80.4% |
| Target share | 22.95% |
| Air-yards share | 21.13% |
| WOPR | 0.492 |
| RACR | 1.629 |
| Average depth of target | 6.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 4.9 |
| Total YAC | 525 |
| Broken tackles | 12 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 94.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.89 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.15 |
| Red-zone targets | 13 |
| Red-zone target share | 22% |
| End-zone target share | 21.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.5 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.5 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 26 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 33 of 51 |
| Target share | 23 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 44 of 51 |
The offense threw it 590 times. He took 22.06% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Robert Woods | 22.95% |
| Cooper Kupp ← | 22.06% |
| Josh Reynolds | 14.41% |
| Gerald Everett | 11.03% |
| Tyler Higbee | 10.68% |
| Malcolm Brown | 5.87% |
3 of his 15 games were blowouts, 19.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 13.63 in those and 13.25 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
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