Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 8.14 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 199.8, usage worth 4.7.
23 years old · 1 season of experience · 2025 draft class
| SLEEPER | 228.7 |
| ESPN | 170.8 |
| UNDERDOG | 213.2 |
| FFA | 233 |
| Goes around | Round 17, pick 8 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR157 |
| ADP standard deviation | 40.9 picks |
Our board has him at 99.5 points, 6.1 per game — 35.1 catches, 458 yards, 3.1 TDs. That is WR6, 223 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 4 points per game to a ceiling of 9.9, with the median at 6.1. Boom rate 64%, bust rate 33%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 199.8 on consensus and our board has him 223. We rank him 23.2 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
Seattle Seahawks returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing rb1, oc. Sam Darnold at quarterback, Mike Macdonald as head coach, Brian Fleury calling it. The offense projects to 30.4 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 28.4 rushes.
In: Rashid Shaheed (wr2), Emmanuel Henderson Jr (wr6), Levi Wentz (wr7), Jadarian Price (rb1), Emmanuel Wilson (rb3). Out: Rasheed Shaheed (wr2), Kenneth Walker III (rb1), Zach Charbonett (rb2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 3.6%, with a bear case of 1.4% and a bull case of 5.4%.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 27.3% |
| Cooper Kupp | 15.3% |
| AJ Barner | 11.9% |
| Rashid Shaheed | 10.8% |
| Jadarian Price | 9% |
| Emmanuel Henderson Jr | 6.2% |
What the offense looks like: High powered offense that SHOULD be ok without OC Klint Kubiak (could possibly be a concern). Capable of putting up 40 points any game.
Key additions: Extended WR Rashid Shaheed on 3 year deal. Signed RB Emmanuel Wilson from Packers in free agency (HIGHLY CAPABLE BACKUP), Drafted RB Jadarian Price in the 1st round from ND.
Key departures: SuperBowl MVP RB Kenneth Walker III left for Chiefs in free agency. OC Klint Kubiak left to become Raiders HC this offseason.
Notes: RB Price round 1 RB. with Charbonnet recovering from torn ACL. Lose OC Kubiak to Raiders. JSN top dynasty asset (ELITE). Shaheed could see expanded role in 2026 with full offseason with team. Charbonnet has never truly broken out & torn ACL places concern on productivity when back from injury. Signed RB Emmanuel Wilson in free agency & he could really hurt Price production early (this is a real concern). Cooper Kupp is dust & totally cooked. Tory Horton could be a break out candidate in 2026. Darnold needs to be rostered in all formats & decent low end QB1 with a high powered offense.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Sam Darnold returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (28.2 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30.4 att/g; New OC Brian Fleury — pass rate and tempo may shift.
Depth/practice piece (holdover_no_qualifying_multi_year_sample) — slot prior 4.0% baseline.
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: SEA rates 25 against a league average of 23, 2 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +0.6 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | -0.2 · neutral |
| Weeks 12–17 | +1.1 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -9.6 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | +3.9 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +15% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — pedigree-driven (limited evidence). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dontayvion Wicks | 2023 | 8 | 86% | -0.5% |
| Marquez Callaway | 2020 | 4.7 | 75% | +121.1% |
| A.T. Perry | 2023 | 7.6 | 72% | -45% |
| Parker Washington | 2023 | 4.9 | 71% | +42.9% |
| Khalil Shakir | 2023 | 7.1 | 70% | +56% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 1 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2025, round 5, pick 166 by SEA |
| College | Colorado St. |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′3″ |
| Weight | 196 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.41s |
| Vertical | 37.5″ |
His best game was Week 9 against WAS — 20.8 PPR on 4 targets and a 16.7% target share, in a game that finished 38-14. His worst was Week 7 against HOU at 0, on 3 targets, final score 27-19. Across 8 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 3; in the 3 decided by more, 16.7. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 4.7 points per game. He scored 8.14, 73.1% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | 13-17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 54% |
| 2 | PIT | 31-17 | 11.2 | 2 | 4 | 32 | 1 | 13.3% | 40% |
| 3 | NO | 44-13 | 18.2 | 3 | 4 | 32 | 1 | 20% | 49% |
| 4 | ARI | 23-20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 8.3% | 36% |
| 5 | TB | 35-38 | 12.9 | 3 | 4 | 39 | 1 | 11.8% | 49% |
| 6 | JAX | 20-12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.2% | 45% |
| 7 | HOU | 27-19 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10.3% | 39% |
| 9 | WAS | 38-14 | 20.8 | 4 | 4 | 48 | 2 | 16.7% | 73% |
| Receptions | 13 |
| Targets | 22 |
| Receiving yards | 161 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 8.14 |
| Yards per target | 7.32 |
| Catch rate | 59.09% |
| Snap share | 48.13% |
| Target share | 10.57% |
| Air-yards share | 16.89% |
| WOPR | 0.276 |
| RACR | 0.5 |
| Average depth of target | 15.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 9.8 |
| Total YAC | 33 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 121.4 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.28 |
| Red-zone targets | 4 |
| Red-zone target share | 5.1% |
| End-zone target share | 13.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.24 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.76 |
The offense threw it 481 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 35.82% |
| Cooper Kupp | 15.38% |
| A.J. Barner | 14.95% |
| Kenneth Walker | 7.91% |
| Rashid Shaheed | 5.71% |
| Elijah Arroyo | 5.71% |
2 of his 8 games were blowouts, 59.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 19.5 in those and 2.98 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Tory Horton →