Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 4.34 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 191.6, usage worth 4.6.
24 years old · 1 season of experience · 2025 draft class
| SLEEPER | 212.2 |
| ESPN | 170.9 |
| UNDERDOG | 162.5 |
| FFA | 160 |
| Goes around | Round 16, pick 12 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR148 |
| Bye week | 7 |
| ADP standard deviation | 29.2 picks |
Our board has him at 128.8 points, 7.9 per game — 47 catches, 602 yards, 3.6 TDs. That is WR6, 157 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 5.3 points per game to a ceiling of 14.4, with the median at 7.9. Boom rate 82%, bust rate 34%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 191.6 on consensus and our board has him 157. We rank him 34.6 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
locked into 3-WR-set snaps on the Chargers via run-blocking value even before target competition is resolved, contingent WR2 upside if Quentin Johnston misses time
buy · medium conviction · 2026-08Los Angeles Chargers returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing oc. Justin Herbert at quarterback, Jim Harbaugh as head coach, Mike McDaniel calling it. The offense projects to 33.5 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 27 rushes.
In: Brenen Thompson (wr4), Luke Grimm (wr7), Keaton Mitchell (rb2), Charlie Kolar (te2). Out: Keenan Allen (wr3), Tyler Conklin (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 13.3%, with a bear case of 12.1% and a bull case of 15.1% and a full range of 10.9% to 16.8%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Ladd McConkey | 24.2% |
| Quentin Johnston | 18.9% |
| Tre' Harris ← | 13.3% |
| Oronde Gadsden | 10.6% |
| Omarion Hampton | 10% |
| Brenen Thompson | 8.6% |
What the offense looks like: The top targets and back in this offense will be STELLAR fantasy assets in 2026 and beyond. Herbert SHOULD have a killer season in 2026.
Key additions: Joe Alt & Slater are back. This offense should do a complete 180. Joe Alt & Slater return in 2026 from injury & Chargers add Jake Slaughter LG in the 2nd round of 2026 draft. Sign Tyler Biadasz C, and RG Cole Strange. Entire different O ine from later year. Signed RB Keaton Mitchell to 2 year deal. Signed FB Alex Ingold from Miami. Biggest change is teh offensive Genius Mike McDaniel is the new OC.
Key departures: Keenan Allen remains a free agent and is not currently expected back with the Chargers
Notes: Chargers bring in Mike McDaniel as offensvie coordinator who could SUPERCHARGE offense. Herbert ascending as top 7 dynasty QB. Keenan Allen remains a free agent. Ladd & QJ should operate as 1A & 1B with Ladd having more potential. Tre' Harris should operate as WR3 if no one else is brought in. TE Oronde Gadsden could be very good. RB room is complex. Hampton is the presumed starter week 1 with massive potential but Vidal has been very capable as a back up & chargers also signed Keaton Mitchell to 2 year deal in free agency. Question mark people should think about in usage. Thompson round 4.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Justin Herbert returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.5 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.5 att/g; New OC Mike McDaniel — pass rate and tempo may shift.
25 historical comps for WRs age ~22, prior share 9.1%, same team, OC change. Distribution: median 14.1%, p25-p75 [12.5%, 16.5%], tails [10.8%, 18.8%]. Closest comps: Devin Duvernay 2021→2022 (BAL: 9.6%→12.5%); Deonte Harty 2020→2021 (NO: 9.3%→15.1%); Josh Palmer 2021→2022 (LAC: 8.6%→16.5%).
self-anchored 30% to own 9.1% role (1yr), 70% to comp median 14.1%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: LAC rates 24.3 against a league average of 23, 1.3 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -2.5 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -7.8 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | +1.1 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +0.6 · neutral |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Tre Harris study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -33.4% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, WRs recover only 15% of the time (keep falling 85%).
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Lynn Polk | 2024 | 2.3 | 82% | -23.2% |
| John Metchie III | 2023 | 2.3 | 81% | +23.5% |
| Denzel Mims | 2021 | 2.1 | 70% | +9.7% |
| Skyy Moore | 2023 | 4.1 | 70% | -29.4% |
| Adonai Mitchell | 2024 | 3.2 | 70% | +13.9% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 2 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2025, round 2, pick 55 by LAC |
| College | Mississippi |
| Age at draft | 23 |
His best game was Week 16 against DAL — 9.4 PPR on 5 targets and a 17.9% target share, in a game that finished 34-17. His worst was Week 4 against NYG at 0, on 1 targets, final score 18-21. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 14 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 3.3; in the 8 decided by more, 5.4. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 4.6 points per game. He scored 4.34, 6.6% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 27-21 | 2.1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 2.9% | 8% |
| 2 | LV | 20-9 | 5.4 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 | 11.1% | 31% |
| 3 | DEN | 23-20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.2% | 29% |
| 4 | NYG | 18-21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.6% | 19% |
| 6 | MIA | 29-27 | 6.7 | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 13.2% | 83% |
| 7 | IND | 24-38 | 4.3 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 3.7% | 43% |
| 8 | MIN | 37-10 | 8.8 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 8.3% | 59% |
| 9 | TEN | 27-20 | 3.8 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 7.1% | 46% |
| 10 | PIT | 25-10 | 2.4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6.1% | 44% |
| 11 | JAX | 6-35 | 2.2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 4.2% | 52% |
| 13 | LV | 31-14 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 19% | 51% |
| 14 | PHI | 22-19 | 3.1 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 8.7% | 50% |
| 15 | KC | 16-13 | 7.9 | 3 | 5 | 49 | 0 | 19.2% | 85% |
| 16 | DAL | 34-17 | 9.4 | 4 | 5 | 54 | 0 | 17.9% | 45% |
| 17 | HOU | 16-20 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3.2% | 46% |
| 18 | DEN | 3-19 | 4.8 | 2 | 6 | 28 | 0 | 15.8% | 97% |
| Receptions | 30 |
| Targets | 43 |
| Receiving yards | 324 |
| Carries | 2 |
| Rushing yards | 10 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 4.34 |
| Yards per target | 7.53 |
| Catch rate | 69.77% |
| Yards per carry | 5 |
| Snap share | 49.25% |
| Target share | 9.08% |
| Air-yards share | 8.92% |
| WOPR | 0.198 |
| RACR | 0.741 |
| Average depth of target | 7.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.2 |
| Total YAC | 139 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 89.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.96 |
| Red-zone targets | 5 |
| Red-zone target share | 6.2% |
| End-zone target share | 5.7% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.89 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.11 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.05 |
The offense threw it 569 times. He took 7.98% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Keenan Allen | 22.63% |
| Ladd McConkey | 19.67% |
| Quentin Johnston | 15.58% |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 12.8% |
| Tre Harris ← | 7.98% |
| Omarion Hampton | 6.49% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 15 | 37 | 4.31 | 8 | 8.63% |
| Trey Lance | 1 | 6 | 4.8 | 4.67 | 15.8% |
4 of his 16 games were blowouts, 38% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.6 in those and 3.26 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Tre Harris →