Quentin Johnston — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 13.17 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 114, usage worth 11.

24 years old · 3 seasons of experience · 2023 draft class

Draft-room facts

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 175.2 points, 10.7 per game — 58.5 catches, 788 yards, 6.2 TDs. That is WR4, 86 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 7.6 points per game to a ceiling of 16.7, with the median at 10.7. Boom rate 56%, bust rate 29%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

He goes at 114 on consensus and our board has him 86. We rank him 28 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.

The offense he plays in, 2026

Los Angeles Chargers returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing oc. Justin Herbert at quarterback, Jim Harbaugh as head coach, Mike McDaniel calling it. The offense projects to 33.5 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 27 rushes.

In: Brenen Thompson (wr4), Luke Grimm (wr7), Keaton Mitchell (rb2), Charlie Kolar (te2). Out: Keenan Allen (wr3), Tyler Conklin (te2).

His own projected target share for 2026 is 18.9%, with a bear case of 17.3% and a bull case of 20.2% and a full range of 13.8% to 20.7%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.

The projected target split across the offense:

Our written view on this offense in 2026

How the volume number was reached: Same QB Justin Herbert returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.5 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.5 att/g; New OC Mike McDaniel — pass rate and tempo may shift.

How that share projection was built

The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.

Offensive environment: LAC rates 24.3 against a league average of 23, 1.3 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

What happened when he missed time

From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved +47.6% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, WRs crash the following year 40% of the time (hold 60%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 40% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 2 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Availability and volatility

That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · LAC · 13 games

His best game was Week 1 against KC — 24.9 PPR on 7 targets and a 20.6% target share, in a game that finished 27-21. His worst was Week 11 against JAX at 0, on 3 targets, final score 6-35. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 16.1; in the 7 decided by more, 10.7. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 11 points per game. He scored 13.17, 14.6% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.

Production

Role

Efficiency

Scoring position

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:

Who else ate

The offense threw it 569 times. He took 15.58% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 13 games were blowouts, 22.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.65 in those and 16.08 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2024 · LAC · 15 games

His best game was Week 18 against LV — 31.6 PPR on 14 targets and a 40% target share, in a game that finished 34-20. His worst was Week 12 against BAL at 0, on 5 targets, final score 23-30. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.3; in the 8 decided by more, 16.3. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 10.6 points per game. He scored 11.65, 2.7% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 4 against 2.37 expected, a gap of 1.6.

Production

Role

Efficiency

Scoring position

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:

Who else ate

The offense threw it 509 times. He took 18.72% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 15 games were blowouts, 39.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 17.35 in those and 6.3 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2023 · LAC · 17 games

His best game was Week 10 against DET — 13.4 PPR on 4 targets and a 10% target share, in a game that finished 38-41. His worst was Week 6 against DAL at 0, on 2 targets, final score 17-20. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 12 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 4.8; in the 6 decided by more, 6.8. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 6.8 points per game. He scored 5.53, 18.3% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

Production

Role

Efficiency

Scoring position

Who else ate

The offense threw it 632 times. He took 10.93% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 38.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9 in those and 4.85 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.